Fishing for Marlon
The Internet was atwitter today, no pun intended, about the Cubs allegedly intensifying their pursuit of outfielder Marlon Byrd, the free agent from the Texas Rangers. That speculation seemed only natural, with Mike Cameron off the board. As an aside, I think my friends at foxsports.com will be facing serious thumb issues later in life for all the quality time they spend with their BlackBerrys.
Here's what I know: The Cubs like Byrd, but they haven't moved significantly down any road with him (or any outfielder) yet. I see there's been mixed reaction on this blog to the possibility of Byrd in the Cubs' outfield for next year and possibly one or two beyond.
One factor not to forget is the Rudy Jaramillo factor. Jaramillo is the Cubs' new hitting coach, and Byrd enjoyed two good years under Rudy with the Rangers. Would you call 2009 or 2008 a career year for Byrd? Let's look at the numbers:
2009: .283/.329/.479 for an OPS of .808. His OPS-plus was 106, and he had 20 homers and 89 RBI.
2008: .298/.380/.462 for an OPS of .842. Byrd's OPS-plus in '08 was 121, and he had 10 homers and 53 RBI.
His BABIP went from .330 in 2008 to .308 this year, suggesting normal correction. His ISO went up from .164 in '08 to .196 this year, reflecting the greater difference between slugging percentage and batting average. Byrd had 98 strikeouts and 32 walks this year, compared with 62 strikeouts and 46 walks in 2008. The wOBA this year was .345; it was .380 in 2008. Byrd's VORP (Baseball Prospectus) of 27.7 ranked him 81st in baseball, just behind Rangers teammate Ian Kinsler, who was 67th, at 33.5. Byrd's WAR (fangraphs.com) was 2.4.
Byrd is a right-handed batter who performed better against right-handed pitching. His line against righties was .300/.344/.491 compared with .244/.293/.451 against lefties. He hit 13 of his 20 homers against right-handers.
Byrd's batting average dipped in both June and July (the heat in Arlington?), but he rebounded over the final two months.
Defensively, he grades out OK.
For 2010, Bill James projects a line of .279/.340/.438 for an OPS of .778. James projects 14 homers and 64 RBI.
This is one guy who is hard to get a handle on. Byrd is 32. Has he peaked, or does he have a couple good years left in him? It's hard to preach patience with Cubs fans on any topic, especially when the rest of the baseball world (including the Cubs' Chicago neighbors) are busy getting better for 2010. Even though the Cubs insist they can make moves independent of trading you-know-who in right field, things look stymied at this point.
Bruce,
Any chance that the Cubs go with a RF platoon of Fukudome and Bradley and still sign a Centerfielder? Given that Bradley crushed lefties, and Fukudome was pretty good against righties, seems like a good match, then maybe they can rehab Bradley's production and image and trade him at the deadline for something of value.
Cubs look desperate right now and that is a sure sign of a bad deal getting ready to happen. I personally would rather keep him, at least temporarily.
That's almost $28 million platooning in right field.....
It might not be until February, but Milton Bradley is done as a Cub.
Given Bruce's dim outlook of how the Cubs will be in 2010 (if nothing drastic happens) from his previous comment above it looks like, minus character issues, the Cubs will be better off with Bradley in Right and Fukudome in Center.
What's with the Cubs and 3 year contracts? I believe Hendry got one and he's been handing them out to others (and longer ones) like candy, as well, whenever he signs someone.... and now Santo of all people got one.
Bruce - any word on who else is in on Byrd? Is Hendry bidding against himself again or are there other real suitors?
I have no idea who is in on Byrd. I don't know if anything really has developed. There is no bidding war as far as the Cubs are concerned at this moment because they haven't made any offers.
Jon Paul Morosi says the markets for Cameron and Marlon Byrd are running parallel, with the Braves, Angels, Cubs, Yankees, Mariners, Mets and Giants checking in on both
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/market-for-mike-cameron.html
Some of those teams seemingly don't make much sense and the Red Sox aren't in there either but that's the latest I've read
OK, so right now, the CF options are Byrd, Ankiel, Crisp, or in house. Of those options, I would pick Ankiel and sign Johnson to platoon with him. I think it is tbe best upside play, but it all depends upon the asking price of Ankiel. I would not give him (or anyone else) more than 2 years, preferabbly 1 year with an option.
I might also consider Johnny Damon on a 1 year deal, if the price was not too high. No where on earth is he going to get the money he would get with the Yankees.
I don't know why the Cubs can't make a deal for another teams outfield prospect, like the A's did with Michael Taylor, prospect for prospect.
My prediction, Cubs end up trading Bradley to the Angels for Gary Matthews Jr, and Hendry prays hard that Matthews performs better with regular playing time.
