Cubs nuggets: position players
I feel like I should be posting the lineup today. Season-long habits are hard to break, and there's always that empty feeling on the first day of the off-season, even though you're glad in a way the grind is over. Long about Christmastime, I'll get the itch for spring training.
While you're at it, check out my latest column, posted Monday night for Tuesday's paper:
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=326656
That said, let's take a look a Cubs position players for 2009 and see if we can't unearth a nugget or two. We’ll look at pitchers next time. Let's go around the diamond, starting behind the plate:
C Geovany Soto: After a Rookie of the Year season, in which Geo hit 23 homers, drove in 86 and put up a hitting line of .285/.364/.504, he backslid badly this year, with 11 homers, 47 RBI and a hitting line of .218/.321/.381. That's a huge drop. Maybe a new hitting coach will help.
Nuggets: Soto's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was only .251, suggesting some bad-luck hitting. His weighted on-base average (wOBA) was only .310.
C Koyie Hill: Teams always are looking for dependable backup catchers, and Hill established himself in this area. His hitting line of .237/.312/.324 isn't awe-inspiring, but the Cubs love the way he calls games and handles the staff.
Nuggets: Hill is 30, but his was his first full season in the majors. The Cubs were 42-27 in Hill's 69 starts. He threw out 20 of 50 basestealers, or 40 percent.
1B Derrek Lee: He's on my MVP ballot. His hitting line of .306/.393/.579 was a big jump from last year's .291/.361/.462. He hit 35 homers and drove in a career-best 111.
Nuggets: One projection system, CHONE, had Lee at .293/.376/.494 for this year with 23 homers and 77 RBI. PECOTA had him for .285./365/.463 with 18 homers and 86 RBI.
2B Mike Fontenot: With all the criticism of Milton Bradley, Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto, let's not forget the big slide suffered by Fontenot after the Cubs made him their second baseman. His hitting line of .236/.301/.377 in 135 games and 377 at-bats is a huge drop from the .305/.395/.514 he turned in last year in 119 games and 243 at-bats.
Nuggets: In May, Fontenot's line was .217/.277/.338. In June, it was .211/.296/.282. That's when Aramis Ramirez was out with his dislocated shoulder.
3B Aramis Ramirez: Maybe once and for all, people will realize what a potent offensive force Ramirez is. His season was cut to 82 games because of the shoulder. He turned in a hitting line of .317/.389/.516 with 15 homers and 65 RBI.
Nuggets: You may or may not believe there are "clutch" hitters, but Ramirez batted .425 with runners in scoring position (37-for-87). He was 5-for-11 with the bases loaded.
SS Ryan Theriot: This will be on interesting arbitration case if it goes that far. Theriot's line was .284/.343/.369. Last year, it was .307/.387/.359. Theriot hit a career-high 7 homers and drove in a career-best 54. Were all those homers earlier in the year and Lou's suggestion that Theriot "drive the ball" such a hot idea? Theriot also struck out 93 times while walking 51. Last year, he struck out 58 times and drew 73 walks.
Nuggets: Theriot had a .525 slugging percentage and an .864 OPS in May, when he hit 5 of his 7 homers. The other 2 homers came in June.
IF Jeff Baker: The Cubs may have found their “new Mark DeRosa” in Baker, whom they obtained from the Rockies on July 2. With the Cubs, Baker batted .305 (62-for-203) with 4 homers, 15 doubles and 21 RBI in 69 games. He can play first, second and third, and the Cubs may try him in the outfield next spring. His hitting line overall was .288/.343/.425, and with the Cubs, it was .305/.362/448.
Nuggets: Baker’s BABIP was .361, with a line-drive percentage 19.4, a groundball percentage of 45.1 and a flyball percentage of 35.4
IF Aaron Miles: Somebody has to be the worst player in baseball, or at least the worst veteran, and that dubious distinction may go to Miles, whose hitting line is .185/.224/.242. And to think he completed only the first year of a two-year, $4.9 million contract.
