The silly season (Vernon Wells)
There's a report out of Toronto talking about a possible Cubs trade of Milton Bradley to the Blue Jays for Vernon Wells:
http://www.torontosun.com/sports/columnists/bob_elliott/2009/10/31/11588...
There's even a quote in the story from a "Cubs official": "It's early on, but we think this one has legs. But they aren't the only team we're talking with."
Let's stop and think here a minute, shall we? First off, the highest-ranking of Cubs officials who make these kinds of decisions don't talk about them and not in those terms. Certainly Jim Hendry and Randy Bush don't. And today, a Cubs person reacted with incredulity to the report, asking if anybody really thinks the Cubs would take on the kind of money Wells has coming as part of a ridiculous seven-year, $126 million contract that runs through 2014. (The Cubs already have an outfielder of their own with a ridiculous contract.)
So the bottom line is that there are no "legs" or any other body parts to this rumor. It is not happening.
Aside from the money, Wells has declined offensively and is terrible defensively, with a UZR rating of -17.6 this year.
Wells' hitting line this year: .260/.311/.400 for an OPS of .711. His OPS-plus was 87. His weighted on-base average (wOBA) was only .314. Yikes. He also had 15 homers and 66 RBI in 158 games after hitting 20 homers and driving in 78 in 2008 in 108 games.
Bradley's line: .277/.378/.397 for a .775 OPS. His OPS-plus was 101.
The Cubs will trade Bradley, but they aren't going to do anything so monumentally dumb like trading him to Toronto for Vernon Wells.
And to think these kinds of rumors are just starting.
from the 2009 performance and their contracts you really don't have to look far. Soriano (in 09) wouldn't be starting, fukudome is a 4th OF'er, and we know Bradley stinks. as for this group winning under Lou, what have they won? did winning those divisions get them in the WS? in baseball/sports you're not a winner till you get into the WS, super bowl, big game, etc.
didn't they fire Collins cause he couldn't take the Bulls from A to B?
maybe I'm wrong but if fans are happy with just winning the division than more power to them. i'd rather have mediocre teams like the 2006 Cards and win the WS.
Under Piniella the Cubs have averaged 88.3 wins per year. That's pretty darn good. Yes, the big picture says that it should be World Series or bust but you can't ignore the fact that there has been some very good baseball played around these parts lately......and that hadn't happened consistently in quite some time.
Just got back to New York and heard from an industry source who's not with the Rays that they are on the verge of completing a trade of 2B Akinori Iwamura.
The Rays were looking to do some kind of deal since they weren't planning to pick up the $4.85-million option to bring him back. What's interesting is that the source indicated the deal wasn't with the Cubs or the Dodgers as has been speculated on but to an unexpected team. Hmmm.
http://blogs.tampabay.com/rays/2009/11/rays-working-on-iwamura-deal.html
Commence speaking about how you didn't want Iwamura anyways.
I'm guessing Hendry at least kicked the tires on that one. I assume the Rays would have wanted the Cubs to take on the vast majority of Bradley's salary + all of Iwamura's.
It would have been nice if they could have gotten him considering his high OBP, decent speed, solid defense and the fact that he spent 2 years at 3B so he could be a legitimate backup to Rammy.
Just doesn't sound like the teams would be a good fit financially and a lot of other teams are most likely interested in Iwamura.
Iwamura may have those qualities but Baker figures to be back and provide the Cubs with a backup option at 3B. There is no certainty that Ramirez will be 100% healthy next year and they definitely need to cover their bases (no pun intended) better this time around. They really need to find their leadoff hitter to play CF or the middle infield, and if it's SS he'd better be a significant upgrade from Theriot defensively. Same thing with Marmol as their closer. They had better have another option in the bullpen who is better suited to back him up than is Grabow. Iwamura isn't much of a base stealing threat. I'd rather see them swing a deal for Luis Castillo. The Mets are in need of another outfielder I believe and have Castillo under contract for two more years and were rumored to be seeking to trade him and go after Orlando Hudson. So maybe a deal to send Bradley and cash for Castillo could work. There is a difference of $9M in their salaries over the next two seasons. Make that deal and get to work on finding another impact bat for RF, preferably a LH bat.
