Big Z staying put
There's no place like home for the holidays, and that's where I'll be the next couple of weeks as I use up my remaining vacation time. But I will be checking in from time to time. We better clear the decks anyway since that last blog is getting a little lengthy, as much fun as it's been.
Anyway, I've talked with a few people about the New York Post story that had the Yankees interested in Carlos Zambrano. One Cubs guy said something to the effect of "the price is too high for the Yankees even though we've never talked."
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/auld_lang_sign_lnyUGytHfw1E9U0jIM...
For the record, Z's agent, Barry Praver (who is always accessible), sent me an e-mail saying: "Jim (Cubs GM Hendry) has not approached us about Carlos waiving the no-trade provision of his contract nor is Carlos interested in waiving it."
As you know, teams can talk about and ask about and dream about players all day long, but that doesn't mean there is a trade happening. Such is the case here. And as you further know, I think it would be a huge mistake to trade Zambrano. He is his own worst enemy at times, but the Cubs are better off with him than without him. As of now, the rotation has three sure things: Z, Dempster and Randy Wells. Carlos Silva now is in the mix as are Jeff Samardzija and Tom Gorzelanny. Take Z out of that mix and you've really got a potential mess on your hands.
Happy holidays and Merry Christmas to all. Thanks for making the blog so much fun. Some of my faves from 2009:
--Ice skating with Ryan Dempster Saturday at the new rink at Wrigley. Demp took time out to talk with my daughters along with every kid who came by. Demp threw out a "first pitch" to Stan Mikita to open the rink. Owner Tom Ricketts wanted a "nice slow pitch." And Demp was on ice skates when he delivered the pitch to good old No. 21 of the Hawks.
--Watching Derrek Lee have the great year he had.
--Talking with Koyie Hill every day. Koyie is a guy who knows all the reporters' names and uses them. It was great to see him put in a full year in the big leagues.
--Watching Ted Lilly compete.
--Watching Aramis Ramirez hit. You don't think the Cubs missed this guy?.
--Talking with Big Z. You never know what he's going to say.
--Dealing with the Cubs' media-relations staff. They run a nice operation and provide help at a moment's notice. Kudos to Peter, Jason, Dani and the rest.
--Working with baseball ops. Jim Hendry takes his fair share of criticism here and elsewhere, but he's always accessible. His staff of Randy Bush, Chuck Wasserstrom and the crew always help me look before I leap in print. Sometimes I listen.
--Interviewing Milton Bradley in St. Louis. 'Nuf said.
--Eating dinner at Vito's in Mesa during spring training.
--Talking ball with Pat, Ron, Len and Bob.
--Seeing Alfonso Soriano's smile.
--Watching Carlos Marmol, when he's in the strike zone.
--Blogging.
Just read that the Yankees are interested in Reed Johnson, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to Bruce and all you guys.
Ernie Banks- The Cubs will shine in 2009 ? ah 2010 opps !
I had my doubts, Cubs probably didn't try too hard. Can't blame him, if he does good, and
the economy improves he may be able to get more money.
Don't see Byrd signing here either. Looks like Reed Johnson, and perhaps Pie and
possibly Baldelli.
Pie??
Capps signed for just one year for $3.5M. I have to wonder if Hendry offered a multiyear contract. They couldn't beat the Nationals out for a guy who would fit perfectly? They may have given him an incentive for saves for all I know right now, but Hendry could have offered incentives for both holds and saves, along with an extra year or two.
Fernando Rodney, a much worse pitcher, just got 2 years $11 million. Why? Because he's got 37 $aves.
Capps had a bad year so his price is low. If you had to choose between a 1 year deal where you're going to get $aves or a 2 year, low dollar figure with no $ave opportunites, you choose the gig with $ave potential and then go back on the market next season for that Rodney deal.
You make a good point, but then some players like the guarantee and security of a multi-year contract. The Cubs could have offered a one-year deal if that is what Capps preferred. My point was that even though his save opportunities would be limited to days when Marmol wasn't available, unless Marmol struggles again and Capps takes his place, his contract could have been structured to provide incentives for both holds and saves.