I could live with a platoon of Ankiel and Johnson if they both sign 1-year deals. Ankiel had a poor season due to injury so if he can return to his 2008 performance this platoon could work. It would also allow the Cubs to change direction in 2011 depending on the free agent market for CFs.
One player you didn't mention in your post is Scottie Pods. Now that Pierre in on the South Side Pods is looking for somewhere to land. I hope Hendry is smart enough to avoid this. Pods is a below average fielder in LF and is brutal in CF. Balls would be dropping all over the place with Sori in LF and Pods in CF.
I have a huge problem with Hendry/Cubs/Illuminati/whoever you blame/Kenney giving out too many years on these contracts. That compounds one mistake, a bad signing, with another and cripples the roster flexibility. Soriano, Fukudome, Zambrano, Bradley and maybe Dempster were all signed for not only too much money, but for too many years.
If you are going to sign Byrd, which I don't agree with, don't give him a 3-year deal.
I could get back into this team if I actually felt there was light at the end of the tunnel, but like you said we are stuck with this roster of overpaid, over the hill, underachieving losers for the next 5 years. Who on this team other than maybe Dempster that you really want to pull for? Soriano? Bradley? Ramirez? Z? The pot smoker?
What will signing Marlon Byrd solve? Hendry will outbid himself and lock of even more of Rickett's self imposed cap next year.
wouldn't you pull for Soriano? What has he done to you? D. Lee? Aram? Theriot? Lilly? Marmol? Fukudome? Zambrano?
Why would you NOT pull for them? Are you hoping they make outs when they go up there or walk batters? Did Marmol's year last year make you happy?
The misconception about Soriano is that he's somehow a bad guy. That's about as far from the truth as possible. His teammates like him, and he treats the media well. The guy wants to play. I'd have to think that Lilly, Koyie Hill, Theriot, Ramirez, Lee, Dempster, Wells, Marmol, Marshall, Baker, Fuld and others I'm forgetting would be pretty easy to cheer for.
Bruce you know these guys better than any of us and I would love to grab a beer with you some day to hear some off the record stories. I love baseball but after 40 years of following this sad sack team I have better things to do with my free time. Call me whatever you want but other fans I have talked to feel the same way.
Not his fault for stealing the Cub's money, but when Soriano is paid to be an elite player and ends up with a lower OPS than Bobby Scales I can't pull for the guy.
Carlos Marmol is lucky he isn't in jail after stabbing another player with a fork.
Lee is a jerk to the kids every time I have seen him in Mesa but maybe he was just having a bad day for 3 days in a row.
Jeb-jeb--
I agree to a certain extent. I don't know or have seen any of these guys live, because I haven't been to Wrigley since 2008 to see a Cubs game. So I can't comment on their interactions with fans.
Glad to see somebody else is about as fed up as I am with this team. It's maddening. For the 6 month investment of time, the Cubs have done little to inspire me to watch them or waste money on them. This team is headed for a sub .500 record, with an aging team baring a frenzy of trades. How are they better then last year? Hoping for guys to rebound, who are aging is about as moronic as it gets.
This isn't the 2004 Cubs full of @ssholes, and a manager trying to drum up a "us vs the world" mentality. However, I have lost a LOT of respect for this group afer they imploded in all 6 playoff games they have played. That's a lack of mental strength.
Out of that group that you listed, I am 100% on board regarding Big Z. This guy should drive everyone on this blog insane. Has the talent to win 20 games a year, but is so mentally weak he can't get his stuff together.
Way too many question marks to expect anything out of this group.
Hopefully the Hawks are still playing in June so we don't have to pay attention to what the Cubs are doing. Last year the Hawks were so captivating in the playoffs that I didn't even watch more then a inning here or there until the Hawks were finished. Needless to say I wasn't missing anything.
Stabbing another player with a fork? Care to elaborate / link?
So if soriano runs into a burning bldg and saves 14 lives but hits 190 next year you can't pull for him?
Is that how he hurt his knee?
I want to thank all you guys that made comments on Marlon Byrd, your all right on.
2-3 year contract he'll want will stymie Cubs for years. As a loyal Cub fan, I see the
White Sox winning their division, with speed, defense, and PITCHING.
Bruce, do you know if the Cubs have any interest in Coco Crisp? He might be willing to sign a 1-year deal to rebuild his value after shoulder surgery cut short his season with KC last year. I'd rather see the Cubs spend $3M or so on Crisp for 1 year than $18-21M on Bryd for 3.
That's what I've been told, but as more names go off the board, everybody becomes a more viable option.
