Cubs don't offer arbitration
It should come as no great shock that the Cubs today declined to offer salary arbitration to free agents Rich Harden, Kevin Gregg, Reed Johnson and Chad Fox. Reports out there also say the White Sox will not offer arbitration to Jermaine Dye, Octavio Dotel and Scott Podsednik.
This does not mean these players cannot re-sign with the Cubs or Sox. It simply means that the former teams will not get draft-pick compensation if another team signs any of these free agents.
It's been pretty clear since the middle of last summer that the Cubs were not going to offer arbitration to Harden, and this has been the subject of much consternation among some followers of the Cubs. Harden, a Type B free agent, made $7 million last year, and it's possible that he and his agent would be seeking $10 million or more in arbitration. Gregg, a Type A free agent, would be in line for a raise from the $4.2 million he made this year.
If the Cubs offered arbitration to either (or to Johnson, who made $3 million), the players would immediately accept, and the Cubs would be on the hook to pay out money they don't have. Of these three, Johnson might be the only one the Cubs would conceivably re-sign after everybody sees how a slow-developing market shakes out.
Let's see how it plays out with Harden. Teams figure to be very cautious about handing out a multiyear deal to a pitcher with a history of shoulder problems and to a guy who had to be held out of starts near the end of the year.
The other question I've been asked is why the Cubs didn't trade Harden to Minnesota after the Twins claimed him on waivers in August. From what I've been told, there would not have been much in the way of prospects coming back, and the Cubs weren't ready to quit on the season at that point.
The Cubs would never come out and say a guy is a medical risk, but when they praise the pitching coach and trainer for getting the player ready to start 26 games, you can pretty much figure there could be trouble ahead. And what would people be saying if Harden were to blow out in spring training with the Cubs having to pay him $10 million to rehab?
Things could be heating up ever so slightly on the Milton Bradley trade front. I don't expect anything before the winter meetings get under way in Indy next week, but maybe we'll have something at the meetings. That would be different.


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So....
IF the Cubs can move Bradley for Burrel, will they turn around deal Burrel? Sounds like they would have to eat around 6 million of the remaining 21 million owed to Bradley. Add that to Burrel's 9 million, and the Cubs are essentially netting 6 million over the long term. Does that make sense? Then you try to add Castillo? Which leaves you with a hole in CF or RF, depending upon what you do with Fukudome.....
Sounds like the Cubs are banking heavily on a rebound year from Soriano, and Soto. A huge contract year from Lee, and Ramirez staying healthy......
Any other cost effective relievers, or outfielders to keep an eye on?
Would they ever consider trading him? Or would they have to eat most of his contract too.
I'm assuming you could pick up a defensive minded right fielder for less then 12 million? This would also open up more money for a possible Granderson trade, plus your not so worried about two lefties. You could look at maybe a Nady?
I'm pretty sure the Cubs would have to eat a LOT of that contract. Guys who have little power, and hit .260 are not a top priority. Not to mention, I'm sure the Cubs would have to take back a bad contract as well.
Fukudome's contract is one of the reasons the Cubs are in the position that they are. That's what happens when your GM runs around with a blank checkbook.
I'm pretty sure the Cubs would have to eat a LOT of that contract. Guys who have little power, and hit .260 are not a top priority. Not to mention, I'm sure the Cubs would have to take back a bad contract as well.
Fukudome's contract is one of the reasons the Cubs are in the position that they are. That's what happens when your GM runs around with a blank checkbook.
that his contract was of course back loaded, so he's got $26.5 left over two year plus who knows how much all those perks cost!!!
Kosuke Fukudome of
4 years/$48M (2008-11)
* 4 years/$48M (2008-11)
o signed by Cubs as a free agent from Japan 12/12/07
o $4M signing bonus
o 08:$6M, 09:$11.5M, 10:$13M, 11:$13.5M
o no-trade protection
o club must sign Fukudome to an extension by 11/15/2011 or release him, allowing him to become a free agent
o award bonuses: $0.3M each for MVP, WS MVP, $0.2M for LCS MVP, $0.1M Silver Slugger, $75,000 each for Gold Glove, All Star
o perks: 8 first-class round-trip air tickets between Japan and Chicago for family each year, personal trainer, masseuse, interpreter, visa expenses, $25,000 annually in moving expenses, vehicle during spring training and regular season
o Fukudome to make annual donation to club charity
* agent: Joe Urbon
* ML service: 1.000
I'm just not a huge Fukedome fan. You could probably sign Randy Winn for cheap and get the same production. Plus, he is a switch hitter.
