Stevens up for Pitt series
We'll try to get a few Cubs words in edgewise here in our crowded little blog cabin. The Cubs today brought reliever Jeff Stevens up from Class AAA Iowa. He had a 2.03 ERA down there. Jeff Samardzija pitches the finale for the I-Cubs today, and he'll be back up tomorrow.
Waited down by the Cal-Sag Canal this morning for that barge that goes past PNC Park to bring me the lineup. If I can see it through the coal dust, it looks like this:
Fukudome, CF
Theriot, SS
Lee, 1B
Ramirez, 3B
Bradley, RF
Baker, 2B
Scales, LF
Hill, C
Lilly, P
I thought we might see Soto today after his 2-double effort yesterday. As others have pointed out on earlier blogs, Soto definitely has hit into some bad luck this year. His BABIP is .251, compared with .337 a year ago. If he comes to camp in good shape, I see no reason he can't have a bounce-back year. It'll be interesting to see his CHONE and PECOTA projections for next year.
Speaking of CHONE, here is what it had to say about Derrek Lee's projected line for this year: .293/.376/494. Lee's actual heading into today: .296/.376/.561. PECOTA had Lee at .289/.368/.464 coming into this year.
The other guy sparking a lot of discussion is Theriot, who's back in there today. After watching Andres Blanco's marvelous play on TV yesterday, I couldn't help but think that Theriot doesn't make that play. But, really, how many shortstops do? And as friend-of-the-court Colin Wyers pointed out on the most recent blog, Theriot's UZR shows him to be a little bit above average on defense. John Dewan's Fielding Bible also treated Ryan kindly coming into this season. He gets the job done at short.
Theriot's batting line is .285/.335/.382. His ISO is .097 after it was in the .100s much of the season. CHONE had Ryan for a .355 OBP this year after he put up .387 last year. He's below projections, but you have to be disappointed with the walks and strikeouts this year. He turned a nice walks to strikeouts ratio on its head this year, and not in a good way. He told me in spring training he'd like to even improve on what he did last year, when he walked 73 times and struck out 58. A more consistent and coherent approach at the plate from the get-go next February should help.
In the minors, Jay Jackson moved up from Daytona to Iowa, and he picked up a win, going 6 innings and giving up 5 hits and 1 earned run. As most of you know, Jackson was demoted from Class AA Tennessee to Daytona for disciplinary reasons. No, I don't know why. The Cubs have said it's an internal matter and that they're happy with the way Jackson responded at Daytona. He's one of a handful of pitchers from last year's Tim Wilken draft that made it to Double-A this year. Andrew Cashner, Chris Carpenter and Casey Coleman have done well there.
All three pitchers from the Mark DeRosa trade saw action yesterday, with Stevens being one of them. John Gaub earned his fifth hold at Iowa, and he's got a 1.72 ERA. Chris Archer worked 5 innings for Peoria. He's got a 2.81 ERA. Long term, this trade may pay dividends.
Peoria begins the Midwest League playoffs Wednesday against Cedar Rapids. Tennessee and manager Ryne Sandberg open their playoffs Thursday at Huntsville. Should be a lot of fun.
Enjoy and happy Labor Day.
Bruce,
Respect your work. Love the fact that you'll go on other blogs and chat with the fans.
I've got to ask you about your top 10 list, though. No Jay Jackson?
IMO, Jackson's arguably our top pitching prospect. Cashner has better upside, but Jackson's more consistent on the slider, and his curve/change sound like it's developed this year. His velocity was improved this year as well.
Yes, there was the demotion, and by jumping him to AAA, and skipping AA playoffs, it seems apparent he pissed off someone there. Certainly, character should be a factor in evaluating a future. Furthermore, we don't know how much to read into his control collapse in his last month in Tennessee. Was it a side effect of whatever led to the demotion, or was it a more critical issue? His stuff was just too good for Daytona.
That said, low-mid 90's fastbal, plus slider, decent-solid change/curve is a nice arsenal, and he has some more developmental potential, IMO, due to background. To have him off the top 10 ... I'm fairly stunned.