If he would have signed with the Cubs and had few save chances but still had a good year with lots of holds and a WHIP very close to 1.00, and if I'm a GM, I'd be willing to offer him a better contract than I would a guy who was his team's closer in 2009 but had a relatively high amount of blown saves and a higher WHIP.
It's not the incentives he's thinking about, it's the base salary for 2011 that he's thinking about.
2010 hypothetical stats:
Player A: 35 saves, 4.50 ERA, 60 innings
Player B: 5 saves, 2.50 ERA, 60 innings
2011 salary: Player A >>>>> Player B
There is almost NO scenario where Capps would set himself up for a better 2011 contract if he were to have come to the Cubs.
respectively disagree. If it's all about what sort of contract Capps would get for 2011, or 2012 for that matter, Hendry could have offered him a two or three year deal. He's done that several times in the past. With Lee and Lilly in the final year of their contracts in 2010 and Fukudome in his last year in 2011, he would have had extra payroll to increase a salary for Capps. Could have given him $3.5M for 2010, $5.5M for 2011, and 6.5M for 2012 plus incentives for holds, saves, and WHIP. Forget the ERA, it's meaningless for relievers.
Sounds like he just signed with the Nationals. We can check him off the list.
What's the plan, Jim???
I've already unloaded three of my mistakes, Heilman, Miles and obviously got rid of Bradley. I did lose Jake Fox in the Miles deal, but got back some cash in the Bradley deal. I claimed a superb pitching prospect from St.Louis in the rule five draft (obviously he struggled in the minors but we've had our scouts watching him some and obviously feel he could contribute for us this year. So obviously, we saved some money in the Miles, Heilman, and Bradley deals and were able to use part of that to bring back Grabow. I was able to bring him back for $7.5M for two years and feel he can be our closer if anything happens with Marmol. Obviously, I love those two and three year contracts for relievers and always give out at least four years to position players with no-trade clauses so we'll be sure they won't go anywhere else if they fail to live up to expectations.
I also didn't offer arbitration to Rich Harden so we won't get a draft pick in return. It was just too big of a risk and we are already set in our starting pitching with Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells and either Gorzellany, Marshall or Samardzija.
Obviously, we are pretty set with position players. We expect Fontenot will bounce back and he can share time at 2B with Baker whom we plan to sign very soon. We can move Fukudome to RF and bring back Gathright to play CF. He has the speed to give us not only fill our CF vacancy but also give us a leadoff hitter.
We also plan on bringing back Neifi Perez for a veteran presence in the middle infield. Lou will make out the lineups obviously, but Perez could be a starter at either 2B or SS. As long as we stay healthy, we obviously feel we can contend in the NL Central and have a chance to get back to the post season.
Jim Hendry
so is Silva the new patton? another year with a 24 man roster. i was a Pie fan and you're all right, he wasn't given a chance. having said that he was given a chance in baltimore before he became a platoon player. Hendry liked him, it was Lou who wanted a veteran/s. so another year of old 2nd hand players.
Bruce,
Any word or rumor on how the meeting went?
Has anyone read or heard anything?
From what I hear, some hurt feelings were soothed and Mesa may again look into building those covered batting cages that were a bone of contention.
Sorry for the delay; been breaking up ice from my driveway!
Not to worry on the delay, I figured no news is good news.
I am pulling for Mesa to retain the Cubs for their Spring Training location, been their many of times (Easy drive for me). Being as nostalgic as the Ricketts family has been, I can't see their first major splash being a move of the Cubs Spring Training facility to Florida. But money does trump most everything else in business so I guess we will all find out in January.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
I'm not sure if they will get him back. I have not read that anywhere. However, I do know that they should have kept him...there was no major upgrade from Pie to Gathright. Pie was always a solid fielder with more offensive upside. The problem that I see with this is that Pinella didn't like Pie...and as we have seen with others(Wuertz, Eyre)...when Pinella doesn't want you...you go away.
does intrigue me.
