Of Fox, Bradley and Colvin
First let's congratulate Jake Fox on catching Milton Bradley in home runs and passing him in RBI. Jake did that yesterday in the Cubs' loss at Florida. In 107 at-bats, Jake has 8 homers and 27 RBI to go along with a hitting line of .308/.347/.607 for an OPS of .955
Bradley, in 256 at-bats, is .250/.385/.387 for an OPS of .772, still far below the .999 that led the American League last year. He has 8 homers and 26 RBI.
Lou needs to find a way to have Fox start almost every day, whether it's at third, first, left, right or even behind the plate, where Koyie Hill has started 23 games in a row. The last Cubs catcher to do that was Damon Berryhill, who started 25 in a row in '89. Since July 7, Hill has caught 207 innings, and Fox has caught 6. The next-busiest catcher since July 7 is the Dodgers' Russell Martin, who has caught 181.2 innings, or about three 9-inning games fewer than Hill. Geovany Soto will rehab at Class AA Tennessee tonight, where GM Jim Hendry will get a look. Geo could be back Friday, when the Cubs got to Colorado.
Speaking of Tennessee, Tyler Colvin finished off an 11-for-11 run yesterday. Included were 2 homers, a double, 6 RBI and 5 runs.
"It is pretty amazing," Colvin told minorleaguebaseball.com. "You go up there and you hit balls and you hope they fall. To do it 11 times and they all found holes, that's pretty fun."
You can read the whole story here:
http://tennessee.smokies.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090802&content_...
Colvin was the Cubs' top draft pick in 2006, the first draft for current scouting director Tim Wilken, who has a lot of guys moving up the system pretty quickly these days. The Cubs have taken a lot of heat for the Colvin pick (and the subsequent pick in that draft of Jeff Samardzija), largely because of Colvin's lack of plate discipline. He underwent Tommy John surgery before this season and opened the season at Class A Daytona. His line at Tennessee: .286/.313/.487 for an OPS of .800. He has 9 homers and 26 RBI. In 189 at-bats, Colvin has struck out 38 times at Tennessee and walked 8 times, so yes, the OBP needs some work.
We'll see if Aramis Ramirez returns to third base tonight for the big club at Cincy. Lou mentioned to the media in Florida yesterday that Kevin Gregg will remain his closer. Here are some WHIP numbers from the pen:
Gregg: 1.35
Marmol: 1.47
Guzman: 1.05
Marshall: 1.30
Heilman: 1.55
Samardzija: 1.86
I expect to see Samardzija go back to Iowa tomorrow, when the Cubs officially call up lefty Tom Gorzelanny to pitch against the Reds. It's hard to know right now what the Cubs have planned for Samardzija long term.
Here are some other Cubs hitting line, with OPS being the fourth figure:
Ramirez: .349/.414/.596/1.009
Lee: .293/.367/.536/.904
Theriot: .296/.351/.422/.773
Soriano: .249/.315/.447/.762
Fukudome: .270/.385/.441/.826
So as you can see, Theriot is still out-OPSing Bradley and Soriano.
Maybe some more later.
While Gregg has a 1.35 WHIP his splits vs RHB and LHB are significant. They are opposite what we'd expect. 1.17 vs LHB and 1.52 vs RHB. His splits home and away are also extreme variances. 1.14 Home and 1.56 Away.
Marshall's 1.35 WHIP is deceptive. It's 1.38 as a starter but only 1.14 in relief. However he does has a problem vs RHB. 1.47 WHIP vs RHB. 0.99 WHIP vs LHB.
It seems Lou would be well served to sit Marmol and Gregg in save situations where we're up by 3 runs or less.
you keep wondering if this kid is for real, keep waiting for the wheels to fall off, yes he has been a "very pleasant surprise".....
what is his career high in innings? I know they need him to go deep most of his starts but at what point do you start to worry about overload and him wearing down during the stretch? But then again a 3 run lead is not safe right now.
