A capsule look at Cubs pitchers
Last time out, we went up and down the Cubs' roster of position players and looked at each guy, trying to unearth a nugget here and there. The most interesting I found was the Kosuke Fukudome had just 9 hits against left-handed pitching.
Speaking of pitching, let's do the same thing for the Cubs' main pitchers this year.
LHP Ted Lilly: Teddy Ballgame supplanted Carlos Zambrano as the ace of the starting staff by going 12-9 with a 3.10 ERA. Lilly ranked fifth in the NL in WHIP (walks plus hits per 1 inning pitched), at 1.05. The leader was Arizona's Dan Haren, at 1.00. Lilly missed time with knee and shoulder problems or else he might have won at least 15 for a fourth straight year.
Nuggets: Lilly walked just 36 while striking out 151. The 4.19 K/BB rate was the best of his career, and it ranked him fourth in the NL. Lilly had a flyball rate of 50.6, and when the wind blows in at Wrigley, those balls stay in the yard. Speaking of Wrigley, Ted was 8-2 with a 1.87 ERA on the North Side.
RHP Carlos Zambrano: After seasons of 13, 16, 14, 16, 18 and 14 wins, Big Z dropped to 9-7 with a 3.77 ERA this year. And no, the Cubs are not trading him this winter. Big Z had 17 quality starts. His WHIP rose from 1.29 last year to 1.38 this season. He'll spend much of his time this winter in Chicago, and you'd think the trainers would be able to keep a close eye on his conditioning. I look for a bounce-back season next year from Z.
Nuggets: Zambrano was 2-5 with a 5.03 ERA at home and 7-2 with a 2.73 ERA on the road. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play; league average is around .300) rose from .277 last year to .308 this year. With time on the DL, he threw his fewest pitches in a season since 2002.
RHP Ryan Dempster: Last year's ace dropped from 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA to 11-9 with a 3.65 ERA. He went hard down the stretch to reach 200 innings, becoming the only Cubs pitcher to do so.
Nuggets: Dempster's WHIP rose from 1.21 last year to 1.31 this year. His BABIP was very low for much of last year before topping out at .280. It went up to .307 this season. Dempster enjoys 10-5 rights, which means the Cubs need his permission to trade him.
RHP Randy Wells: A couple of bad starts late probably doomed Wells' Rookie of the Year chances, but he was the most pleasant surprise on the team this year. He led the starters in ERA, at 3.05, and his 1.28 WHIP was second to Lilly on the Cubs among starters.
Nuggets: Wells had a groundball rate of 47.9. He struck out a career best 10 in his final start of the season. His longest losing streak of the season was 2, and he was adept at making the necessary adjustments.
RHP Rich Harden: The Cubs still are uncertain whether they'll offer free agent Harden salary arbitration this winter. I'd say it's 30-70 they do so. Harden was 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA. He made 26 starts, which says a lot for the work pitching coach Larry Rothschild and the trainers did to keep Harden's historically bad shoulder healthy. But the Cubs might have thought about giving him an extra day of rest more than they did.
Nuggets: Harden struck out 10.91 per 9 innings, second on the team to Carlos Marmol. He was shut down after his Sept. 16 start, when he went 3 innings. Before that start, he went 4, 5 and 5 innings respectively.
LHP Sean Marshall: Anybody remember that he started the season in the rotation and made 2 quality starts? He figures to be a swing guy again next year, depending on what the Cubs do this winter. He's also one of the few realistic major-league trading chips the Cubs have. He'd likely be part of a bigger package. Overall, he was 3-7 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, up from 1.27 last year.
Nuggets: Marshall's line-drive percentage rose from 16.6 to 23.3 while his flyball rate dropped from 42.2 percent to 27.9 percent. Perhaps more line drives caused a rise in his BABIP, from .288 to .319.
RHP Aaron Heilman: When the dust from a couple of trades settled, the Cubs were without reliever Michael Wuertz and with Heilman. Laboring in obscurity in Oakland, Wuertz was 6-1 with a 2.63 ERA, an 0.95 WHIP, 102 strikeouts and 23 walks. Heilman was 4-4 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He’s arbitration eligible. Will the Cubs tender him a contract?