My Cubs Top 10 or so list would go something like this as of right now
1. Starlin Castro - Potential All-Star shortstop according to a lot of folks (such as BA). I think the Cubs expect to see him at some point in 2010, and he may be in line to be the starting shortstop in 2011.
2. Josh Vitters - I'm concerned, but willing to wait another year.
3. Jay Jackson - Top pitching prospect for me, and I expect to see him in the bigs in 2010.
4. Andrew Cashner - Great upside, has to be more consistent with his slider and develop the change some more. I still wonder if he'll be called up for the pen and be too good to move (think Papelbon).
5. Chris Carpenter - Heck, I'm just happy he stayed healthy. Always had the plus stuff, if he tightens the control, very exciting.
6. Brett Jackson - Very nice start, but it would've been troubling if he didn't do well in the low levels.
7. Hak-ju Lee - A guy who can create some luck, but statistically, has had some luck this year, which suggests to me that the development may take a bit longer.
8. Welington Castillo - I've read that his defense has improved/been more consistent. Had some bad luck with the bat in the first half before raking in the 2nd half. Catchers develop late, and there is good positional value.
9. Dae-Eun Rhee - On ability, is top 5 in the system. A draft pick type nod, as we have some background, an excellent scouting report on his stuff is out there, but a lot of unknowns.
10. Kyler Burke - Absolutely dominated Peoria. He should've been at Daytona, but Daytona fell out of the race and Peoria was in there. There was an early summer swoon, so will be curious how he adjusts.
11. Tyler Colvin - He probably should be a slot or two higher, but I'm not there. Look, he's not a bust of a pick. He'll make it to the upper levels, and likely see some time in the bigs. That's not a Ryan Harvey/Brian Dopirak bust of a pick.
12. Ryan Flaherty - ARL will be mentioned a lot, but like Burke, he probably should've been in Daytona if they had stayed in the race. Very solid season, and tinkered with his swing.
13. Jeffry Antigua - Hard throwing young lefty is arguably our top lefty starting pitching prospect. Excellent season makes me wonder if the Cubs get aggressive and send him to Daytona to start 2010?
14. Ryan Searle - Good sink, particularly considering the size, and he's still a raw arm.
15. DJ LeMahieu - Basically, he's another Ryan Flaherty. Except he has to develop the power.
16. Casey Coleman - Love the gamer in him. Love the fact that he was pushed and succeeded. Stuff isn't that good yet, but he knows to pitch to what he is good at (indicated in interviews that he doesn't try blowing people away). If he can develop that cutter/slider that's been discussed, it could be a big help to his long range potential.
17. Chris Archer - Love the season he's had in Peoria. That said ... he's always had the good fastball to go with the plus breaking ball, dating back to HS. There's still some talk of mechanical things that need to be worked out. Can he maintain solid performance at higher levels?
18. Logan Watkins - Former prep QB has shown an advanced approach at the start of his career. I expect Watkins and Lee to be worked up the ladder together for the most part.
19. Chris Huseby - I still hope he gets tried as a starter, where he might profile better, but with that slider and cutter, he's been solid this year, a nice bounce back after the control issues of last year.
20. John Gaub - He is very good for what he is ... a LOOGY. I just have a tough time ranking a LOOGY higher.
If I pondered it some more, I might make some changes, as that was a quickie list. I am very excited about the progress of the system. Last year, based on how folks judge systems, we were deservedly ranked low. I feel like we will be much higher this year, or at least, deserve to be. That said, from year to year, as long as the system's improving, and as long as the system fits the organization, I'll be pleased. 2010 is very much an in-b/w phase for the entire organization, at the big leagues and down lower. Could 2011 be "The Youth Movement"? It's very possible, as we have a lot of promise. I am most excited about the diversity of talent and the athleticism that's being added. There's some power, some high upside bats. There's some disciplined guys. There's speed. There's hard throwers, finesse arms. A good system should have balance. This isn't to suggest that the Cubs system is an elite system, but rather to say that I think that, whereas, last year, there was some light at the end of the tunnel for the system, this year, we are close to the next stop.