Iwamura to the Bucs? That's a bit of a surprise, but I guess they had to get somebody with a recognizable name to replace Sanchez / Wilson in the lineup.
Cubs are in bigtime trouble if the offseason is all about moving Milton Bradley. This team has substantial needs if the goal is to legitimately compete in 2010.
Oh how I wish the Ricketts would cut to the chase and do away with this 2010 "transition year" philosophy. Jim Hendry needs to be fired now, not a year from now. Why not start forward momentum on day one instead of day 366?
Here's a blurb from an article in the Tribune by Paul Sullivan. I guess Hendry's definition of a "real good year" doesn't require winning a game in the post-season, but that would explain why Hendry doesn't already know "how much he'll have to improve the club" for next year:
I don't ever feel any different about that," Hendry said. "I put a lot of pressure on myself. We've had real good years, and we've had not-good years. We had it going really good in the right direction and this year had a hiccup.
"I'm certainly capable of leading the baseball organization to where everyone wants it to go, and if there comes a day when I'm not the right guy, then I don't think I should be here anyhow."
The Cubs' organizational meetings run Tuesday through Friday in Mesa, Ariz., and Hendry should know by the end of the week how much he'll have to improve the club. Hendry will huddle with his key advisers, including assistant general manager Randy Bush, to map out a strategy for 2010.
is a real good year.
No they didn't win a playoff game. they had a bad three games. it happens.
He has backed Hendry and pinhead Pinella who is a lame duck manager which in of itself will cause internal problems with the players and coaching staff next season.Just listening to the Ricketts they know the business end but there isn't one of them who can keep Hendry honest with his Ivy league resume for baseball experience.Cubs are at least five years away!!!!!!
Get Ryno in the managers seat a.s.a.p and get rid of the goofy pitching coach.He is timid and not in control of the staff.
with Lou here this year I'll say they are 3-4 years away. with Ryno or Brenly they could be good next year. here's my thinking.
i talked up Castro in late July, early august. i said bring him up in September, send him to winter ball, bring to spring training and if he's as good as his fast tract record shows roll the dice. most on here and baseball people said he's 2 years away. well they send him to the fall league, Bruce even said they a are thinking of bringing him to spring training, and lately some of the baseball (media) are saying the same. no other (position) rookie in this system has moved so fast this year, not even close.
play Fuld in CF and Castro at SS, Theriot to 2nd, Fuku would than move to his position RF. that improves your D up the middle and as a whole which in turn improves the Pitching. a good confident manager (Ryno/Brenly) i believe would say they could win with this bunch if no big trades were made. Ryno i believe has managed Castro and Brenly likes Fuld. this would give you that extra year for your minor leaguers, trades, and get rid of big salary players.
Lou has already cried since about mid august how he needs another RBI bat in the OF, so Fuld will be the 4th OF'er, has stated that Colvin is at least another year away which means another year of bad D. the way he manages he can't win with this team as it is now. have you ever heard him talk about D or fundamentals?
"i don't know what else to do", how many times did you hear him say that last year? so 3-4 years since he's staying for his last year. now that's my personal opinion.
PS, since he says Colvin is at least a year away (odd, Lou's last) that means if Colvin ever makes it he'll be about 27 or older.
Look....I'm not saying that the Cubs couldn't win the NL Central with the lineup you proposed but if you compare that proposed lineup to the lineups the Yankees and Phils are putting out in the WS you can see that the Cubs wouldn't match up.
I agree that the Cubs need one more impact bat in the lineup. Right handed, left handed...I don't know and I'm not sure that I care. The Phils throw out a bunch of lefties and they do fine. Maybe that impact bat is Soriano, maybe it's Soto...maybe it's someone that's not currently in the Cubs system. If the Cubs had Lee, A-Ram, Soriano and Soto hitting like they did in 2008 then they would be on the right path but it would be nice to have one more impact bat in there.
I haven't seen Castro play but I find it hard to believe that he could come in next year and play shortstop on a pennant winning team like the Cubs want to be. When was the last time a rookie played shortstop for a WS winning ballclub?
I heard enough talking about D and fundamentals from Dusty Baker to fill a lifetime.