Nuggets: Heilman was a better second-half pitcher, with a 3.82 ERA compared with 4.32 in the first half. He has pitched in at least 70 games four straight years.
LHP John Grabow: He looks to be GM Jim Hendry’s top priority as far as re-signing Cubs free agents goes. Would the Cubs go out any more than two years? The Cubs got him from the Pirates in a July 30 trade, and he helped the Cubs down the stretch. Overall, he was 3-0 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.
Nuggets: Left-handers hit .222 vs. Grabow while righties batted .238. He had a 6.94 ERA in September. At Wrigley, his ERA was 3.27.
RHP Esmailin Caridad: The Cubs like his live arm and his versatility. He’ll be in the mix for the bullpen next year after going 1-0 with a 1.40 ERA with 3 walks and 17 strikeouts in 19.1 innings.
Nuggets: Caridad, whom the Cubs signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2007, pitched in Japan that year, getting into 2 games for Hiroshima.
RHP Jeff Samardzija: The Cubs hope Samardzija turned a corner in September after a fix-up stint in Iowa, during which the Cubs worked to smooth out his mechanics. The Cubs see Samardzija competing for a starting job in spring training. He finished 1-3 with a 7.53 ERA and a feverish WHIP of 1.76.
Nuggets: After giving up no homers in 27.2 innings last year, Samardzija gave up 7 in 34.2 this year.
LHP Tom Gorzelanny: GM Jim Hendry was glad to take Gorzelanny from the Pirates in the Grabow trade after Gorzelanny spent time in the minors. Overall, he was 7-3 with a 5.55 ERA. With the Cubs, he was 4-2 with a 5.63 ERA. He’ll be in the rotation mix next spring.
Nuggets: He made just $433,000 this year. He had a 7.63 ERA at Wrigley.
RHP Angel Guzman: The Cubs admitted to being extra cautious with Guzman down the stretch, when they shut him down early with triceps soreness. In his first full big-league season, Guzman was 3-3 with a 2.95 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05.
Nuggets: Guzman held opposing hitters to a .192 average, and his BABIP was .207, with a 47.9 groundball rate.
RHP Kevin Gregg: This one didn’t work out so hot, and Gregg will be allowed to walk as a free agent. What seemed to bother manager Lou Piniella more than anything were the 13 home runs, not to mention the 7 blown saves out of 30.
Nuggets: Gregg’s HR/9 innings rose from 0.39 to 1.70 this year. His flyball rate went from 35.4 to 44.3 while his groundball rate went from 44.8 to 38.0.
RHP Carlos Marmol: When Marmol gets the ball over the plate, he’s hard to hit, as evidenced by the 43 hits allowed in 74 innings. However, getting the ball over the plate has been the problem, as he’s over thrown that slider at time. He walked 65 and hit 12, watching his WHIP go from 0.93 last year to 1.46 this year. He heads to spring training knowing he’s the closer, so that may be a good thing for him.
Nuggets: Marmol’s BB/9 innings expanded from 4.23 last year to 7.91 this season. He gave up only 2 homers this year, compared with 10 a year ago.
Others: Justin Berg (54.1 groundball percentage) will get a good look in spring training. Of the 131 pitches he threw this year, 95 were for strikes…David Patton took up a roster spot much of the year as a Rule 5 pick. The Cubs can send him to the minors next year…Jeff Stevens is the first of three pitchers the Cubs got from the Indians for Mark DeRosa. Stevens walked eight and struck out nine in 12.2 innings.
like Jason Marquis
good debate.
Which Harden will we likely see next year? No question that he is the most dominant pitcher we have when he is on the mound. The trouble is his pitch count which last year was a career high of 17.7/IP. That turns him into a 6 inning pitcher. Can we afford him on a 1 year arbitration contract at maybe $12-$13M? There is ample evidence he is much improved on 5 days rest but are we asking the rest of the staff to adjust to his best fit needs?
What I do wonder about is the failure to come up with a 3rd pitch. I'd guess he's gone unless the team is able to bail enough salary to justify keeping him.
