The big underdogs
The Cubs have gone from prohibitive favorites in the NL Central to “big underdogs,” to hear Lou tell it. And he seems to love it.
“I don’t pay attention to anything," he said when asked about the standings. "Nobody gives us a chance. Just keep it that way.”
So I figured I’d ask Lou what he thought of his team being written off.
“I love it,” he said. “I hope they continue to write that. It would be nice. What people write or don’t write has no bearing on how we do. It’s good. There’s nothing wrong with playing the role of a big underdog. There’s nothing wrong with that. We’ve got to go out and play on the field regardless of what people write or don’t write. The less attention, the better.”
Lineup
Theriot, SS
Bradley, RF
Lee, 1B
Ramirez, 3B
Fukudome, CF
Fox, LF
Fontenot, 2B
Soto, C
Zambrano, P
Alfonso Soriano is supposed to see the doc this morning, and he may get a cortisone shot in his left knee. The Cubs say the MRI yesterday turned up inflammation. Lou said he hopes that Soriano is good to go by Tuesday night against Houston. In the meantime, Fox will be the left fielder. Yesterday, Jake said he’s as proud of his defensive work as anything else.
"The biggest thing that I'm happy about is that I'm showing, not only this organization but Lou, that I'm not a liability defensively,” he said. “I'm going out every day and playing very solid defense. That's the important thing because I think their biggest concern in bringing me here was with my defense, being able to go out on the field and not hurt them, being able to help them with my bat and not hurt them in the field. And I think I've shown them that. To me, that's the biggest improvement and the biggest thing that I've proven to them, that I'm not a liability in the field."
Lou said Jeff Baker is probably available to pinch hit today. He took a grounder off his right pinkie yesterday in BP and went for X-rays, which turned up negative.
In the minors, Tyler Colvin went 2-for-4 yesterday for Tennessee with a triple, a homer and 4 RBI. At Peoria, Kyler Burke was 2-for-4 with 6 RBI. He tripled and hit his 14th homer. Burke is a left-handed hitter the Cubs got from San Diego in the Michael Barrett deal in 2007. At Iowa, Blake Parker recorded his 20th save.
No less than12 Cubs were claimed on waivers--and NOT ONE is traded? What, is this team full of studs so great we can't let them go?
I don't really understand why the Cubs wouldn't trade Rich Harden??? They won't offer him arbitration because he will get too much money, and nobody will give up the picks, so why not get what you can???
Someone can have Heilman! It seems like that guy hasn't really had a place from the moment he lost out on the starters job.
Am I wrong to think it would be better to be terrible for the next 2 months and try and regroup for next year?
offer arbitration. No way Harden takes it, because he is a lock to get a multi year deal from some team.
ruhtra: Doubtful they can sign him thanks to all the Hendry mistakes. They've already got 3 starting pitchers with $11 million salaries, is 4 really a viable option? I don't think so. They'll sign bullpen guys and a middle infielder, and *maybe* an innings eater type.
until the last few days i was always under the impression that the player had to accept the arbitrators decision.............so Harden can refuse and walk!..............Bruce was saying if they offer arbitration and he walks, the team signing him will have to give up a 1st round draft pick/S................Hendry really screwed things up.............
When the team offers arbitration, the player may elect to decline and become a free agent, or accept, if which case both the team and player submit salaries and the arbitrators decide which of the two the player will receive. Of course, a good portion of the time the player and team agree to meet in the middle before it goes to the arbitrators. Hendry has never had a player actually go to arbitration, which is a good thing. It's said to be a very touchy and negative scenario where a team has to point out flaws in a player to justify their offer. Bruce was referring to the situation when a team offers arbitration and the player is then signed by another team after he declines arbitration. The team that signs him would lose their first round pick (if it's in the bottom half of the first round....one of the top 15 teams in W-L record) or second round pick if the pick is in the top half of the first round (team with one of the worst W-L records). Bruce can explain it better I'm sure but that's it in a nutshell.
He could decline arbitration. If teams are not willing to give up a draft pick...then he can wait until later in the year and the Cubs get nothing. After thinking about it a little longer...I think HENDRY blew this again. He should have gotten a top end prospect and called it a day. A draft pick doesn't automatically become a solid prospect. As the Cubs know all too well.
