College basketball manifesto 2009

Before we launch into this, I have a Kevin Coble update. Northwestern's senior forward plans to visit another specialist on Monday, which doesn't sound like good news with regards to his injured left foot. If you hear an opinion you like the first time, do you go to another specialist? I'm guessing the Coble family -- and understandably so -- is trying to find a way to rehabilitate his foot without surgery.

Actually, Coble's injury makes for a fitting start to this blog. As everyone knows and understands, the players inside the uniforms change with dizzying swiftness...but the game endures.

College basketball has its official start tonight. If you’re a hoops junkie -- or someone who’s been meaning to look into an addiction to the sport -- then here are a few facts and web sites to help you along.

THE FACTS
There are 347 Division I teams this year. Thirteen of them are still transitioning to the Div. I level, so they’re not eligible for the NCAA Tournament. In addition, Centenary and Savannah State aren’t eligible because they’ve run afoul of the NCAA’s APR requirements.

So we have 332 teams clamoring for the 65 spots in the NCAA Tournament, which means 19.6 percent of the teams will reach the sport’s holy grail. Considering only 10 of the 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams make it to a BCS bowl, I’d say basketball coaches have it pretty good despite their protestations.

MORE NCAA TOURNAMENT TRIVIA
Since the NCAA Tourney began in 1939 as an eight-team invitational held at Patten Gym on Northwestern’s campus, a total of 302 schools have qualified for the tournament. Sixteen of those schools don’t compete at the Div. I level now, so that means 286 of the 332 eligible schools already have been to the NCAA Tournament.

That leaves us with 46 eligible Div. I schools that still seek their first taste of March Madness. As you may have heard a time or two, Northwestern is the only school from a major conference that resides on that list. For those of you who like your underdogs, here’s the complete list:

Alabama State
Alcorn State
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Army
Bethune-Cookman
Buffalo
UC Davis
UC Irvine
UC Riverside
Cal Poly
Chicago State
Citadel
Denver
Elon
Gardner-Webb
Grambling
Hartford
High Point
IPFW
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State (first year of eligibility)
Lipscomb
Longwood
Maine
Maryland-Eastern Shore
UMKC
New Hampshire
New Jersey Institute of Technology (first year of eligibility)
Norfolk
North Florida (first year of eligibility)
Northern Colorado
Northwestern
Quinnipiac
Sacramento State
Sacred Heart
St. Francis (N.Y.)
South Dakota State
Stetson
Stony Brook
Tennessee-Martin
Texas-Pan American
Utah Valley State (first year of eligibility)
Western Illinois
William & Mary
Wofford
Youngstown State

THE WEB SITES

Basketball State: http://www.bbstate.com/
Everything you wanted to know about every aspect in the game. You want to know how many games every referee has worked this season? And which games? And whether he tends to favor the home team with his calls? You want context-adjusted stats? Just a ridiculously informative site.

The Bracket Project: http://bracketproject.50webs.com/
Wondering how your school stacks up in the race to the NCAA Tournament? This site compiles a ton of projected NCAA brackets from all over the internet. Also tells you where the NCAA Tournament sites for this year.

Sagarin ratings: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0910.htm
In my opinion, Jeff Sagarin provides the best power rankings in the business. It takes a little while for the numbers to be statistically significant, but his formula offers a better sense of teams’ worth because he takes margin of victory into account.

Pomeroy rankings: http://kenpom.com/rate.php
Another ratings site that goes a little deeper into adjusted stats. For example, Northwestern is always going to rank among the nation’s best team in points allowed because there are fewer possessions in an NU game. But how effectively is the Wildcats’ defense on a per-possession basis?

Basketball Prospectus: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/
You have to put up with some NBA nonsense on this site as well, but former Big Ten Wonk John Gasaway is one of the primary contributors to this site that’s affiliated with Baseball Prospectus.

Top 25 rankings: http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings
ESPN’s page with the updated Top 25 polls.

That’s enough for now. You want more? We’ll make more.

LW