Why is he so bent on staying with MARMOL in close games and the 8th inning. Guzman has proved he is more reliable this year. He should have been in there tonight.
they should of thought of this before, 2nd, 3rd, 4th back up plan......I've said it before about marmol.....what if it was a one run lead?.....to me it seems like they have no back up plan...same with Gregg
Lou said on his pregame show that he wanted to stay away from Guzman, who worked the previous two days, going 1 inning Sunday and 1.2 innings Saturday.
He had no problem throwing Gregg after he threw 38 pitches the night before.
Guzman had the triceps problem earlier in the season. You get him hurt now, and you're really in trouble. And there are a lot of things they never make public about various aches and pains.
But going forward it would make sense to use Guzman in the most important 7th and 8th in roles? Basically, switch Marmol and Guzman?
It might well.
The 8-inning start against Houston is his career best. I've got him for 93 pitches.
Bruce,
Why in the world does Lou stay with Marmol so long? He is horrible right now. Almost any pitcher can do what he is doing right now. You can't give up 2 or more baserunners every time out. Guzman is clearly the best pitcher in the pen. Why does Lou not move him into the more important innings and give Marmol a break, at least until he starts pitching better. He is like Zambrano, every time he gets into trouble, he just starts throwing as hard as he can. I just don't get it.
when he likes you it doesn't matter how bad you are...
and when Lou doesn't like you...you get traded.
Gregg and Guzman were not going to work tonight, and neither was Heilman. Grabow was used already. Stevens, Samardzija and Marshall were the others in the pen. I don't think Lou wants to use Marshall as a closer right now.
you've been waiting to use the 'all's well' line haven't you?
I see in 06 he pitched a combined 130 but this year he is around 110 with the Cubs and over 20 in Iowa. I would think they will need another 10 starts out of him, do you think he has 200 plus innings in him where he can keep up this level of productivity? When Lilly comes back do you think they will spread out a start or two between him and Gorzelany? Not suggesting a 6 man rotation, but maybe a reshuffling of the roation every once in a while.
I don't think they'll spread the starts between Wells and Gorzelanny, but I do think they'll try to give Wells a little rest, by using off-days. Not a bad thought, though. He has 102.1 innings pitched as of now, so he won't reach 200, but he looks like he's established himself pretty well.
Where did all this anger and venom come from? Wishing injuries on him? Wow. Ok, by almost all accounts, Bradley has been a disappointment this year. People saw his career year last year and were expecting more of the same this year. Now I hear stuff like "he's completely useless" everyday. Are these people watching the same game I am watching? Have these "Joe Morgans" realized that he almost set a Cubs record with 23 walks in July? In fact, his OBP for the year would rank him in the top 15 in the NL! Also, he's starting to come around with the bat, as he hit .275/.457(!)/.420 for an OPS of .878 in July. Sure he's struggling a little bit against righties (still carrying a .377 OBP) and it would be nice to see Fox get more starts in RF on some of those days, but c'mon guys! He plays his heart out, shows emotion, cares deeply about winning... and you boo him and sling mud because he struggled? Why hasn't Fontenot gotten the same treatment? He's been the real disappointment in my eyes. Hell, we got rid of "the most popular cub ever" to make room for him, and he's not hitting OR getting on base. Anyway, back to Bradley for a second. He's miscast right now as a #5 hitter. With his OBP, he should be a #2 or #3 hitter in front of Lee and Ramirez. In fact, here's my idea of the perfect order for when Geo comes back.
Fukudome
Bradley
Lee
Ramirez
Theriot
Soto
Soriano
Fontenot
Now (although unconventional) that's a long lineup that "starts over" with Theriot again in the 5 hole.
With that said, you're 100% Bruce. Fox needs to find his way into the lineup more often. Just please do me one favor - don't use RBIs as an argument. We both know how deceiving a metric that is for evaluating performances. Keep up the good work my friend!
well if Bradley was hitting i'd say yes put him 3rd....he's really not an RBI guy....where hendry got that from baffles me....and he's not a #2 guy.....
now that soriano has had his 2 week hot streak, play fox in LF......that won't happen i know....
It can be misleading and it's largely dependent on a batter having runners aboard to drive in. I'm all about OPS, OBP and SLG. There have been times, however, when the Cubs have been disappointed in Bradley in RBI situations, when it's looked like he's gone up there looking for a walk instead of driving the ball. He got called out on strikes in such a situation on the recent homestand. Maybe he could have fouled a pitch off. That said, he may yet pan out, but it sure doesn't look like he's enjoying himself in any way.
