Fall League and rumor talk

Fall League and rumor talk

Posted by Bruce on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 13:17

Way back when I was a kid, “AFL” meant American Football League, and what fun it was to watch the likes of Jack Kemp, Cookie Gilchrist, John Hadl and Joe Namath. And it’s cool to see the game officials in those red and white uniforms in the AFL throwback games on Sundays this year. Today, though, “AFL” means Arizona Fall League, as in baseball, and several of the Cubs’ top prospects are set to kick off the season today for the Mesa Solar Sox.

Shortstop Starlin Castro, pitcher Andrew Cashner and third baseman Josh Vitters, who might be 1-2-3 on the Cubs’ prospect list, are with Mesa, as are pitchers John Gaub, Blake Parker and James Russell, along with catcher Welington Castillo.

The Cubs may or may not bring the 19-year-old Castro to big-league camp in February, but he vaulted to the head of the class after playing in Mesa (Rookie League) last year. At Daytona (A) this year, he put up a hitting line of .302/.340/.391 before moving up to Tennessee (AA) and going .288/.347/.396. If he keeps up this pace, he could be your opening-day shortstop in 2011.

Gaub is one of the three pitchers the Cubs got in the trade for Mark DeRosa (who is riding a 10-game losing streak in the playoffs). Gaub had a 1.72 ERA as a reliever at Iowa (AAA) and a 2.83 ERA at Tennessee, where he held batters to a .157 average.

Parker was Iowa’s closer, and he racked up 22 saves while holding hitters to .196. I expect to see Gaub and Parker added to the 40-man roster this winter, which means the Cubs will get a good look at both in spring training.

As far as the big club goes, nature abhors a vacuum, and so do trade rumors and free-agent talk. Let’s remember that’s it’s way early in the off-season, and the Cubs still aren’t sure how much money they’ll have this winter. They've got a slew of arbitration-eligible players due for raises (see Marmol and Theriot). When it's all said and done, trades, and not big-ticket free agents, might be the way the Cubs go this winter.

The Cubs will have to move right fielder Milton Bradley, and you’ve heard the names Pat Burrell (Rays) and Aaron Rowand (Giants). My colleague Andrew Baggerly of the San Jose Mercury news has talked with a Giants person who said he’d OK a Rowand-for-Bradley deal. However, “chemistry” issues could put the kibosh on any such deal, real or hypothetical.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs/2009/10/12/sabeanbochy-still-wit...

Rowand has a terrible contract ($36 million coming over the next three years) and he’s been on the decline. Check out these hitting lines:

2009: .261/.319/.419
2008: .271/.339/.410
2007: 309/.374/.515

That’s a drop in OPS from .889 in 2007 to .738 this year.

Perhaps the most intriguing name to hit the streets recently, and I don’t know if the Cubs could get him, is Rockies outfielder Brad Hawpe, who apparently is on the outs in a crowded Colorado outfield picture. He’s a left-handed hitter.

Hawpe, 30, had a line of .285/.384/.519 with 23 homers and 86 RBI. His key numbers have been holding steady the last few years. He’ll make $7.5 million next year with a team option for $10 million in 2011. Hawpe can void the option if he’s traded, so it might be a one-year shot for the Cubs, if they were to pursue it. (You might remember, too, that Hawpe’s line drive hit Mark Prior in the elbow in 2004.)

Here's one take out of Denver:

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_13548753?source=rss

Against lefties, this year, Hawpe batted .243 while hitting .303 vs. righties.

As far as the infield, goes, there are a couple of interesting free agents out there if the Cubs want to go outside to get a second baseman and put Jeff Baker into the “DeRosa” utility role.

Reports say the Tigers won’ bring Placido Polanco back as a free agent. This year, Polanco had a hitting line of .285/.331/.396 with 10 homers and 72 RBI. He made $4.6 million.

The other name is Felipe Lopez, who had what amounted to a career year this year between the D’Backs and Brewers. Lopez’s line was .310/.383/.427 with 9 homers and 57 RBI. An article at fangraphs.com cautions that Lopez had a probably “unsustainable” BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .360 and an isolated-power (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .118. So there could be big red flags here.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/felipe-lopezs-outstanding-seaso...

Proceed with caution on all these rumors.