Nuggets: In Baseball Prospectus’ VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) system, Miles ranked 1,018th, at minus-13.4. At least he ranked ahead of Ronny Cedeno.
IF Andres Blanco: A nonroster invitee to spring training two years in a row, Blanco played 53 games after coming up from the minors and put up a line of .252/.303/.341. His glove endeared him to Lou, who said he hopes Blanco can up his OBP. He could stick as a backup next year.
Nuggets: Blanco hit his first major-league home run on July 29.
LF Alfonso Soriano: There’s no doubt the knee limited Soriano, who turned in a hitting line of .241/.303/.423, with his OBP slipping below .300 at various points. He had 20 homers and 55 RBI. Last year, the line was .280/.344/.532. The Cubs are counting on a huge bounce-back next year.
Nuggets: In April, Soriano’s line was .284/.364/.,591 with 7 homers and 14 RBI. In July, it was .345/.409/.583 with 5 homers and 16 RBI. When right, he can carry a club for stretches.
OF Kosuke Fukudome: He went .259/.375/.421 after going .257/.359/.379 in his “rookie” season last year, when he fell off the face of the earth after July. He led the Cubs with 93 walks and 38 doubles. The off-season will determine whether Fukudome returns to right field, his better position, for good.
Nuggets: Fukudome was 9-for-55 (.164) vs. left-handed pitching. His “down” months this year were June (.169) and September (.202).
RF Milton Bradley: Some “stats” people have defended Bradley’s line of .257/.378/.397, but it was a far cry from last year’s 321/.436/.563 with Texas, for an AL-leading .999 OPS. In RBI, and value them how you will, Bradley had 40, trailing teammates such as Fontenot and Jake Fox. For all the reasons you’ve read about, this was a gross miscalculation on the part of the Cubs in signing Bradley for three years and $30 million.
Nuggets: At “negative” Wrigley Field, Bradley had a line of .296/.407/.485 compared with .214/.347/.299 away from home. He batted .231 left-handed and .333 right-handed.
OF Reed Johnson: A broken foot limited Johnson to 65 games, during which he put up a line of .255/.330/.412. Last year, it was .303/.358/.420 in 109 games. He made $3 million this year and will be a free agent coming up. His re-signing is a big uncertainty.
Nuggets: Johnson batted .324 (22-for-68) vs. left-handed pitching and .206 (20-for-97) vs. righties. At Wrigley, he batted .282.
IF-OF Bobby Scales: This was the feel-good story of the career minor-leaguer making it to the bigs. Scales’ line was .242/.312/.411. He’ll have to fight for a roster spot again next year.
Nuggets: Scales was 7-for-14 as a pinch hitter with 2 homers and 5 RBI. His 2 homers led all Cubs pinch hitters.
IF-OF Jake Fox: Just call him the people’s choice, as I got more e-mails about why he wasn’t playing more than I did for anybody else. A couple of us writers ran into Jake Monday in the parking lot at Wrigley. He’s hoping for more playing time, whether it be with the Cubs or with somebody else, maybe in the AL. There was no interest in Jake from other teams last year, but that has changed this year, according to those who know. His line was .259/.311/.468.
Nuggets: Fox’ isolated power (ISO, or slugging percentage minus batting average) was .208. Of his 58 hits, 11 were homers and 14 were doubles.
1B-OF Micah Hoffpauir: Hoffpauir broke camp with the Cubs but did spend some time in Iowa. His line was .239/.300/.427. He’ll be 30 next March.
Nuggets: All that “bench D-Lee and play Hoffpauir” talk was fueled by a strong April, when Hoffpauir went 10-for-33 with 2 homers, 8 RBI and an OPS of .878. He wound up with 10 homers for the year.
OF Sam Fuld: The fan favorite hit his first big-league homer and drove in his first major-league run in Sunday’s season finale. In 65 games, his line was .299/.409/.412. He could stick as an extra outfielder next year.