A look at Zambrano's numbers would seem to indicate he is also turning into a 6 inning pitcher. The last 3 years have shown a substantial spike in his 7th inning results. His recent 7th inning tOPS+ have been 133, 118 and 183 last year. Also it was interesting to note in his career, he must throw 1st pitch strikes. After a 1-0 count, hitters have a .421 OBP. If he begins 0-1, it drops to .276. By comparison Lilly's numbers were .348 and .206. Again, which Zambrano will show up in 2010?
Third pitch? I don't think he's worried about a third pitch cuz he's already injury prone and his two pitches are enough to baffle hitters.
And I'd say he'll be looking at more in the $10M range, not $13 which is nearly double his 09 salary.
Supposedly Harden is a type B free agent and NOT a type A, which would completely change things. Now teams don't have to worry about losing a draft pick. There will be a lot more interest in him. They should offer him arbitration.
Which makes one wonder, how fickle are the FA rankings? Could the Cubs have known that Harden was such a borderline Type A/Type B that they didn't want him to pitch the last few weeks to keep him in the Type B range?
As you all know the pieces tend to be inter-connected.
My feeling is that until Hendry figures out what he needs to take back in return to get Bradley off his hands, he can't make the call on whether to offer Harden arbitration or not.
For example, if Hendry had to take a starting pitcher in return, you figure he'd have to pass on Harden at that point unless a third team was involved to flip that pitcher.
That's my read. Dispose of Bradley first (quickly if you can!), and then the rest will follow.
In a vacuum, I'm torn on Harden. We gave up a lot to get him. And he showed flashes of brilliance. On the other hand, he is a 5-inning pitcher so he does tax the bullpen frequently. I wouldn't want a 6 man rotation, because that would take away 5-6 starts apiece from Lilly, Z, and Dempster. And Lou's not going away from having 7 relievers, so there's no open slot to hide him to give him those extra days off. It's a conundrum.
Hoops
That would be December 1.
I think its a terrible mistake to not offer Harden arbitration as I've expressed before. Even at $9M or $10M he's still a tradeable commodity. And even if he isn't, he's a good starting pitcher!
But I think Hendry is afraid of him accepting and would rather spend that money on Chone Figgins, so no, they will not even offer arbitration.
As for Marshall....he had a two year run with limited starts where he had a sub 4.00 ERA. But Lou liked him in the pen. Value - ruined.
As MLP stated, selling low, buying high.....seems to be the MO of this organization. Anyone who puts up a career year in their 30's should be licking their chops when their agent talks to Hendry.
It would be a mistake to sign Figgins. You don't sign old guys coming off career years. He will be the hottest free agent on the market and almost certainly, the biggest bust.
I think the Cubs should make a trade to fill whatever needs they think they have. I would make a run again at Brian Roberts. I would offer basically whatever it takes to get him. If they want starting pitching, offer it. If they want Vitters, give him up. Roberts fills the biggest needs of this team, a legitimate leadoff man and a top notch second baseman and a switch hitter. You can pick an outfielder up somewhere to complete the team.
I would also offer Harden arbitration, but I would hope he signs somewhere else. The Cubs need someone who can pitch 200 effective innings. Joel Pineiro anyone? Excellent groundball rate. Weaken the Cards, strengthen the Cubs. Sounds like a plan.
Good thinking, something Hendry needs to practice. I want Harden back, only at our price. We don't need another high priced question mark.And we don't need to spend mega dollars on hoped for results.
Hard to argue against acquiring either of those guys, but you do realize that Roberts is actually a few months older than Figgins and that both are switch hitting speedsters? And this hasn't been a career year for Figgins. Two years ago, he hit .330 with a .393 OBP and .825 OPS to go with 41 SB's in 53 attempts. He also made over $2M less than Roberts this year and Roberts' salary will increase by $2M next year. I don't think that Figgins will get the $10M/yr that Roberts is getting, but he may not be far off. Roberts is the better defensive bet at 2B but Figgins could back up Ramirez and play the OF too. And of course, signing Figgins could mean giving up a 2nd round draft pick while trading for Roberts would mean letting go of three or four very good players.
I don't see the Cubs having to trade 3 or 4 very good young players for Roberts. They could trade 1 good young player/pitcher and some additional pieces.