I have to respect Williams he realizes when his team is out of it...he makes moves to get young talent. But he also doesn't really have a ton of terrible contracts so it is easier to rebuild. HE IS HANDS DOWN A BETTER GM THEN HENDRY.
...is Harden this season. He's going to at least get the draft picks out of it. 2 draft picks, at worst both in the top 70ish, have more value than what Minnesota was apparently willing to offer.
Worst case scenario is that some rich team like the Yankees sign Harden, but also sign higher rated Type A's than Harden. This would mean the Yanks 1st round pick goes to whatever team lost that higher rated free agent. And the compensation for Harden would drop down to the Yanks 2nd round plus a sandwich pick.
What are the last two first or second round picks that have panned out for the Cubs? If you said Kerry would you are right...that is it...no 2nd rounders...oh wait...there was a 2nd rounder back in 1985 named Greg Maddux. Oh and the next best 1 rounder after Wood...you need to go all the way back to 1982...Shawn Dunston. Not a very good % payoff my friend. I would much rather get a couple of guys that are close then trying to see if a 1st rounder or 2nd rounder is going to pan out.
This is the list of 1st round picks since 1998...It is pathetic...and the 2nd round is worse.
,Brett Jackson, Andrew Cashner,Ryan Flaherty, Josh Vitters, Josh Donaldson, Tyler Colvin, Mark Pawelek, Ryan Harvey, Bobby Brownlie, Luke Hagerty, Chadd Blasko, Matthew Clanton, Mark Prior, Luis Montanez, Ben Christensen, Corey Patterson, Jon Garland, Todd Noel, Kerry Wood
Jackson, Cashner, Flaherty and Vitters were drafted since '07, with Jackson, Cashner and Flaherty coming since '08, so it's kind of unfair to say they wont' work out. We dont' know yet. They used Josh Donaldson to get Rich Harden. Colvin has come on in the second half of this year after Tommy John surgery. The others are fair game, but I think you've got to give Wilken time to see what he can do. A lot of his picks are moving quickly up the ladder, including guys like Cashner, Coleman and Carpenter. Flaherty has come on at Peoria, and Jackson has played well there.
Bruce,
I didn't say that anyone wouldn't work out. I was just pointing out that history has not been kind to the Cubs. I know we don't know what will happen with the last couple drafts...but we do know about the last 25 years and history proves that we haven't had much success...All I was saying is that a couple of high prospects might have been better then a couple of draft picks. Again, I don't even know what was offered if anything.
Riggs: using the logic that no previous cubs 1st or 2nd rounders have panned out is the same thing as saying that the cubs haven't won the world series in the last 100 years, so why bother trying?
It doesn't matter what happened last year, 5 years ago, 100 years ago, next year is next year.
The reason we are saying the Cubs HAVEN'T won a WS in 100 years is beacuse so few prospect have worked out. We have been lucky enough to flease a few GM's for Lee and Ramirez or we would be in real trouble
You have to chuckle at the list of Cubs first round picks that Riggs has provided us today. It looks like the Blackhawks train wreck of picks before Tallon came on board as GM.
Hopefully the new Cubs regime will hire someone that can actually evaluate young talent.
yes i agree he won't be back.........can't blame him for going for the big buck...it would be nice to know who they wanted from the twins.....
well i like Harden, as cowboy says he figured out his off season work program, people say we don't know about Harden, well, we don't know about Wells, Dempster, Zambrano.........it would be a shame to see him become an ace with another team........we took chances with lesser pitchers/players, why not him?........when he's on he's awesome, and with only 2 pitches.......he's been better the 2nd half, maybe if Lou lets him go 6-7 instead of yanking him automatically after 5........a good GM can get around most things, if they want they can sign him........there used to be a time when team mates would take a cut so management could sign a good/player team mate.....anyway that's what i believe.......
Harden and Heilman are going nowhere. Look for Harden on the mound at a Wrigley Field near you tonight.
Thanks Bruce. When is the budget identified for next year? Hendry always says that he's always been able to spend some dollars when needed to improve the club. Until this offseason, when they "had" to trade Marquis (and DeRosa) to free up money to sign Bradley, payroll never seemed to be such an issue for the Cubs. Heck, look at how much they foolishly spent on Soriano. If they were able to deal Soriano and/or Bradley (and eat some salary of course), shouldn't that free up close to if not all of the dollars it would take to keep Harden? I know which guy I'd want to keep out of the three.
