Soriano in the middle? Seriously?
MESA, Ariz. _ The biggest news items of the day were Lou saying that Micah Hoffpauir has a bench job to lose and that Alfonso Soriano might find himself in the middle of the lineup on some days this year:
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=272476
Soriano in the "middle" would give the Cubs an interesting heart of the order. You'd have Soriano, Lee, Ramirez and Bradley. Lou could keep Lee third, hit Bradley fourth, Ramirez fifth and Soriano sixth. Or he could move Ramirez up to third, followed by Bradley, Lee and Soriano. Or Bradley, Soriano and Lee.
There are abilities to juggle here and feelings to consider. What's Soriano's comfort level going to be when he's not in the leadoff spot? He did tell Lou at the convention that he'd hit down in the order. When I asked Soriano about it back then, he said all he asks is for some time to get used to it. And what of Lee? His power numbers dropped again last year, and there are those who think he should not hit third. Would Lou do that? We'll find out.
When Soriano hits down in the order, the leadoff spot becomes an issue. Lou sited Theriot, Fontenot, Miles and even Fukudome as possible leadoff men.
Theriot had an OBP of .387 last year but he was only 22 of 35 in stolen-base attempts, far below the percentage that makes the reward worth the risk. Miles, who figures to spell Theriot and Fontenot in the middle infield, had a .355 OBP for the Cardinals last year, well above his career mark of .329. Fontenot had a nice .395 OBP. Fukudome, who is in Japan preparing for the WBC, came in at .359 after being around .400 early in the year.
With players coming and going this spring with the WBC, Lou will have plenty of chances to use a variety of lineups. There will be plenty of opportunities for Lou to change his mind, and he'll use all of those opportunities.
One sight seen today: Near the end of the Cubs' workout today, a young fan yelled out to Milton Bradley. "Milton, can you sign?" Bradley looked around and said, "Where is he?" He then went over and signed autographs.
Reliever Luis Vizcaino still hasn't made it. He's from the Dominican Republic and apparently is having visa problems.
Bruce, I am sure you will be doing predictions as opening day approaches, but can
you add any thoughts on the division race at this time. I hear some publications have the Cubs winning the division again, but where do the division challenges come from. Has Milwaukee or anybody else gotten significantly better in the offseason, I know folks are tired of just winning the division after the last two years, and going 0-3 in the post season, but it is the first step in making the post season and having a shot at the WS.
...just how serious Lou is about dropping Soriano in the lineup. He's been so adamant about leaving him in the leadoff spot for so long that part of me thinks he made that statement just to get people off his back re: this long-standing, beaten-like-an-old-rug issue.
I agree with you, Bruce, about both Theriot and Miles. Theriot doesn't run well enough to be a truly effective leadoff hitter. Also, he saw only 3.77 pitches per plate appearance last season. Compare that to "freeswinger" Alfonso Soriano, who saw 3.73. Yeah, Theriot beat him, but not by much (.04). And Miles' relatively high OBP last season still just scratches the bare minimum of what you'd want from a leadoff guy and doesn't change the fact that he has .329 career OBP. In addition, Miles has little to no speed. He stole three bags in only six attempts last season.
If Lou makes good on his threat to drop Soriano in the lineup, I think he should consider using Fukudome and Reed Johnson as platoon leadoff hitters. (Dome vs. RHP, Johnson vs. LHP, of course.) Fukudome ranked No. 1 among starting right fielders in pitches seen per plate appearance last season (4.29) and, despite his last-half-of-the-season swoon, still turned in a .359 OBP. He's not a huge steal threat, but he's a smart runner and bunts well. Reed Johnson has a remarkable .376 career OBP vs. LHP. He saw only 3.75 P/PA last season, so he's similiar to Theriot in that sense. But at least RJ has some pop.
I'd submit lineups as follows:
Vs. RHP
1. Fukudome CF
2. DLee 1B
3. Bradley RF
4. Aramis 3B
5. Soriano LF
6. Fontenot 2B
7. Soto C
8. Theriot SS
9. Pitcher
vs. LHP
1. Johnson CF
2. Miles 2B
3. Aramis 3B
4. Bradley RF
5. Soriano LF
6. DLee 1B
7. Soto C
8. Theriot SS
9. Pitcher
I'm not crazy about batting Miles second, as I'm not really sold on him as anything more than a utility guy. But, from what I understand, he is a good contact hitter, so he could potentially move the leadoff man over - especially batting lefty. Oh, and obviously, this plan depends on Fukudome rebounding to show some sort of consistency at the plate.
I expect Miles to be used to rest the Cajun connection, not to platoon. Piniella will look at the match ups and decide when Miles should be used.
You certainly don't want to take Fontenot out of the lineup just because he is facing a lefty. His OPB last year was OVER 400 against lefties.