Roberts is unquestionably a better year in, year out player than Figgins. I don't care about his versatility. We need a second baseman. We have Baker to fill in behind Ramirez, or numerous other guys.
With the teams who are said to be in on Figgins, I would guess he will make at least as much as Roberts, and will probably require a contract which is longer than the Cubs should give(2 years with an option).
You'd only want to give two years with an option to Figgins but wouldn't have a problem with dealing for Roberts, who is signed for another 4 years at $10M/yr and is a little older than Figgins? Given the state of the economy and the fact that many free agents took pay cuts to find work this year (Abreu is a great example), why do you feel Figgins will get more than $10M/yr if Roberts is unquestionably a better player? Figgins had better seasons this year and in 2007 and Roberts had a better year in 2008. They are very similar players except for which positions they are able to play. BTW, the Orioles asking price for Roberts when the Cubs made a push to acquire him was said to have been higher than Hendry was willing to pay. Seeing as how Baltimore signed him to an extension and he's a favorite of the owner and fans, why would they give him up for a lesser return now after he's had another very good year? I guess we also differ on the importance of versatility. What if Ramirez gets hurt for an extended period of time again next year? Figgins' best position is 3B, and if an outfielder gets hurt he can play there too.
I think Figgins is going to get more than $10M to be honest....
According to this blurb, Hawpe may be available. Hopefully Hendry is going to quickly look into that. I mean, Hendry should be on his cell phone faster than he can say "Bradley's replacement". Rightfielder....lefty that crushes RHP....only 30 years old....will make $7.5M in 2010 and the Rockies have a $10M club option for 2011 (or $500K buyout) which Hawpe may void if traded. Hawpe would be absolutely perfect batting 4th or 5th and give the lineup what it was missing with Bradley, someone who gets on base but also mashes RHP. And he's pretty consistent. His BA over the past four seasons has ranged from .283 to .293, his OBP from .381 to .387, and his OPS from .879 to .926. He's not very good against LHP (BA in the .240's and OPS in the upper .700's) but has hit better than .300 with an OBP over .400 and OPS in the mid .900's over the past four seasons versus RHP. And his home/away splits don't indicate that he's taken advantage of Coors Field either. This year he hit .275 with a .372 OBP and .890 OPS on the road, and over the previous three years he hit .288 with a .384 OBP and .889 OPS on the road. So deal Bradley and swing a trade for Hawpe, and then look a leadoff hitter options for 2B.
Armstrong: Hawpe might be odd man out
Saturday Morning Posts: Quick hits from the sports world
By Jim Armstrong
The Denver Post
Posted: 10/10/2009 01:00:00 AM MDT
JIMMY SEZ: Call me the Fourth Stooge, but now that Brandon Marshall has survived a nasty case of Whine Flu, I'm givin' the Bronx a shot against the Boyz from the Hoodie. (Doug Pensinger, Getty Images)The Saturday morning notes. Over a billion served. . . .
Memo to Matt Holliday: incoming! . . .
Memo to Brad Hawpe: outgoing? . . .
Now, more than ever, you have to wonder about Hawpe's future in purple pinstripes. Or maybe you didn't notice that Jim Tracy used three left-handed pinch-hitters Thursday and Hawpe wasn't among them. Not sure how this one will play out, but Carlos Gonzalez will play every day next season and twice in day-night double-headers. . . .
Seth Smith, Ian Stewart and Jason Giambi got their swings in without Hawpe leaving the bench. For a minute there, I was bracing for a John Vander Wal or Daryl Boston appearance out of the Rockies' dugout. . . .
It's an interesting dilemma for Team O'Dowd because the Rockies, hypothetically/theoretically, are a better team with a productive Hawpe in right field. Which brings us to this quote, unsolicited, from ESPN commentator John Kruk before Game 2: "The thing about the Rockies is they need Brad Hawpe desperately. I understand the guy has struggled in the second half, but he has to hit. If he doesn't hit, I don't know if they can win this series. He's that guy in the middle of the lineup who can make a difference with one swing." . . .
