Early Sunday musings
TUCSON _ If you're doing your lineup dreaming a little early today, we got it:
Gathright, CF
Theriot, SS
Hoffpauir, LF
Fox, 1B
Fontenot, 2B
Deeds, RF
German, 3B
Hill, C
Harden, P
Yes, it's a Tucson lineup, which means many of the regulars aren't coming down here. It'll be Harden's second start, and Lou said yesterday he'll be fully ready to pitch the fourth game of the regular season.
I came away from yesterday thinking Kevin Gregg clearly has the inside track on the closer's job. I also think that's the right decision. Gregg has been more consistent down here, and Lou can always sell it to Carlos Marmol by telling him the eighth-inning role is highly important these days and that he'll have his chances to close.
More later. Looks like a great day for a game.
Bruce....
It's not too early to ask: What will the Cubs do with Fukudome? And I don't mean platoon him in CF! I doubt very much if he will show enough, even in the balance of Spring Training, to warrant keeping him.
I hope he has some secret plan to hit Major League pitching this year, but I have seen no indication in the so-called "classic", that he has solved his hitting problems. He may be stronger, but he remains over-matched, even against the WBC pitchers, not all of which are even AAA caliber pitchers.
I see little, if any, change in his swing & he even says that he's going to do "what is comfortable" (meaning familiar) for him, and that will not help the Cubs. In the 2 hole, he can only bunt so often, and can only sacrifice when Soriano gets on base. In the 8th spot, he just widens the dead spot at the bottom of the order. He can play late inning D, but if he can't hit when he gets 4 or 5 ABs per game, how will he be any good at all as a pinch hitter? In fact, he will be absolute dead weight on the roster.
Do you think he will accept a AAA assignment as the current highest paid "bust", or will his false pride keep him from doing that? And I say "false pride" because he has shown little to have any real pride in!
Do you see the Cubs trying to buy him out of his contract to make a roster spot for the other infielder or the 12th pitcher or what?
If the Cubs were to try to buy Fukudome out, it wouldn't come unless he has another bad season or gets off to a horrendous start. They're committed to him in the short run; they feel they can give him the benefit of the doubt. But they're not thinking in terms that drastic just yet.
He is ALREADY off to a horrible start, and it isn't going to get better any time soon. In the meantime, the Cubs have to carry him and either carry 11 pitchers to get the other infielder they need, or let Gathright go, and with him the LH late inning OF or that late inning runner that could make the difference late in games.
The sooner Jim recognizes and accepts the error in signing him, the sooner this team will "come together" and move forward!
Bruce-
Another idea that's come from the sabermetric angle regarding bullpens is that a team should use the reliever with the best stuff (likely Marmol) in the "highest leverage" situations, which often come in the 7th or 8th inning when there are men on base. Closers can be created from quality arms, as saber-folks tend to see the save statistic as overrated because the 9th inning isn't always the highest leverage situation (although it can become high leverage quickly if the pitcher isn't "on"). In this sense, it seems that Gregg is a great choice for closer- he has good stuff, and experience in the role. Marmol can come in and get multiple K's if needed with men on base. It seems that Piniella gets this and likes using him in these situations. This article at Hardball Times discusses Marmol and using him in high-leverage situations: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-carlos-mar...
It was written during his mid-season slump last year, and although the article speculated he wouldn't return to form, it seems he did.
Thanks for all the info you pass along, and for being one of the few Cubs reporters who's open to new ways of looking at/undertanding the game.
I enjoy the sabermetrics aspect. I've been pushed in that direction by a lot of readers like you. I'll take a look at that link.
Hoffpauir a monster 3-run homer to center in the top of 3. I think he's got the team made. Harden was just pulled with two outs in the bottom of 3. He's thrown 26 pitches, 12 for strikes, this inning and 48 pitches for the game. He threw 16 pitches, 12 for strikes, in the first; and 6 pitches, 5 for strikes, in the second. May have tired.
I really like this guy.. I hope he's taking extra fielding practice to try to sharpen his skills. Hopefully this guy becomes a monster for the Cubs.
I think that's the right move. Gregg is more weathered in the closer's role and Carlos usually has the 8th locked down. Hopefully Lou sells it to Carlos in the right frame and we move on...