In past year, the budget has been set sometime around the organization meetings, in late October. With the change in ownership looming, I don't know what that does for the timetable this off-season.
Yes, I imagine there would be a delay since it's taken so long to make an agreement to purchase for a specific dollar amount. Hopefully, Ricketts (reportedly a huge Cub fan) will see the window of opportunity closing for the Cubs and will go all out to win right away in 2010. Then there would be time to go into rebuilding mode, trim payroll and make repairs/upgrades to Wrigley Field while Cub fans nationwide are content for the rest of their lives having finally seen the Cubs win a World Series. They could probably sell enough "World Champion Cubs" memorabilia alone to pay player salaries for the following two or three years.
I see the main reasoning for trading him being salary. Even though there isn't much left on the contract this season, if the Cubs offer him arbitration, which they are kind of saying they would do if they don't trade him, they are once again going to be on the hook for an expensive salary at a position that they could slot a cheaper player into.
Now, I understand that Samardzija, Atkins, Gorz, Marshall, etc. might not put the up the same kind of #'s as Harden but this is a spot where the Cubs should take advantage of saving some money. Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells, Marshall/Gorz/etc should be a good enough rotation in the NL Central.
Trade Harden for a couple of prospects, hope they pan out and if they don't at least the Cubs have opened up a good line of communication for the future if the Twins are looking to dump some guys.
I do have to say that I've enjoyed Harden's tenure as a Cub. It's not often that you get to see a starting pitcher dominate a lineup while only using two pitches.
I like the way Harden pitches -- when he's healthy -- but don't think the Cubs can afford him. Let's face it, Hendry has hamstrung the team with big-money, long-term deals to Soriano, Bradley, Koske, Big Zero and Dempster. I don't include Lee and Ramirez because, unlike the others, they have earned their pay. Now is the time to unload salary, so the Cubs can finds some "real" ballplayers who want to play here.
is to keep him and offer him arbitration. It is a no lose situation. If you keep him, you have one of the top 20 starters in the league. If you lose him, you get 2 draft picks that are likely to have better upside than anything the Twins can offer. There is hardly a Matt Garza in the Twins system right now.
Personally, I think the Cubs need to keep Harden. He is clearly our best pitcher when he is right, and he has made almost all his starts this year. And he is really as close as we have to an ace right now. Zambrano is a #2 at best(regardless of what he thinks or how good he thinks he is). Dempster is a #4. Lilly is a solid #2. Wells looks like a solid mid rotation guy as well. Rotation depth is not a problem. The lack of an ace could be.
Great post cubmadness, and I agree completely about the Cubs not having an "ace" but having rotation depth. I totally concur that Zambrano isn't an ace and I see this as a vitally important need for the post season. Harden is as you said, the closest thing the Cubs have to an ace. I view Lilly as more of a mid-rotation (#3) man for a championship calibar team. Wells would fit there also if based on this season, but we can't count on those numbers for 2010. As opposing teams get to see more of him, they are going to figure out ways to succeed against him more than they did this year. It could be argued that Dempster was a #2 last year, but he's reverted to a bottom of the rotation guy this year. Gorzellany is an unknown. Any beyond those guys, the Cubs really don't have much for options to fill a void if one of those starters is hurt. If they deal Harden, they would lose one of those six SP options. Samardzija certainly hasn't shown that he's ready to pitch effectively at the big league level, and have major doubts that he ever will. The expression "you can never have enough pitching" has never been more true.
I'm not certain that Harden is the closest thing to an ace the Cubs have or one of the top 20 starting pitchers in baseball. I actually just did my own count and he's just outside the top 30.
He has never won more than 11 games in a season, he's only averaging (roughly) 5 2/3 ip each outing this season, which is right on course with his career average and after he makes his next start it will be his second highest games started total (23) in his career. He has the fewest innings pitched on the staff. The 'lose situation' is if you sign him to a two or three year deal and he only makes 15-20 starts per year at $12 million per.
In comparison, Z has averaged nearly 6 ip per outing for his career (and this season), 13 or more wins in each of the last six innings and hasn't made less than 30 starts in those six seasons.
Let's look at a true 'ace', Roy Halladay. He's averaging 6.5 ip for his career (all of these include relief outings), has won 12 or more games 7 out of the last 8 seasons and if he makes four more starts this year he will have made 30+ starts in 6 out of the last 8 seasons.