The Cubs have liked Burrell, but the problem is where to play him. Their preferred option is to move Fukudome back to right field. They could conceivably trade for Burrell and "flip" him to another team. Once they get out from under Bradley's deal, they can pursue a center fielder such as Cameron or Byrd. That's how it looks as of today anyway. On Granderson, they are not going to give up Castro for him. Those rumors appear right now to be wishful thinking on some media members' parts.
Byrd is the top choice with the connection to the new hitting coach?
I hear you on Granderson. I'm sure the hot stove will be heating up this weekend. Enjoy the drive down I-65.
what about Vitters? Is he as untouchable as Castro?
I would not think he's as untouchable as Castro.
Don't be surprised if this were to happen if the Cubs ended up with Luis Castillo. Granderson only gets $5.5 million in 2010.
in my eyes, if the Cubs end up with Luis Castillo and Curtis Granderson, and move Bradley. I still think we would be 1 starter short though. I really feel like the Cubs need a guy like Joel Pineiro who can go deep in games with low pitch counts and rack up 200 innings. Got to love a major ground ball pitcher in Wrigley too.
Not the groundball pitcher, but speculation is that the Braves will look to trade Javier Vazquez for an impact bat. He's a horse, 200+ innings in the last nine of ten seasons and averaged 6.84IP per start this year. Very solid SO/IP and SO/BB ratios, and he's set to earn $11.5 next year in the final year of his contract. I wonder what the Braves would want in return and if there was any way they would consider Bradley and cash as part of a package.
MLBtraderumors is reporting that the Cubs and Cardinals are in the lead to acquire FA Vicente Padilla. That's one contest I sincerely hope the Cardinals win. He's horrible and if I'm not mistaken, said to be another poor clubhouse guy. Hendry hasn't even gotten rid of Bradley yet and he's thinking about adding some more cancer to the mix? He can't afford to keep Harden but would consider Padilla? Please say it isn't so Bruce.
Not a shred of truth to it. Cubs haven't even thought about him.
...now I can go and get some sleep.
Many consider Josh Donaldson the jewel of the Harden trade. (that came out in the wrong place)
Thanks a lot for answering the question about trading Harden to Minnesota Bruce.
in that, he probably was the key figure. Now, the trade couldn't have happened without Gallagher, but it probably couldn't have happened without Donaldson as well. What Beane needed to do was to find young power. He couldn't keep going back to 1 year vets. So he started accumulating some power prospects, and Donaldson was one of the more intriguing ones in our system at the time, as Vitters wasn't going to get moved.
Meant to ask it earlier, but are we still, roughly, looking at the low 140's as the limit for Hendry?
$143 million to $145 million, tops.
that once arbitration is NOT offered, negotiations can't take place until May?
If offered and accepted, I don't believe this is the same as signing a free agent and then not being able to trade him until June 15....but I can't find anything. I'm pretty sure he could be trade bait though, as I believe this is what Toronto is doing with Marco Scutaro this season.
During the 2002 collective bargaining agreement, that old rule went out the book. Thank Andy MacPhail for that. He told the union they were dumb for eliminating a possible team for one of their players, and they saw the light. I still remember Tim Raines coming back on May 1 for the Expos and getting about 4 hits.
You mentioned In your story that the Twins were offering low-level prospects for Harden when they claimed him on waivers. I'm just wondering why Hendry can never get value for anyone in a trade, other than acquiring players from teams dumping salary.
A few years back he received Dodger castoff Cesar Izturis for Greg Maddux, where if he was a smart GM, he could have played the Dodgers against the Padres for him and received a top notch prospect, instead of a player the Dodgers were trying to dump.
Look at Kenny Williams. He got a Matt Thornton a few years ago for Joe Borchard where I bet you can't even name the two players the Cubs received for Corey Patterson, who was a far better player than Borchard.
Some guys make lemonade out of lemons. Hendry makes hash out of prime meat.
The Cubs got Nate Spears and Carlos Perez for Patterson. It's a mixed bag. The Twins weren't about to give up top prospects for a guy they might have for a month. The Cubs got Harden for a lot less than it would have taken had he been totally healthy with Oakland.
Hendry got Kyler Burke for Michael Barrett. Burke was the Cubs' minor league player of the year this year. We'll see how he pans out. They got three well-regarded prospects for Mark DeRosa. The obtained Jose Ceda from the Padres for Todd Walker, only to trade Ceda to Florida for Kevin Gregg. Ceda looked pretty good until he put on way too much weight. They picked up cacher Chris Robinson for Neifi Perez. Reports are mixed on Robinson. We'll see how Brian Schlitter turns out. He pitched this fall. The Cubs got him for Scott Eyre, and Schlitter seems to be moving up. Justin Berg came for Matt Lawton.
