Waiver wire seems quiet
Jim Hendry paid a visit to the field today, and I asked him if there was anything happening on the waiver wire as far as trades go. Jim seemed to think not.
"We made some claims that might have made sense," he said. "Other people had claimed those particular people ahead of us, and they weren't traded anyhow. Yesterday and today didn't seem to have anything that made sense. I'm not anticipating that there probably will be. Hopefully, we're going to survive the injuries."
Ted Lilly pitches in Peoria tonight. We'll try to keep track of that. Jim said Reed Johnson still may be a couple weeks from returning from the broken left foot.
Lineup
Theriot, SS
Bradley, RF
Lee, 1B
Fox, 3B
Fukudome, CF
Soriano, LF
Baker, 2B
Hill, C
Samardzija, P
One of our readers yesterday talked about the line-drive percentage of Cubs batters. Here are the top five Cubs, along with their batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The Cubs enter today third in line-drive percentage, at 19.8. Their BABIP is .296, 22nd best in baseball. That could suggest the Cubs have hit into some bad luck.
Fukudome: LD percentage 24.9 BABIP: .324
Bradley: LD percentage 21.3 BABIP: .328
Theriot LD percentage 20.4 BABIP: .338
Soriano LD percentage 18.8 BABIP: .282
Lee LD percentage 17.9 BABIP: .312
Fukudome's line-drive percentage is fifth in baseball. The league average on BABIP typically is right around the .300 mark. So guys with huge BABIP numbers figure to have a lot of batting balls finding holes.
On other things, Lou says he's sticking with Marmol despite 52 walks in 53.2 innings. Marmol also has 11 hit batters. Last year, Marmol walked 41 in 87.1 innings and had six hit batters.
Kevin Gregg has given up 11 homers. He gave up a combined 10 between 2007-08.
As always with Lou, we'll see what happens. He and Marmol both said Marmol's problems are mechanical.
Enjoy Samardzija vs. Pedro tonight.
look at our opponents babip. It is .288. If we are believe in luck that means while our luck has been bad, theirs has been worse. That is a net gain for us.
Please let's not get into the "poor us" mindset. This is a team that is worst in the majors in scoring runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs. It's also 26th in advancing runners from 2nd with no outs. In essence, we are just not clutch. Hidden behind the numbers are a group of players that just hasn't gotten it done in crunch time. Our BA with RISP says all too much about this team.
Appreciate the post and the opponents' BABIP. There certainly is "clutch" hitting, but the sabermetricians will tell you there's no such thing as a "clutch" hitter. The other night, the Cubs had men on base, and two of their hitters lined out. Were they any less "clutch" than the guy who might have blooped a hit on a popup over the second baseman's head? It's good fooder for debate.
that certainly there is some luck in individual at bats or even over short periods of time. However, the law of large numbers begins to apply as numerous events occur. I believe the most representative number representing a team's offense is sOPS+. Ours is 90 or 27th in the majors. That is based upon 4385 plate appearances. Those numbers indicate to me that there have been enough events to eliminate most noise. We are 29th in the % of runners scored.
We are 29th in % Productive outs. We are 29th in BA with RISP, 29 points below the league average and 26 points less than we hit in non RISP situations. Call it clutch. Call it karma or call it fate. But please, let's not call it luck. That's the stuff that losers cry.
I think we might be trying to say something similar but are getting caught up on words. To me, luck isn't a positive or a negative. It's just something that is uncontrollable and unpredictable. It just happens. True, the Cubs seem to have some form of mental block when it comes to hitting with runners on base. They seem to change their approach, swing at bad balls and not swing at the good one -- hence the numbers you showed above. However, they got to that point by having some uncontrollably unlucky things happen. When things are going wrong, people tend to overreact and overcompensate. Almost everyone involved with the Cubs has talked about that this year. That is why the numbers are so skewed -- and that is why I see this as a one year fluke. That to me is "luck".
