Of Cubs present and future
Word coming over my Western Union ticker is that the Cubs will send Jake Fox to Iowa to make room for Aaron Miles, who comes off the DL today. The Fox move makes sense for now. I speculated yesterday that the Cubs could do some roster shuffling in two weeks, when they play at Detroit and then come “home” to play the Sox at the Cell. At that point, they can, and probably should, bring Fox back and have him DH. The Cubs really didn’t miss Miles. Bobby Scales and Andres Blanco filled in capably, and that two-year deal the Cubs gave Miles after he was non-tendered by the Cardinals isn’t looking so hot.
Onto the draft. Scouting director Tim Wilken sounded exasperated by the prime-time, made-for-TV draft, which made for a long first round. Get used to it. Actually, it was kind of fun to see video of all the kids picked.
Reading some of the boards this morning, I’m reminded a little bit of New York Jets fans, who get apoplectic over every pick the J-E-T-S make. Talk about good TV.
We’ll see how it pans out for the Cubs. When I read about first-rounder Brett Jackson, out of Cal, the first thought that came to mind was “Tyler Colvin,” Wilken’s first top pick, back in ’06. Colvin is a left-handed hitter who has had trouble with strikeouts and in putting up good OBP numbers. He chalked it up to being an “aggressive” hitter when I asked him about it in spring training of ’08.
On the conference call last night, I asked Jackson about working to make more contact. “I think with experience and proper coaching, it’s something that won’t be remembered,” he said of his 61 strikeout and 29 walks in 218 at-bats this year. “I don’t think that I’m a strikeout guy…In general, I’m an aggressive hitter. That’s the way I play the game. I play the game hard, and I play the game to win. Sometimes, aggressiveness can cause a strikeout. I don’t think that will be a problem in the future. I’m a fast learner, and with professional coaching and professional experience, I’ll learn to be a professional hitter.”
Sounds like a good answer, and the Cubs do lover their “gamers,” don’t they? Jackson did have an OBP of .407 and a slugging percentage of .564 at Cal. Some scouts have compared Jackson to J.D. Drew. He compared himself with Jim Edmonds (let’s hope with a better personality). Wilken compared him with Mark Kotsay, but without the “contact.”
Second-round pick DJ LeMahieu is headed to the College World Series with LSU and their coach, Paul Mainieri, a close friend of Cubs GM Jim Hendry. Mainieri is the former coach at Notre Dame, which produced Jeff Samardzija.
LeMahieu is a 6-foot-4, 193-pound sophomore, and scouts are mixed as to whether he’s a shortstop. So far, he’s batting .340 (84-for-247) with 48 runs scored, 12 doubles, 3 triples, 4 home runs and a .408 OBP in 66 games.
Third-rounder Austin Kirk is a lefty out of Owasso High School in Oklahoma, and he may head for Oklahoma U. Kirk, 19, went 9-1 with a 0.45 ERA in 11 games in 2009 to help lead Owasso to its 11th state championship. He struck out 111 in 61.2 innings pitched. He’s a 6-foot-1, 200-pounder.
Back to the present. Alfonso Soriano’s batting line this morning is .240/.306/.485, for an OPS of .790. In the OPS department, Soriano is trailing Ryan Theriot (.791) Reed Johnson (.794), neither of whom is considered a power hitter. Soriano’s OBP dipped below .300 over the weekend.
It’s still rough sailing for Milton Bradley, the bust of the free-agent crop so far. Bradley’s line after last night’s 0-for-6 is .208/.327/.368 for an OPS of .695. Remember, Bradley’s OPS last year with Texas was .999 to lead the American League. There were 29,669 people at Minute Maid Park last night, and Bradley left them all on base.
On the pitching front, Ted Lilly is making his case to be the Cubs’ lone representative at the All-Star Game at St. Louis next month. Teddy Ballgame, who also tripled, won to go to 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA. His WHIP is a tidy 1.05. For now, let’s call him the ace of the staff.
...is that if you look at Lee's production, he's produced at exactly his rate of compensation (absent his lost season in 2006):
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=525&position=1B
Scroll down that and look for the "Value" section. Lee's salary the past two years has been almost exactly in line with his production.
Where are the people that wanted this? been awfully quite lately!
Actually, if Pinella had "rested" Lee more in April and early May as he SAID he was going to do this year, the Cubs might not be in 3rd place right now. Lee fought through his slump and is playing well now. I hope it lasts.