In the meantime, enjoy the playoffs, and the AFL. Now where’s my Abner Haynes jersey?

Rudy Jaramillo

Jaramillo would be the best free agent signing the Cubs could make, even if he's only a hitting coach.

Posted by luckycharlies on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 16:18
Randy Wells

Bruce -

Is there any concern over the heavy workload put on Wells this year? I believe he has logged close to 40 more IP over last years total. I believe it was Rosenthal that found a strong correlation between injuries and pitchers for those that pitched more than 30IP over the previous year.

Posted by JTK on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 13:54
Well's workload

I think Wells is probably the exception to this rule. It is not like he has not thrown several innings before. The main reason he threw many fewer innings in 2008 was that Toronto had him (rule 5 draft) and was trying to hide him on the roster(like we did with Patton), but eventually returned him to us. Wells is 27. He has thrown lots of innings in the minors and his arm should be prepared.

Generally when people are talking about injuries and workloads, they talk about number of pitches and amount of stressful innings. Wells had very few of these innings relative to most pitchers. He also had low pitches per inning in comparison with many pitchers. He actually threw about 195 innings this year between Iowa and the Cubs. In his 165 Cubs innings, he averaged 15 pitches per inning. That is fewer pitches per inning than Dempster, Zambrano, and Harden, and basically the same as Lilly. There were 19 starting pitchers in all of baseball that threw fewer pitches per inning pitched (160 innings minimum). And only 4 in all of baseball who threw less than 15 pitches per inning. Wells was 15.4. Joel Pineiro was the best, BTW. Uhhh, paging Jim Hendry, paging Jim Hendry!!!!

Posted by cubmadness on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 19:12
You're suggesting the Cubs should sign Pineiro?

Wouldn't that be Jason Marquis redux?

Posted by dat cubfan daver on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 09:15
Theriot

Waddle and Silve.......on 10/09 or 10/10 when asked about batting in many spots in the line up Theriot said "it's hard". "depending on where you hit in the line up, your approach to hitting changes". "i'd like to bat in one spot".

Posted by ruhtra on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 12:37
On Theriot

During spring training, I asked him about that. He said he'd like to hit first, second or seventh. He didn't seem to like eighth.

Posted by Bruce on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 12:41
Theriot

He may not have liked batting 8th but he's done a fine job of it. He hit .304 this year and .313 over the previous three seasons in the 8th slot. It probably would be a good idea to put him there and leave him there.

Posted by WSorBust on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 16:31
Theriot

Theriot's most valued in the #2 hole, where he is a natural, or will be again once he gets Lou's lunatic thought about his becoming the next Ryno out of his head.

The 8 hole is for leftovers... You know after you put the players in their most productive spots, or the spots where their talents are most needed, all subject to trying to balance the lineup and alternate R to L to R or vica versa, you invariably have one guy left...the leftover...he bats 8th!

Posted by BroLight on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 20:43
8th spot

There is truth in your statement and the fact that NL teams generally have their weakest hitter other than the starting pitcher, batting 8th in the lineup. But if the Cubs do manage to acquire a true leadoff hitter to play CF or in the middle infield, then Fukudome is a better choice than Theriot for the 2nd slot IMO.

Your #2 batter should be patient enough to give the leadoff hitter plenty of chances to steal bases, and have a high OBP to give the heart of the lineup lots of RBI opportunities. Fukudome has seen 4.17 and 4.29 pitches per PA these past two seasons compared to 3.68 adn 3.77 for Theriot. That's half a pitch more per PA, a pretty significant difference. And Fukudome's OBP numbers were .375 and .359 compared to .343 and .387 for Theriot.

Another consideration is how effective each of these guys can be batting eighth. Looking at the last two seasons that Fukudome has been with the Cubs, he's had 5 hits in 26 AB's in the 8th slot (.192 BA) compared to 26/78 for Theriot (.333 BA). Seeing as how Theriot has only struck out 151 times in 1182 AB's in these last two years, while Fukudome has struck out 216 times in 1000 AB's, their success batting in front of the pitcher is understandable.

Posted by WSorBust on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 22:46
8th spot

While it is true that Fukudome has a better OBP, he Ks too often and doesn't move the runners nearly as effectively as Theriot.