for your civil response on this issue. And I am confidant that we are more in agreement than not. However, let me add this to the discussion. Some players respond well during periods of stress. Others over react. I would suggest that those who flourish in times of stress are what I call clutch players. The basketball player who short arms a free throw in the last seconds of a close game isn't unlucky. He's simply not maintaining his normal ability. I watch ARam and see a player who seems to rise to the occasion and call him clutch. I see Soriano chase balls well out of the zone and see someone who isn't suited for pressure. Look at the best closers in baseball and they seem to be consistently successful.
for your civil response on this issue. And I am confidant that we are more in agreement than not. However, let me add this to the discussion. Some players respond well during periods of stress. Others over react. I would suggest that those who flourish in times of stress are what I call clutch players. The basketball player who short arms a free throw in the last seconds of a close game isn't unlucky. He's simply not maintaining his normal ability. I watch ARam and see a player who seems to rise to the occasion and call him clutch. I see Soriano chase balls well out of the zone and see someone who isn't suited for pressure. Look at the best closers in baseball and they seem to be consistently successful.
Ok, I see what you're saying, but let me flip it around a little bit. This year, Soriano has expanded his zone and seems really jumpy in those situations. Believe it or not, last year his line with RISP was .276/.380(!)/.595 for an OPS of .975. That was almost 100 points HIGHER than his OPS with the bases empty. He along with a lot of the other Cubs this year have gotten into these slumps that have been made much worse because they change their approach mentally to overcompensate. You know the old saying -- trying to hit a 3-run HR with the bases empty phenomenon. They just can't shake these mental dull-drums, and they may need a vacation (i.e. October - January) to clear their heads and start fresh.
Now, in an usual year under normal circumstances, players remain consistent when it comes to their approach at the plate. Aramis Ramirez may look more clutch because he is such a consistently excellent player who is a tough out regardless of the situation -- but when it comes down to it, "luck" more or less determines the outcome for players like him.
I expect spikes in things like BA and HR in some years but my contention is that over a career we can look at the discrepancy in BA RISP and without RISP.
Soriano career BA w/RISP .251 BA .279
Ramirez career BA w/RISP .297 BA .285
When there is a positive increase in BA of over 12 points for ARam and a negative of over 28 points for Sori, I find it compelling. I would not agree that is luck.
What the commenter forgot to point out though is that the Cubs have a low LD% against, the highest infield flyball % against, and the lowest contact % against in baseball. This means they are getting weak swings on a lot of the balls put in play - which is an indication of good stuff by the pitching staff.
When it comes to RISP it's important to point out that players RISP average usually vary from year to year.
Also, let me dispel a nasty rumor about sabermetricians that deals in areas like these: We do take into account human nature. For me personally, it's about 70/30 stats/human. You all know people who perform better under stress than others -- that is the same in baseball. However, when it comes down to it, that just puts them into a better "position" for positive results, but does not guarantee the same.
Luck is the single most undervalued aspect on both sides of the debate.
discuss the measures you brought forth, I intended to dispel the babip as reflecting a bad luck influence on our results. Certainly our starting pitching has carried the team this year and I respect that.
I deeply respect numbers which is why I mentioned the ones I did. And while RISP will vary with players from year to year, I think you'd agree that as the numbers of events rise, so also does the representation of the numbers. That is why I used the team's numbers rather than individual players.
However, I would disagree with your premise that luck is the single most undervalued aspect. Certainly on a single at bat, that MAY be the case. However, over 1 million at bats, luck ceases to be an issue. I would stipulate that the team has had enough plate appearances this year to dismiss any significance to the factoring of luck into our season. We are who we seem to be, a team seriously flawed offensively.
As i mentioned in a post below, Arizona was outscored in 2007 by 2 runs for the year, yet they won 90 games while only losing 72. That is luck lasting over a 162 game span, You are spot on with your observation that the Cubs are seriously flawed offensively. I would only argue that based on numbers and projections, this seems to be a one year fluke that - with a few right bounces and less injuries - can turn on it's head going into 2010. The foundation should be able to rebound and make a run next year. There is no excuses for how 2009 has turned out. It seems to be a lost year, but that happens. It's just important not to overreact.
that this year was a bust. Certainly injuries played a part. But all too often we have seen too many players gag when they had an opportunity to rise to the occasion. And while rookies and younger players have the ability to become better in stress at bats, veterans are usually doomed to continuing their inability to overcome their stress anxiety.