Yes, Harden has 'ace' quality pitches but he doesn't have 'ace' quality durability. The Cubs have players in their system who can get you double digit wins in the next three seasons. Since we're stuck with some very expensive contracts, let's use this spot as one where we can use a cheap alternative and get similar results.
If the Cubs feel like they can increase the budget by $15mill+ next season then don't let him go, otherwise this will be another Hendry folly.
Not every team is going to have an ace. Not even every good team, but the Cardinals have 2 right now and Pineiro has been as good as anybody on our team. So that is 2 starters better than ours and 1 (and maybe 2 with Smoltz if they keep him) who are as good as anyone we have. Unless the Cubs can trade for a Halladay, then Harden is as good as we are going to do.
I would offer him a 2 year deal at around 10 million per year(with a team option for a 3rd), with the understanding that if he did NOT accept, then we would offer arbitration. Offering a player arbitration decreases his market value, because not only do teams have to pay money, but also draft picks. Lately teams have been reluctant to do that.
Don't get cheap on the pitching staff. It is really the only place we can hope to improve, unless it is at second base.
The way I see it, this team needs a top relief pitcher and an upgrade at 2nd base or catcher. I am still hopeful that since Soto has lost his starting job, that he will spend the offseason getting in shape, instead of smoking dope.
I wasn't suggesting that the Cubs sign Harden for another two or three year deal. I was suggesting they offer him arbitration, taking a much safer route by only commiting to Harden for a single season. I also didn't say that he's an ace, only that he's the closest thing the Cubs have to being an ace. Win totals for a pitcher aren't a very good measure of how good he is. So many things factor into the number of wins, including the quality of defense behind him and most importantly, run support. I'll agree that innings per start is important for a SP in compiling wins, but are you implying that Zambrano is more of an "ace" than Harden because he's averaging about one more out per start? It goes without saying that the number of starts made is of significant value and that's why I would only recommend taking on another one year risk with Harden to see if he could stay relatively healthy in consecutive seasons. Halladay is undeniably an ace, and if the Cubs were confident that they would be able to strike a deal for him this winter, then by all means deal Harden and chop some more payroll to fit Halladay into the budget.
Zambrano is closer to being an ace because of his production, durability, etc. Didn't Bruce just run a post a few weeks ago from BP showing that Z has been more productive than most realize? Is he Halladay, Carpenter, Santana, Lincecum, etc? No, but he's the best we have.
I'm going to try to go about this a different way. If they can/do, what do you think the Cubs are going to re-sign Harden for? $10-12 million?
Say the Cubs have $10-$12 million to work with this offseason. You re-sign Harden and you are done. Instead, what are the problem areas for the Cubs where they could make improvements?
1. Second Base
2. Bullpen
All of the other positions are set for next season: 1b, SS, 3b, LF, CF, RF. That leaves you with second base and the bullpen. I think we are all on the same page there. I don't believe the new ownership is going to give out a blank check and any contracts the Cubs are able to trade they will still have to pay some fraction of.
So, by not re-signing Harden the Cubs have $10-$12 million to spend. What do they do? Orlando Hudson? Billy Wagner? Felipe Lopez? Chone Figgins? Mike Gonzalez? Fernando Rodney? Rafael Soriano? Jose Valverde? Brandon Lyon? re-sign Grabow? Joe Beimel? I don't know what these guys will sign for but there is a slew of them out there this Winter.
Point being that if the Cubs don't have an endless amount of money to spend, they can use Harden's money to solidify multiple spots on the roster.
At the end of this, let's keep in mind that Gorzellany's high in victories is 14, 3 more than Harden. Sean Marshall had 7 wins in 19 starts in 2007. Next year they might earn a combined $1.2 million.
So, is the production you are going to get from Harden worth more than the production you could get from signing players for the bullpen and to play 2b? I say no.
Best case scenario right now is that he wins out the rest of the season and the Red Sox jump at him for 3/$13 million per and the Cubs get draft picks.
What would I do? Send Fox to winter ball to learn 2b, let Harden go, have Gorzelanny/Marshall/Samardzija/Atkins fight it out for the #5 spot in the rotation, and re-sign Grabow for $4 million. Then you have $8 million in the pocket to use later. If Fox can't cut it at 2b, sign Figgins, Lopez or Hudson for $6-$8 million which is a significant raise for all of them. If you can get one for $6 million then you use the extra $2 mil to buy out Miles.
