You be the arbitrator with Theriot, Cubs
As I warned the day the arbitration figures were exchanged, Ryan Theriot and the Cubs were on a collision course toward a hearing, a first for the Cubs since Larry Himes and Mark Grace went at it in 1993. Theriot, who made $500,000 last year is seeking $3.4 million while the Cubs are offering $2.6 million.
That’s a difference of “only” $800,000, but the Cubs appear to feel the $3.4 million figure is way too high, especially give the midpoint is $3 million, which the Cubs also feel is too rich for a first-year arb-eligible player. As a somewhat related aside, Theriot is no kid. He just turned 30 years old in December.
Just for the fun of it, let’s pretend we’re in the hearing room, assuming Theriot and the Cubs are going to arbitration sometime this month. I actually spent a few minutes in an arbitration hearing room. A couple years ago, when Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs settled just minutes before their scheduled hearing, a few of us reporters hightailed it from Mesa to Phoenix, where “court” was set up in a hotel conference room. Both sides were going to be well represented, with laptops and reams of information ready to go.
They’d have kicked us out, of course, before the hearing were to have begun, but I think I managed to grab a can of Diet Pepsi from the room, if the Cubs and the players association want to bill me for it.
So here we go. The Cubs and maybe GM Jim Hendry are likely to say: “Obviously, Ryan, we love you. Obviously, you scrap and scrape and do all those little, gritty things this organization loves. But since we do pay attention to stats, contrary to what some may believe, we’ll present these to the arbitrator:
“From 2008 to 2009, Mr. Theriot’s offensive line went from .307/.387/.359 to .284/.343/.369. His wOBA (yeah we know what that is, too), went from .338 to .318. More alarmingly, his flyball percentage jumped from 20.2 percent to 30 percent, and we don’t pay Mr. Theriot to hit flyballs, no matter what our manager (and we love him, too) thinks. On top of it, Mr. Theriot’s walks total dropped from 73 to 51 while his strikeouts spiked from 58 to 93. Or, put another way, Mr. Theriot’s BB/K ratio went from 1.26 to 0.55 in a year’s time. We rest our case.”
Now, it’s The Riot’s turn:
“Thank you. You know, I really put it all out there last year, playing in a career-high 154 games, even when that beloved manager said he’d give me a rest now and then. Those 154 games led the team, as did my 602 at-bats. Can you say ‘gamer?” I believe many have.
“On top of that, I set career highs in triples with 5, home runs with 7 and RBI with 54. Hey, I was only doing what Skip wanted me to do when to told me to ‘drive’ the ball. Isn’t that the epitome of a team player?
“I hear a lot of talk about my defense and range being lacking. You forgot something, there, across the table, when you cited all your fancy stats. How about my UZR going from 0.4 to 7.7 and my UZR/150 going from 0.7 to 8.3 in a year's time? I saw all those glances in the dugout whenever Andres Blanco made a nice play, and I’ve heard all that talk about that Castro kid taking my job this year and pushing me to second base. But right now, I’m the best you got. We rest our case.”
OK, you be the judge. How do you rule? Give The Riot the $3.4 million or side with the Cubs and $2.6 mil?
I’m sure by now both sides could use a Diet Pepsi if those blasted writers didn’t abscond with them before they were thrown out of the room.
Bruce, nice story. Do the arbitrators tend to lag in their estimates of market value, which would less accurately reflect the current (obviously down) market? Or do they look at the fact that guys like Orlando Hudson (not a ss, I know, but work with me here) or Felipe Lopez are not getting the paydays they seem to be holding out for?
And speaking of Felipe, while I wish him all the best, you've got to wonder why he can't stay in one place with those not-bad stats. Given the choice between a gamer and not-so-much, I've got to go with the guy who shows up.
Good stuff, Cevans. There's no wiggle room with the arbitrators. It's one figure or the other, as you probably know. That said, they look more at "comparables." In other words, what do similar players with similar service time as Theriot, for example, make. From what I know of the process, they don't take into consideration the situations of free agent players who are still unemployed.
You hit on something with Lopez. I do know the Cubs have had internal discussions about him and that opinion appears divergent as to "what kind of guy" he might be in the clubhouse. The Cubs aren't alone in debating those attributes.
Appreciate the input.
--Bruce
Not necessarily his attitude that is lacking that makes him move. He played for the Cardinals in 2008 and Larussa reportedly is considering having him back. It is more his desire to get paid. Last year he was planning on a good payday, and the same situation happened as this year. The market is tight and contracts are small. Look at Orlando Hudson as well. He has been moving alot and is in the same circumstance. These guys are having to move to get a job. The only difference is that the last 2 years, Lopez has been traded to teams needing a middle infielder(Cardinals and Brewers).