In the end, a MAJOR factor will be whether or not the Cubs actually get a true leadoff hitter and whether he bats L, R or S. The type of middle of the order hitter the Cubs get can also affect who will bat 2nd, as well as whether he is a high average hitter that could bat 3rd, pushing Lee to Cleanup, and which side of the plate he swings from as well.

Posted by BroLight on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 23:56
theriot

should be an 8 hitter IMO. or better yet, 9th!

Posted by Boozer on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 09:40
Rumors

Polanco - No.
F.Lopez - No.
Rowand - No.
Nathan - No.
Castillo - meh
Hawpe - meh

BJ Upton for Guzman/Marmol???
Bruce, completely disagree with you there. No way TB would do that. Not even close IMO.

There is still almost a month of baseball left, so we don't even know the full list of names that will be available. But so far, none of the names are all that exciting and don't really make a whole lot of sense.

Posted by Boozer on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 09:50
Hitting coach and BB

Bruce - have you heard any discussions about a new hitting coach? Phil Rodgers has speculated that they may be able to pry Rudy Jaramillo away from the Rangers. Have any other names been tossed around?

Also, do you anticipate BB getting back into coaching next year or will he be back in the booth with Len? I enjoy his work in the booth (even when he was teamed with Dick Stockton), but it would be good to see him get another chance to manage if it's something he wants to do.

Posted by cowboy2024 on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 08:20
BB

He's the best TV analyist in the business. It would have to be exactly the right situation for him to manage again. Like a lot of baseball guys, he hasn't gotten it out of his blood yet.

There's really nothing new on the hitting coach. They'll interview Dave Keller from the system and then go from there.

Posted by Bruce on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 10:53
Rumors

You gotta love trade/free agent rumors this time of year. When you don't make the playoffs, that's all we got.

If the Cubs have to suffer through another year of the LSU double-play connection -- Theriot and Fontenot -- we might as well bring in their former college teammate, Brad Hawpe. Not much of an outfielder though, as first base is his best position.

Stay away from Burrell (where would he play?) and Felipe Lopez (the only major league infielder with less range than Theriot). If they can get J.J. Hardy for Sean Marshall I say "jump on it."

Posted by oshkoshbgosh on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 08:10
Hawpe-Burrell ?

Last time I looked, the National League didn't have the D/H, which is what Hawpe & Burrell should be. Bad fielding outfielders would hurt the pitching staff. If the Cubs want to go this route then put Fox and Hoffpauir out there.
Would Rowand rebound, who knows, but Keeping Johnson to platoon with Fukudome might make more sense.

Watching the playoffs I noticed how athletic these teams are, perhaps except the Red Sox. The Cubs are not athletic enough. Cubs need a shortstop that covers more ground,
perhaps steal some bases, and put Theroit at secound base. This holds true for a faster
centerfielder. If Soriano and Soto would hit like they did in 2008, they could keep a guy
like Fuld in Centerfield.

Don't know who would want Bradley, or if they could get rid of him, only time will tell.
How about Steve Stone for the next GM, and Brenly for manager.

Posted by luckycharlies on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 06:25
Rumor Talk

Some things the Cubs could explore...

MLB.com says Carlos Beltran could be on the block for the Mets who are looking to unload his salary (19 million). Fuld/Reed Johnson could back him up when he is inevitably injured. My thoughts.........Castillo and Beltran (25 million) for Soriano (18 million)?

ESPN rumor central says Joe Nathan could be traded by the Twins and names the Cubs as a possibility. My thoughts.....I am with Bruce, I think the Cubs would prefer to have Marmol close, but if they could move Bradley and Fox(Twins need a 3bman) and cash(6 million) for Nathan(11.25 million), could they turn it down? They could then deal Marmol for another need(like Brian Roberts or someone similar).

By my calculations, the Cubs have 14.2 million coming off the books(Harden, Gregg, and Reed Johnson). If they can get rid of half of Bradleys contract, that is another 4.5 million. That is a total of 18.7 million.

They also have to give raises of 3.5 million to Dempster, 2 million to Soriano, 1.5 million to Fukudome, and .5 million to Miles. That is 7.5 million.

That gets us to 11.2 million to play with. Hopefully, the Rickets clan will allow for at least a modest bump in salary(5 - 10 million).

I am not sure how to figure arbitration eligibles, but maybe Bruce can help with estimates.