I still can't get over his fascination with Miles. He can't hit. Pretty solid, but unspectacular with the glove . Reminds me of the old basketball joke, he is small, but he is slow.
But are you happy with the performance you have gotten out of lee since he signed his deal? Are you happy that he holds this team hostage and the Cubs can't even think of trading him?
Or his supposed leadership that has led to this team imploding the past 2 postseasons?
it's not so much that some of us want Lee out, it's more that we feel he's not a 3-4-5 hitter....he doesn't produce like a 3-4-5 hitter....like soriano is no lead off man.......plus hendry did ask Lee at the end of last year if he was happy here and Lee said yes....end of that subject......hendry is the guy who signs everyone (big names) to no trade contracts.....course if they asked me about a trade it would show they didn't want me.......as far as leadership, he has none or very little.......that's how i see it.......
That's the way I feel about the great D-Lee.
I don't want to get into it anymore, as I know he isn't going anywhere, his daughter was sick, his neck is stiff, his wrist still hurts, or whatever other BS excuse there is to defend this guy. He's hitting line drives or whatever else.
Every year he spouts off at the mouth about fans booing players or whatever else. It's obvious to me that the guy can't handle a big city and should be playing somewhere that the media is a bit more passive. I have the right to boo your @ss every time if I choose to, because without ME, your salary wouldn't exist. No fans=no money=no bs, no trade clause.
I 100% believe, that the man was on a PED in 2005 when he terrorized the league. That year alone saw a spike in his stats, and he has been NO WHERE CLOSE TO THAT since then.
I agree often with a lot of what you write, but a career year automatically = PEDs?
Check out his offensive output since mid-May, btw.
I know, it's a reach but I firmly believe it. The mid May numbers for D lee have been good, and we shouldn't expect anything less. I would love nothing more then to have D lee morph back into the beast he was in 2005. That's the guy I thought we were getting when he was extended. A guy finally living up to his potential.
Just watch him closely and think about the glaring difference from 2005 to now.
I'd be happy with his 2004 production
Blame the Cubs for giving a player a no-trade. If you're a player who gets a no-trade, why would you not use it. And the Cubs have not wanted to trade him.
Hostage wasn't the right word. I do blame the Cubs for giving every player a no trade clause, because then the Cubs can't trade players who seem to be on the downside of their career, and don't give them the return on their investment.
That's my point. At some point Cub fans need to realize what a predictament Hendry is going to keep this team in for the next couple of years. Especially, if this year is the beginning of the downslide, and the window to win has closed.
I've noticed that since Lou arrived that if you're not A-Ram, Lee, or Soriano, you better not get 3-4 hits in a game.....we're struggling to score runs, we'd like to get on a winning streak, we just win a game 7-1, Bradley going 0-6, Fontenot 4-4........so last night Miles who's having a very bad year just comes off the DL, Bradley had his 0-6 and having a very bad year, what does Lou do? Benches Fontenot.......not that we'd a won the game last night with Fontenot, but........
I saw this on a message board and at first, I thought 'terrible idea' but the more I think about it the more I like it.
The Cubs *STARTING* pitching is currently #1 in ERA, AVG against, OPS against, WHIP, K/BB, and 2nd in K/9. And its not on the espn stats but I think Bruce, you've pointed out, #1 in Quality Starts.
So out of the box thinking here. We only have Rich Harden signed thru this year. Move him to the pen! Have him close the games out! Harden in the 9th....he could be incredible there and only have to throw 20 pitches a day.
So, if the Cubs can't find help by the trade deadline and things in the starting rotation are still looking good....I think this move would help more than any other; thanks to our rotation succeeding. If they were in the middle of the pack than I don't think its a good idea because a starter is almost always more valuable than a RP.
You want Harden out of the pen? A guy who can barely throw 1 every 5 days, and usually needs 6-7 days to come out of the pen?
Come on.....I don't see how this is logical at all. It's completely different warming up every day, and there is no way Harden's arm could handle that.
Precedent has been set with Wood. Easier to throw 20 pitches on successive nights than to throw 100 every 5.
I think Wood went there, because if memory serves correctly he was going to give it everything he could in 2006 or 2005, until this team was mathematically eliminated and then he got surgery. He was pretty much forced into the role.