Saying you could win with this group and actually doing it are two different things and only Lou has won with the group.
let me correct myself. when i said Ryno/Brenly would say they could win with this team i didn't mean the WS. i meant they'd think this team could be good in 2010. they would never knock the out going manager by saying they could win (WS) with this 2009 team as is. i think they'd be better than the 2009 version, better than the 2009 team that Lou gave up on. and remember teams have won with less talent than the Phil's and yanks. never say never.
plus you'd be giving your farm system an extra year for development, another year less of big contracts. you can prepare yourself for bigger things in 2011.
look they would be better with speed, stolen bases, (2 things Lou talks about) D, pitching, i believe Soto will bounce back, Soriano can't be any worse (hitting), A-Ram will be back at almost 100%, etc. having said that it won't happen with Lou here. Lou is an offensive manager, always has been.
i agree saying something is one thing, doing it is another. Baker talked the talk never walked it. Lou hasn't won with just offense. no one remembers you if you don't get to and win the WS.
I'm saying if no big trade is made and Lou is here the Cubs are not going to the WS. so make the change now, won't happen.
i hope I'm wrong. as a Cub fan i hope they go all the way, yes even under Lou.
i just don't see it under Lou. Lou is the same as Baker in that he talks the talk but doesn't walk it. he'll say one thing and do another or do nothing. he really never made any long term changes. he went with his baseball cards and that failed him. now he wants another card. remember he wanted the lefty hitter after last year. "beware of what you ask for" was meant for him. injuries are part of the game, you don't use them as excuses. you make the correct/best changes, yet as the season went on he started using them more and more.
the new owner made it clear, spending is ok if you spend it right, and he is not eating most of Bradley's contract. so what is Hendry going to do if anything? what is Lou going to do if he doesn't get that RBI bat?
off the top of my head i can't remember a team winning the WS with a rookie SS. however when is the last time a team with an average SS, no 2nd baseman, no CF'er, no RF'er, bad D LF'er won the WS? like i said it's just my opinion. Wish have a great day, Art
They are the last team to win that way, if you count Eckstein as average. They had Edmonds in CF but he only hit .257 with 19 homers. Encarnacion in RF, Taguchi in LF.
Hendry isn't going to do much this offseason. The new owner(s), at least how I read it, said that they would spend wisely but the budget wasn't going to increase much heading into 2010. The team the Cubs have, minus Bradley and minor players, is the team they are going to have. They aren't signing Holliday, they aren't signing Bay. They aren't trading for Halladay.
In the future the Cubs have some expiring contracts so we'll find out then what happens with how they spend money.
Granted, Lou didn't have his best season last year but he has brought life to this organization. Young players know that they are going to get a chance and they need to produce when they get that chance. He has no problems shuttling guys up and down from Iowa to fill out the end of the roster based on what he needs each week. Don't think that the guys in the minors don't see that and plan accordingly.
On the field, I feel like he's surrounded himself with good coaches, even GP before he was fired last year. The support and guidance is there for the players at the major league level. Now, is his inning to inning strategizing the best? Probably not, but Lou is looking for a six inning game and then he can turn it over to his bullpen. He wins by cutting the time of the game down. He was successful with that until last season.
Does he love offense? Yes, who doesn't but his successful teams have been filled by one or two star players and a bunch of role players.
I don't think Sandberg/Brenly would ever publicly state they could win more with this team than Lou. Lou didn't give up on 2009, some of the players didn't produce like they were estimated to (Fontenot, Soto, Dempster, Zambrano, A-Ram, Soriano, Heilman, etc.). The team just didn't have enough to get it done and you could see that very early in the season.
well in 2006 Taguchi played better D than the 2009 Soriano, 06 Edmonds and 08 (Cubs) Edmonds was a lot better than 09 fukudome, Encarnacion was better (19 hr) than 09 Bradley, and Duncan the 4th OF'er who platooned between LF and RF had 22 hr's. they also had Scott Roland, and a guy named Pujois. this 2006 team won the WS. they were not a great team, but they were a lot better than the 2009 Cubs.
now some people will say they were the worse team to ever win a WS, and there was better teams in 2006. the fact remains that the 2006 WS champs were the St Louis Cardinals.
