So does this mean the Cubs get Peavy?
It looks now like the Ricketts family has won, at least at this early stage, the bidding to buy the Cubs from the Tribune Co. Neither my pal Crane Kenney, the Cubs’ chairman, nor a Tribco guy, has returned my messages tonight. The Ricketts family, if we may presume they are the winners, must clear a few hurdles before being given the keys to Wrigley Field.
The family must reach agreement with the Trib, which has filed for bankruptcy protection. The creditors’ committee also must give its approval. The final hurdle is Major League Baseball. My old pal Crane said last weekend that Commish Bud Selig is very familiar with all three finalists in the bidding and that the process can be expedited through MLB. Crane said he hoped the new owners could be in place by Opening Day.
The Ricketts bid is reported to be around $900 million. When the dust finally settles, Cubs fans will want to know if this means GM Jim Hendry can finally move ahead in his efforts to obtain pitcher Jake Peavy from the Padres. The new owners may want to make a splash, and if they give Hendry the OK, he’ll no doubt move forward on trying to revive the talks, which “died” at the winter meetings.
Some in the Cubs’ front office seem to like the idea of the Ricketts family owning the Cubs, so things may bode well for the Peavy pursuit.
We’ll talk later about the Trib’s history of owning the Cubs, which began with “Building a New Tradition” for the 1982 season.
Bruce, I'm kind of confused with the whole ownership situation. Would a potential Peavy trade have to wait until it's determined 100% who the owner will be, or would it have to wait until the sale is actually final? I had been under the impression that it was the former, but I read today that it would have to wait until when the sale is final around opening day.
What's the deal?
Ricketts has a long way to go, and therefore, so does any potential Peavy deal. First, Ricketts, must agree on a deal with Sam Zell. I'm sure Zell will try to squeeze Ricketts for more dough. That's why the other two groups have been told to "stand down."
Second, the bankruptcy court must approve. Finally, MLB must approve. That will be the easiest part, and it probably won't happen until close to Opening Day. That's probably the best chance of getting anything done "early" because no one is in position now to OK any extra expenditures.
Let's not forget about the Padres. They're the other part of this equation. Alderson is probably right in saying that the "easiest" shot at getting something done was at the winter meetings.
We're al looking at this from afar, so we don't know what's truly going on. So my answer to you would be that this is a later-rather-than-sooner deal.
Look at these two lineups and rotations........
1. Roberts 1. Soriano
2. Theriot 2. Theriot
3. Ramirez 3. Lee---Why? I'll never know.
4. Bradley VS 4. Bradley
5. Soriano 5. Ramirez
6. Lee 6. Soto
7. Soto 7. Fontenot/Miles
8. Fukudome 8. Fukudome
with a rotation
1. Zambrano 1. Zambrano
2. Dempster 2. Peavy
3. Lilly 3. Dempster
4. Wolf 4. Lilly
5. Harden/Marshall 5. Harden/Marshall
This is all you can come up with after the entire off season of bs? Really? The Trib sold the Cubs. The baseless, weak Cubs stories you get from Yahoo don't work anymore.
Anytime you can link a baseless/weak Cubs story from yahoo to me, let me know.
I'm sure you're a real winner watching cinemax at 3 am and throwing out verbal assaults.
..where's the love?
Well, I am cautiously excited. I will wait until this deal goes through, as I am sure Zell will try everything in his power to milk every penny out of Ricketts. This is far from over.
Great post on Kenney. Why is it that every new Cubs president/face feels the need to be "the guy"? There was McDonaugh in Cinci 2 years ago spraying himself down with champagne. There is Kenney talking like it's all thanks to him that the Cubs are competitive. Please. Just go away. Nobody wants to hear from these camera --ores at all. The only guy who should be that way is Hendry, as this is his puzzle that he put together. Go back to selling beanie babies, or spraying down your office with holy water.
Now the dilema the Cubs face is are they better off with a Randy Wolf and Roberts vs Jake Peavy? Peavy is a top talent and contrary to belief he was second in the past 4 years in the quality start department, so it's just not all about Petco Park.
the addition of Roberts would be huge. A true leadoff man, a lefty, a decent fielder, and a perfect scrappy/speedy guy that would enable Piniella to drop Soriano down in the order. Who, by the way, said he would be up for it as long as it happened in spring training to give him time to adjust to his new role.
