Bear Essentials

At first glance, it appears the Bears’ 2012 schedule is conducive to a playoff season. Not that you can ever tell in April how well teams will do based on their previous year’s records, but three of the Bears’ first five opponents had double-digit losses last season. The Colts (Week 1) and the Rams (Week 3) were both 2-14 last season, and both those games are at Soldier Field. In Week 5, the Bears get the 5-11 Jaguars in Jacksonville. So, even if they lose on the road in Green Bay in Week 2 and in Dallas in Week 4, the Bears should go into their off week with a 3-2 record, but a victory over the Cowboys and a 4-1 record at the break is do-able.

To no one’s surprise, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell declined to reduce the penalties of Saints head coach Sean Payton, general manager Mickey Loomis and assistant head coach Joe Vitt for their role in the team’s three-year bounty program. The league announced Monday that Payton’s one-year ban will remain intact, as will Loomis’ half-season penalty and Vitt’s six-game suspension. It didn’t help their cause that their appeal, heard last Thursday, came on the same day that an audio clip surfaced of former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, the bounty ringleader, exhorting his players to injure their 49ers opponents in a 2009 playoff game.

With the draft a little more than three weeks away, it’s time to start mocking my draft projections, so here’s my first shot at predicting this year’s Selection Meeting. 1. Colts QB Andrew Luck, Stanford 2. Redskins QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor 3. Vikings OT Matt Kalil, USC 4. Browns RB Trent Richardson, Alabama 5. Buccaneers CB Morris Claiborne, LSU 6. Rams WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State 7. Jaguars DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State 8. Dolphins DT Dontari Poe, Memphis 9. Panthers DL Melvin Ingram, South Carolina 10. Bills OT Riley Rieff, Iowa 11. Chiefs OG David DeCastro, Stanford 12. Seahawks LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College 13. Cardinals LB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama 14. Cowboys OG Cordy Glenn, Georgia 15. Eagles LB Dont'a Hightower, Alabama

The Bears are still looking for another pass-rush threat to complement Julius Peppers, and there’s a good chance that Illinois junior Whitney Mercilus will be available when they pick 19th in the first round. The 6-foot-3 ½-inch, 254-pound Mercilus led the nation with 16 sacks and 9 forced fumbles last season, and he had a Big Ten-best 22 ½ tackles for loss. But, according to Pro Football Weekly’s draft expert Nolan Nawrocki, the Bears shouldn’t draft the one-year wonder, who had a total of 2 sacks in his first two seasons with the Illini. “Personally, I think it’s too much of a reach just based on the tape,”

Judging by the amount of negative e-mail I’ve received regarding my column criticizing the severity of Sean Payton’s punishment for his role in the Saints “bounty” program, I’m obviously in the minority on this one. Point taken. But I still don’t believe that the Saints’ defensive players behaved any differently than defensive players on other teams. It’s a physical game, and the object of playing defense is to hit the player across from you as hard as possible – within the rules.

The Bears finally have the big, game-changing wide receiver they’ve needed in Brandon Marshall. They have a backup quarterback in Jason Campbell who is good enough to start for a lot of NFL teams. By re-signing Israel Idonije, Kellen Davis, Tim Jennings and Craig Steltz they have solidified themselves at defensive end, tight end, cornerback and safety, respectively. They really haven’t upgraded those spots, but they’ve done enough to keep them from being weaknesses next season.

Brandon Marshall arguably does more to close the talent gap between the Bears and their NFC North rivals in Green Bay and Detroit than any other player in the NFL. Not only is Marshall one of the most talented offensive players in the game, he plays a position that was considered the biggest Bears weakness. Marshall might not be the Lions’ Calvin Johnson, but he’s the closest thing to “Megatron” out there. Marshall is exactly what the Bears have lacked for years. He has AVERAGED 95 catches and 1,187 receiving yards over the past five seasons. The consensus around the league is that new G.M. Phil Emery pulled off a heist by giving up only third-round picks in each of the next two drafts.

Every effort will be made by NFL teams to snap up marquee unrestricted free agents like Mario Williams and Vincent Jackson shortly after the market opens at 3 p.m. Tuesday. The Bears have interest in both players and, as they showed two years ago when they swept Julius Peppers off his feet with $84 million, they have the financial wherewithal to get a blockbuster deal done quickly. But the Bears don’t have to get a big-name, big-money player in the first 24 hours to close the talent gap between themselves and the Packers.

Only two Bears are listed in the latest issue of Pro Football Weekly, which features a ranking of the top 100 free agents in advance of the March 13 opening of the market. PFW lists RB Matt Forte at No. 8, and DE Israel Idonije, at No. 76, is the only other Bear on the market. So it shouldn’t be too expensive for the Bears to hold on to their other 13 free agents, or at least the ones they want back. If the Bears want to spend the money to upgrade a wide receiver spot in need of improvement, they should have an abundance of options. Four of PFW’s top 10 free agents are wide receivers, the Steelers’ Mike Wallace (a restricted free agent) is No. 4, followed by the Chargers’ Vincent Jackson (No. 7), the Eagles’ DeSean Jackson (No. 9) and the Chiefs’ Dwayne Bowe (No. 10).

The start of unrestricted free agency is less than two weeks away, and the Bears have 13 players scheduled to hit the market, although we already know RB Matt Forte isn’t going anywhere. In addition, backup RB Kahlil Bell is a restricted free agent, who will probably be back with the team, considering he was more productive than Marion Barber last season. With the tight-lipped atmosphere that surrounds Halas Hall under new G.M. Phil Emery, it’s difficult to get a read on which of their own UFAs the Bears want back, but here’s my list, from top to bottom, of which players are the most important to retain. 1. RB Matt Forte 2. DE Israel Idonije 3. CB-ST Corey Graham 4. TE Kellen Davis 5. DT Amobi Okoye 6. S Craig Steltz 7. RB Kahlil Bell (RFA) 8. CB Tim Jennings