As a Cub fan i wish i could say the Cubs were WS champs in 206, 07, 08, or 2009.
I agree, they were better than the Cubs this past year but the Cards OFers that year weren't tearing things up. Luckily I didn't have to search long and hard to find that mediocre bunch that won the WS!
Yes, he's going to make improvements in and around the park, but if the team, and
players don't improve, it matters little, and us fans will stop showing up.
One of the beauties of buying the Cubs is that people show up at the ball park even when the Cubs lose. They show up despite disgusting bathroom facilities, below average food choices, and no close parking. They show up no matter what. I agree that Ricketts needs to build the Cubs into a perrenial winner, but the truth is that fans will continue to show up at Wrigley even if he doesn't.
It's being reported by Bruce Levine that the Cubs are trying to work out a two-year deal with John Grabow worth an estimated $6.5-7.5M and that Grabow's agent is attempting to get a third year vesting option. Is Hendry really making Grabow a priority? Grabow isn't worth that sort of money. He made $2.3M this year, and wouldn't figure to get that much of an increase thru arbitration so if Hendry is truly so keen on keeping him around, why not offer arbitration and then propose two years at $5-5.5M, take it or leave it? At least they would net a draft pick if he leaves, and there are comparable, and better pitchers they could sign. Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano are a couple who appear to be leaving the Braves as free agents. If Hendry can land a lefty and a righty of that sort of ability, Guzman becomes a very strong fourth arm if he pitches anywhere close to what he did this year. Guys like Marshall and Caridad could round out the rest of the pen at very little money.
When is this overpayment for mediocre players (Aaron Miles comes to mind) going to stop? As far as the bullpen goes, if the plan is to hand Marmol the closer job for 2010, then it would make sense to sign another pitcher with the ability to step in and be a lights out type closer if Marmol struggles to find the plate again next year. The Levine report mentions that Grabow could back up Marmol but he has a career total of six saves to go with sixteen blown saves. This kind of stuff makes many fans, including myself, scratch the old noggin. They went into 2009 with a definite need of a quality lefty specialist, while St.Louis swooped up Dennys Reyes for a mere $1M. The money isn't there to keep Harden or Wood or DeRosa, but it sure seems to be there to overpay for mediocre veterans.
...the Cubs from winning anything. In fact, he let Hendry spend money and did not get involved with any baseball decsions, which is what you want from an owner.
The problem has been the baseball decisions on many fronts. If you get too many of those wrong, you won't be able to sustain winning no matter how much money you spend.
With Ricketts; I like what he has to say and I hope he holds up to this and holds people accountable (which was a Tribune problem) and makes the right changes when appropriate.
Bruce
I was glad to hear Tom Ricketts say that he and his family want to build a strong farm system My question then is this. What are the rules as they pertain to taking the good talent from other teams? Scouts, managers, coaches? It is apparent to me that the Cubs coaching lacks at some levels of the minors We consistently get pitchers who throw through a wall and strike out a lot of batters but walk a lot of them too. Also, our scouting in my 40 years of being a fan hasn't been stellar. Shawon Dunston. Kerry Wood. Geovany Soto. Can't think of too many others that have been spectacular. But, we allow someone like Casey MaGehee to go to the Brewers for NOTHING in the Rule 5 draft. That is inexcusable You cannot tell me there wasn't someone else they could have left unprotected. Hendry when he came here was outstanding Seems with the keys to the Tribunes vault, he lost his ability to judge talent.
Bruce
I was glad to hear Tom Ricketts say that he and his family want to build a strong farm system My question then is this. What are the rules as they pertain to taking the good talent from other teams? Scouts, managers, coaches? It is apparent to me that the Cubs coaching lacks at some levels of the minors We consistently get pitchers who throw through a wall and strike out a lot of batters but walk a lot of them too. Also, our scouting in my 40 years of being a fan hasn't been stellar. Shawon Dunston. Kerry Wood. Geovany Soto. Can't think of too many others that have been spectacular. But, we allow someone like Casey MaGehee to go to the Brewers for NOTHING in the Rule 5 draft. That is inexcusable You cannot tell me there wasn't someone else they could have left unprotected. Hendry when he came here was outstanding Seems with the keys to the Tribunes vault, he lost his ability to judge talent.