Great post.
I agree that it looks like Bradley is starting to come around a little bit. However, Cubs fans aren't going to let him forget about April/May/June. Which is typical of Cubs fans. Just like in the playoffs last year. As soon as the Cubs lost the lead in game 1 it was like a funeral at Wrigley. Oh no we can't win!!! We're trailing!! There's no way we're going to be able to come back and win this game or series!!
I think everyone agrees that we're stuck with Soriano/Fukudome/Bradley. It's doubtful any GM is going to take those contracts so let's bite our tongues and hope Bradley doesn't try to kick someones a** in the stands! LOL
Hey Bruce,
Do you have the lineup yet?
From what I read online, it apears to be:
Fukudome, CF
Theriot, SS
Lee, 1B
Ramirez, 3B
Bradley, RF
Soriano, LF
Fontenot, 2B
Hill, C
Wells, P
Bruce- Will the Cubs explore waivers on their current players to see what happens? I have read pretty much everyone is put on waivers in August to see who gets claimed and then they are pulled back, but it seems like a waste of time. No one wants the big ticket items and those who are claimed are not anyone they want to trade.
Any word on who has already made it through from other teams? Once players are put on waivers, how long until it is made public (or to the media, anyway) that they cleared?
I expect a lot of players to be put on waivers. Players usually have 72 hours to clear waivers, and weekends don't count. Teams and Major League Baseball do not make public who is on waivers. We always find out about it if a trade is made or sometimes if a player is claimed and pulled back.
Bruce,
That's if Hendry is even around next season. If I were Tom Ricketts, my first move as new owner would be to fire the GM. Hendry has handcuffed himself and the organization with these bad moves dating back to '06 especially with those backloaded contracts.
Not to mention all the terrible recent offseason acquisitions like Bradley, Gregg, Heilman, Miles.....all of these players are worthless bums who should be ashamed to call themselves professional baseball players.
I fully expect Jim Hendry to be the GM next year. Let's remember that those above Hendry not only approved, but encouraged and sometimes had an active hand in several of these contracts.
Those above Hendry? Crane Kenney? Yikes....bad news for us Cub fans if Kenney if he's in charge of finding talent.
The Cubs would do well to admit their mistakes and unload some bad contracts by eating around half or so if that's what it takes. Soriano tops the list, with Bradley behind him, mainly because Milton is only signed for two more years and they are presently stuck with Soriano thru 2014. I realize that Soriano has a no-trade clause, but if the fans stay on him the way they have, maybe he'll be glad to approve a trade to put him in some new surroundings. Chone Figgins is going to be a FA and would provide the leadoff man the Cubs need to terrorize the opposing pitchers and catchers. Abreu and Ibanez were only signed for one year so they should be available again after this season. There has also been some word that Carl Crawford might be available in trade in a cost cutting effort for the Rays. They need to add some LH balance to the lineup and whether or not Bradley can get hot as a lefty over the next couple months is a huge question mark. Bottom line, Cubs would do well to add a couple lefties in the outfield that make contact, add speed, get on base, and actually play defense well.
It would be nice to see a platoon of Fuld / Reed (when he returns) in CF and Fuko / Fox in RF.
Just like Geo provided a big spark in 2007 at the end of the season to eventually boot Jason Kendall from the starting spot, maybe Fuld or Fox can help solidify the lineup with some consistent playing time.
the way to get Soriano to ask for a trade is to bench him.....then pay half his pay to an AL team and get rid of him.....
LF is the easiest of the 3 OF positions to play, mainly cause of the sun in RF.....so no to Fox playing there....play him in LF, agree on Fuld/Reed, maybe Fukudome/Bradley for RF.....
late in games we're winning you put Reed in LF, Fuld in CF, and Fukudome in RF for defense....
that's for this year...in the off season we'll see what the new owner lets hendry do....