The wild card on Harden are the meds. None of us has seen the medical reports, X-rays, MRIs or whatever. The Cubs and Oakland have seen them, and other teams that potentially sign him will make damn sure he's healthy. As Jersey Cubs Fan has pointed out and as I alluded to in the original blog post above, Harden is a guy who needs to work every sixth day more often than not. He's pretty effective then. Nobody was saying a whole of specifically about why he was shut down at the end of the year.
I would hope the Cubs would sign him. He's too big of talent just to let walk, plus the Cubs seemed to keep him relatively healthy all year long.
I don't think multi year is even worth considering, but if you can get him for 1 year....do it.
a rotation with Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster, and two of Wells, Gorz, Marshall and Samardzija is going to be very disappointing next season.
-Lilly will be in a contract year, so he'll put up HUGE numbers. He is the Cubs ace, and unless he's injured, he should be starting opening day 2010 now. Just announce it. If anything, it may make Carlos do more sit ups at the gym this winter because he's "hurt".
-Zambrano...the mental midget is already upset and throwing out retirement. Please. I hope he bounces back, but if he not.....you start putting feelers out there for what this goof is worth.
Bruce, does anyone even respect this guy in the clubhouse? Are the Cubs FINALLY fed up with his BS antics?
For 18 million a year, 16 wins should be a lock. That's only half the starts where he has to give the Cubs a chance to win. That should make up for the "quality" starts where he gets a ND. It really should. Not 9, or 12, or 14. I expect 16 wins, and at some point....he better put it all together and get some Cy Young votes because he's being paid like a CY Young pitcher thanks to Mr. fiscally responsible.
-Dempster...he is the key to next year. If he's Dempster of 2008, the Cubs should be in good shape. If not, they are in deep trouble. Then you have possibly 2 good pitchers, and 3 question marks.
-Wells..lets see how he reacts as a #4 starter. Hopefully, the Cubs finally have a young pitcher who can pitch well for them.
-#5 spot: If it's between Mr. Notre Dame, Gorzelanny, and Marshall....that's god awful. They need to find a veteran, who can eat up innings, and keep you in games. I don't see how any of these 3 have earned a shot at a rotation spot if you are serious about contending.
I mean Mr. Notre Dame has 2 pitches. How do the Cubs think he'll be successful going through an order 2 or 3 times facing MLB hitters? Put him back in the pen where he's had some success.
That's a LOT of question marks for this rotation. The only "given" IMO, is Lilly. After that....it's a crap shoot.
No, Steve, Mr. Notre Dame has 3 pitches. You forgot about the one that goes over the fence.
I would take Ted Lilly and 4 Randy Wells for my rotation, and I would beat the Cubs with Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster, and whoever.
Agreed, Mr. Rain, on Lilly. He's the ace of the staff and should start Opening Day. On Zambrano, the Cubs won 18 of the 28 games he started, or about two-thirds. His ERA this year was better this year than it was in each of the previous two years. Wins for a pitcher are dependent on things in addition to how the pitcher pitched. Let's remember the Dodgers are in the playoffs without a single pitcher winning 12 games.
Zambrano left no-decision games this year with the Cubs tied 2-2, tied 1-1, down 3-1, down 4-3, tied 1-1, tied 1-1, down 1-0, and up 3-2. He left a 2-1 loss to Atlanta on July 7 down 2-1. That's nine games right there in which he gave the Cubs a chance to win, except for maybe the one where the Cubs were down 4-3.
If we're going to dump a 28-year-old pitcher because of a "bad" year, that's asking to be sorry later on.
His teammates take what he does with a grain of salt.
As far as the rest of the stuff, we're agreed. I believe Samardzija needs to spend most of the year at Iowa working on refining his pitches as a starter and not be bounced between starting and relieving. Either way, make a decision one way or another.
This season was the best he's thrown the ball in 3 years....I don't get the hate all of a sudden.
I understand the numbers, and what not....but here's my beef with Zambrano.
For every start that he pitches well, you get a start where he implodes and it's mainly due to him. A guy hits a BS broken bat hit, the umpire squeezes him, his teammates make an error, etc.
that's my problem with this guy. No doubt he has a TON of talent, but you know what? How many times a year do you see Rothschild stroll out to the mound, grab Z by the gut, and start talking to him. Meanwhile Carlos is chumping on his gum, nodding, and acting like a spoiled 5 yr old.