Anyhow love your work Bruce. Just surprised by Jay Jackson not being there.
I'd probably put Jay Jackson top 10 to top 15. I just came up with that off the top of my head based on what I've seen and read this year. I'd have no problem putting him top 10. It was kind of a quickie list. I appreciate the feedback. I love checking out the other blogs and the stat sites.
Bruce -
Any chance we can get a Top 10 Prospects list from you now that the minor league regular season is over?
You talked about Jackson being one of a handful of pitchers to reach AA from last year's draft but is he the first one to pitch at Iowa or did I read that incorrectly?
Thanks.
Jackson is the first to reach Triple-A this year. A top 10 would look something like this:
1. Starlin Castro, SS
2. Josh Vitters, 3B
3. Andrew Cashner, P
4. Chris Carpenter, P
5. Brett Jackson, CF
6. Hak-Ju Lee (SS at Boise)
7. Logan Watkins (Lee's DP partner at Boise)
8. Casey Coleman, P
9. Ryan Flaherty, 2B
10. Tyler Colvin, OF
That's a quickie list. Our friend-of-the-court mlp likes DJ LeMahieu (IF) and Ryan Searle, a pitcher out of Australia. Others to keep an eye on are closer Blake Parker at Iowa, catcher Steve Clevenger at Iowa, Jay Jackson, two of the DeRosa trade pitchers, John Gaub and Chris Archer, and outfielder Kyler Burke. Justin Berg and Jeff Stevens, both of whom are up now, could be serviceable in the majors, as could Caridad. Interestingly, the Cubs seem to rate Gaub and Archer higher than Stevens even though Stevens was closer to the majors than were Gaub and Archer.
I'd like to see Tim Wilken given a chance here. His picks are moving up rapidly through the system, and he's drafted guys who could change positions, such as Clevenger (infielder to catcher) and Josh Lansford, who has gone from infielder to pitcher.
That's a great list, thanks for taking the time to put it together. It looks like a solid group of players but they are still missing that elite hitter who will be the next face of the Cubs.
I worry greatly about Vitters but I look forward to seeing what this group does as they work their way through the system.
How far is Castro away from being major league ready and do you think that will impact what the Cubs do this offseason with the SS / 2B positions?
What current MLB player does Castro remind you of?
I would not be surprised to see him sometime late next year. I haven't seen him, so I don't have a reference point. I would think the Cubs would have Theriot hold the place at SS. As far as second goes, they may look for a free agent there and use Baker much like they did DeRosa in '07 and '08.
Why are the Cubs so intent on making Samardzija a starting pitcher? He has had no success, at any level, as a starter. The only flash of potential he's shown is last year out of the bullpen for the Cubs. Hendry's fascination with former Notre Dame pitchers should end now. They wasted millions in drafting Samardzija and Grant Johnson, and this year Cubs fans were thrilled everytime Hielman came in from the bullpen. Were these personal favors to an old coaching buddy, or just a coincidence?
The Cubs like the fact that he's coachable and willing to make some changes. Rothschild made some mechanical changes with him during his last stint. His numbers haven't been good at Iowa, but some of that has been him working on things.
There's no doubt Hendry and Paul Mainieri have enjoyed a good relationship, both when Mainieri was at Notre Dame and now that he's at LSU. His players are well coached, and both the Cubs and White Sox took players high out of LSU this year. Former scouting director John Stockstill took Johnson. One thing Hendry does is delegate. Stockstill had a number of bad drafts on his own. As far as Samardzija goes, Tim Wilken took him in the fifth round and had him rated higher. Drafting Samardzija was Wilken's call, but Hendry signed him to the long major-league deal.
Word comes from Peoria that Brett Jackson, this year's No. 1 draft pick out of Cal, will miss the first round of the playoffs against Cedar Rapids because of an injured right hand. Jackson was on the DL recently because of a hand injury after colliding with No. 2 pick DJ LeMahieu. It's possible Jackson can play in the second round if Peoria advances.