I've also talked to people in and around baseball all winter long.
I find it interesting that Theriot seems pretty adamant about his value as a player. The fact that he came up to the major leagues as an older rookie makes me wonder if that is the root of this situation.
When Theriot was drafted, the Cubs wanted him to learn to be a switch hitter, something that is very difficult to do. Remember, Theriot was drafted as a college player. Not surprisingly, learning to switch hit didn't go well at all. After a couple of years, Theriot went back to hitting only right handed and had much more success.
I wonder if that decision to make Theriot a switch hitter is at the root of the situation. This decision delayed Theriot's development by a couple of years and is the main reason he ended up being an older rookie.
Theriot has waited a long time to be offered a large contract. Maybe that partly explains why Theriot thinks his value is higher than what the Cubs are offering.
Probably wants him to do this too. Theriot getting $3.4 million is a good thing for future mediocre players.
Arbitrator: "WTF is wOBA or UZR? I see that you have a career 284 average. Decent for a SS. But you don't have many rbi's or runs. Although you do average over 20 stolen bases a year. Defensively you're below average with 15 errors; good for 14th in majors with enough innings at SS.
$3.4 million vs. $2.6 million
Winner: Ryan Theriot
I only say this because I think they use AVG, HR's, RBI, Fld % instead of the good stuff.
...an arbitrator involved with Major League Baseball in 2010 does not judge hitters based on batting average, RBI or runs scored. And I especially hope he or she doesn't use errors to determine defensive skill.
Come to think of it, I'd be curious to know exactly what qualifies one to be an baseball arbitrator. Bruce, any ideas?
I will ask. A baseball guy told me back in the 1990s, when the stats revolution was barely under way, a player's rep told the arbitrator: "My client's batting average was such and such. And not only that, but his on-base percentage was higher!" I'm told the player won based on that. Let's hope we indeed have come a long way.
The Chancellor at my alma mater is an active arbitrator with MLB and towards the end of my collegiate career I had the opportunity to sit down with him as there was an opening within MLB he thought I should take a look at.
It takes a while to get to a position such as that but more than anything you need to be an expert in things such as Economics and labor relations. Experience obviously also plays a big factor in getting to the position. There isn't a specific 'career path' to get there.
That is rather, uh, disturbing.
He would still be looking for a job. As has been pointed out, he has average at best range, a weak arm(tho he is accurate), doesn't have good hands around the bag(drops as many throws as anyone I have seen). His walks are down, Ks are up. Basically he is a league average player, one who could be easily replaced.
I wonder if he knows or even cares that he is writing his own ticket out of town.
...as a free agent. He's not the world's best shortstop, but he's the best the Cubs are likely to lay their hands on this offseason. (Felipe Lopez, as a for instance, isn't any better, despite what you might think. That's just "grass is greener" talk.)
Now Theriot is really past the peak of his career, and so the Cubs don't want to get into a long-term deal - he could be a nontender candidate in few years, realistically.
But for the start of the season the best thing for the Cubs is to have Theriot at shortstop and Castro in the minors - both for this year and for the long-term health of the franchise.
Have a look at the numbers. Lopez is a consistently strong BA/OBP guy who bats from both sides of the plate. His numbers have lead-off hitter written all over them. I don't like him as a SS, but as the everyday 2B. If Theriot was out of the way, the Cubs would be fine with Andres Blanco at SS and batting eighth on a regular basis. I believe the Cubs are a better team with this scenario, rather than with Theriot at SS and a Fontenot/Baker platoon at 2B.
...not looking at numbers.
PECOTA has Lopez projected for a .266/.341/.388 batting line, compared to .284/.356/.370 for Theriot - so if you're looking for OBP, Theriot is your guy.
And Theriot is definitely the better defensive shortstop of the pair.
What planet are you from?
Lopez is 29, Theriot is 30.
Lopez last 3 years - .279 .345 .389 .734
Theriot LAST 3 YEARS - .286 .353 .358 .711
According to Keith Law, Lopez is an average to slightly above average fielder. Neither is a very good base stealer.
Last year, Lopez had a .310 batting average, .383 OBP, .427 SL
basically the same offense (OBP >>>>> SLG), but Theriot plays an average SS while Lopez plays a terrible SS and an average 2B.
Therefore Theriot > Lopez. At the very least its a wash. SS is much more difficult to fill than 2B.