That's Z being Z is all we have heard. Or his ball is moving too much. Or his emotions got the best of him. How many years are the Cubs going to keep on using the same pathetic excuses? Shut up, pitch, and get your fat butt into shape. Maybe even mature for once, but that may be asking too much.
That's my problem. I don't see ANY OTHER pitcher in baseball do that continously. I'm happy for the Dodgers and their ability to get into the playoffs with no guy winning more then 12 games, but I don't see a guy being paid 18 million a year on that staff.
Right or wrong, it's about wins. 9 wins is not going to cut it. He needs to be that guy where when he pitches, you almost mark down a W EVERYTIME. Look at Carpenter for ST. Louis, Lincecum for the Giants, Santanna for the Mets, etc. That's what "aces" do. Not to mention, the guy has NEVER won a playoff game, and in fact has imploded in the 2 biggest starts of his career (game 2 vs Fla in 2003, last year vs LA in game 2).
That's what Z needs to become. Until then, I will continue to rip this guy until he lives up to his hype. Wasn't it just 2 years ago, he told everyone he was going 27-6, going to win the Cy Young, and the Cubs would win the World Series?
He hasn't won 27 games in the past years combined.......
Exactly. The question I always ask people is, when is the last time Z won a big game, post or regular season?. You're being paid Ace money, pitch like one. And hire a personal trainer and chef, if need be. Lord knows he can afford it.
then let's all stop the complaining about Soto, Fontenot, Theriot, and anyone else making less than $1M.
I mean, they are getting paid less than Aaron Miles, we should expect them to have crappy years like they just had.
i know what you mean...........
So again it comes down to the money.
Yes. He's overpaid.
Is that Zambrano's fault?
Whatever your career is, if your superior came and offered you a salary of $1,000,000 a year would you accept it? Even if you weren't worth $1M to the company? Of course you would!
Don't look at the contract and don't look at the name. Ask yourself if you'd like to have a pitcher on the Cubs that will (normally) throw 190+ innings with an ERA 15% better than league average in his worst years, and an ERA 35% above average in his better years. My guess is the answer to that question would be a resounding YES.
Actually I'll take issue with the money and how Zambrano has behaved and performed.
My opinion:
There is the responsibility of living up to reasonable expectations that go along with accepting a big contract. Management, fans and teammates have a right to expect results and efforts that are above and beyond the average-above average player.
Zambrano has failed to live up those expectations. My perspective is that he hasn't exercise due diligence; look at his comments about needing to improve his conditioning, not getting treatment for his back, getting suspended, tantrums, game impacting melt downs. Too often this guy has come up short when it counts. He sure talks a good game though.
If I accepted $1m salary from my boss. I would feel the burden of expectations, not just from others, but from myself. I wouldn't say "wow what an idiot my boss is for paying me so well". I would hold myself accountable.
Where do you see any behavior from this man child that indicates the self accountability or the probability to be more than just an above average pitcher; a #2 pitcher at best.
My opinion dump this time bomb on someone else and sign another above average pitcher for half the salary.
I think Milton Bradley's stats show that numbers don't mean anything when it comes to a clubhouse dynamic.
Do you honestly think that the rest of the NL doesn't know if you get into Z's head, you beat him without even swinging a bat?
I'm not saying I push Z out of town today. However, somebody at some point has to sit this goof down and put some pressure on him. He needs to step up, and become CONSISTENT. that's the key. The wins will take care of themselves if he's consistent.
Hendry made a comment about guys needing to live up to their career numbers. Don't think Z wasn't part of that statement?
its clubhouse dynamic with Zambrano? Do you think the other guys in the clubhouse have to tip toe around Z or something? From what I've gathered over the years, he's a likable guy in the clubhouse. But only Bruce can confirm what goes on over there.
"Do you honestly think that the rest of the NL doesn't know if you get into Z's head, you beat him without even swinging a bat?"
