Quality starts carrying Cubs
It’s time for another quality-start update. Only this time, we’re going to look at the Cubs’ quality starts since July 1, and I think you’ll find the numbers interesting.
I started keeping a log of quality starts last year, just to see if it was a “legit” stat. I had heard it derided as, “Yeah, all you need to do is pitch 6 innings and give up 3 earned runs, and that’s a 4.50 ERA.”
People who use that argument don’t finish it, though. The 6-inning, 3-run thing is only the minimum requirement for a quality start. If a guy pitches 8 shutout innings, that’s still a quality start, and his ERA for that game is 0.00. Most quality starts for most teams are better than the 4.50 ERA minimum, and so it goes for the Cubs. They have 66 quality starts this year. The team’s record in those games is 43-23 and the cumulative ERA is 2.23. Pretty good. And if you don’t like quality starts, you might know that the Cubs are 11 games under .500, at 14-25, when they don’t get one.
The numbers are even more impressive for the Cubs’ starters since July 1. In that time, the Cubs have gotten 19 quality starts. The team’s record in those games is 17-2, and the ERA of the starters in quality-start games since July 1 is 1.93.
In this period, they’ve had only 3 starts of the minimum kind: Carlos Zambrano’s July 12 start, Randy Wells’ July 24 start and Kevin Hart’s July 30 start. Maybe the Cubs didn’t like that one, because they traded Hart right after the game.
Here is the breakdown of quality starts among Cubs pitchers since July 1:
Wells: 5
Zambrano: 4
Rich Harden: 3
Ryan Dempster: 2
Ted Lilly: 2
Hart: 2
Tom Gorzelanny: 1
Harden goes tonight for the Cubs in the series finale at Cincy. We’ll see if they bring Aaron Miles off the DL.
In the minors last night:
--Geovany Soto went 1-for-3 with a homer for Class AA Tennessee on his rehab assignment. He’ll join the team in Colorado over the weekend. In that Tennessee game, Tyler Colvin tripled to extend his hitting streak to eight games, including that 11-for-11 tear over the weekend. Colvin his hitting .286 with an OPS of .805. Hot shortstop prospect Starlin Castro was 2-for-4 in his Double-A debut. He also made an error, something he’ll have to work on.
--At Class A Peoria, this year’s No. 1 pick, Brett Jackson, went 3-for-6 with his first homer in a 14-inning victory. Another kid to watch on that team is reliever Chris Huseby, whom farm director Oneri Fleita calls the best “strike-thrower” in the system. Huseby, a member of Tim Wilken’s 2006 draft class, worked 2 scoreless innings for the win. In 43 innings this year, he has walked just seven and struck out 58. Starting last night’s game was Chris Archer, one of the three pitchers the Cubs got for Mark DeRosa. Archer went 6 innings, giving up 3 hits and no runs. He’s got a 2.82 ERA.
--If you missed one of yesterday’s blogs, third-base prospect Josh Vitters has been out of Daytona’s games for about a week with a left-hand injury. Oneri tells me it’s not serious and that Vitters should be back in a couple days.
More later.
we (Cubs) have no 2nd baseman, bad LF'er, over rated manager.....i'm not big on Ozzie..
on another note....what ever happened to letting the starter learn how to get himself out of a mini jam late (7th inning) in a game?.....now if he starts off with a walk, hit, or hit on error the manager brings in his 7th inning specialist....it would be nice to see one of our starters go 9 once in a while.....that would really help the pen....
they say Castro may be better then Vitters....yes our farm system is looking good.....
Who has the edge? Here's my opinion.
First base: CUBS
Second base: Even
Shortstop: CUBS
Third Base: CUBS
Left Field: CUBS
Center Field: CUBS
Right Field: SOX
Catcher: SOX
Starting Rotation: CUBS
Bullpen: Even
Bench: CUBS
Manager: Even
Bruce,
What do you make of Samardzija's issues? Do you think it's because he gets sent to the minors and starts, and then tries to make the transition to the pen?
To me it looks like his velocity is down and his fastball is straight...I'm just wondering what the team is thinking...if anything?