Perhaps I am being too pessimistic when I feel there are too many players who are doomed to repeat their failures. Unfortunately many of them have contracts that make moving them difficult or impossible. Will the starters repeat their performances next year? Was Soto a flash in the pan? What will our GM do with Heilman and Miles? Will Fontenot rebound and is Wells for real? Have Fukudome and Bradley figured it out?
Let's meet again next year and see how it plays out?
With everything that has gone awry this year, the key is not to be too optimistic or pessimistic. Yes it looks like the Cubs as a team could use a heavy dose of Paxil or something, but ultimately track records suggest everything will meet more towards the middle between 2008 and 2009. Obviously there is not exact science here, but let say the Cubs end up around 83-84 wins. Obviously they are not as bad as their record/stats have been this year, but they are probably not as good as their record/stats in 2008. So the middle ground would be an 89-92 win season. Who wouldn't take that in a heartbeat for 2010?
92 wins for 2010. It would certainly make for a rewarding and anxiety free year. But there are just so many variables that I can't feel comfortable it will occur for me to not keep my eraser handy. Besides, I do have a healthy regard for the adrenalin rush that the Cubs usually bring to my life.
I expect Sori and Bradley to improve. But I don't expect our starters to throw as well next year. I don't know if Soto will be back to 2008 standards and is Wells the real deal? Is he a budding Maddux or will we revisit the Prior and Hill careers? Will our GM keep Miles and Heilman? Is Fontenot a potential comeback player or was last year his 15 minutes? Which Dempster will we see. Likewise, how will Zambrano fare without a weekly visit to the Gatorade dispenser?
Ultimately, the disparity between the 2008 and 2009 clubs bewilders my attempts at prognostication. Such is the fate of a fact based Cubs fan.
I HATE that debate! Just can't convince people that clutch isn't a skill.
Hendry has to go.
I have long been a supporter of Jim Hendry, but as this season crashes he cannot be held blameless. The Cubs problems start with his high-priced, free-agent outfield that is probably the worst in all of baseball. Not only do they all have serious flaws to their game, their big contracts make them impossible to get rid of. Face it Cubs fans, we're stuck with Soriano, Bradley and Fukodome for years.
Big contracts to the Three Stooges, as well as mediocre starters like Dempster and Zambrano have financially wrecked this franchise. Some blame the team's ownership woes for the team's problems, but why would any responsible owner allow Hendry to spend a dime with he track record?
Samardzjia had a .920 OPS against him coming into the game and it actually went up. He's had to essentially give up on his change up because it was getting ripped at a terrible rate and there isn't an appreciable speed diff on his other pitches which have flattened out this year. His K rate has dropped to almost half last year's numbers. Bottom line. He needs to go back to AA and learn how to become a pitcher. Don't even bring him up in September.
We are very close to hearing a fat lady sing the 7th inning dirge. No more foolish decisions by Lou and no more excuses from anyone. Gut check time.
First off, thanks Bruce for expanding on the LD% that I brought up yesterday -- Again, it's too bad we can't see this type of analysis from the other Chicago outlets.
Now, we can all sit around and moan about who's to blame for this year. Sure, Hendry made some bad signings - ahem, Miles - and Lou has made some questions calls - like starting Samardzija today over one of those batting cage robot pitchers - but when it comes down to, the tale of the 2009 Cubs can be traced to three things:
1) Injuries
2) Under performance based on track records/projections
3) Luck
1 is obvious. Injuries have destroyed this team. There is no need to beat this dead horse, but the Cubs have had an inordinate amount of injuries this year (rivaled only by the Mets). This is not an excuse; this is simply a fact. Injuries can ruin a season, plain and simple.
