'Things are going to turn out all right'
Lou seemed a little less cranky today than recently. In fact, he even flashed a little optimism when he was told the season is almost one-third of the way along.
"I think things are going to turn out all right here, I really do," he said.
Lou says he sees the batting averages heading upward on some of his key players and that the bullpen is taking shape. More on that pen in a minute or so.
Today's lineup:
Soriano, LF
Theriot, SS
Bradley, RF
Lee, 1B
Johnson, CF
Soto, C
Scales, 2B
Fontenot, 3B
Marshall, P
As for Marshall, Lou confirmed that he'll head to the bullpen once Rich Harden comes off the DL. Lou says that gives him an experienced lefty in the pen. That, of course, means Randy Wells has found a "permanent" home in the rotation.
Now for that pen. Awhile back, I blogged that the Cubs were carrying 12 pitchers but using only 11 without benefit of the extra position player. That's because they weren't using Rule 5 guy David Patton at all. You can almost argue that the Cubs are using a 10-man pitching staff now because they haven't used rookie lefty Jason Waddell since bringing him up last Wednesday.
Lou needs to be right about "putting together a nice little pen," because a lot of today's situation has come about because of Lou's doing. He never warmed to lefty Scott "Stevie" Eyre, and the Cubs traded him away last year, only to watch Eyre get a World Series ring with the Phillies. Lou also seemed to have little use for the largely reliable Michael Wuertz, who is off to a stellar start with Oakland. As longtime reader mlp pointed out the other day, the Cubs have released outfielder Richie Robnett, one of the players the Cubs got for Wuertz. They traded the other player, meaning they're left with nothing for Wuertz. They do save $1.1 million in salary, but ol' Wuertzy might look pretty good in that pen long about now.
Here is how the ex-Cubs relievers were doing heading into today:
Wuertz
2-1 record
1.93 ERA
2 saves in 2 chances
0.90 WHIP (Wow)
Bob Howry
0-2 record
3.79 ERA
0 saves in 2 chances
1.37 WHIP
Eyre
0-1 record
3.09 ERA
0 saves in 0 chances
1.37 WHIP
Kerry Wood
1-2 record
6.35 ERA
8 saves in 10 chances
1.65 WHIP
In other news, Ryan Freel was packing up for a morning flight to Arizona, where he'll begin rehabbing his hammy.
Another cool night with the wind blowing in.
We hang on to Woody and Prior for years without getting much back in return. We learn our lesson and cut Rich Hill before we head down the same road, and now he looks like a Cy Young Award winner!!!!
Bruce, Has anyone suggested trying Lee out at 3rd until Ramirez gets back. It seems alot of times elder thirdbasemen that can still hit get moved to first to extend thier careers, so it shouldn't be THAT difficult for a steller defender like Lee to make the change, and it would open a position for Hoffpauir to play everyday.
Granted, I haven't been watching every game, but when did Soriano bang up his knee? IF it was doing his assinine hop, somebody needs to stop that crap ASAP.
Great article Bruce. Glad to see the core of our team is stepping up to replace A-ram. I'm beginning to wonder if Soto is a flash pan. One bad month? Fine. Two bad months??? Uh, oh.
Harden a relief pitcher? Am suggesting that he would never survive back- to- back, and even once every third day relief appearances. This might be too big a toll on his arm/shoulder. Making the transition to relief would be tough to accomplish successfully. He has geared his whole summer and off season, it seems, to be a starter. Maybe, just maybe Guzman would be a better choice than Wells as a starter? Although Guzman has done well lately out of the pen, just wondering if Wells, probably better control pitcher as far as BB & K's goes, would be trusted out of the pen? The history of Wells ever as a reliever? I like Guzman's stuff too much to keep him in pen if, indeed, he can be employed as a starter?
bruce, can Reed Johnson play 2nd? just a thought.....he sat on the bench a long time......he has always been a good hitter, just didn't play much.....we need him in the line up......1st base?........
Doesn't look like it. Coming into this year, his playing log showed 424 games in left field, 142 in center and 203 in right. Maybe they can sit Soriano and play Johnson in left tomorrow. Soriano has no HR and no RBI in the past two weeks. Johnson has an OBP of .364 and a SLG of .474.
It has nothing to do with whether or not you could instead fill up a lineup with good righties. I have always said you need 4 relievers who are relative good against both righties and lefties, and ideally you want one lefty who absolutely kills LH batters and one RH reliever who absolutely is death on RH batters. On a guy like Pujols, it doesn't matter who you pitch, he is very good against both. HOwever, if you are pitching to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard (.646 OPS vs LH) is on deck, you can basically give Utley a pass and bring up Howard and bring in your killer lefty. It is almost an automatic out against a good LH pitcher. However against a guy like Cotts who is actually worse against a lefty than he is against a righty, the advantage is much less. The Cubs should have gotten Marte or Reyes when they were available.
Not one player in Cubs line up I would trade for man for man for a WhiteSox player and Quentin is down and better than anything Cub a flubs have. Not a starting pitcher of Sox I would trade for any Cub a flubs. And SOX bullpen so superior to Cub a Flubs makes Flubs pen a cowpen. I like Johnson (he is a sparkplug that is it. Oh and I like Pinella He would make a good bench coach for Sox when Joey Cora goe's to Manage another Big league Team.