I roll into next season with this lineup/roster:
Figgins/Lopez/Hudson - 2b
Bradley - RF
Lee - 1b
Ramirez - 3b
Fukudome - CF
Soriano - LF
Soto - C
Theriot - SS
Bench: Jeff Baker (1b/2b/3b), Koyie Hill (C), Jake Fox (3b, LF, RF, 1b), Andres Blanco (SS/2b), Sam Fuld (OF) - sorry Reed Johnson
Zambrano
Lilly
Dempster
Wells
Marshall/Gorzelanny/Samardzija
Shuttle guy from Iowa/Chicago
Justin Berg
the loser of Marshall/Gorzelanny
Jeff Stevens
John Grabow
Angel Guzman
Carlos Marmol - closer
....Fox isn't a second baseman. He's stepped in admirably for Ramirez at 3B, but he's not going to be able to be the Cubs everyday second baseman...though it would be funny to watch baserunners bounce off of him when they try to foil the double play.
Uggla isn't the best 2b either but it gets his bat in the lineup. I said the Cubs send Fox out this Winter to find out if he can play 2b and I still have my projected lineup with Fox on the bench so I think we agree in the probability of it actually happening.
Doesn't cause any harm to try it in winter ball.
So you believe the value of a SP is their durability and their W-L record, yet you turn around and say that Zambrano is no Halladay, Carpenter, Santana, Lincecum? No argument on Halladay or Santana. But Carpenter and Lincecum? I went back thru 2005 to take into account the most recent five years, and Carpenter has never made more starts than Zambrano. He's pitched more innings than Zambrano in 3 of the 5 years. And this is the first year that Carpenter has more wins. As for Lincecum, if you are comparing pitchers based on durability, how do you even compare a kid in his third year in the majors?
Zambrano the best the Cubs have? Harden and Dempster had ERA's of 2.07 and 2.96 last year versus 3.91 for our supposed ace. Harden was 10-2, Dempster 17-6, Lilly 17-9, and Zambrano 14-6. So both Harden and Dempster had better win percentages than Zambrano. And if you are going to say that Zambrano won four more games than Harden, don't you also have to say that Harden lost four fewer games? Dempster made more starts than Zambrano, won more games, had a lower WHIP, BAA, OBP, and OPS, and finished with an ERA just under a run lower. Lilly also started more games and won more games than Zambrano, and had a lower WHIP, BAA, and OBP.
Where has big Z been this year when the Cubs really needed him? He's got his third consecutive season going with an ERA between 3.91 and 3.95, and I don't think many people will claim that is ace material, especially not in the NL. Harden made five less starts and won four less games, but he also lost four fewer games, posted an ERA almost two runs lower than Zambrano, and blew Z away in WHIP, BAA, OBP, and OPS.
As for the importance of W-L records for pitchers, how do you explain that the same pitchers (Harden, Dempster, Lilly and Zambrano) were 10-2, 17-6, 17-9, and 14-6 last year, but are 8-7, 8-7, 9-8, and 7-6 this year? That's a combined 58-23 last year versus 32-28 this year? Obviously, there are a number of other things that factor into W-L records for pitchers.
As for team needs, they definitely need to improve the bullpen. And I also agree that they could stand to improve at 2B, but had Ramirez not missed a couple months, Soto had not given new definition to sophomore slump, and Soriano managed to do better than a .243 BA and .733 OPS, then nobody would be expressing concern about 2B. In fact, Baker is second on the team in BA and third in OPS behind only Ramirez and Lee.
Your opinion is that the Cubs are set with starters at the positions other than 2B (though you didn't include catcher), and I disagree. Why would you think the Cubs are set in LF after the dismal season Soriano has had? I say the Cubs try to sell other teams on the fact that Soriano hasn't been healthy and be willing to pay $10M/yr or so of his salary. They would probably get more production out of a Fox/Hoffpauir duo for around $800K combined. So they could afford to eat $10M on Soriano and still save over $7M in LF. If Harden were to get arguably the maximum salary he would get in arbitration $12M, that would mean he would earn $5M more than this year. So bringing back Harden for another year and ditching Soriano might just save the Cubs a couple million dollars.