Nuggets: The left-handed hitting Fuld was 8-for-26 (.308) vs. lefties and 21-for-71 (.296) vs. righties. His OBP was .409, and his wOBA was .367. His BABIP was .326.
I was one of the "stats guys" that defended him a lot during the season. But another bad month at the end of the year and whatever he did to get himself suspended made his year pretty much indefensible. The best thing I can say about him is that he wasn't the Cubs biggest problem/disappointment... and that's not exactly a ringing endorsement.
But what I and others think of him is moot at this point, as he's clearly not in the Cubs' plans for 2009. I hope you're right that they can move him fairly easily, and that they can find a good bat to replace him in RF, or better yet, CF.
Bruce,
How about blogging on some of the Cubs minor league players and what those prospects look like? There were some infielders at Boise with some outstanding stats; the Peoria team was solid all year, with some players who were promoted during the year - they reminded me of the A team that Grace and company were on a generation ago; there were some players worth note at Daytona, including the shortstop Castro who moved up to AA; and then Tennessee seemed to have a few nuggets.
Who can we look forward to seeing in a year or two?
This issue then also gets back to how well do the Cubs "scout" there own system. Can they keep some of the good young players who have a good chance to be in the Bigs for five or ten years, or do they trade them away in trades that are more short term?
I'd recommend this site for a minor league blog:
http://wrigleybound.com/
They have constant posts that are thoughtful and well-written... and it's all about Cubs prospects!
injuries are part of the game and the Cubs should have had a plan B, they didn't.
to blame 2006, 2007, and 2008 for average years from Lee due to his wrist injury is making excuses for the guy. Lee himself said maybe in 2006 but in 2007 and 2008 his wrist was ok. he had a great 2009 just like he did in 2005. let's also remember he didn't start his career in 2005.
some have said that Soriano's knee caused some of his defense and hitting problems. he has always been a bad defensive player. all the balls he dropped were not cause of his knee. his swinging at down and away pitches are something he's always done and missed. i hope he comes back and hits 500 homers in 2010. cause if he comes back and has another average to down year his fans will use the "knee" not being 100% excuse.
some people wanted Scales over Fontenot cause Fonzie wasn't making it and we had no one else. not cause Scales was the Savior. and as i recall Soto was rookie of the year in 2008. in fact a good manager looks for a rookie to crack the line up every spring, a good rookie not just a rookie.
you bring in good new/young talent if you can and trade the old a year before it's to late, before they lose value. this is just my opinion.
Outisde of trading Bradley, I'd like to see the Cubs trade Fox and/or Marshall to the Orioles for Luke Scott. Scott would be a solid #5 hitter who could play right and hit 5th.
The Orioles are loaded with outfielders-Reimhold (sp?) Jones, Markakis and Pie. They could use help at first base-Fox and could definetely use experienced pitching.
Naturally Brian Roberts is still an ideal choice for the Cubs as a second base leadoff man but given the past I almost don't want to go there. If the teams were to expand the deal, I'd say the Cubs would have to include Blanco and (gulp) Casey Coleman.
If they could pull it off, the Cubs would have a speedy leadoff man and a lefthanded hitting rightfielder.
On another note, I realize that the Cubs want Fukudome to move back to right but lets face it, he doesn't possess the power that you would like from a corner outfielder. Since Fuld hits lefthanded-and I really like Fuld, the better choice would be to re-sign Johnson and platoon him in center with Fukudome. Fukudome may respond better in a pure platoon anyway since he seems to run out of gas by seasons' end.
Those are my thoughts for what its worth.
Teams need to be strong up the middle, and that's where the Cubs are at their worst.
*I don't know what happened to Soto this year, but if he can get back into shape maybe we can see the 2008 version.
*Our cute little LSU double-play combination wasn't so great in 2009. Fontenot forgot what made him a .300 hitter (the little Babe Ruth??) and proved he is not an option as a utility player when he failed miserably at third base after Aramis got injured. Theriot can hit (when he's not trying to hit homers), but has less range than a batting-practice screen. Any ball hit to his right is a base hit, and this became more evident when Andres Blanco came up from Iowa and routinely made plays that Ryan couldn't touch. Our pitching staff deserves better.