Although it does seem a little silly to trade back for him, it does appear he may have straightened himself out a bit in Baltimore. The question is what do we resonably need from a CF? Defense obviously and that he can do. So offensively what do we need and what are the trade offs vs. the FA's out there? His OBP last year was .326, Byrd .340, Ankiel .285. OPS was .763, Byrd .808, Ankiel .672. Extra base hits; Pie 22/281 AB, Byrd 65/547 AB, Ankiel 33/372 AB.
Basically he projects (on a very limited sample...last year only vs. career) to be better than Ankiel and worse than Byrd. He's a hell of a lot faster than either and maybe with Rudy J as the "King of all Hitting Instructors" we can get a little more out of him. The main thing is he will be much cheaper and under control for at least 2-3 more years.
As long as he doesn't envision himself as a power hitter first I think it would be reasonable to think a line of .275 BA/.345 OBP/12 HR/ 65 R in around 500 AB's in either the 1, 2, or 8 holes. If you get that out of him you get a better defender who replaces Bradley's numbers for a lot less and without the attitude. Also, not that it matters much but I've always heard he was a good teammate where ever he's been.
Then again, I could be completely wrong.
Riggs, I'm sorry todays Chicago Trib sports page.
Read it on the Chicago Tribune sports page, and some time ago, I read that McPhail was thinking of trading him.
Want him or not, the Cubs may reaguire Felix Pie, and also re sgin Reed Johnson.
Who Baltimore would get back is not known.
Also, the Cubs may go after DeJesus from the Royals. Also unknown is what the Royals
would want back, perhaps Marshall and a position player from 40 man roster or minors.
Byrd may sign up with the Giants, Yankees, Braves, Tigers or Angels, on what I read.
What was your favorite moment of the Felix Pie era?
Look, he was told to fix his swing, and use the speed he has, which he wouldn't/couldnt' do. He's a very good defensive player, but for how many years before he even came up did we hear about how great this guy was going to be?
Let him stay in Baltimore. Pie is not a piece to the puzzle for the Cubs.
was when they were going to give Pie a chance at everyday at bats and then stopped after like 7 games.
Cubs didn't give Pie a chance. Ronny Cedeno was given a chance. They actually let him play a full season.
Not saying he's going to turn around and be an all star now, but they didn't really give Pie a chance.
You are right. The Cubs never gave Pie a chance. Compare him to Michael Bourn of the Astros. Both Pie and Bourn (in the Phillies system) were rated as high prospects. When the Astros acquired Bourn in 2008, he hit .229 in 467 AB. But the Astros stayed with him and last year he hit .285 in 606 AB with almost 100 runs scored and 63 SB.
Imagine what the Cubs would have now, if they had given Pie 600 AB in a season rather than spending big on the contracts for Fukudome or Bradley
I will agree that he was a whipping boy at times. I just don't know when or how he should have been given at bats, or better yet taken away bats, during 2007. Cubs should have started him and let him play a ton in 2006, to see what he could bring.
However, he's just in a long line of prospects that were overly hyped by the Cubs and never panned out. Anyone see Luis Montenz (the next A-rod)? Or Pat Cline anywhere? Or Bobby Brownlie?
Wuertz was good, but in early 2008 he couldn't find the zone and teams laid off that slider. Eyre....he just got in Piniella's doghouse and never got out. Pitched great, late in 2007.
Sign with the Orioles and played the outfield, batted .183. Brian dopirak 26 years old, released by the Cubs, signed with the Blue Jays battd .317 with 42 dbls. 27 hr's and
102 RBI Class AA Manchester and Class AAA Las Vegas, will get a good look see for Toronto,
projected as a D/H.
The Cubs are playing a game, and will say when Byrd is signed, WE DIDN'T THINK WE WANTED TO GO THAT FAR IN YEARS OR MONEY, RIGHT NOW WE'VE GOT SOME YOUNG OUTFIELDERS WHO HAD SOME PRETTY GOOD YEARS IN THE MINORS AND THEY DESERVE A GOOD LOOK SEE- That I am an agrement with.
His stats have improved every year in the bigs. I know that it is a small sample but he is only 25. I agree with Boozer that he wasn't given much of a chance...some players don't perform well looking over their shoulder. I still think you need a good mix of young talent and quality vets on a team.