Where as Harden, still has a very large upside to starting. No way he does this with a contract looming this winter.
First, the Cubs have a closer with whom they're not displeased. Second, it would be much more difficult getting Harden up and down four days out of five than it would to get him ready for a start every fifth day. If you have to use him three days in a row, you're asking for trouble. But the point is moot anyway since the Cubs aren't considering it, and won't.
Add this kid to every other bust out first round pick the Cubs have drafted the past 20 years.
The reason this team will never win anything is they continue to sign and draft players that have limited VORP and horrible OPS even in college / hs. If a kid is a K machine at 18 and doesn't know how to take a pitch this isn't going to change when the player is 22.
Bruce,
I don't agree with sending Fox down. How many switch hitting middle infielders do they need? What's next, Neifi, Tony Womack, Todd Walker, Freddy Bynum and Jerry Hairston Jr. again. Late in the game, I'd much rather have Hoffpauir and Fox as pinch-hitting options instead of Miles, Scales or Blanco.
Right now, the Cubs don't have a place for him to play; that's their rationale. I do hope he's back to DH in the AL parks. The Miles signing smacks of Neifi all over again: two years for not much production. The one knock on the Cubs that really sticks is that they haven't been efficient with their dough, even when they had it to spend. Now, it's really costing them.
I guess Lou likes Blanco's glove, and he's probably mesmerized by Blanco's range, the likes of which a Cubs manager rarely has seen in years.
The other problem, of course, is Lou's insistence on carrying 12 pitchers. With 11, you could carry Fox. But I've been sounding that one for a few weeks now.
But Bruce, the Cubs don't have a place for Miles to play either with Blanco and Scales already on the roster. I realize Lou and the coaches probably don't trust Fox at any defensive position, but if that were so important why did they sign Soriano or Bradley?
So Lou would rather have Miles/Blanco/Scales ready to pinch hit late in the game and down by a run. Brilliant.
After witnessing Fontenot's "defense" at third in Cincinnati this weekend, I thought Lou would at least give Fox a chance at 3rd a couple of games. The Cubs horrible base running and lack of hitting cost them Saturday night. In parks like Cincinnati and Houston, hitting can overcome bad defense a lot of the time.
If the Cubs fail to make the playoffs, this is all on Hendry. His moronic spending has finally cost this team any financial flexibilty and the depth is non existent.
He's damn lucky the Cardinals and Brewers aren't distancing themselves from the Cubs right now, or his butt would be getting grilled.
Time for Dempster to get on track and prove that 2008 wasn't a mirage........
had one opportunity at 3B and he failed....and when you fail once in front of Lou, sometimes that's all it takes to be done.
It was a grounder right at him, he hesitated, missing the double play opportunity, but more importantly he left Scales hung out and almost got his knees blown up. I don't think Lou will put him anywhere near 3B after that.
There aren't too many scouts in the game who think Fox can play third, or anywhere else for that matter. So what Lou saw pretty much confirmed what the reports told him.
There has been absolutely no trade market for Fox, despite the minor-league batting numbers.
Bruce-
Are the Cubs going to push Fox at 1b in preperation of Lee leaving after next year, or is that going to Hoffpauir by default, or a free agent? He looked like he has some talent, and I agree with the previous posts about him being a valuable bat off the bench. Maybe he should start preparing himself for that, because I can't see an AL team taking a flier on a guy to put in the DH role. Hoffpauir can at least play the OF.....somewhat.
Just out of curiousity, how do you make it to AAA, without a position? Is he that athletically challenged that he can't adapt at 3b, or Rf?
I read about Vitters taking over for A-ram at 3b down the line.
I know these guys have very small sample sizes (fox), but hopefully the Cubs call these guys up and get them some ab's before determining if they are long term solutions. IF they stink, then they can trade them while their value is still perceived as being high by other GMs, instead of dumping them to the Orioles.
Fox hasn't been a central part of the Cubs' long-term planning. I'm sure they felt they'd be able to trade him by now. Lee is here through 2010, and a million things can and probably will happen between now and then. If not Fox, the Cubs probably would think they could convert somebody to first base or sign or trade for a veteran for 2011. As for making it to AAA, baseball people always say, "If he can hit, we'll find a place for him." Fox may be the exception to that rule.