2 is also pretty obvious. None thought Fontenot would struggle as much as he has. Soto has had a lost year. Bradley didn't start hitting for two months. Marmol can't find the plate. Lee took April off. Gregg has turned into a latter-day Borowski. Soriano is out of wack mentally at the plate. The list goes on and on. They are so far below projections, it's ridiculous. Now, for a little opitmism, some of this can be traced to 3.
3 - Luck, yes luck has not been on the Cubs side this year. From the fluky injuries, to the LD/BABIP, RISP, QSwin%... It's just been one of the those years. Now these types of things usually even out in the long run -- but sometimes they can last a whole year. Hell, Arizona was OUTSCORED a few years ago, yet won 90 games. Unfortunately, this seems like that kind of year for the Cubs.
No one should be ready to write off this year -- and let me tell you if the Cubs can sneak into the playoffs (and be healthy) they will be a force to be reckoned with. Really. The playoffs are such a crapshoot, who knows what can happen.
Anyway, my point is the future is not lost. Hendry has constructed a team that will complete for and probably win a division/w.c. if not this year than probably next year. The players' track records are too good to carry this struggle through to next year. Once luck, performance and injuries even out, the Cubs should be able to succeed. The big question is when.
Great post. I'm a stat junkie as well but still realize no matter how deep I dig into the numbers to find answers to why the Cubs stink I come to realize that this team is cursed. I have stopped any emotional involvent with this team and just sit back and watch the comedy unfold.
Its refreshing to see some analysis based on that information rather than the standard analysis based on emotion.
I disagree with the future though.
$118 million tie up into 8 players already for next season. I'm guessing that doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room without moving a contract. We'll have the same 8 contracts next year and more AAA/role players than even this season.
Thank you for the compliment. It's nice to see some civil discourse on these things sometimes. When it comes to salary concerns, we don't know how much the new owners will spend, but when it comes to the off season, the Cubs won't be looking to add much more NEW salary. Look at the probably 2010 starters who's already locked up for next year:
Lee
Theriot
Ramirez
Fukudome
Bradley
Soriano
Soto
Plus the entire rotation of:
Zambrano
Lilly
Wells
Gorz
Dempster
Sure, the bullpen will need some pieces added, but bullpen is cheap -- there are some in house fixes thanks to DeRosa. The other area of need is 2nd base. We'll still have Fontenot and he may get another shot. However, I would go and see if I can drop 5-10 million on Felipe Lopez or Orlando Hudson for a year or two.
You see the 118 committed is not all bad. It's about adding small pieces now and praying for health and normalcy to return.
At Peoria, Ted Lilly pitched 5 scoreless innings, giving up 2 hits (both in the first) while walking one and striking out two. He threw 58 pitches, 45 strikes. I asked the Cubs if he could come up here and pitch the final few innings tonight.
...Cubs pitchers are serving up BP right now.
Samardjiza is just awful. He has done nothing to stay at the major league level - I hope the Cubs send him down tonight. And I'm not being dramatic here - if the Cubs don't turn it around quickly, they are going to find themselves 8 games out by Sunday night. And then, you can probably stick a fork in them.
He probably needs to spend an entire season at Triple-A as a starter and not be messed with back and forth.
I think Samardzija picked the wrong sport...$10M and a no-trade clause...yikes.
... but that would require having a GM with a plan... This club's GM knows nothing about modern baseball. He doesn't get the important metrics, doesn't know how to scout, and places too much emphasis on performance in contract years. $56M to Dempster and $30M to Bradley. And I'm not even getting started on Soriano and Fukudome. Sheesh...
he pitching for a team that thought it was good enough to win a world series? It getting out of hand and there are too many excuses.
..they're just up there hacking away.
Is there one player, besides Aramis, that would start for Philly? Nice 135 million team Hendry...
The Cubs season is based upon Ramirez's left shoulder. As soon as that thing finally blows out, the Cubs are done.
Should be a good night for Bruce to get some quotes. HOpefully, that door will be locked and Lou will be railing this team for playing like a bunch of entitled jerks. I would say a player, but I don't see anyone on this team that gives a crap.