Wuertz, Ardsma, Eyre all did pretty well after leaving the Cubs, perhaps like Vazquez doing
well with the Braves and not the White Sox, these players can't take the pressure of Major large League Ball Park with demanding fans and sportswriters, I'm sorry Philadelphia has a lot of pressure. Or maybe our Chicago Managers are too tough and expect too much from their players. Of course Eyre mostly pitched to two batters most of the time for the Phillies.After many hears Ardsma also figured it out, played with a lot of teams after leaving the Cubs.
Expetation of Pie where very high, and the Cubs wanted him to lead off, and use his speed
to hit ground balls and beat them up. He's probably not that kind of hitter, he's fast but
doesn't know how to steal bases. It still may not work out in Chicago, and I don't think he
has minor league options.
Ahh.....my favorite topic.
First off, I own a Zambrano jersey. So, I do have a place in my heart for the guy, but I just really wonder if he isn't overrated. It's something that has to be debated.
For all the stat geeks, I appreciate the QS, and all the over stats that can make even a Jose Guzman look good. For me....it's about wins. Zambrano is being paid like an ace, and I still don't believe that he is "that guy". Think about this....How many career playoff wins does Zambrano have? Zero. None. 4 out of the 5 games, the guy was given a lead, or was in a tight game. Out of those 4, 2 times HE blew it.
2003:
--vs Atlanta: He was staked to an early lead and imploded in game 2 at Turner Field
--vs Florida: The game that even Jim Hendry has stated over and over again....that the Cubs should have won. How you blow a monster lead is beyond me? People can blame bartman, or goats...but for me the two biggest jokes were: Zambrano in game 2, and Alex Gonzalez blowing that double play. Special mention goes out to Dusty for not having Rothschild go out and talk to Prior who was visably rattled after that, and Alou not getting an interference call.
--vs Florida: A desperate Marlins team rides Josh Beckett in game 5. Zambrano pitched OK. If the Cubs got this performance in game 2, are we still 102 years and counting?
2006:
--vs Arizona: Best start, and I blame Piniella for pulling him. Finally, we saw the mature, dealing Zambrano when it mattered. I thought he turned a corner. He matched Webb pitch for pitch.
2007:
--vs LA: He battled until DeRosa boots a routine double play, and then the flood gates open. He got shelled. Yes, that is the same immortal, future HOF, Mark DeRosa. Maybe that's why Cleveland, and ST. Louis didn't play him at 2nd this year......
So when it mattered.....what did you get? You got a very average pitcher. Now, some other guys across baseball don't have great postseason stats, but when you are being paid, and expected to carry a team....you must show up. Only 1 time in 4 starts has Z done that.
Wood showed up in 1998 with a destroyed arm. He also showed up in 2003, and was man enough to shoulder the blame for game 7. I'll always respect Wood for that.
Hell, even Prior showed up in 2003. Out dueled Maddux in game 3, mowed down the Marlins twice.
Even more, look at EVERY manager the guy has had. I bet anyone here they have said this each time..."For the stuff he has, he SHOULD win 20 games". He doesn't. Why? Because he's mentally weak. The guy blows up. He pouts. He curses out his catcher, his pitching coach, he throws tantrums, he shows up teammates, he's immature. I bet ex teammates don't respect the guy.
Look at his stuff. You can tell right away what Z you are going to get. If his ball is moving late, he's dominant. However, how many starts a year do you get that? Instead, you get the guy picking at the corners and staring down an umpire. Or the guy throwing tubed heaters that get hammered. A 3.76 ERA for a supposed "ace" is not going to cut it.
So, I have no problem with the Cubs shopping the guy. I understand he has a NTC, and I honestly wonder if he doesn't like hitting more then pitching. I also wonder if he were offered to waive it to go to another NL team would he?
Way too long....sorry if anyone's eyes burn out reading that.
According to Jerry Crasnick, it comes down to Capps closing for the Nats or setting up for the Cubs.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4764837
Grabow is trying to convince him to sign with the Cubs. I have a feeling he will be playing a lot more games at Wrigley next year. He's supposed to make his decision tomorrow night, just in time for Christmas.
Says it will be Washington. More years, less money but he gets to close.