*Centerfield is another place where a mediocre Triple-A player (Sam Fuld) came up from the minors and showed much better range and arm than the Cubs "star". Kosuke plays too deep, letting balls fall in front of him while still letting balls go over his head. He will be a problem as long as he's here -- not enough pop for right field and not enough range for center.
More things for Hendry & Co. to think about this winter.
Get rid of Zambrano, no way, writers and some fans would be sorry. Yes he's emotional,
but so was Ted Williams and Steve Carlton to name a few who succeded in the past.
First of all Zambrano would probably not waive his no trade clause to pitch in the American League where he couldn't hit. Watching him in the dugout, he smiles a lot,
and seems to like his team mates. One of the first in line to congratulate a team mate.
I say intense not emotional, he cares, so whats wrong with that. Watch how he'll mature
in 2010.
If possible, perhaps the Cubs could look into obtaing Roy Halladay & Vernon Wells who
has worn out love in Toronto. Wells would be the centerfielder, decent bat, and steals
a few bases. Perhaps the Blue Jays would accept Bradley, I would include Dempster
(a Canadian), even Vitner and Heilman.
Cubs need more speed, stronger shortstop that can cover more ground, stronger arm, put Theroit on secound base. Who's available ?
It seems the disposition of Bradley is the first step in rearranging the 2010 roster. If he is to be dealt, we may be well served to package him with some other players who have some skills, are low priced, and are not essential to the team.
That appears to include Fox, Marshall, Heilman and Fontenot. If Hendry is willing to add Berg and/or Caridad to the pot, we might be able to get rig of Bradley without paying much towards his future salary.
Thanks Bruce for the post.
I'll eat some crow for my ripping of Lee earlier this year. Thankfully, he became the Lee of 2005 and provided some power. Hopefully, the wrist injury that derailed for the past 2-1/2 years, is finally 100% healed and we should expect 30+ homers, and 100 rbis. Not to mention the off field problems with his daughter.
I'll also again defend the A-ram. The man is money. It's that simple. He is their best player....period. He hits in the clutch, plays a very underrated 3rd base, and is by far the biggest key to their success. I hope the Cubs make a decision quickly and get that shoulder fixed so he's 100%. Don't wait and see if rehab will do it. Without him, the whole lineup suffers.
As I posted on the previous blog, I am not sold on Fontenot. He was given the job and Miles was supposed to bounce around the infield and spell Ramirez, Theriot, and Fontenot when needed. He imploded and stunk that Hendry had to go out and get Baker. I don't ever remember the word "platoon" being mentioned regarding him....Maybe I am wrong, but I don't remember it.
Lastly, I really hope the Cubs go after veterans for the bench duties. Keeping Fox, and maybe Fuld (for defense only) is fine, but you can't rely on rookies or career minor leaguers to fill in. It doesn't work. I also hope that people relax after a minor leaguer comes up and tears it up for a few days. When all is said and done, what did Bobby Scailes do? People were calling for him to start back in May, and it was maddening.
This is Hendry's biggest offseason. He needs to step up and fix the mistakes that he made. Either by finding people to step in for guys he overvalued (Fontenot), or fixing the signings that have blown up his face (Bradley, Miles).
To me, he better be on a short leash with new ownership. He has created this mess, and he better fix it or be fired. The Cubs can't afford another step back next year. The days of free spending, and not being held accountable are over.
I couldn't disagree more with this comment:
Lastly, I really hope the Cubs go after veterans for the bench duties. Keeping Fox, and maybe Fuld (for defense only) is fine, but you can't rely on rookies or career minor leaguers to fill in. It doesn't work.
this is how Aaron Miles, Joey Gathright, Reed Johnson etc, add up to nearly $10 million in salaries when there are options in the minors that would be just fine. We're talking about BENCH spots. Take that $10 million wasted on these guys and get an actual *starting caliber player*
This way you save money in the bench area while you increase your spending potential on a player that is supposed to play every day. there is ZERO reason for ANY team to sign a guy like Aaron Miles or other similar "proven veterans" to multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts to sit the bench.