Bruce:
It's obvious that the Cubs don't think much of Sam Fuld. What's wrong with a platoon of him and another young (cheap) player? I agree w/Boozer. If we are going to make a mistake on a player, let's make it with one of our own, and one that won't cost as much. If need be, you buy someone in July when many teams are "selling". Koske & Fuld would at least save the pitchers some stress.
Also, that would allow you to spend more money elsewhere.
I don't know that the Cubs don't think much of him. He has a grand total of 124 plate appearances. James projects him at .261/.346/.357 with 1 homer and an ISO of .096. At this point, he might be best served as a backup and let's see how he does in that role. I don't know that there's anything in his history that suggests he's going to be an offensive force.
Byrd is not an upgrade. Why bother? Chews up money and roster flexibility. Why did Hendry and Lou back themselves into a corner with Bradley. They annouce they are getting rid of him and expect to get some value in return. Nice strategy. Everyone knows they wait and get him for nothing. These guys are professional. His numbers were not bad after a horrible start. Suck it up. Figure out how to get along. Kids can do it, why not baseball players.
Bruce, why are the Cubs not in the mix for Uggla? He is a very good hitter and it replaces a dead spot in the line up, 2B. Who cares if he is a lousy fielder...he will fit right in.
Uggla will get a big raise this winter, either in arbitration or in a pre-hearing settlement. It's way more than the Cubs can pay.
IMO It's not that it's more than the Cubs can pay. It's that it's more than they want to pay. They have the revenue increases to cover it.
dhbdad
when the Ricketts family purchased the Cubs, they took on a lot of debt to do so.
That's why I wouldn't be so quick to pencil in any additional revenue to the payroll side of the ledger. It might be needed for the debt payments.
What about a flier on Rocco? I would rather not get caught up in another long-term contract...why not take a flier on a couple of cheaper guys...Rocco, Hairston Jr.(could be a super utility guy). I'm just not sold on giving Byrd a 3 year contract. I would like to see us get a couple guys in on a 1 year contract. Let see how everything plays out with ownership and the GM.
or how about a trade for Brett Gardner or Melky? If the Yankees sign Damon back they will have a pretty full OF.
I asked about Baldelli at the winter meetings and blogged it. They told me they were doing their homework on him and not much more. He's not a priority right now, but that could always change.
Hey Bruce,
How have we improved over the last two years? After, all the moves are made this year are we going to be any better then 2008 or worse? Are pitching staff will not be as strong without Harden, bullpen is not as strong as Wood/Marmol, even if we add Byrd he will give us no better numbers then Edmonds did. Plus, you won't have a DeRosa in the line-up!!!
All we have done over the last two years is get older! What have we done to improve this team???
Normally, I'd say you don't have to be as good as 2008. You just have to be the best relative to your competition in 2010 or whatever year you're in. But with three starting pitchers right now (Z, Demp, Wells), no CF and questions as to whether your catcher is as good as he looked in 2007-08 or as bad as he looked in 2009 and a LF coming off knee surgery, I don't think much of this team today. I don't know that DeRosa would make that much of a difference now. He's going to be 35 and coming off surgery. He's not a second baseman, as neither the Indians nor Cardinals wanted to play him there. They have much bigger problems than that right now.
Thanks for the thoughts, Bruce. I completely agree with only needing to be better then your competition. It is just upsets me that we are going to have the 3rd(could be wrong) highest payroll and still have so many question marks. It just doesn't seem like good baseball teams have that many holes...the Angels seem to reload every year...even Kenny Williams seems to manage his payroll so that there are always expiring contracts(doesn't handcuff himself). Plus, he doesn't become attached to players...he will trade them if it is in the best interest of the club.
I know it's hard to project and believe me I hope we are doing well at the break. However, if things are going really bad do you think it would be time to start thinking about a complete retool. I mean trading Lilly, D-Lee(if he okays it), Ramirez(if he approves it), Big Z, or Dempster? Maybe multiple to reload your system and start fresh.
Mark it down. THis Cubs team is starting to mirror the late 90s or early 00s Mets teams. Those teams had aging veterans, who kept hanging on after their run to the WS. Cubs window to win with this group is over, and now you are stuck with aging guys making tons of money and keeping you from signing valuable players.
If you held a gun to my head and said "who will produce like they should" I might be dead.....
Think about it:
Catcher--Soto of 08 or 09? Polar opposite years
1st base---Lee of 08 or 09? IS his power back?
2nd base---what a nightmare position. Should be Theriot
Short stop---Theriot---might be the safest bet, but he always wears down
LF---Soriano coming off knee surgery, and getting older......
CF---Vacant
RF---Fukudome---I guess you can pencil in .250-.260. Worst contract in Cubs history for what he's getting paid in terms of dollars, and what you get back for your investment. Dave Smith, Mel Rojas, Danny Jackson were bad. This is god awful.