Sometimes finding a place for good-hit-no-field guys takes a lot of time. Nobody gave Mike Easler a full shot until he was 29 years old. When he finally got his chance, he proceeded to pound the baseball for years before running out of gas in his mid-30s. There are quite a lot of cases like that in baseball history; Fox is merely the latest.
It depends, I think, on the organization to a degree. I think some teams, when they say that, mean, "If he's a quality major league hitter, we'll find a place for him when we need a bat." I think when the Cubs say it, they mean, 'If he hits like Ted Williams, we'll find a place for him *now* -- but otherwise forget it, if he isn't an MVP with his bat alone he has to be able to play defense." I don't think the Cubs are the only club with that attitude. Easler was with his 4th organization when he finally made it.
The DH rule has helped out some of those guys -- I think Jack Cust finally caught a break because the A's have the option of hiding him at DH 50-60 games a year, something the Diamondbacks couldn't do -- but not so much as you'd think. Partly it's because the DH has been the landing place for proven great hitters who aren't up to fielding any more (think Frank Thomas and Jim Thome with the White Sox). But also because teams expect a *lot* of offense from DHs: being just a good hitter isn't good enough. That's why the Twins released David Ortiz: he had a .500 slugging percentage in his last year with Minnesota, but just a league average OBP. That wasn't enough offense from a DH for the Twin, so they cut him (Boston, however, looked beyond the numbers and picked up a cornerstone of their World Championship teams without giving up any talent). I expect that's why Fox is regarded by at least some scouts as a platoon DH: they think he might hit enough against lefties to make the grade at DH, but they don't think he'll hit far enough above major league average against right-handers to justify giving him the DH job full-time.
I'd note that some of the guys who really were good hitters but nobody in the U.S. ever found a spot for have gone on to long careers in Japan.
agree.....unless you give fox or any hitter a shot.....playing him one game proves nothing...he may or may not be able to hit rigthies, but give him a shot and find out before he's to old to walk.......
Hey Bruce,
I told you Lilly should have been the opening day starter;) He has been arguably there most consistant pitcher since coming to the Cubs.
And no arguments from this corner. Too bad he didn't get a chance to start in the playoffs last year. He'll win his 15-17 again. Four years, $40 million. Better than Gil Meche, one of the other free-agent pitchers that year.
shouldn't have been a surprise coming from the AL East with a 4.20-4.30 ERA and 15 wins before arriving in Chicago. A move of Hendry's I actually liked....those are few and far between.
Not happy with the drafting of Wilken though. Was ecstatic he came aboard, but results have been meh.
Seeing that Kirk was born in 1990 finally gave me my first moment of feeling old. That hurt the soul a bit.
I witnessed it in person and was thinking had Lou flip-flopped Bradley and Fontenot, they would have had to invoke the 'mercy rule'. Good thing it wasn't a close game. Ugh.
By "gamers," we're talking about guys who "play the game right," and "get their uniforms dirty" and all that good stuff. They like their "toolsy" guys, too, some of whom can be "gamers."
Bruce, the way Wilken has drafted it seems to me he prefers tools to "gaming". Jackson's another "5 tool" guy who happens to whiff a lot. The next two picks baffle me completely: the shortstop who isn't might be a corner infielder without power, and they might have to go above slot on a one pitch guy who might not sign anyway. It's four years now, shouldn't we see something more than a couple months of Samardzjia and Vitters turning a corner in low A?
I don't know if this was an especially weak draft or what but these picks seemed very underwhelming. It seems that the elite college players have OB% of .450 and above, even if they have a lot of strikeouts. The .408 ob% by Jackson does not project out very well.
All of the video I saw of Kirk saw him topping out in the high 80's, have you seen otherwise?
DJ LeMahieu interests me the most but the Cubs don't have a great history of producing great infielders throughout their system.
Have seen reports of 88-92 mph, but those may be generous.
Jim Hendry does an absolute brutal job of drafting players. Tim Wilken might be the one convincing him to take players in his role as scouting director but Hendry needs to stand behind these picks and they've looked awful in recent years.
Let's hope this years draft is better.
Tim Wilken drafts. Like him or not, the one thing Hendry does do is delegate. There is no way for him to see even a fraction of the amateur players out there. Hendry ran the draft when he was the scouting director. John Stockstill ran it for a few years. Hendry and the Cubs weren't happy with him, and he's now at Baltimore.