Now if that were REALLY the case, how would a pitcher win 60% of his games over his career which is a higer percentage of games than Tom Glavine, Brandon Webb, John Lackey, Jake Peavy, Mark Buerhle, and many, many others? (Z is ranked 13th active in Win%)
I get it.
We can bicker back and forth all day long, but my main points to this debate are:
1. Look up his win total since 2003 and compare that to active pitchers. Especially guys that are aces: Carpenter (injuries will lower his), Santanna, etc. Or even look it up since he signed his huge deal. I will be shocked if he's in the top 10 or even 15 for that. Don't give me the win debate either, because if you are going to quote winning percentage, you need to accept the wins.
2. Look up his QS in that same tme frame and compare that to others. From there we can figure out his percentage of quality starts to non quality starts. Out of 32 starts on average a year, I would hope/expect he has at LEAST a 66% Quality starts. Even then, 10 starts of giving up 4 or more runs, or not making it to the 6th is high for an ace.
3. Bruce posted something last year about how when Z runs makes statements, most Cubs ignore it. That doesn't sound like a leader to me. Sounds like a team getting tired of his BS act and antics.
4. Lastly, maturity/antics. Like most Zambrano detractors, that's where it runs it course with me. If the guy would mature, get professional help, or make a concerted effort to fix this, he would be a legitimate cy young candidate yearly. Instead, we get a guy who admits to not doing his side work, or working out, but challenges reporters to body builder poses? Really? Or talks about retiring because he's frustrated? What?
Do you see where somebody could get tired of it?
If you, or anyone else, is going to rip Bradley for being a complete loon, then you can't overlook Z and continously give him the benefit of the doubt.
I never said he was an Ace. I don't blame Zambrano that he's paid like an Ace. I wouldn't blame Zambrano if Hendry offers him $200 million for a 1 year deal. I don't care if Z plays for nothing. I don't care if he's a so called "leader" or not.
He is what he is. He IS a VERY GOOD pitcher.
You're looking at him like he should be a top 10 pitcher in the entire league. That's your fault for expecting too much. You shouldn't be blaming things on Zambrano, you should be blaming things on Hendry for paying him like an ace.
And we should be happy that we have a pitcher that is normally 15% better than league average.
As for Wins since 2003:
Johan - 111
Halladay - 111
CC - 106
Oswalt - 104
Pettite - 101
Lowe - 100
Zambrano - 100
Only guys with 100...and just to show how meaningless wins are, Jon Garland falls 3 guys behind Zambrano.
As for Bradley.....I don't care about his attitude. I didn't want him here when he was signed because I didn't expect him to play any more than 90 games. I thought he would produce when he did play, but he wouldn't play and we'd be stuck with a 4th OF for most of the season. He did just the opposite I thought: he played, but he didn't perform like he has in the past.
I appreciate you and Bruce looking up those stats. Yeah, if Garland has 97 wins that's not good.
I do blame Hendry for a lot of this crap. THis team is in TROUBLE next year. Too much money tied up to guys who are on the downsides of their careers. Yet, he gets a free pass. Whatever. I don't see how an owner allows somebody to go around and blow money and ruin his team's flexibility.
We agree on that. I also don't blame Zambrano for making 18 million, but I do expect him to be an ace, or shut up and stop pouting when he's not treated like an ace.
There really is little argument in favor of Zambrano being a true ace to this point of his career. As for him making $18M/yr, no it's not big Z's fault. But it is a fact, and given that there IS a budget, the point is that his $18M salary could have arguably been better spent in other areas. Does he hurt the team when he takes the mound? Normally, he doesn't. As Bruce has pointed out, he has kept the Cubs in their games most of the time. His drain on the team is when you consider they could basically have two Ted Lilly's for the same dollars.
Zambrano's starts and quality starts:
2009: 28 starts; 17 quality starts for 61 percent
2008: 30 starts; 17 quality starts for 57 percent
2007: 34 starts; 18 quality starts for 53 percent
2006: 33 starts; 22 quality starts for 67 percent
2005: 33 starts; 23 quality starts for 70 percent
2004: 31 starts; 22 quality starts for 71 percent
2003: 32 starts; 21 quality starts for 66 percent
Appreciate the stats help Bruce.