Pitchers??? Wells? Can he duplicate last year? Dempster? Was 2008 a mirage for money? Lilly? Shoulder surgery. Zambrano? I would rather be tortured then guess what this goof will do.
So somebody with gleaming optimism about this upcoming year, help me understand, because I don't see it.
I completely agree about the mid season retool if the this team is not capable of advancing in the playoffs. I was thinking the other day about what we could get now for ARam, DLee and the disappointing Zambrano.
I'd rather have the hope of young talented team competing in the next 2-3 years than a mediocre team than doesn't have a legit chance at a WS this year.
dhbdad
You can't let A-Ram or Z get traded if the situation arises. Think of how expensive (although Big Z's contract blows) a good pitcher and third baseman will be and how the Cubs don't have anyone in their system to replace them.
Lee and Lilly are probably the only trade deadline candidates this year since they are FA's in 2011. Everyone else is probably getting paid too much for another team to take on. A-Ram, Z, Dempster, Fukudome and Soriano are going to be around for at least this season and half of next.
A-Ram has a player option at the end of the year. He opted out once and most likely will do it again. He might be able get another big contract with a contender.(if he deems that the Cubs are going in the wrong direction)
You should be able to get a young on the verge 3B in return for one of those players.
I forgot about that. Still, I think they hold onto him and try to either re-sign him or at least get the certain draft pick out of it.
Everyone should stop posting comments about how the Cubs success will determine whether A-Ram opts out of his contract. It will be a purely monetary decision based on whether he can do better than $15M a year as a free agent. He opted out of his contract after 2006 becuase he knew he would easily top the $11 million guaranteed already, it had nothing to do with the Cubs winning less than 70 games in 2006.
So if you want to predict what Aramis will do next off-season, look at two things: the contracts signed by Holliday and Bay this off-season, and how many HR's and RBI's he has in 2010. There is no mystery beyond that.
Took 15-20 million less to return to the Cubs the last time. So it might have some to do with the success. He will definitely be able to make more guaranteed money if he opts out.
"It was a situation, obviously, where I think at the end of the day, the player did want to be here," Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said Sunday. "It's not much of a secret, the figures that were being bantered around would've been much higher.
Also, I think they signed Soriano which made him want to comeback.
They signed Soriano after Ramirez resigned. And by my count, Hendry has said every player that has resigned with the Cubs has done so for less money. Ask Bruce if that is not the case?
He doesn't even have to do better than $15 mil a year. So long as he can get another multi year deal. 4 years at $12 million per year might be more attractive to him than a 1 year $15 million deal and THEN trying to hit the market a year older.
Could this offseason be the final nails in Jim's coffin? Given his mostly unsuccessful forays into spending as the payroll has ballooned and his apparent inability to use creative trades and under-the-radar signings to bring the team to that next level. Yes, he won two straight divisions and I'm ungrateful. But I'm tired of him needing to throw money at problems. I think good GMs are able to make money-neutral and other creative trades to plug holes and solve problems without exploding the payroll. Take a look across town to Ken Williams who just surrendered two fringe prospects for a proven lead-off hitter at a 60% clearance sale.
I think the Bill James projection is dead on for Byrd. But I think Sam Fuld can play better D in CF, not produce as much offensively, but have a better OBP. May as well stick with him at this point and see if Reed comes back cheap; not waste money on an all around average player in Byrd. There's just no upside IMO.
Cameron was the way to go. Hendry missed it and he knows it. Unless there's someone out there that hasn't been made public, may as well stay in house.
Why do you feel Cameron was the way to go? He's a few years older than Byrd and is a career .250 hitter with a career OPS of .788. He also struggles against RHP, something the Cubs don't need more of in their lineup. Over the past three seasons, he hit .233 with a .734 OPS versus righties. And he got what, $15.5M for two years? Do you really think it would have been a good idea to top that offer?
His defense is reason enough to get him. Throw in the fact that he can actually put up an 800 OPS, that's gravy.
Boston knows the value of defense. Once Bay was out, they wasted no time going to the next best thing in Cameron which, when you factor in defense, has actually been worth MORE than Jason Bay has been over the last two years
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/bay-vs-cameron
I'm indifferent. Sounds like just another Burnitz or Jacque Jones.
Is there any thing in the collective bargining agreement that would prohibit the cubs from sending Milton down to the minors? Sending him to "A" ball as an example instead of outright releasing him might make him"Retire" and therefore null and void his contract. I realize they dont want to eat 21million so if they cant trade him maybe they can make him quit.
Bradley would have to be put on waivers. If another team claims him, they'd pay him the major-league minimum with the Cubs being on the hook for the rest of the $21 million.