Then you have Peavy. The most concering things for me are Harden's shoulder, and Zambrano. The fact that this lazy fat @ss hasn't worked out extra to help strengthen his arm makes me very concerned. Dempster had one great year, and that was due to his ridiculous in season training. Will I hear about Dempster running laps around ballparks on his off days? Doubtful. So the addition of Peavy migth allow the Cubs to easily rest or skip starts for Zambrano, and harden to make sure they are ready to go come October without missing a step. A rotation of Zambrano, Peavy, Dempster, and Harden/Lilly is ridiculous come playoff time. As long as the Cubs don't boot the ball around, or hit .180 as a team, they could ride that for awhile.
Harden obviously has some sort of small tear that isn't required to be fixed via surgery that he has to pitch through and be monitored without being over used. Thus the statement of 25 starts by Piniella at the convention. He stated on tsn.ca that his arm isn't "100 percent", and he just began throwing....
Interesting dilema for Hendry. Both moves would be HUGE for the Cubs, but until this whole Zell/Ricketts thing is officially done, I am not going to get my hopes up.
Harden is a concern and it explains Hendry's desire to add another starter, but the need to acquire Peavy is certainly a reach considering money and talent needed to procure him. If it is Piniella's desire to keep Marshall as a swing-man, a less expensive FA starter should be acquired.
Health is a concern with every pitcher and Zambrano even gives us a scare sometimes but Peavy only logged about 170 innings last year and his splits away from Petco Park are nothing to write home about either. Even Ben Sheets pitched more innings than Peavy last year. Now there is no doubt when Peavy is on he's a stud but let me ask you this, if Harden wasn't a china doll, would you think the Cubs most pressing need is to add another ace to the rotation?
Listen, I'm all for the Cubs spending like the Yankees, but that isn't going to happen and quality starters are available that are FA's that won't take 5 years and $60+M to sign that can bridge the gap so a youngster or two to develop for the future. Wolf and Looper along with Sheets, all could be had for a significantly less money and years commitment.
As I've pointed out, Hendry is as "reactive" a GM as I've seen. If he feels the bullpen has burned him, he tries to go out and fix it (Howry and Eyre). If he and Lou feel they didn't have enough "left-hand" hitting, he tries to fix it (this off-season). And the Wood and Prior injuries have left Hendry feeling that he can't have enough pitching. You're seeing that with the Peavy pursuit. And you're right: He might not need to surrender a king's ransom to get the pitching he needs.
He has not been on their radar all winter long. Let's remember that the Cubs had a package in place last year that should have pleased the Orioles, and it didn't. And the same people are still there running things in Baltimore. There is still a chance Roberts could sign long term in Baltimore, and it might behoove him to do so with the market being so soft. If you take on Peavy, still a big if, the money isn't there for Roberts.
Another poster suggested Harden and Fontenot for Roberts. It's all great fun for all of us to sit here and say what two teams will do or ought to do. Andy MacPhail, under orders from Peter Angelos (an attorney quite familiar with worker injuries, not to mention getting burned by the Xavier Hernandez situation) is not about to take on a pitcher with a history of arm troubles for Brian Roberts, a player still beloved by the owners. When making a deal of consequence, the Orioles are still one of the most difficult teams with which to deal.
Steve Rain, you are right about this being far from over, although I do suspect Ricketts will get the team in the end. All Ricketts has won is the right to negotiate exclusively. As my old pal Crane said last weekend, the other bidders will be instructed to "stand down" while the Trib tries to squeeze Ricketts a little more.
Should be interesting.
I threw out that Roberts thing as a justification if they are going to give up a ton of prospects for Peavy if their investment return would be greater with Roberts.
If Roberts continues to decline extension offers, baltimore may be forced to deal him. Not sure if the Cubs would have the pieces necessary, but he would be a huge addition. The guy wants to play for a winner, and baring a miracle it isn't happening in Baltimore.
Everyone needs to take a breath, because I just don't see this Peavy thing getting done until Zell milks every last drop out of the Cubs. When that happen.....god only knows. Let the circus begin.....again.
Steve Rain
What is your opinion of R Cedeno, particularly what he may project to be as far as hitting?
Well I see there are some dual hockey and Cub fans. Oak Lawn guy too? I will stick almost entirely to hockey posts. Too bad The Old Barn restaurant in Burbank/Oak Lawn closed -- always wanted to go back. Wondering if Steve or anyone will show up at Billy Goat on a sunday matinee. Steve you once left your ph number, but I would never infringe on someone's privacy and it was over I'm sure a long forgotten spate w/ another good post person. Maybe a Wolves game, although I'm not too excited about them or Iceogs. The Cubs is the team with the most promise...but pitching will make or break your post season success. The more arms the better...the more susceptible to injury on the staff, the more you worry. Can't get away from that thought.