As for Theriot's ability to steal bases, last year's stats were distorted because Lou made a big deal LAST Spring about stealing 3rd. It's true that it is easier, but still there is a technique to it and Theriot never developed that technique but kept trying anyway. If Lou hadn't made such an issue of it, Theriot would likely not have tried so hard or so often, and his stats would have looked MUCH better. The whole team seems to "not listen", and if they are, they certainly are not learning how to steal bases. If Dernier can't get the point across, they need to bring in someone else!
I don't have a problem batting the CF platoon 2nd, but ONLY if Fukudome is hitting and getting on like he was in April of last year. Otherwise they should hit 8th.
Fontenot hit leadoff a lot in the minors, but that doesn't always translate to the majors. I'm sure Lou will find out in Mesa. If he can that would be OK because I really like Theriot's effectiveness hitting second.
Choosing a leadoff hitter isn't always about his stats alone. How moving the guy into the leadoff role affects the rest of the lineup has to be considered, and his style of hitting, his attitude toward the game must be considerd as well. But if I were to choose a leadoff hitter from amongst those that the Cubs have available, without regard to the other factors, it would be Theriot with Fontenot or Miles hitting 2nd, or Fontenot with Theriot or Miles hitting 2nd.
I would really like to have Bradley hitting 3rd, but the Cubs don't have enough good LH bats in the lineup to do that and keep a good balance. Inserting Bradley at #4 is about as good as it could be under the present roster. With the CF platoon hitting 8th that would only leave 3 RH hitters back to back to back instead of 4.
Lee has to move down, not up, in the order. His power has continued to decline and because of his height and swing, he hits into FAR, FAR too many ground ball DPs, to hit high in the order.
Got a new blog up today. The key players don't seem to mind Lou's out-loud thinking. As you say, Miles is best used as a utility guy, and that's been the plan since they got him.
Not only would Miles be a switch-hitting option off the bench, giving the opposition a tougher match regardless of whether they bring in a lefty or a righty, but Fontenot is probably a better defender and certainly a better hitter with more power. But then Lou get's quoted with the following statement taken from the Cubs website:
On Thursday, Piniella said the lineup he's leaning toward is Soriano, Aaron Miles, Derrek Lee, Milton Bradley, Aramis Ramirez, Kosuke Fukudome, Geovany Soto and Ryan Theriot.
"That seems like a real nice lineup to me," Piniella said. "Left, right, left, right -- we have some balance, we have some speed.
I'd go with:
Fontenot (Miles)
Theriot
Ramirez
Bradley
Soriano
Lee
Soto
Fukudome (Johnson)
Easier said than done.
I like that lineup, except that I would switch Bradley and Ramirez around to take advantage of Bradley's OBP a bit more. Nice of Soriano to agree to move down in the lineup, with the stipulation that he's left in whatever spot Lou decides to put him. Who's running the show there Sammy junior?
I agree right down the line until I got to Soriano & Lee. These two ought to be reversed.
In general this should be done because Lee has a much better career OBP, and OBP is a key factor for the 5th spot. In that spot, the hitter has to protect the cleanup hitter, but he also is a set up guy for the bottom half of the lineup.
More specifically, in the 6th slot Soriano hits within one point of his career leadoff average, and has his 2nd best career slugging percentage.
On the other hand, Lee, who is much more flexible as a hitter, shows little difference between hitting 5th or 6th, except that he has been much more productive stealing bases in the 5 slot. The latter goes to fulfilling that "set up" role I mentioned above.
That would make the lineup as productive as possible. Now the question is: Just how much egos will prevent that from happening.
Hoops,
I agree; easier said than done. Asking Lee to move to the 6 hole is equivalent to asking Sosa to move down about 4-5 years ago and the fiasco that surrounded that. Granted, Lee seems to be a higher character, lower ego type than his Samminess, but I still think the stigma of attempting a move like that is there.
I sure do like the sound of Soriano moving down into an RBI spot and turning several of those solo shots into homers with runners on base. I'd like to see Fontenot, Theriot, Bradley, Ramirez, Soriano, Lee, Soto, and Fukudome. That would break up the lefties and get the higher OBP guys at the top of the lineup. I don't like Lee batting after Theriot since the Riot is a BB and singles hitter and Lee hits the ball on the ground too often. We saw way too many groundball double plays rapped into by Lee last year. Ramirez would also work great behind Theriot since Aramis hits flyballs considerably more often than Lee or Bradley, but it's probably a wash as best by not having Bradley's higher OBP in front of Ramirez. The cajun connection at the top could be the greatest thing since the daily double of Dernier and Sandberg.
I agree, if this is an all year move. It seems that Soriano wants to hit in one spot, and I can understand that.
Bruce--any word if the Cubs will bring or have a base stealing teacher who can help Theriot improve his percentages? For as fast as he is, it seems odd that he gets gunned down that often.
I'm not sure they'll do this per se, but Bob Dernier usually makes spring-training experiences.