The roster you have identified for heading into 2010 has some major concerns if you ask me. A cancer still manning RF, a major disappointment with the bat and glove in LF, a regular catcher who has just had a terrible sophomore season, an "ace" who is far from being an ace, and a very, very shaky looking bullpen. $4M for John Grabow? No thanks. Counting on Marmol as closer with nobody else to turn to, after he's given up a BB/IP this year? Counting on Stevens and Berg? Samardzija? And if you let Harden go and count on a rotation of Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells and Gorzellany, what happens if one or two of those guys get hurt? The Cubs have next to no depth in SP in their minor league system, at least not guys who are major league ready.
Atkins, Samardzija, Atkins and Cashner all could be ready next season and that's not including Marshall, either. Where was Wells projected to be at the end of last season? The one thing the Cubs have is depth in their pitching staff. Lou likes hard throwers out of the bullpen so if Stevens/Berg do well in ST then they'll have a spot. It will go _____, Guzman and Marmol next season. They'll have a primary lefty in Grabow/Beimel and hopefully a secondary lefty in Marshall/Gorz. Outside of that they need a shuttle guy and then someone to fill what used to be the Mike Wuertz 5/6th inning role. That goes to a young, inexperienced, cheap pitcher. I would give Grabow or another quality lefty $4 million, yes. I don't worry about production in RF, I don't think you can move Soriano in LF, I'm not worried about the catcher position (not that I'd have a chance to in the upcoming weak FA session for catchers) and I don't think the Cubs are taking on any more salary to get an 'ace'. I think that new management is going to come in and sit on the payroll initially and even ask Hendry to slash some of it possibly.
It's my belief that the Cubs are going to have a very difficult time shipping out Bradley and Soriano so I'm not even going to begin to work with those hypotheticals. They'd have to still pay probably close to $50 million on Soriano's contract just to get someone to take him. I'm not a fan of that. I think the Cubs are 'stuck' with those players. Unless Harden gets injured or bombs the rest of the season I doubt he's going to accept arbitration. Why would he when he can get a multi-year deal elsewhere? I don't have any problems with the catcher position heading into next season. Anything Soto gives offensively is a plus, anything Hill gives defensively is league average.
I also like Baker but he could become more of a DeRosa type that plays all over the place, except for the outfield. If you are looking for a place to improve the team offensively without paying tremendously, second base is the place to start.
I attribute the difference in W/L records for the pitchers this season to the lack of offense. The starting rotation has done their job. Bruce has all the quality start info but the problem with this team is not the rotation. In fact, this rotation is one of the best in the NL this season and that's with all of the injuries.
As for where Z has been this season, I encourage you to check out the link I put up earlier from Bruce's post on how Z is/was having a better season than most realize.
I think Dempster was the ace last year and Lilly is the ace this season. I'll give you that. I think I got caught up in the excitement of the post and lost visibility. The argument though isn't if Z is the ace, it's is Harden the ace? He is not.
As for "aces", if you have a Cy Young Award and are following it up with another stellar season, you are an ace in my book. I believe Lincecum hasn't missed multiple starts due to injury in his career so I don't worry about his durability. I'm not sure you can reasonably argue that Carpenter isn't an ace, either. I'm not sure how you statistically verify something like that but I think I'm pretty accurate.
Keep in mind that this all started over wanting/needing Harden because he's an ace. He is not and the money can be spent better elsewhere. Overspending and not thinking down the line is an issue Hendry has had over the past few seasons. The philosophy of this organization shouldn't be to just spend, hope that it clears up the problems and if it doesn't help, just spend to send players elsewhere. That's a recipe for disaster.
I attribute the difference in W/L records for the pitchers this season to the lack of offense.
>>>>>
Precisely why W-L records for pitchers are not a good measuring stick of their ability or value, not by a long shot. Same pitchers, but much less run support turned all of them into .500 pitchers.
As for where Z has been this season, I encourage you to check out the link I put up earlier from Bruce's post on how Z is/was having a better season than most realize.
>>>>>>
Again, he's just under the 4.00 ERA for the third year running. That just isn't "ace" quality, and his tendency to blow up instantly when things don't go his way has impeded his progress, which is really a shame.
I think Dempster was the ace last year and Lilly is the ace this season. I'll give you that. I think I got caught up in the excitement of the post and lost visibility. The argument though isn't if Z is the ace, it's is Harden the ace? He is not.