We should. I'll be up for a pregame beer or two in March. I usually hang out at the Bud Select bar at the UC, but I can venture down to the tavern.
To answer your question, I like Cedeno. I think he has a ton of talent, but again this may be a situation where a change of scenery may do him well.
If I attend any games before the sunday matinees begin in March, I'll see if I can locate you in the Bud Select bar at the UC -- I'll just go up and ask people -- I'm not shy. Otherwise, I will leave a post for anyone who would like to meet at Billy Goat for some of the sunday afternoon contests.
First of all, regarding Peavy.....
The Padre owners have instructed Towers to observe a budget not to exceed $40M for the coming year. The prospective new owner has said that he will NOT be interfering with what present ownership wants to do, and the new owner will not have control of the team for years, since it is a gradual purchase arrangement. There has been NO change of heart by ownership, and the Pads have needs and are still about $5M OVER budget. By the way, the Cubs package will fill most of those "needs"!
I read Alderson completely different, and say that most of what he is saying is PURE posturing. Why? Because we already know the above, plus we know that Towers has already made many statements, ultimatums, deadlines, etc and has had to back off of every single one of them because they are only posturing. We also know from statements made after the Winter Meetings that Hendry was upset about Towers taking too much of the negotiations public, and Towers responded by saying something to the effect that "if and when the deal is put back together, no one would know until it is done".
Hendry has made move after move to secure pitching that is Major League ready or nearly so, and some, if not all of it, are pitchers known to be of specific interest by Towers. He (Jim) would not have made these moves, especially DeRo, unless he was assured that he could still have Peavy when he "beefed up" the package going to the Pads.
Back to Alderson...since Towers is quiet (or at least as quiet as Towers can be), Alderson is doing the talking, and everything he is saying is smoke to try and obscure what has become rather obvious, and posturing to support Towers and to the extent possible, to pump up the package offered by Hendry.
The sticking point presently IS the 2010 budget due to large increases in certain players contracts for that year, including Peavy's; and The ONLY thing holding up this deal is Jim getting whatever assurance he needs from the Ricketts family to go ahead on it. Now that may not be quite as simple as it sounds, because I'm certain that the Ricketts would like to be just a little "further down the track" on this purchase agreement, so they can be a little more comfortable about giving the nod to Hendry. That could be a week or a month, but I expect the go ahead to be given by the end of the month, which not so coincidentally, is within the time frame Alderson gave.
As for ROBERTS.....The current situation is that MacPhail has tried and failed to get an extension agreement with Roberts. It should be no surprise, as Roberts said last year that he didn't want to spend the best part of his remaining career waiting on the O's to became competitive again. He is not dumb. He knows full well that in that division it will take longer than MacPhail or anyone thinks. He will wait for a trade or free agency.
Robert's trade value is less now than it was last year, and if MacPhail doesn't move him pretty soon, he won't get anywhere close to value in return. His best hope for value is by trading Roberts to the Cubs, because he knows the character of Hendry insofar as the point that Jim wants deals to be good for both teams, and will therefore provide an honest package value in return.
From Hendry's point of view, he knows the team needs Roberts, or someone as good and he also knows that to obtain Peavy & Roberts and stay on budget, he will have to trade a package that is nearly equal to Roberts 09 salary ($8M). When Peavy is added the Cubs will be one starter long, but a package of Fontenot (about 1/2$M) and Harden ($7M) is close to equaling Roberts salary, and if one of the relief pitchers is also thrown into the deal it would be even closer or the Cubs might actually save a 1/2$M or so.
Watch for it, and you will see how each move lines up and how the rhetoric does too!
