The Final Week - Morning Trough

The final week:

Looks like all the top races are tightening up if recent poll numbers are to be believed.
On the Republican side for governor, it is a three-horse race between state Sen. Kirk Dillard, former Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna and former Illinois Attorney General Jim Ryan.
Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes is gaining on Gov. Pat Quinn on the Democratic side, but the impact on the latest round of ads that are clearly aimed - at least in part - at black voters remains unclear.
And for Senate, Democrats Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman appear to be gaining momentum while Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is still the one to beat. Recent poll data shows Hoffman hasn't really moved ahead as much as he has needed too while Jackson is taking a more notable piece of the pie. There are still a considerable number of undecided voters in that race, however, meaning a late game change could still make a mark before Feb. 2.

But what we will learn on Feb. 2, perhaps more so this time than in other elections, is whether polling can actually serve as a real predictor in such an early, off-year election.
Some candidates with high numbers are clearly running a general election game plan - spending heavily on TV advertising, but appearing to lack focus on the ground game to actually get those voters to the polls.
And the ground game is undoubtedly going to be decisive in all of these races. In the packed Republican field, that is what Ryan has been focusing on lately, apparently lacking the money to really compete with McKenna on TV and radio.
Ryan got Bob Schillerstrom to drop out late last week and brought out DuPage County State's Attorney Joe Birkett for a late boost. Those two moves will likely pay off for him in DuPage County, which is said to have the most formidable GOP 'machine' in the state.
Sure Schillerstrom isn't likely to move any poll numbers for Ryan, but now scores of precinct captains and other party faithful are free to push the former attorney general.
Certainly Dillard hopes to pick up some of that force, but it remains to be seen how much he can garner.
For the Democrats, Quinn spent the weekend rallying voters with Jesse Jackson against Hynes' latest Harold Washington ads. That is no doubt significant.
But Hynes was busy making his rounds in the city's other vote-rich wards and landing the public backing of John Daley, the mayor's brother and the 11th ward boss as well a Cook County commissioner, and Ald. Robert Maldonado.

Up today:

Hynes and Quinn will face off in an expected heated debate tonight on Ch. 11 at 7 p.m.

Dillard is up in Rockford today landing endorsements from local lawmakers and the county board chairman. He is planning a Chicago event with Gov. Jim Edgar later this week. Ryan is hitting a media tour with downstate radio and Chicago TV.

The Republican candidates for governor are debating Tuesday night on Ch. 11 at 7 p.m.

Observers expect a switch-up in ads across the board this week and some might drop today. Though one has to wonder what more Hynes and Quinn could have up their sleeves. Ryan and Dillard are trying to get up with more air time and McKenna seems to have all the money in the world to come out with a game changer he hopes will leave his DuPage County challengers in the dust. Soon the talk will start of whether candidates on both sides are spoiling their party's chances in the general election.

Fundraising reports for the Senate are finally in.
Giannoulias had about $1 million on hand as of Jan. 13, having raised more than $3 million in the campaign.
Former prosecutor and Chicago Inspector General Hoffman raised nearly $800,000 since Nov. 1 and has so far put in $1 million of his own wealth (his grandfather made his fortune in the insurance industry with Geico). He had about $700,000 on hand as of Jan. 13.
The report for Jackson, a former Blagojevich spokeswoman, was not posted as of late Sunday. The reports, due on Thursday, are submitted by hand to the Senate clerk and then scanned into the system. The process is cumbersome and can take days.
For the Republicans, U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk still had $3 million in the bank as of Jan. 13 after raising $5 million in the campaign, amassing a notable warchest for the general election.
Hinsdale businessman Patrick Hughes raised more than half a million dollars in his bid and had just over $20,000 on hand as of Jan. 13. Half of Hughes' cash is coming from his own bank account.

News you should know:

Nearly all the candidates for governor are raising most of their cash from big contributors, raking in checks of $25,000 or more after passing campaign finance limits.

Birkett endorses Jim Ryan (and Dan Cronin for county board chairman) on Sunday, both attack McKenna.

Candidates for DuPage County Board chairman hash it out on government waste.

State Democrats focusing on jobs, Republicans say it is about time.

Dan Seals lagging in 10th District Dem raise when it comes to bringing in the cash. Robert Dold and Beth Coulsen top on the Republican side.

Dirk Beveridge and Maria Rodriguez come out on top in cash race in the 8th District.

Beveridge landed the Daily Herald's endorsement.

Sandy Cole opponent in the 62nd District makes a go at it with a little help from Jack Roeser.

'Jeans Day' controversy won't fade for Dorothy Brown in board president primary.

Candidates for state Rep. Carol Sente's race debate gambling expansion in 58th District.

A look at who is up and down in campaign fundraising in northwest Cook County legislative races.