>>>>>>>
I think the argument was that Harden was the "closest" thing to an ace that the Cubs have, and I have to agree with that argument. Which of the two would you rather have starting for you in game seven of the WS?
I'm not sure you can reasonably argue that Carpenter isn't an ace, either. I'm not sure how you statistically verify something like that but I think I'm pretty accurate.
>>>>>>>
I'm not sure if you were implying that I was, but I didn't say that Carpenter isn't an ace. You were correlating "ace" quality with durability and I was pointing out that Carpenter has missed an awfully high amount of starts in the past three seasons. So if durability equates to being an "ace", how did Carpenter qualify as an ace for you? If you have a SP who has started 33 games per season in each of the last seven or eight years, but has posted ERA's between 4.00 and 4.50 in each of those seasons, does he qualify as an ace because of his durability?
Keep in mind that this all started over wanting/needing Harden because he's an ace. He is not and the money can be spent better elsewhere. Overspending and not thinking down the line is an issue Hendry has had over the past few seasons. The philosophy of this organization shouldn't be to just spend, hope that it clears up the problems and if it doesn't help, just spend to send players elsewhere. That's a recipe for disaster.
>>>>>>>
Again, it was only said that Harden was the closest thing the Cubs have to an ace. Harden would be a one-year risk for $10-12M at most if they offer him arbitration and he accepts. Compare that to the $18M/yr that Zambrano is making and ask yourself which is a better value. I agree with you about not spending just to spend it. I agree with spending and getting value for the money while filling holes with quality players. Giving Soriano that contract was a total blunder, period, exclamation mark, end of story. But to simply hang onto him for another five years and watch the rest of his wheels fall off, just because you've already invested so much in him and don't want to spend money for him to play for another team, doesn't seem like a good solution to me.
Zambrano is not close to an Ace. When was the last time he pitched well in a big game. The slightest bit of pressure/importance, and he blows up. He is an innings eater with a high Whip and a decling K rate. His BAA is up again, and he is about to eat himself into becoming the 10th planet. If he couldn't hit, he would lose 3 - 4 more games a year. And as for his durability, check the last 2 seasons. Trips to the DL in both of them, and given his conditioning, I would expect this to become a trend.
I don't mind getting someone else for 2nd base at all. In fact, after I kept Harden, a top flight reliever(Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, etc) and a 2nd baseman who could potentially leadoff would be my top priorities. I guarantee the Cubs have enough money to sign Harden and also add the bullpen arm and the second baseman. Contracts are almost certainly going to be down again this winter.
Miles would be gone somewhere, someway. And while I agree with you that Reed Johnson is not needed, Lou likes him and I fully expect him to be here. Hopefully I am wrong.
that was good
If Z makes the rest of his starts that will give him 28 (if I counted correctly) on the season. That gives him a two year average of 29. That's pretty decent. Unfortunately I can't find that BP link but here's the one from Bruce writing about Z: http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/2411
"Yes, he does some dumb things on some days. Yes, his teammates get tired of seeing those dumb things. Yes, he can act selfishly and immaturely, and he ought to knock a lot of that nonsense off. But the record is pretty darn good. And when he's healthy, he takes the ball."
Where are they getting the money to re-sign Harden, a top flight reliever and a second basemen? I'm under the impression that you think management is going to give Hendry $20 million to use this offseason? I don't think that's realistic. I'd love to see it happen but I don't think it's going to.
I posted this response on a recent blog:
Sure, there's a reason they wouldn't offer arbitration: money. If they don't trade him to the Twins, they have to determine whether they want him for next year. What the front office still doesn't know is its player-payroll budget for next year. Do they have the flexibility to take on $12 million? They don't know yet. Health issues play into this as well. Is a team going to give Harden any more than a two-year deal? We don't know that yet, either. If the Cubs offer arbitration, would other teams back off because they wouldn't want to lose a top pick? It's something around 17 percent of major-leaguers being first-round picks, which is a pretty substantial number given the crap-shoot nature of the baseball draft. So it's not as cut-and-dried as it may seem, at least not yet.
Levine is reporting that Harden / Heilman will not be traded. I hope the Cubs at least offer Harden arb so that they will get something in return if he walks. Right now we can use as many high draft picks as possible. I have to think someone will make a run at Harden given his potential and the signs that he's shown of having figured out an off season program that can keep him healthy.