I'm not saying you spend 10 million on multi year deals for other team's rejects, but to rely on Bobby Scailes, Micah Hoffpauir, Koyie Hill, etc to fill in when injuries happen is crazy.
A strong bench is a huge bonus for a team, and especially a manager who loves double switching like Lou. You can't ignore that, or the fact that Soriano is longer then a 9 inning player. I dont' want him anywhere near the field with the Cubs in the lead late in games.
What it comes down to is, this team has a lot question marks and I'm curious to hear how this gets handled.
-2b: who starts?
-SS: do the cubs pursue a Ss and move Theriot to 2nd?
-CF: who plays CF?
-RF: Can you live with Kosuke now that he will hit below .260 each year, with little pop?
-C: Who backs up Soto if he doesn't find it?
-Bullpen: who sets up Marmol?
-Rotation: Who takes over for Harden? IS Wells for real?
Bench: Who else do the Cubs add?
Those are all legitimate concerns. Not to mention who backs up Lee, Soriano, and Ramirez? They need a PROVEN player because we saw this year what happens when you try to plug a hack like Fontenot and play him everyday...it blows up in your face.
Having a guy like Fuld as the 4th outfielder is fine. He plays a fantastic outfield, and technically there should be enough pop in the rest of the lineup to cover for him. But depending on young guys like Hoffpair, Fox, Scales, etc as your entire bench is trouble. Reason being, and it may be cliche, is that pinch hitting is hard to do. If one of these guys proves they can do it regularly (scales was impressive actually, then again did any of those at bats really mean anything) then by all means go with them. Expecting a young guy who is used to playing everyday their whole life to walk out of the dugout cold turkey in a big spot on a cold october night in the middle of a pennant race is asking a lot.
these guys get so few at bats that you can't just go by what they do in one season. Daryle Ward was a veteran who was one of the best pinch hitters in the league, and then fell off the face of the Earth the next season. As Bruce mentions above, Scales was the best PH on the team this year, but that doesn't say ANYTHING about how he'll be next year; not enough data.
How come everyone wants to give Jake Fox and Micah Hoffpauir a starting job one day and won't even consider them as a bench/pinch hitter now?
I think it's only fair to point that Fontenot was supposed to be part of a platoon with Miles. When Ramirez got hurt (with Miles being bad also a factor) he then had to face lefties which seemed to hurt his production. He didn't recover from this. It seemed to hurt him on both sides of the plate. I don't want to be so quick to give up on him as most others seem to be.
I had Fontenot pegged for a much better year (obviously) however, don't forget the fact that he was the main replacement for Ramirez at 3rd for a few months when he was out. Position changes in the infield can really bother a player offensively. Im not making excuses, but the one positive was that Fontenot didn't make excuses and he did his best at 3rd. Never let the hitting issues carry over onto the field.
Then again, hard to pinpoint why anyone struggled at the plate this year, it was a team wide issue. I don't doubt that Fontenot's numbers would have been much improved had Soriano, Bradley, and Soto produced this year. Its easy to lay blame on young or role players for team woes when high priced, main components of the lineup are struggling.
"but the one positive was that Fontenot didn't make excuses and he did his best at 3rd."
how is not making excuses a positive? I honestly don't see any positives out of Fontenot's year; unless you want to count him not getting the everyday job in 2010 a positive.
because we traded away our backup 3rd baseman and all around fill in guy. Had derrick Lee been moved over to 3rd to fill in for Ramirez and he struggled at the plate, the media would have made excuses for him. Also, the guy signed to be that fill in sucked 3x's worse than he did (miles).