Posted by cubmadness on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 21:29
Twins Priorities

I think the Twins will be more focused on obvious holes like SS, 3B and their starting rotation than an outfielder this offseason. Plus, I can't see a guy like Gardenhire wanting anything to do with Milton Bradley. I suppose you can never say never, but I don't see Bradley in a Twins uniform. If it's a trade, I still think Bradley ends up in Detroit, Tampa, Seattle, Toronto, San Francisco or San Diego.

Your Beltran idea is intriguing from a Cubs perspective, but somehow I don't see the Mets trading 2 years of Beltran and Castillo to get 5 years of Soriano. That would be trading $50M in contracts for a $90M contract.

The Cubs biggest need is a lead-off hitter in my opinion, and based on the current roster set-up, that lead-off hitter would have to play 2B or CF. So, maybe the Cubs inquire again on Brian Roberts, or maybe they look at Luis Castillo via trade or Felipe Lopez in free agency. Or depending on the market, maybe they will wait to see if they can Johnny Damon cheap for 1-2 years, although it does seem like Damon's CF days are well behind him.

Posted by Hoopscubs on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 11:59
Hawpe

According to baseballreference.com Hawpe has never played CF in the big leagues and his defense in RF is brutal. Hate to be picky when it comes to getting rid of Bradley but I vote to keep looking.

Posted by knebworth on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 19:53
Agreed.

Hawpe's UZR numbers in right field are staggeringly bad. He also ranked next-to-last this past season in RZR for qualifying right fielders. Brad would bring more power than Kosuke, but the defensive cost of leaving Fukudome in centerfield, where he's somewhat less effective, and putting Hawpe in right, where he's a disaster of Dunnian proportions, would be too much.

Posted by dat cubfan daver on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 11:12
Longshot anyway

Thanks for the post. I don't think this one would happen anyway.

Posted by Bruce on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 20:13
BJ Upton

Bruce, I have heard the Rays might shop BJ Upton. Other than being right handed, he would fill a big hole in center with above average defense, great speed, and his power should return 2nd year after surgery. Rays need bullpen help. Would Marmol and Guzman be enough to get Upton? I think Marmol will disappoint as the full-time closer next year as he is too wild. Guzman had a great year but is fragile and his trade value should be pretty high right now.

Posted by Siwash on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 19:26
The Rays would do that

The Cubs certainly would not. They feel they have a homegrown closer at a reasonable price.

Posted by Bruce on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 20:04
Crane Kenney

Hi Bruce
What am I missing about Crane - he's not a baseball guy, he has no credibility and he alienated all Cub fans with the priest episode. He just seems to be a stuffed shirt who likes to sit in the expensive seats. What value does he add?

Posted by Ritz on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 16:26
On Crane

I don' think he should be involved at all on the baseball side of things. Hire a Pat Gillick or a John Schuerholz or a Sandy Alderson and put him above Hendry. Crane has oversee some things such as the Captain Morgan's Club and CBOE seats that have generated revenue. For that, give him credit. But he's only stepped on his tongue (Greek priest, gratuitous rip of Dusty Baker) and contributed to bad spending on the baseball side as the Trib gave it one final shot at going out in a blaze of glory.

Posted by Bruce on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 16:30
Crane...

Bruce....

If the new owners are as sharp as I think they are, they recognize that Crane's ONLY real value is that he IS a NON-baseball figure head, that couldn't build his own baseball organization, if his life depended on it.

I can NOT over-stress the point that Hendry has put together a very good organization with some very good people; and that the organization is beginning to produce that pipeline of players to the Majors, that we all desire. Bringing in a "baseball" Prez could be as big of a danger to the organization, as replacing Hendry. Either could set the organization back a decade, just to bring in their "own" people!

Posted by BroLight on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 21:45
Hawpe

I haven't read the rumors on Hawpe, but would any Cubs deal to get him involve sending Bradley to Colorado? Given what you said about their crowded outfield, that's probably not the case. But the Cubs certainly need to jettison Bradley and his 2010 salary if they have any chance of affording Hawpe. This almost calls for a 3-team deal: Hawpe to Cubs, Bradley and maybe some 2011 cash to Team X, prospects to Colorado.