What is not working for him this year? Has the league adjusted or was he just a mirage last year? I know he had been rising to the level of competition (getting better each step he took in the organization) does he need to be sent to AAA and given a closer's role to see if he can handle the pressure? Maybe he needs a challenge ...
my understanding is he needs a curve and slider/change up to go with his fastball....so they send him down to work on those pitches....problem is they keep bringing him back up before he's good with those pitches.....it takes time, it's not so easy.....some guy do it some don't.....
Last year, Samardzja came up to the bigs with a pitch and a half but the fast ball was moving and at 96-97 mph he was missing a lot of bats. Then last September and into this season, it looks to me like the movement was gone and it's just quick fodder for the hitters. Why he is here is an even bigger mystery than Patton. He needs to be at Iowa learning to harness what he has and add that third pitch. I say it's more puzzling than keeping Patton because if Samarj continues to lose ability and confidence, the Cubs will have blown the money they've spent on him.
your right
It is hard to imagine any free agent being worse than Aaron Miles. Then again, Miles wasn't sign to be an impact player. Pat Burrell isn't exactly proving to be a good signing by the Rays either. Milton might not be the biggest bust, but he is in the team picture.
Bruce, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Miles coming up on his 20 game minor league rehab limit?
So we might be blessed with his out making presence before long.
He should be up soon, unless they miraculously find a way to moved him.
Bruce,
Why has Bobby Scales not been back up? He has by far the best stats of any 2ndbaseman on the roster and is a switchhitter with speed who can play both 2nd base and 3rd base. I don't get how they can ever promote Miles. He has no place on the roster, unless you just drop Baker or Blanco(who probably hits as well, but is more versatile defensively). He is basically an unneeded part.
I'm assuming when Miles gets called back up to mope around the dugout and fly out to deep second base, Andy White will get sent down? Other than the fact that Miles can swing and make weak contact from both sides of the plate, what does he bring to the team?
Give Lou credit for making Bradley a sorta part time player based on (lack of) production). Baker, Baylor, Rigs, I doubt any of them would be sitting Milton a game out of every 3 (at least) in favor of a rookie who actually helps the team.
Seems to me that Bradley has given the Cubs absolutely nothing this season. Usually a guy underperforms but you can point back to his hitting a couple homers to win games or steal bases to set up chances or make big defensive plays. Bradley has produced nothing to help the Cubs at all. Haven't seen a free agent acquisition pull that off since Jeff Blauser and Danny Jackson.
If the Cubs are sitting home in October, this will be the "dumb" move that fans will always remember...
3 years and $30 million for Milton Bradley vs. 1 year and $5 million for Bobby Abreu
Utter failure! Absolutely inexcusable...
You have to keep in mind that Abreu was still seeking a larger contract at the time when Bradley was signed. That may have factored into Hendry's certainty that Bradley was his guy. He didn't want to get shut out in his quest for a lefty bat.
Things may change, but right now, Bradley is looking like a $30 million bill of goods. My guess is that next spring training, we'll hear how making the adjustment to Chicago was tough and playing day games was tough (yeah, the sun is out) and all that and that he finally feels "adjusted." But he's getting $10 million to get adjusted. Don't know if Jim Hendry will consider trading him this off-season, but he's the free-agent bust of the year so far.
But he did sport an .878 OPS in July.
Didn't he struggle in 2002 (first year of his 3 year contract), and then have dynamite seasons in 2003 and 2004? Just looking for a silver lining. But I would have no issue if Hendry traded him in the offseason. He's been just awful from the left side (slugging wise).
Yes, he did struggle in '02. He came to camp out of shape from not doing much of anything in the off-season. He got hurt just standing in the oufield at Bank One Ballpark during a spring-ending exhibition game. So couple being out of shape with not getting accustomed to the Wrigley Field schedule, and you had a disaster.
.. would you agree that he played like a star in those 2 final years, and without him the Cubs wouldn't be in the 2003 postseason and not even in the hunt in 2004?
And the Cubs missed him after he left.
... as to why the Cubs didn't sign Alou for a 1 year deal in 2005. I think it had something to do with wanting to trade Sammy and not knowing how much cash they'd need to pick up in the deal. As it turned out they signed Burnitz for $5M, and they probably could have Moises for $7M. Oh well, water under the bridge now...