The Maddux trade was a dud, but you don't know what other teams are offering.
Great work Bruce.
I think a lot of people want to pin the Harden decision solely on a medical issue, but it is both a medical and financial issue. The Cubs are simply up against their payroll. Best case speculation, as you and others have noted, puts it in the low 140's. Right now, depending on some arbitration cases, the Cubs look to be in the mid-upper 130's.
Harden probably would've accepted arbitration. There was a speculative guess out there about 6 mil per year on the open market (I think it was tied with the Mariners), and he would've easily topped that in arbitration. Add in that, he wants to rebuild his value, and that he liked being here. Would Harden have been worth his arbitration figure? I know there's one school of argument that goes that his average WAR from 03-09 indicates that he would be a bargain, but I think that's a bit flawed in Harden's case due to the fluctuations in his WAR, which reflects upon his medical history.
By itself, I would've loved to have Harden back. I mean, he had a solid 2009. His xFIP was a healthy 3.70. His 2008 .229 BABIP with us was unsustainable. I think there was enough reason to think he could've had a good year in 2010 with the Cubs. But if he accepted arbitration, the Cubs would be over their budget (or right at it) and be unable to make any other moves the rest of the offseason unless they get lucky in a Milton Bradley deal (unlikely) or they made another move (and created another hole). It just didn't make sense to go down this route. It reminds me of the year Greg Maddux accepted arbitration, forcing the Braves to trade Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada, which they fully acknowledged wasn't enough value but that they had to make the move because they were backed into a corner. Harden is potentially better than some of the arms in our rotation, but he was also a luxury.
For those folks that are arguing that Harden could be traded, I'm actually not sure that's the case. I'm fairly certain recently signed players can't be dealt until June 15th. Even if I am off on the trade rule (and I don't think I'm off on the trade rule, because last year, when several Type A's couldn't find a job, they were talking about the player's union potentially waiving the trade rule to help those guys), early indications suggest that Harden's market value is probably less than what he'd get in arbitration. When you take that into consideration, then we'd likely have to eat some money in a hypothetical trade, while likely not getting value.
Sure, I would've rather had Harden, signed a cheap CF to platoon with Fuld, and let John Grabow go, but that wasn't going to happen. I might even be okay with the idea of Fuld and Harden vs. Marshall/Shark/Gorzelanny (and so forth) along with FA CF (I'm getting skeptical of the Granderson idea ... the Tigers were asking for a lot from the Mariners for Edwin Jackson, which might suggest that they aren't in a firesale mode). That wasn't going to happen either.
At the end of the day, this was the right move, whether it was for financial or medical reasons. Maybe Harden doesn't find a good job out there (it's possible, a lot of banged up arms) and we can get him back for cheap. If not, I'm fine taking a gamble for 1 or 2 million on someone like Chien-Ming Wang or another arm out there.
"For those folks that are arguing that Harden could be traded, I'm actually not sure that's the case. I'm fairly certain recently signed players can't be dealt until June 15th."
My understanding was that the June 15th deadline was for players signed as free agents, not for players signed to contracts through the arbitration process. Do you know if a team can trade a player they re-sign via arbitration or an offer to avoid arbitration?
Article XX (B)(6)(a): "Any Club signing a contract after the expiration of the election period with a Player under this Section B may not assign his contract until after the next June 15. However, notwithstanding the foregoing, such contract may be assigned for other Player contracts and/or cash consideration of $50,000 or less prior to the next June 16 if the Player gives written consent to such transaction."
In case you're wondering, "assign his contract" is contract-speak for "trade". It applies to all cases where a club assigns its rights under the contract to another club, but a trade is the usual one affecting a player who just qualified for Article XX free agency. That said, the "cash consideration of $50,000 or less" also allows for waiving a player: the standard waiver price is $20,000.
Anyway, this clause does not distinguish *how* the player was signed: it applies whether the player was signed as a free agent in November or went to arbitration in February.
Note that this includes John Grabow. He did not sign until the day after the election period ended; so even if his new contract does not contain any other no-trade agreement, the Cubs cannot trade him without his consent before June 16.
I appreciate it, toonsterwu. Harden's situation is a tricky one because of the numbers and the projections. Bill James projects a 3.67 FIP for next year. Harden's BABIP with the Cubs in '08 was ridiculously low, and it evened out to about the league norm this year. As I've said, the real wild card here is the medical situation. If it had been better in the first place, the Cubs would have had to give up more than Patterson, Murton and Gallagher to get him from Oakland. The Cubs aren't going to bury a player publicly, but I've got to believe they're very concerned about the shoulder. The end-of-season shutdown also seemed to signal a red flag.