Did Derek Rose teach you how to spell?
When did "goes" go to "goe's"?
Thank you for the weekly, "I am a Sox fan. We are superior. You Cubs fans are all morons."
blah, blah, blah.....
So was Marshall aware he was returning to the bullpen before this start?
I'm not insinuating he's tanking on purpose, obviously, but sometimes non-favorable news one can receive can affect athletic performance.
This has gone on behind the scenes for some time. Sean's always been pretty good about going with the flow. I've never heard him complain.
In the past, Marshall's always taken a back seat to more established guys. It can't be easy to watch a relatively unheralded right-hander pop out of Triple-A and take away your starting job when you've put in your time in the majors, done everything that's been asked of you, earned your chance fair and square, and pitched well in most of your starts this season. I know I'd be bummed.
In a way, he's a victim of his own success. He's done well in both roles _ starting and relieving _ and the failure of Cotts has pretty much sentenced Marshall to the pen. Lou seems to want no part of Waddell. The fact that the Cubs have no experienced lefty in the pen right now is almost unfathomable.
But I'm not convinced it's all that big a deal either. The theory of the left-hander in the pen proceeds from an obvious fact: it's hard to fill up an entire major league bullpen with effective pitchers -- even when you carry only 5 relievers rather than 7. Your closer and your setup guy have to be able to pitch, because otherwise you're screwed. If you're lucky, maybe you've got another arm or 2 in there who can really pitch. But under normal circumstances, most of the remaining guys in your bullpen are going to be guys who aren't good enough to start or pitch the late innings. Since they aren't all that good, it's up to the manager (and the pitching coach) to handle them in a way that maximizes their chances to win ballgames rather than lose them.
Hence the LOOGY. The big left-handed hitters in the majors tend to kill ordinary right-handed pitchers. But even the greatest left-handed hitters are less invincible when giving up the platoon advantage: Babe Ruth, for example, during his prime as a hitter was owned by a mediocre lefty named Hub Pruett, who got run out of the AL in a few years by hitters who weren't named Ruth. I believe it was Leo Durocher who first turned this fact to account, keeping around at least one left-handed pitcher whose only job was to face lefties on the other team at key moments in the game. Time proved that it was a way a manager could pull an effective performance out of a pitcher who, if you left him face right-handed hitters, would have been blasted; it provided one more effective pitcher without needing to come up with another good pitcher. At its base, a LOOGY is a way of making lemonade out of a left-handed lemon.
But just because it's a viable tactic, that doesn't make it a necessary one. The 1994 Montreal Expos bullpen contained 5 right-handers and 0 left-handers most of the season. The worst ERA any of those righties posted was 3.88; the league average that season (what there was of it, anyway) was 4.22. A study done after the season showed that the Expo bullpen pitched with the platoon advantage only 46% of the time in 1994; the average that year for the other major league bullpens was 60%. But the Expos bullpen led the majors in ERA, saves, and wins (*and* innings pitched, for that matter). The lesson: if you have better right-handers available, you don't need to keep a left-hander.
And the corollary to that lesson: if you have 2 capable starters -- the Cubs certainly *hope* both Marshall and Wells are capable -- and you have to move 1 to the bullpen, then the hand each pitcher throws with should not be the deciding factor in making that decision.
Why not move Harden to closer? He's good for about 5-innings per week. Closing will give him the time he needs each outing to warm up. This will give the Cubs a much stronger bullpen, and leave Marshall where he excels.
Not trying to call ballplayers pre-madonnas, but I think major changes like that need to happen in spring training as someone who's only used to pitching every five days may find it difficult and harder on his arm to suddenly start pitching in short bursts possibly nearly every day.
First, Gregg is the closer, and he's not done poorly. Second, I don't know if Harden can work three straight games or five of seven. A change like that isn't going to happen during a season.
Bruce, I'm with you that the Cubs should have retained Wuertz, but I have to disagree on Gregg's performance. He's given up more hits than IP, not a good thing for a guy who is counted on to come in and turn out the lights on the opponent. He also has a history of having a problem throwing strikes and this year is no different, 13 BB's in 21.1 IP. His 1.69 WHIP might qualify him for one of the 11th or 12th pitchers on the roster, but certainly not to be the closer. Bottom line, he's only sent the opposition down in order in 4 of his 23 outings. In other words, he's always walking the tightrope, and he's very fortunate to have 8 saves in 9 chances.
Make that eight saves in ten chances. Which is worse?
A. The Cubs bullpen had to go three extra innings after Gregg blew the save
B. Wells is STILL in search of his first win to go with his 1.69 ERA, now 0-2 after five starts
C. Cubs rack up another tough loss
D. Cubs let Wood go to save on payroll but are paying Kevin Gregg $4.2M and traded the Marlins a top pitching prospect to get a closer who can't get the job done
Wow, thanks for bringing to light Lou's hand in the bullpen issues. That required some research and analysis..nice.
But that's too bad about Wuertz. So I'm guessing he worked out whatever issues (throwing the ball up in the zone for too many balls, from what I could tell) he had. Hmmm.... that also could point a raised brow at Larry...