For the first time in a couple years, he had almost no starts where he was "shot-putting" the ball up to the plate. This season was an outlier year. And to further illustrate the point about judging a starting pitcher by wins, what if the Cubs hadn't scored any runs off Lincecum and Zambrano had to come out after eight or nine and gotten a no-decision. Would he have been less of a pitcher that night because he didn't get the win?
When the Cubs acquired Rich Harden last year they acknowledged he had a tender arm and needed to be given extra rest and used carefully. For the most part they did that, and it worked wonders. For the season on the whole, he made 25 starts, 9 on 4 days rest, 8 on 5 days rest, and 8 more on 6+ days of rest. That is 16, or 64% of his starts on "extra" rest. He had an OPS against of 465 and 566 with 5 or 6+ days of rest. This season, however, the Cubs threw out the game plan, and it cost them. He made 26 starts, 15 of which was on just 4 days rest, with 7 on 5 days and only 4 on 6+ days of rest. Again he had an OPS against of 647 and 528 on those 5 and 6+ days of rest, and ERAs of 3.92 and 1.80. His struggles occured on all those 4 day rest games, of which he nearly doubled his 2008 total. The OPS against was 829 and the ERA was 4.91. Either through gross incompetence or willful ignorance the Cubs ignored their own game plan with Harden and both, and they, were worse off. Two of those 4 days rest starts even occured in September, when they had extra arms available due to callups, and he struggled.
Sure, ideally you want a 33 start 215 inning guy, but there aren't a lot of ideal pitchers out there. Some will rack up the innings, but give you fairly mediocre performance in those innings. The Cubs have plenty of arms, but they don't have any that can compete with Harden on his best days. The season has plenty of off days, rain outs and post-September call-ups games, not to mention the Cubs routinely stick with a ridiculous 7 man bullpen with multiple guys capable of eating innings. Why not pay Harden his $10m, reduce the number of 4 day rest starts and actually carry through with the program you set out when he came here in the first place. They gave up good value for Harden, it would be foolish to let him walk and not get the draft picks.
Right now do you think the order is Samardzija, Gorzelanny and then Marshall? Do you see any of the minor league guys sneaking in there if everyone stays healthy?
It's conceivable that any of the group of Cashner, Coleman, Carpenter, Jackson could make his major-league debut by mid-season, depending on health and performance at the big-league level.
Sorry guys, but I just don't see all the love for Sean Marshall. Suffice it to say the Cubs are in trouble if his 86 mph fastball and lolly-pop curve are in the starting rotation. If they can get anything for him in trade, I'm all for it.
Wouldn't that represent clever resource management: taking the young left-hander who's had some success as a starter out of the rotation and so driving down his value, then trading him the following offseason when his value is probably at its lowest since his draft year. Trading low is a tactic of losing organizations, not winning ones. The Cubs already have to trade low on Bradley; I don't see the urgency to do more of the same with a young guy who has a solid chance to rebound if he's handled properly.
I think Marshall still has trade value (no thanks to the Cub management) as there always seems to be a market for southpaws. The Cubs need to pick a lane and stay in it regarding Marshall whether that is as a starter or relief pitcher. Your point about the the Cubs resource management is spot on. Remember how much value Pie and Patterson had at one time? The Cubs organization needed to determine if those guys were going to be productive players or not and by the time they figured out that they would not be the rest of the league also figured the same thing out.
It's a bit troubling to read that the Cubs primary goal is to re-sign Grabow. If he's the main focus, how expensive and lengthy will the contract be? We know Hendry's history when he makes a player a priority. They couldn't wait to get out of those multi-year deals with Howry and Estes. Grabow's career BAA, OBP, and OPS are .257, .339, .724. In comparison, Sean Marshall's numbers were .243, .320, .703 this year versus LH hitters. Against RH hitters, his OPS is about 100 points higher but then he really should be used as a lefty specialist and I believe he was leading the league for a while in stranding inherited baserunners. I'm not sure where he ended up in that category, but he's still young and inexpensive. Unless Ricketts has an open checkbook, I'd rather see the Cubs save the $4M/yr or so they will probably dish out to Grabow and put it towards actually signing a premier reliever.