Posted by Hoopscubs on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 15:28
Hawpe

What I read was that the Rockies are overloaded with LH hitters, the opposite of the Cubs' problem. So maybe they would have some degree of interest in Bradley. BTW....Hawpe plays RF so Fukudome would have to stay in CF, and I believe Hawpe is considered average at best defensively. But the Cubs could surely use his bat. They would do well to add some groundball pitchers to the staff with an OF of Soriano, Fukudome, and Hawpe.

Posted by WSorBust on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 18:43
Straight up?

No, I don't think they can do a Bradley to Colorado deal straight up without involving another team. There will be a market for Bradley, but a limited one. Hendry will need to be at his most creative here.

Posted by Bruce on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 16:31
Some Hawpe Ideas

Had some time to think about this last night. Looking at the Rockies roster and their 2009 stats, if they were to trade Hawpe as it has been speculated they might, they would most likely want a pair of pitchers and either a starting 2B or a left-handed hitting corner OF, who could platoon with Ryan Spilborghs in LF or RF.

Jim Hendry would seem to have the "inventory" of players to get a deal done here. Even if Harden departs, he has decent depth in the rotation, where he could potentially dangle a Marshall or Gorzelanny - each would be under team control for 3 more seasons, but arbitration eligible. The DeRosa trade gave Hendry decent depth in the bullpen as well, where he could move a Jeff Stevens or Aaron Heilman type. Regardless of whether Jeff Baker starts or plays a super-sub, it does seem Mike Fontenot's days are finished here. And Jake Fox's ability to play 1B, 3B and corner OF does make Micah Hoffpauir expendable in my opinion.

I could see the Rockies agreeing to deal Hawpe for Marshall, Stevens and Hoffpauir. Normally, you would question a 3-for-1 deal, but this one would be absolutely worth it to both teams even if Hawpe is sub-optimal defensively. The Rockies are re-building their OF around Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler, so saving the $7.5M by trading Hawpe would allow them to spend on their other needs.

Hawpe is under control for 2010 at $7.5M. There is a 2011 club option on him for $10.0M, but Hawpe can void it if traded. I feel the key for Hendry in making this deal is less about Colorado's needs, but more on Ricketts' budget and how much cash Hendry will have to eat in 2010 when dealing Bradley.

Again, it seems like this entire offseason comes down to what the Cubs have to give up (players, cash) to deal Bradley, and what they have to take back. I certainly would prefer the Cubs to get Hawpe's productive bat (it has been even away from Coors Field) over a Bradley trade that involves Rowand or Burrell.

Therefore, I think Hendry needs to quickly turn his attention to dealing Bradley for a pitcher. He may need to accept a Nate Robertson/Dontrelle Willis/Jeremy Bonderman type deal with Detroit. Detroit is as desperate to move one of those $10M salaries for a bat, as the Cubs are desperate to move Bradley. The negotiation may end up being focused on how much of Bradley's 2011 salary will the Cubs need to pay. Maybe the Cubs pay less cash in 2011 if they throw Mike Fontenot into the deal as he'd be a cheaper 2B option for Detroit instead of them having to re-sign Placido Polanco.

Just some thoughts!
Hoops

Posted by Hoopscubs on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 11:13
Soriano

Bruce,
How big of a role did John McDonough play in signing Soriano? I know Hendry gets all the grief for the signing but it's been my contention that McDonough wanted to make a big splash and influenced Hendry in making the signing. I think we are seeing the same thing happening with the Blackhawks. They went out and signed Brian Campbell to an albatross of a contract and Dale Tallon takes the heat for it. Again as in Hendry's case I suspect he was influenced by McDonough to make the move to make a big splash in his first season as president. The two signings are very similar and the common denominator is John McDonough.

Posted by jhawk159 on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 15:20
Trib

Certainly Hendry's bosses, John McDonough and Crane Kenney included, had a big hand in overpaying Soriano. They saw the empty seats in '06 and figured the organization had to do something big. If it were up to Hendry alone, I'd bet they could have had Soriano for "only" six years.

Posted by Bruce on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 15:23
Harden

Hey Bruce,

Are the Cubs going to offer him arbitration? If not, why wouldn't they have traded him for a couple of low prospects? It know most of the rumors have the Cubs not interested in signing him back.