Why is it guaranteed that Fontenot loses the everyday job in 2010 a positive, when Soriano and Soto get to keep their spots, oh yeah, money. Just trying to keep it fair. Everyone that will be here gets a shot again next year to redeem themselves. Im not saying he's the answer, but Baker basically did what Fontenot did last year. At least "little babe ruth" played his position well. If the rest of the lineup hit how it was supposed to, nobody would care how he performed at the plate.
Bruce-
any line on when things will be tied up on the sale front? I think I read Winter meetings in early December as far as owner votes, but will Rickets have total control by then? Will the new owners have much say in trades or arbitration/extension decisions? Will they be doing formal evaluations of staff, rosters and minor leagues? Do you see any changes in scouting or the possibility some of the front office or coaches are offered jobs with other teams?
Speaking of changes; I like Hendry fine and think he is getting a raw deal for a bad year, but with Towers out there (great evaluator and baseball lifer) could it be possible they want to bring him in? I also read somewhere (probably here) the Cubs could use a real baseball mind to come in as president or to work with Hendry, would either guy go for a situation where Hendry is GM and Towers (or someone else) is the player personel man? I don't see it but stranger things have happened?
Something could get done in October as far as the ownership change goes. I'm hearing late in the month. The current front office most likely will stay in place as is. To make drastic changes now could cause a lot of chaos. I suspect the new owners will defer to their baseball people as far as arbitration and so forth.
The coaches all will be back with the Cubs, with the exception of Von Joshua.
I'm don't think Towers would be brought in over Hendry. He's more of a GM type. I've suggested "baseball men" such as Pat Gillick, John Schuerholz or the like to come in and oversee Hendry and provide him with some guidance. As of now, only Crane Kenney is above Hendry, and he's hardly a baseball guy.
Hey Bruce,
Always great talking baseball with you despite the disappointing year. I think Lou's desire for an RBI guy should depend on what Hendry gets in return for Bradley. If it's a bad contract for bad contract deal, it's conceivable the guy who comes back could be an OF with RBI potential (Magglio, Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand as examples). And I agree with Hendry - we should expect better numbers from Soriano and Soto. A Rowand acquisition would allow Kosuke to go back to RF, which is something Lou wants too.
I think you accurately pointed out what Hendry should really focus: lead-off hitter. I have blogged with you before about 2B Luis Castillo of the Mets. He's got 2 years and $12 million left. Despite the Mets general woes, I thought Luis played well this year. I think his OBP was in the 380s and despite his age I believe stole 20-25 bases this year. If I recall the splits, however, he's much better as left-handed hitter (over .400 OBP) and brutal as a right-handed hitter (.320 OBP), so he'd be perfect in a platoon with Jeff Baker. Another guy, who you might want to research is Milwaukee free agent 2B Felipe Lopez. He doesn't steal bases, but I believe his OBP was near .400 and it was nearly identical from both sides of the plate. Plus, you wouldn't have to trade anything in return to get him. That could be good or bad depending on what Hendry wants to do with Aaron Miles and some of the arb. elig. guys.
Speaking of which, is Koyie Hill in that category? I thought I read he had 3 years service time upon completing the 2009 season.
I'm going to pitch an idea to you, especially if the Cubs get a good leadoff hitter to play 2B. Considering Ryan Theriot is arb. elig, and could get near $2M, what would you say if I said the Cubs are better off trading Ryan Theriot, saving his $2M and letting Andres Blanco play SS everyday and bat 8th? With Gorzelanny potentially in the swing role as occasional starter/long reliever, is it time to deal Sean Marshall as well? Might be interesting to see what you can get for Theriot and Marshall packaged? Maybe KC gives us a Mark Teahan. Now that would shake things up.
Take care,
Hoops
Appreciate the input, Hoops. Yes, Koyie Hill will be arbitration eligible, but that doesn't figure to get anywhere near a hearing. He and the Cubs will agree to a deal quickly.
They seem happy with Theriot as their shortstop, although with Castro coming quickly in the minor leagues, 2010 could be Ryan's last year there.