We should start a contest to see who the player is going to be next week that the Cubs are supposedly trading Bradley for........I'm going with Bonderman.
Bruce -- I heard a rumor that a deal for Bradley has already been reached and the Cubs are just waiting for the World Series to be over to announce the deal. I know you'd report it if you had the info, but do you think this could be possible? Have you heard this rumor?
I have not heard this rumor.
Thanks, Bruce!
did you hear that rumor from?
I can't say I heard it first hand. It was passed on to me by a friend who heard it on the radio in North Carolina. Not exactly a "Cubs official who wished to remain anonymous," but I figured it was worth checking on.
Is it possible the Indians would trade Grady Sizemore? Clearly, they are in rebuilding mode again. Seems like a good match, Cubs could give prospects and salary relief to the Indians. Cubs get Sizemore and Kerry Wood(and his contract), Indians get Vitters, Jake Fox, a pitching prospect like Cashner or Jackson, and maybe another arm like Caridad.
Looks like that would give the Indians about 30 million in salary relief(for 2009/2010) and several reasonably good prospects.
Lets see. Sizemore will be 28 years old, going into his prime. He's signed for 3 more years at only $21 million. He AVERAGES 25/25 hr's sb's. just about EVERY team in baseball would be in on that sweepstakes with prospects a heck of a lot better than what the Cubs have to offer.
No. The Cubs can't get him.
So, you just ignore the economics of the question and the fact that Sizemore had a considerably down year last year? Yes, in a perfect world, the Indians would NEVER trade Sizemore. But, given 41 million of salary relief (which there are probably only 8 - 10 teams willing/able to give) and the group of prospects we are talking about, I don't see that it is that unreasobable.
You also are the first to mention how overvalued HR/SB are. His OPS last year was .788. He hit .216 vs lefties. Yes, Sizemore has had good years(actually 3 good years, 1 very good year), but last year was not one of them, and he was hurt a few times. Maybe you are slightly over-valuing him.
As I mentioned that Sizemore is signed for dirt cheap over the next 3 years at a combined $21 million...doesn't exactly scream "salary relief!" If you think just because the Cubs would take $10 millon from Wood's contract that CLE would throw in Sizemore...that's more crazy talk.
SB's are overrated unless you're stealing around a 75% clip. Scotty Pods, he should never be allowed to steal! Sizemore, by all means, his last healthy year he was 38 out of 43. BIG difference.
And I've never said HR's are overrated....in some context they very well are, but I've never just flat out said "HR's are overrated".
We can argue all you want, but the answer to your question is still going to be "No, the Cubs can't get Grady Sizemore".
I don't see them trading two of the best prospects in the system. Nor do I see Wood coming back. Letting him go was a solid baseball decision; replacing him with Gregg was not.
I'm hoping the braves decide to shop Vazquez and become interested in Bradley. doubtful it would be a 1 for 1 but Atlanta, on the surface, seems like a place Bradley could thrive as he did in Texas.
This guy won three straight gold gloves from 2005-2007. Did this guy just get fat? Was it injuries? Amazing that this guy could have fallen off a cliff so fast.
As bad as he is - if the cubs could swing Soriano for Wells, I would say let the silliness begin.
Gold gloves are a terrible way to evaluate whether or not a player is good defensively. There are several players every year who undeservedly receive one.
Good-hitting "fielders" often have the edge in Gold Glove voting. DH Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove one year.
I know a lot of undeservings win the gold glove, but this guy was heralded by most of the baseball publications as being one of the very best regardless of his hitting. Truly remarkable that he would now be one of the worst defenders in baseball - probably only 3 years removed from being thought of as truly elite.
Call me naive, but after watching Ricketts' conference and hearing a couple interviews on the radio, I like to think that the days of "silliness" are over. I like to think there is now a sense of accountability that did not exist under Sam "Casper" Zell. And I think I'm right. Not a chance Wells comes here unless Toronto pays 90% of that deal and 100% of Bradley's.