Posted by Riggs on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 14:42
On Harden

I'd say it's unlikely the Cubs are going to offer arbitration to Harden. It's been stated elsewhere that they Cubs definitely won't do so, but they haven't come to a final decision. Things could change, but in the end, I don't believe they will offer arbitration. I don't know what was offered in any possible trades, and the Cubs no doubt thought they were still in the race.

As I've blogged before, the real wild card is Harden's medical situation. Only the Cubs have seen the MRIs and whatnot. I'm not sure what those show. If you offer him arbitration and he takes it, do you have the money? Draft picks have become more valuable, and there might be teams out there who wouldn't take a one-year flyer on a guy if they were going to lose a first-round pick. And to go out long term on Harden is risky.

Posted by Bruce on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 14:53
Harden

Harden certainly isn't without value, but the risk IS there.

For the present, the Cubs should take a "maybe" approach and give Harden a chance to collect a few offers. After their protected negotiations window expires, there will still be about 2 weeks for Harden to collect offers before the decision on Arbitration has to be made.

If he gets good offers (higher than the Cubs would consider going) offer him Arbitration and let him go....but with the notion that if he returns there would be a good possibility he would be used out of the pen and as a spot starter. If the early offers are low-ball, approach him with the idea that because of his fragility, he should consider a role as a spot starter and part time SU/Closer and make him a good 1+option offer but don't offer arbitration.

If the situation is approached as above, it could be a win for the Cubs whichever way it goes.

Posted by BroLight on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 22:07
Interesting ideas.

I like out-of-the-box thinking like this, but Rich Harden is still far too valuable to pitch out of the bullpan. Also, he needs the recovery time of a starting pitcher - he likely couldn't pitch on consecutive days, so he'd basically just be taking up space in the 'pen. This is why the idea of making him a closer, while logical on the surface, doesn't really pan out.

Posted by dat cubfan daver on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 11:15
Harden

I think his value as a starter, a regular starter, is overblown. The problem is that HE may not know this yet.

He can be very effective as a starter, IF you have the pen to withstand the long relief necessary to back up a 5 innings pitcher, and basically that is what Harden is. His presence in the regular rotation puts a tremendous strain on the pen in terms of innings pitched.

On the other hand you know going in that this is the case: He throws about 100 pitches every 5th or 6th day with a side session in between. His side sessions, as I understand them, have been limited to about 30 pitches. Now if you take those two factors and assume that he can not pitch back to back games, and even maybe only every 3rd game, he could be worth every cent of $10M IF he rests Marmol or one of the other SU guys every 3rd day and continues to be as hard to hit.

After all, with the Cubs staff, especially without Harden, there is going to be 2+ innings of relief nearly every game. That's the reason the Cubs have tried to keep 3 SU guys prepared. Now if ONE of those 3 is Harden, he could collect 10 saves and 40 holds and get killed a couple of times and still be worth it, because his stuff is so predictably great.

Now, do I really expect this to happen? No, Too many things have to happen just right to put the Cubs into position to have the option to consider this. When you add this to the uncertainty around the Bradley situation, Hendry is going to be looking for people for roles he can count on without experimentation.

Still, though, the situation should be approached in a manner that keeps his options open as long as possible.

Posted by BroLight on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 14:57
Harden

I doubt teams would tip their hands and talk money with Harden before the Cubs would have to offer arbitration. that makes no sense. Cubs will have a decision to make and I think its already made.

they want Chone Figgins and think it will take the $10M+ that Harden will get so they won't offer Harden arbitration.

Posted by Boozer on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 09:42
Harden

It could happen as you suggest, but it could also happen just as I outlined it....ESPECIALLY because there are so few good starters available this year.

But over all, the point is that you don't make that decision until you have to, and you keep your options open as long as possible, and you don't write off a pitcher like Harden, when you have just proven that he can get through a season if handled correctly, and because pitchers as hard to hit as he is, don't grow on trees. Guys like Harden, you FIND a way to use, and I think he would be LIGHTS OUT as an 8th inning guy and closer when Marmol has pitched 3 days in a row, or blows up!

Now if he doesn't want to return or gets an offer that doesn't fit this year's budget and situation, then you have to let him go, but not otherwise!