Maybe the new owner will fire Hendry. But I hope he doesn't. Hendry should be forced to watch this train wreck he assembled for 2 or 3 more years. Just put it in perspective: Soriano, Fukudome and Bradley will earn a combined $42M next season. Are any of them slugging over .400?
Is that you have 2 pitchers and 2 hitters getting paid a TON who aren't putting up the numbers.
Zambrano still hasn't lived up to the contract he signed. yes, he's had some bad luck this year, but has this guy ever won 18 games? Is he considered an ace around baseball? Not sure.
Dempster is signed for big money and is dog crap, unless he's on a Rocky training regime in a contract year.
You now have a 15 million dollar lead off hitter in Fukudome and a 10 million dollar 2 hole hitter in Bradley. Both were expected to be 20 hr guys and drive in over 80+. Neither will do so.
THis team is in deep crap for the next couple of years, and the pieces can't be moved. Nice job Jimmy.
Lou and Hendry must have lost their mind??? First, is Lou trying to lose games...why in the world does he keep leaving Marmol in games so long. Plus, he keeps him in the late innings. It's like he wants him to blow it! (before I get a bunch of grief...I know he is not really trying to lose). And today they are STARTING Samardzija??? What are they doing???
It's like they keep on expecting all these guys to live up to their past performance. Guess what? That's why they call it a DOWN YEAR. Marmol is either lights or just horrible. After the second walk, Grabow should have been up ASAP in case Marmol struggled with all the lefties coming up. Instead, Lou sat in the dugout and cursed while Marmol whined about not getting close calls. Please. Throw one near the strike zone, and maybe you get the benefit of the doubt.
I'm done with Hendry. The man needs to go. This is the beginning of the BS we are about to watch thanks to Mr. No Trade Clause. I can't wait to hear him spin on why this team has failed. Ownership not allowing him to add payroll, but you know what, would you allow a guy to add more when he gives Aaron Miles a 2 yr deal, or signs guys way before he should, or outbids himself in the market? Me neither.
Down 8-1, and about to be 4 out.....
to become a a SOX fan :0 AHHHH. LOL They get better players of the waiver wire then we sign:) Williams is lining them up to have nice team next year.
...gonna have to grind. Can't afford to fall too far behind..
After a long hiatus, figured I throw my thoughts out there for what they are worth....
-A-ram: I wouldn't be shocked if this is not the last time we here about him being in pain and needing days off. In fact, I would guess that Fox will have to play a lot more to keep A-ram as healthy as can be. Sadly, this takes away the MVP for the Cubs, and greatly weakens this team. Unless they get a typical Soriano hot streak for a 7-10 days, the Cubs are in trouble. D-Lee has been very good, but he can't be expected to carry this team all year. Bradley is now the most expensive 2 hole hitter in recent memory.
-Injuries: I already sense a bit of spin in Hendry's tone about why this team has failed. Which really aggravates me because he over valued a LOT of people who flat out imploded right in his face, and left this team with little depth. To assume Soto and Fontenot would repeat last year's performance was a grave mistake, and has killed this team all year. Jeff Baker should never have been on this team, but a panicked Hendry had to do something, and now this guy is starting in the crunch while Fontenot sits and rot, like he should have been all year long.
-Pitching: Hopefully, Zambrano and Lilly come back strong. Along with Harden, they should get 3 of 5 quality games, and then hope that Wells can keep up his string, and then PRAY you can get anything out of Dempster who has been a bust. I know he's having off the field issues, but he's pitching like pure crap. Hopefully the DL stints will give the Cubs pitchers fresh arms and allow them to go on some sort of run.
I don't know. They are 3 games back, and lucky to be there but at some point the Cardinals will go on an extended run and I just don't see how the Cubs combat that. Dave Duncan is the best pitching coach in baseball, and will get the absolute most out of Pinero and Lohse. They also have a shutdown closer in Franklin, and a deep lineup that rivals the Cubs from last year.
So I think it's time to start worrying about the wildcard. Cubs need to take advantage of divisional games, and they have to win a bunch of these games they have in hand.
This may be too negative for some of you, but this team hasn't won a series against an above .500 team since May. That right there tells me that they are mediocre at best.