Let's see -- no range, poor arm, bad on-base percentage, no power. Surprised Hendry didn't offer him $80 million for five years.
I'm not a big believer in Theriot's bat, but he has a .356 career OBP in 2,108 plate appearances. So it's simply inaccurate to say he has a "bad" OBP. And either he's paying off the folks who compile and calculate UZR (and a couple other defensive metrics) or he really does play a solid, if unspectacular, shortstop - despite what our eyes might tell us.
Bruce, would it be possible to move Theriot if he were making $3M? My thinking is to sign him and trade him (for prospects preferably or a middle reliever). Then if you took the Theriot money and went out and signed Felipe Lopez to play 2B and bat leadoff, you could live with Blanco as your everyday SS and eighth hitter, this season. However, if he's not attractive to other teams at $3M, then I guess we're stuck with whatever the arbitrator comes up with.
However, the Cubs have not evinced any interest whatsoever in Felipe Lopez. The shortstop-second base situation will be a developing one all year, depending on how Castro does and how the Fontenot-Baker situation works out at second base. You can pretty much forget Lopez, though.
Have the Cubs had any discussions about Hudson that you know of Bruce? Perhaps too late, but I'm curious nevertheless.
As the Cubs pointed out at the Cubs convention, second base is not their focus. Hudson wants too much money, and the Cubs also pointed out he lost his starting job to Ronnie Belliard down the stretch.
Sorry to hear that. What this lineup needs is a bonafide, major league, leadoff hitter. Theriot and/or Fukudome don't do it for me.
...it's Fukudome's lack of speed that bothers you?
....not worth the money.
sorry but i say pay the guy, if they want some face then give him 3.3! Im sure it will settle at 3. The cubs are getting older and in win now stage, do they really want 2 bring up a "scrappy" kid 2 try 2 slot in? Sure riots numbers are not mind blowing and pretty average at times, but how many slap double rally starters or big hits did he come up with? Not alot of guys i would want up in the 9th down by a run 2 start or finish the game. Just pay him or envite me 2 spring training, ill play for the 2.6mil
Ryan,
This really applies to all athletes. I can't believe that Ryan is still willing to play for the Cubs after an offer of only a 600% pay raise. He should quit and get a job where he and management might be able to amicably agree on a 60 cent per hour raise. Think about Ryan, your pride is at stake.
But I went with what I thought was funnier. My bad :)
and he is at $3.4 million, you meet in the middle. Why try to chisel him down to 2.75 or 2.9 million? What does that do to help you win? It's not like the divide between the Giants and Lincecum.
It seems to me, there is more behind this from the Cubs side trying to prove some sort of point. He's in the prime of his career. Pay the guy.
Hands down. We've got plenty of "Scrappy" in the minors itching for your job. Be thankful you're still being paid by us and not the Royals.
From now on, whenever Lou says to "Drive the ball" your first and only thought should be "Which car do I take?"
...the Cubs have "plenty" of minor-league shortstops ready to seize Theriot's spot. Starlin Castro is the big name, but he's still only 19 years old and needs (IMHO) at least another year in the minors. There's also Hak-Ju Lee, but he's a ways off, too. I don't think Darwin Barney projects as more than a utility guy. The team really doesn't have a ton of depth at SS.
I think we are all anticipating the news of him signing for $3M, and then reading how all sides can now focus on this season.
On a side note, I'm hoping Bruce can answer a question that has puzzled me for a long time:
Quite often during the season, I hear advertisements for MLB and other athletes for appearances. "Come see Ryan Theriot at Pep Boys or Barnes and Nobles."
Why do these players agree to these appearances? At most they only have the one day off a week, and I can't believe that they would rather spend half or all of their only day off, in transit to and at the grand opening of the new Sears or other venture. I see The Riot 'only' made $500,000 in 2009, but really, how can it be worth it to be away from their families, etc. And most of these guys are pulling in $1 Million+ per year. How does it add up?, Know what I mean? Thanks
Harold, pay me "only" $500,000 per year for working about 5 hours per day (summer only, I'll need my winters off) force me to stay in the best hotels and have my food paid for when I'm on the road and I'd gladly show up at any venue you wanted where adoring fans tell me how great I am.
Let me know where I sign!
Theriot is somewhere between an average and above average major league shortstop. He brings a decent bat to a premium defensive position. As shown above, he is also showing signs of improving his defense. He is definitely worth $3.4 million.
Cubs. Sorry, Riot.
Seriously, he needs to put up strong numbers over a longer period of time. Too many fly balls too trying to show off that warning track power.