Defending the Zooker (in a tangential sense)

Hey gang,

Just finished writing a column about Ron Zook's job prospects that'll appear in Saturday's Herald...and will probably pop up on the web site sooner.

Since space was limited, I didn't get much of a chance to explore this Zook-related angle: Does anyone think Pat Fitzgerald's job should be in jeopardy at Northwestern?

Here's why I ask. The unbiased Sagarin computer ratings provide these Predictor power rankings for the Big Ten going into Saturday's games:

1. Iowa 86.00 (11th nationally out of 245 FBS and FCS teams)
2. Ohio State 84.59 (13th)
3. Penn State 82.77 (17th)
4. Michigan 78.15 (32nd)
5. Michigan State 77.6 (33rd)
6. Wisconsin 75.31 (51st)
7. Purdue 72.49 (59th)
8. Minnesota 70.72 (65th)
9. Indiana 63.75 (97th)
10. Northwestern 63.52 (98th)
11. Illinois 58.7 (127th)

So, basically, Illinois is 1-5 and Zook is on the hot seat while NU is 4-3 and Fitzgerald is fine (rightfully so, in my opinion).

But if the Wildcats and Illini met on a neutral site today, Northwestern would be a 5-point favorite according to Sagarin. And, since Sagarin tosses in a 3.5-point advantage for the home team, the Illini would be a 1.5-point underdog if they were meeting now instead of Nov. 14 in Champaign.

I realize this is putting a narrow focus on the "Should Zook Be Fired" argument. The Illini are in their second consecutive year of underachieving (while Northwestern just went to the Alamo Bowl and could get to another bowl with a win over Indiana on Saturday). The Illini never came close to hanging with Missouri or Ohio State, which adds to the team's poor perception. And, for some reason, they've turned Juice Williams from a high-risk, high-reward quarterback into a low-risk, low-reward quarterback.

But the disparity between the perception of Northwestern's current position and Illinois' current position serves as another data point in the argument that Illinois needs to schedule smarter.

Look here:
Illinois has a 31-point home win over an FCS team.
Northwestern has a 33-point home win over an FCS team.

Illinois lost 24-14 at home to Michigan State.
The following week, Northwestern lost 24-14 at Michigan State.

Northwestern wrapped up 3 wins in non-conference play by squeaking out a 3-point home win over Eastern Michigan and a 10-point win over Miami Ohio. Both of those MAC teams are still searching for their first wins.
Meanwhile, Illinois finishes its regular season with a trip to No. 5 Cincinnati and a visit from Fresno State (which ranks No. 20 in the Predictor numbers).

Is there any change in 2010? Let's take a look:

Illinois:
Sept. 4: vs. Missouri (in St. Louis)
Sept. 11: SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Sept. 18: NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Dec. 4: at Fresno State

Would now be a good time to point out that Northern Illinois (3-3) has a Sagarin Predictor rating that's 17 points better than Illinois? Or that Southern Illinois (5-1), the No. 3 team in the FCS rankings, has a Sagarin that's 10 points better than the Illini?

Northwestern:
Sept. 4: at Vanderbilt
Sept. 11: ILLINOIS STATE
Sept. 18: at Rice
Sept. 25: TBA??

Considering Vandy is 2-5 this year and Rice sits at 0-7, it's fair to expect the Wildcats to have a considerably easier slate than Illinois again next year.

LW