Posted by BroLight on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 10:05
Re:

I've said all along the Cubs *should* offer Harden arbitration and I think it would go down as one of Hendry's biggest mistakes considering he could've saved the club some money by just letting Minnesota take his contract (they were out of it when Harden was claimed, regardless of what the standings said). Heilman too; he should've been let go to whoever it was the claimed him.

And going to the bullpen was an idea I threw out there this summer (and was laughed at) but Harden in the bullpen at $10M is a waste of money.

Posted by Boozer on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 11:51
Harden

In my opinion, you still haven't made a forward-looking compelling case as to why the Cubs should offer arbitration to Harden. Your case is based all on rear-view stuff: they gave up a lot to get him, they should have made the trade with Minnesota, etc... that's all water under the bridge now. With Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells, Samardjiza, Gorzelanny and Marshall all under some form of team control in 2010, should they tie up $9-10M in Harden when they have offensive holes to address? I think the answer has to be a resounding no. Unless, you are planning on moving Z, Lilly or Dempster this offseason.

Posted by Hoopscubs on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 12:05
doh

I replied to this and must have only hit "preview" instead of submit. grr....

anywho....Harden made $7M this year, he'd likely get about $10M in arbitration for a whopping $3M raise. Or 1 Aaron Miles.

If not offered arbitration, he'll likely have a bidding war for 1 year deals that could get him $10M or more...probably more.

So why not offer arb, and even if Hendry doesn't want him, trade him for a AA prospect? It's a no brainer IMO.
This is dependent on what Type of free agent he is. Type B you offer and if he declines no one loses a draft pick to sign him. If he's a Type A, then you need to ask yourself if you want Harden in the rotation next year (or trade him!)

as for that rotation, I'm only happy to have Z, Dempster, and Lilly.
Gorzellany, Samardzija don't look like MLB caliber starters to me. Randy Wells I'm not confident will be anywhere near what he was this year. But he can slot in at #5.
But that leaves me with 3 good starters without Harden.

as for offense, 2B and CF are the only places to upgrade. we won't know who is going to be available for another month yet, but I'm sure there are going to be PLENTY of low cost solid options for either spot.

Posted by Boozer on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 13:44
Placido

At 34 would it be worth giving up a 2nd round for him? I think he is a type B free agent.

Posted by Riggs on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 14:34
Polanco

Polanco's asking price may make the whole point moot, anyway. They might not be able to afford him.

Posted by Bruce on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 14:54
Second Base

If the Cubs are going to go outside of the organization to get a second baseman they might look at Iwamura from Tampa if they don't pick up his option. Sign him to a one year deal with an option and then maybe move Theriot over to second once Castro is ready. I think Polanco is overrated and Iwamura has the edge on which side he stands in the batters box if the Cubs are still holding to that philosophy.

What do you think about the JJ Hardy for Sean Marshall rumor that's going around?

Posted by Wish on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 13:36
Also.....

At one point, my Uncle held the single season record for most saves in the AFL.....

Posted by Wish on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 13:51
Hardy-Marshall?

I don't see that happening. The Cubs are in no big hurry to move Theriot off of short. Hardy's money would be too much for the Cubs, given their situation.

Posted by Bruce on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 13:48
Theriot

... what do the Cubs see in Theriot that I am not seeing? His defense and OBP seem to always significantly decline after the all-star break, and he seems like a Mendoza line player in the month of September. I really don't want to see him hitting lead-off anymore either. Just bat him 8th. I'm really hoping the Cubs can get a high OBP guy to lead-off and play 2B. I still like Luis Castillo, if the Mets are willing to throw in some cash or take a contract.

Hoops

Posted by Hoopscubs on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 15:23
Castillo

I also like Luis Castillo as a 2B option and brought his name up awhile back. The Mets would supposedly like to deal him and go after Hudson, and maybe they would be willing to take Bradley in a deal.

Posted by WSorBust on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 18:39
Put that one on Lou

Lou promised to get Theriot more rest this year, and it really didn't happen. No doubt Ryan wore down again. His defense grades out surprisingly well, according to some of the metrics out there. He's fine on the routine play, and that's half the battle right there. He also seems to know where to position players (with the help of Trammell and scouting reports, of course). You can bat him seventh or eighth most of the time and not worry about him. Much of Theriot's future will depend on how fast Castro rises.

Posted by Bruce on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 15:30