It's understandable that Capps would prefer to close rather than be a setup man, but there are no guarantees in baseball. Injuries, trades and even incredibly wild streaks are a reality. I'm assuming that Hendry has made it clear to Capps and his agent that their intention is to have Marmol be their closer to begin the season, but that they also are well aware that Marmol issued 65 BB's and hit 12 batters in 74 innings this year and there are no promises. Hendry has Grabow trying to sell Capps on the Cubs. He also can offer the lure of pitching for a contender, and the chance to be on the Cubs team that finally wins a WS after more than 100 years. I could understand being outbid by the Yankees or Red Sox in trying to sign a FA, but losing out on a player to the Nats?
Simple as that.
8:34am: The Yankees are closing in on a deal for Vazquez, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (via Twitter). Heyman says the Yankees will acquire Vazquez and Boone Logan for Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn and a prospect.
Now we can settle down on Zambrano for Hughes, Cabrera, and Cano!!
Why would the Cubs want to trade Zambrano, one of the top 3 starters on the Cubs. They're
still have to wait for Lilly to come back, and want to make sure Wells was not a 1 year wonder.
Besides, the Yankees didn't want Hughes and Champerlan as starters, and will be relief pitchers,
thats why they wanted another starter, little confidence in both. Cano is all right, Cabrera is Ok,
but they would have to do better then that to get Zambrano. Besides he's a lot of value to the
Cubs, and if they wanted to trade him, they could probably get a lot better returns from 15 or 20
other teams.
If Castro is going to be ready sometime in 2010, why not put Theriot at 2B and have Andres Blanco be the caretaker at SS until the arrival. I know that Blanco isn't too good at the plate, but he is the best defensive infielder I've seen on the Cubs in a long, long time.
I read somewhere else that the Yankees were actually talking to the Cubs about Lilly not Zambrano, and had proposed Cabrera or Gardner and a pitching prospect not named Hughes or Chamberlain for Lilly. I have to believe that if they were to offer Hughes and Cabrera, the Cubs have to do that right? Lower salary, under team control, and probably more upside, though maybe not this year. Then you take that money and sign Pineiro or Sheets.
Cano, Hughes & Cabrera for Z would get my approval.
Come on, are you serious.
You sure you don't want to ask for ARod and Capn Jetes too?
Do you have a link?
no, where I read it was on the ESPN Message boards, someone said it was on ESPN radio yesterday.
I'm not sure I'd put Randy Wells in the sure thing category just yet. There have been many players who had very good rookie years and then never came close to that type of success again. It will be interesting to see what adjustments hitters make to Randy next year. I hope he continues to get better as I enjoy watching him pitch and from the interviews I've seen he seems like a hardworking, down-to-earth guy. However, a rotation of Z, Dempster, Wells, ? and ? doesn't exactly strike fear in the hearts of the NL. I hope Lilly only misses a few weeks but you never know with injuries.
I watched him a lot this year, reminds me of Greg Maddux in many ways, hope he'll turn up half as good.
I think you mis-interpreted Bruce. "Sure thing" meaning he's a sure thing to be IN the rotation. Not a sure thing to be anything special.
Right now the only sure things for the rotation are Zambrano, Dempster, and Wells. The rest of the rotation is a question mark.
Boozer, thanks. At this point, the only "sure" names we know who are going to be in the rotation are the aforementioned Z, Demp and Wells. There are no "sure things" as far as performance goes, but Wells certainly has earned his spot to be in the rotation at the start of the season.
Sorry Bruce, my bad.
**Edit*** Sorry for the position of this post. I wanted it to go at the bottom of the page as a reply to the second base discussion.*********
Miguel Tejada is still very productive offensively...probably lost range in the field. Tejada is the extra RBI bat they thought they needed last year's offseason. Maybe Tejada could be signed for a reasonable salary.
If Castro is still a year away, Cubs could give Tejada to a one year deal, move Theriot to second. That gives Theriot a year experience at second in advance of Starlin Castro's arrival.
Yeah I thought of Tejada also, but he probably won't sign at a low price, or a one year contract.
Could go to the Giants or Angels