Actually, the increases in payroll from 2009 to 2010 aren't that large. Adding together the increases for Soriano, Ramirez, Lee, Fukudome, Bradley, Miles, Zambrano, and Dempster, the total increase is $12.725M. There would of course, be small increases in addition to that, for the lower salaried players under team control. Peavy's salary would increase by $7M, so the increase would still be a bit less than $20M. That being said, Harden will be in the final year of his contract this year, so that would negate the increase in Peavy's salary. And the $12.725M increase could be offset by dealing either Lee ($13M) or possibly Lilly ($12M) prior to 2010, the final year in each player's contract. This season will allow the Cubs to evaluate Hoffpauir as a potential replacement for Derek Lee, and guys like Samardzija and Marshall and Guzman as possible replacements for Harden and Lilly in the starting rotation. As for 2009, the Cubs have already saved $5M this year from trading DeRosa and another $5.5M from exchanging Marquis for Vizcaino. That $10.5M would cover the salary of Peavy or Brian Roberts, both of which will make $8M this year. It's a shame that Hendry would not part with Pie a year ago and that was, according to a quote by a member of the Orioles organization, the reason why the deal for Brian Roberts fell thru. It sure would be wonderful to have Roberts leading off for the Cubs with Soriano dropping down to the five or six slot with the opportunity to drive in more runs with all the homers he delivers.
Bruce, has there been any discussion or interest expressed by Hendry in adding a lefty for the bullpen who can dominate lefty hitters? With Marshall being used as a swingman and in long relief, that leaves Cotts as the only other LH option and he can't be relied upon. Dennys Reyes would be an outstanding option and is supposedly looking for two years at around $4/yr. Other than Peavy, what are the chances of resurrecting the Brian Roberts trade talks, and any further word about signing Rich Aurilia? Too bad DeRosa was already dealt, as I believe he would have been a nice main component of a Roberts trade.
At this point, the Cubs are about maxed-out bugdet-wise, and they've not talked all winter about another lefty. Reyes is a nice option, but he doesnt fit their payroll structure now. With Roberts, the Cubs haven't been in pursuit this winter. The Orioles seem serious about signing him to an extension, and with the market soft, Roberts may be inclined to take it. Rich Aurilia is still on the radar.
Best move: Hiring Dallas Green
Worst move: Firing Dallas Green
Runner up to biggest bonehead move (if not tied with): Allowing Larry Himes to screw up the Greg Maddux talks
BearsCubs, I thought I was the only Cub fan who thought this move doomed the franchise for years. Green was tough on his pitchers but boy he knew how to find talent. The minor league system at that time was pretty strong and Green drafts produced Grace, Maddux, Palmeiro among others. Injuries or no I feel the Cubs would have come back quicker and stronger if he had stayed. (Yeah I know they won the division in '89 but the influx of talent dropped off dramatically after that.)
Worse yet was the way they fired him: he wanted to name Vukovich the manager, got into some disagreement with Grenesko the day of the hire, offered to manage the club himself and then was told he was out.
"I thought I was the only Cub fan who thought this move doomed the franchise for years."
Truer words were never spoken, OakLawnGuy. From Frey to Himes to MacPhail...ugh.
You're absolutely right. Green tells it that the Tribune Co. "learned the lingo" (of baseball) and then figured it could live without him. He helped modernize the park, fought for lights and, as you point out, brought in playing talent. It was the Trib's worst move, setting the stage for the eventual departure of Maddux.
Bruce, could you give any details on how Jim might go aobut this? I mean, I'm not sure I understand what exactly has to happen. When exactly can Jim ask/get permission (or whatever you want to call it) from Ricketts to add Peavy's salary? Can he do that right now, or do other things still have to happen before Hendry gets that?
I ask because we keep hearing quotes from Alderson about this dealdine he is giving and that he is "95 percent sure" that Peavy iwll be with the Padres on opening day..... even going as far as saying it would take a miracle for something to happen. He said on the radio that February first would be the latest this drags on and if nothing has happened by then, he'll take Peavy off the market.
Is this just posturing, and was the February 1st deadline made with Hendry and the Cubs in mind, knowing that the owner would be found before that with enough time to negotiate a Peavy deal?
All of the prospective ownership groups, I'm sure, were apprised of the Peavy situation. I don't have any way of knowing what their response would be. I'm sure Jim can go to the Ricketts group now or at any time to re-visit the situation. There are several parts to this equation: The Cubs, Peavy (who has the no-trade), the Padres baseball people and, finally, Padres ownership. If the current owner says "move him," the baseball people (Towers and even Alderson) will have no choice but to move him. As far as "posturing" goes, Alderson doesn't strike me as a "posturing" type guy, just as Hendry isn't. I believe he set these "deadlines" in fairness to the player (who wants to know where he's going to be) and to his baseball staff.
Peavy and the Cubs or any other club interested in Peavy that he will consent to are in the drivers seat right now. The Padres if they didn't understand this before, certainly must now. I'm sure the Padre rumblings about Peavy being on the roster opening day means they have come to their senses and realize they will max their return for him by waiting until the trading deadline. Any team that still has concerns about their rotation will be heightened by then and that will be to the Padres benefit. I'm pretty sure Giles was signed with this intention as well and it goes a long way to understand the Padres asking for the moon at the winter meetings for Peavy.