From what I've been hearing, a lot of his issues are mechanics-related. It seems those have to get ironed out. It probably doesn't help the development of his pitches that he goes to the pen when he comes up here. He'd probably be better served starting a whole year in the minors. A pitcher like Stevens, on the other hand, has been accustomed to relieving, and he's been more effective. When I get caught up with the Cubs in-person next week, I'll try to find out more as to what their long-term plans are.
Doing a little research at Baseball Prospectus, one finds that the Cubs are now 50-10 when scoring 4 or more runs in a game, the best percentage in baseball. On the other hand, if they don't get at least 3 runs, they're 3-33. The third run helps, but the 4th makes all the difference in the world.
Nice to see this kind of analysis.
I appreciate you reading. Baseball is a game you can enjoy on many levels. Some of my readers are content with the bubble-gum card stats. I had a guy ask me once what slugging percentage was. Another asked why I was "carrying on" about on-base percentaget. That's OK. In the paper, I've got to keep the casual reader in mind a little more and explain things like WHIP. On the blog, we can get a little more esoteric, and a lot of these things will be mainstream pretty soon.
The thing that gets forgotten in the quality start is the 6 innings pitched saves the bullpen over the 162 game schedule. So over the long haul, more quality starts equals a fresher bullpen in September and October.
I'd like to see the % or number of quality starts vs total wins for all teams. If teams with the highest # of quality starts generally have the most wins I think it becomes a more valid statistic.
ESPN's got that data on its stats page, going back to 2000. It's not a great correlation, but it's there. To project a bit, the Cubs have 66 QS this year, which would project to 101 for the season. That would be the 2nd highest total in the last decade. If you look at all teams with 82+ QS in that timespan, they have averaged 89 wins. If the cut is 90 QS, the average number of wins is 91. Only about 25% of the teams with 90+ QS won less than 88 games.
OK - so it's not exactly a predictor but it's a significant piece to overall wins.
I still think the biggest part of this stat is the rest the bullpen gets over the course of the season. Maybe the way to look at it is to look at playoff teams bullpen ERA (that is only during the playoffs). My guess would be lower QS's equals higher playoff bullpen ERA, which I'm thinking means an early playoff exit. I'd be curious if that proves out.
Was Gorzelanny's arm "stretched out" sufficiently in the Pirates' minor league system before the trade or do you think Lou might have pushed him a little too hard to rest our bullpen?
As always, great reporting and writing, Bruce.
Since the Pirates sent Gorzelanny to the minors, he started and went 4, 5, 5, 8, 5.2, 6, 6 and 6.2 innings, respectively, in each of his starts. So yes, he was pretty well stretched out.
Not as simple as Quality Start, but more telling IMO. I'm sure there are problems with that, but no stat is perfect.
You have to start somewhere, and maybe 6 innings and 3 runs is a little liberal. But the critics of this stat simply stop there. They forget that 7 innings and 1 run is a quality start, as is 9 innings and 0 runs. The problem on the "top end" with the quality start is that if a starter goes 9 innings, wins and gives up 4 earned runs, it's not a quality start. But taken in a large sample, the stat tells a pretty good story and the "Game score" often reflects it as I pointed out with the Cubs' record in quality starts, both for the season and since July 1.
Can't they just DFA him? We've got no need for a guy who makes gritty outs.
Refresh my memory, who were those 2 losses against?
Zambrano lost 2-1 to the Braves on July 7. The Cubs and Gregg lost Dempster's quality start on Aug. 2 at Florida. When you lose a quality start, the offense either takes the night off or the bullpen can't hold a lead.
I was trying to block that Florida game out of my mind...
Yes, the Braves took 2 out of 3 that series, despite the Cubs pitching well.
If Miles is activated tonight, I would love to see Lou put him in the lineup and say, okay, "show us!"
Hoops
Well Hoops, you got your wish. First AB - 2 pitches = weak foul out. Is it just me or does Lou follow the righty / lefty thing to the detriment of his own line-up too often?
Nice to see some emotion from D.Lee at the plate though.
The rumor is that Sam Fuld will be headed back to Iowa today which makes sense since he's a left handed bat and I'm sure Miles could back-up Fukudome in center if he had too.
The bigger question is Friday as long as nobody gets hurt tonight who go's down when Soto comes back Friday and it looks like Jeff Samardzija will be sent down.
Seems to me Samardzija will be sent down. Stevens has exhibited better command.