Hoops concerns are valid, but adding Peavy to the rotation would easily make the Cubs rotation the best in baseball, and honestly any pitcher is an injury risk. It seems there is no rhyme or reason for injuries. I remember when Prior came up, people commented that he had the best mechanics of any pitcher in awhile.
Bruce, do you see Ricketts increasing payroll for the team for 2009? I love his statement saying that his goal is to make the Cubs a consistent championship contender, but does that mean the Hendry may be given the ability to sign other free agent that he though he couldn't fit under the budget prior to this news?
I don't know what the new owners will do with payroll. It's possible they will increase it for 2009, maybe as a gesture that they're indeed serious about winning. Hendry, however, has not been operating under the assumption this would happen.
Bruce,
My understanding is that the payroll issue with Peavy has nothing to do with 2009 (there is still room to add his $11M) or 2011 and 2012 (when Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly will be off the books). 2010 is when the money seems tight. Is that how you are seeing it?
Also, with the 5 pitchers Hendry got in the DeRosa and Pie deals plus an extra infielder like Ronny Cedeno with no position and no minor league options, do you think it's possible Hendry could be targeting another pitcher other than Peavy?
I like Peavy, but his mechanics scare me. Maybe I'm still gun-shy living through the Prior and Wood era.
Hoops
I see it as you do for this year and the coming years. Yes, Hendry is looking at several options for pitching. I don't know if I'd rush into this Peavy thing.
Bruce, thanks for the input on the Cubs and their interest in adding a lefty for the bullpen. Personally, I don't see the point in adding a Braden Looper or Randy Wolf to the rotation. They would end up spending what they saved by trading Marquis and DeRosa, and I'd rather see Sean Marshall get his chance, with Samardzija sent to AAA to work on developing another pitch or two. Marshall has gotten better each year, including an ERA in the upper three's in each of the past two seasons. He'll most likely be just as good or better than the mediocre starters that remain on the free agent market. I'd like to see Hendry sign Dennys Reyes and then trade some of the righthanded reliever surplus in a package for Brian Roberts. I tend to agree with you about Jake Peavy, because I think he would mean taking on a large contract for an injury concern.
on many teams is usually filled with a youngster and Marshall is more than competent to fill that role. Hell he is probably good enough for the 4 slot in the rotation. With this is mind and Harden's health concerns, Harden should be slotted in the 5th slot in the rotation to afford Piniella the opportunity to skip his spot while not disrupting the entire rotation. Problem is, we just don't even know if Harden will be ready for opening day.
As far as the bullpen goes, it's certainly weaker than last year and a LHRP should've been signed already. The Cubs don't need Marshall to be a long man, they need him in the rotation. This balances out the rotation with another LHSP and let's face it, the Cubs have any number of youngsters that the Cubs hope are future starters, to be long men out of the bullpen. A LH specialist in the bullpen is a far greater need than having a LH swingman for goodness sake.
I fully agree about signing a LH specialist. My top pick would be Dennys Reyes. He totally dominates LH hitters. After that, I'd go with Brian Shouse or Joe Biemel, but I'd get a good offer out to Reyes quickly and sign him before someone else does. As far as Marshall being given the 5th starter job, he's plenty good enough. The only thing is, if he's the fifth starter and Harden or another SP suffers an injury, then what do you do? Samardzija isn't ready, and would be better served to be a starter in AAA to develop at least one more pitch. And if they have to move Gaudin or Guzman into the rotation if Harden goes down and Marshall is already a starter, it hurts the bullpen. One other thing, it really doesn't matter if you make Harden the fifth starter, as far as skipping his spot goes. You could still skip over him for a start regardless of which spot he is holding down. The best bet IMO would be to put him between your two SP's who typically go the deepest into games, because while Harden is the best Cub starter when he's out there on the mound, he throws so many pitches per inning recording strikeouts that the team is lucky to get five or six innings out of him. So you put him between Zambrano and Dempster so you don't burn up the bullpen on consecutive days. I think that Hendry would be smart to get another top flight SP. Doing so would not only provide depth, but would also give the team a dominant 1-2-3 punch in the post season, and allow Lou to use Dempster in the bullpen. Peavy would fit the bill of course, and another option would be to sign Ben Sheets, another ace when he's on the mound.