Hendry talks chemistry, roster
Five days until I head for Mesa. We'll have a spring preview in Sunday's paper, and I'll have a blog-style primer in the next day or so. The beauty of having a big and varied media mix (including the "bloggers") in Chicago is that different reporters have different ways of going about their questions. Cubs GM Jim Hendry was on ESPN 1000 here in Chicago this morning with Waddle and Silvy (ex-Bear Tom Waddle and Marc Silverman).
Silvy asked Jim if he consciously went out of his way to get a better mix of "chemistry" in the subtraction of Milton Bradley and the additions of Marlon Byrd and non-roster man Kevin Millar. To me, "chemistry" is winning, but we've beaten that subject to death. Here's what Jim said on the radio even as he said he wanted to put Milton behind him.
"Honestly, until obviously, Milton, we'd always had that," Hendry said of good chemistry. "So it wasn't like it was a u-turn of philosophy. We had a great bunch of guys here for a long time, and we still do. Obviously, I made the mistake of trying to fit in the perfect type offensive player, and obviously, when that didn't work, the other issues came out. Fortunately, we put it behind us. It wasn't a conscious effort of doing anything entirely different. It was just like back to the norm, to be honest with you. The team that won 97 two years ago and the team that came back in Lou's first year and won the division were filled with not only good players, but quality people. That's the way we've always done things."
Obviously, Jim says "obviously" a lot, and the "until obviously Milton" phrase was telling.
"Offensively, he was the right guy," Jim said. "It wasn't like we didn't do our homework. I'm still convinced to this day if he'd have hit like he normally did the first couple of months, probably a lot of the issues wouldn't have come out. He was probably our best player in spring training. I remember having some chats with Derrek Lee and Aramis during camp, and they were thrilled to have him. He (Milton) got out of the gate so poorly and just didn't handle that lack of success well."
I've been telling you here the Cubs are done acquiring position players, even though people are still bandying about the names of Johnny Damon and Felipe Lopez.
Silvy tried to get Jim to get specifics about names, but Jim wasn't biting, only to reiterate the Cubs would like a veteran to add to the pen, something he has been consistent about saying since the convention.
"We're not going to sign more position guys," Jim said.
The boys picked apart Jim's comments a little bit after he had hung up, specifically when Jim mentioned Alfonso Soriano hitting .270-.275 and hitting 30-plus homers. I think you take 30-plus homers from Soriano at this point, and if he can get the OBP up to .340 or so (it's never going to be great), I think you take that too, as long as everybody else is doing their part.
More to come between now and Tuesday, and we'll be blogging early and often from Fitch Park.
cubmadness, how about the Cardinals, I'd like you to compare them against the Cubs.
Very tough to make a comparison with the Cards, simply because Pujols is so good, that no matter who you put up against him, he is considerably better, but what the heck....
Pujols - Lee - Really about the only way the Cubs win this battle is if Pujols is injured for a considerable time, and I don't really expect that. He does have a history of missing some games, but played 160 last year. It would help the Cubs if he missed 20 games for his elbow or his plantar facitis. Basically equal players defensively too. Lee is capable of putting up a year that matches Pujols (2005), but it is highly unlikely. Advantage Pujols.
Julio Lugo - Fontenot/Baker - I would give the advantage here to the Cubs combo. Lugo's stat line for the last 3 years looks like this .255 .323 .358 (.691) averaging 18 SB per year. He is probably better defensively, but hard to say since he has not played much 2nd base. Cubs should be better by a bunch offensively, unless Lugo puts up a career year at 34.
Theriot - Ryan - Have to give the advantage to Ryan here. Maybe the best defensive SS in the league right now, and he was better offensively last year (a fluke?). If Theriot puts up 2008 numbers instead of 2009, and Ryan is back near his career line of .279 .333 .373 , this will be alot closer. Note, this could change. Ryan just had wrist surgery and will not be ready for the beginning of spring training.
Ramirez - Frese - Huge advantage Cubs. Frese is a 27 year old rookie, with a servicable bat with fringe power. Ramirez is one of the best 4 or 5 3rd basemen in baseball.
Holliday - Soriano - Could be a big advantage to Cardinals, alot depends on Soriano. If he posts his career line (.278 .326 .510 .836 36 HRs), the advantage is still to the Cardinals, but the gap is much narrower. Holliday's career line is .318 .387 .545 .933 29 HRs. Could be a slight Coors field drop off, but I wouldn't really count on it. Advantage Cards.
Byrd - Rasmus - This is a big question. Based on the numbers, you have to give the advantage to the Cubs. Byrds line the last 3 years is .295 .352 .468 (.820) with 14 HRs. So far, Rasmus has not put up anything near that (.251 .307 .407 .714 ). That being said, Rasmus could be very good. If I had to pick a player for the next 3 years(and beyond), I would take Rasmus and roll the dice. If I had to take a player strictly for 2010, I would pick Byrd.
Ludwick - Fukudome/Nady - Tough call. Who is the real Ludwick? Is it last year (.776 OPS) or the guy from 2008 (.996). Personally, I think he is much closer to the guy from last year. I have no basis for this other than guys don't normally come out of nowhere at 30 and put up those numbers. Also his BABIP was very high in 2008, and about league average last year. I would suspect that the Cubs combo of Nady/Fukudome will out produce him in terms of OPS. Fukudome vs RH (.270 .387 .441 .828 ), Nady vs LH (.278 .358 .454 .812) is going to be very productive for the Cubs. And the Cubs should be better defensively. Very slight edge to the Cubs, unless Ludwick reproduces 2008 which I think is unlikely.
Soto - Molina - Probably an advantage to the Cardinals. Depends on which Soto shows up. Molina is a little bit over-rated in my opinion, but his arm is phenomenal and he has solid on base skills. He posted an OPS of .749 last year. Everyone knows the story on Soto. I am expecting a big bounce back. If you base it on nothing but but how unlucky he was (BABIP was .54 below league average), he should hit near .50 points higher. You add that to this stats, and he would have been better last year than Molina. If you figure in that he should be in MUCH better shape, he should be a better player than Molina. But I can't give the advantage to Soto, until he does it on the field. Advantage Cardinals, but with a solid possibility of this being a Cubs advantage or at least a wash.
Rotation - Carpenter and Wainright are the best 1,2 combo in baseball in my opinion, if they both remain healthy. If that happens, Cubs are going to have to have a huge year from Zambrano and a quick return from Lilly. That being said, Carpenter had the best year of his career in 2009. He will be 35 in April and is injury prone. Wainright is 28 and also had the best year of his career. I actually think he is more capable of reproducing last year than Carpenter. As far as Lohse, Penny, and McClellan, they are bottom of the rotation guys. Yes, Duncan is great, but Lohse was not good last year, and really has only been good once. Penny has good stuff, but is injury prone and walks a ton of guys. His ERA was 4.88 last year in a major pitchers park.
I think Zambrano is due for a solid year. Better conditioning, and coming off his worst year. Dempster is who he is. Probably a solid #2/3 for most teams. Lilly?? Who knows. A very good #2 if healthy. The reports are good, but I will believe it when I see it. By all reports, it was a minor procedure, so you wouldn't expect he would have any significant problem. Wells was great last year. Can he reproduce it? Number would indicate he can(he was league average on BABIP), but we will see. If he keeps the walks to a minimum like last year, there is no reason he should be significantly worse. #5? I don't know. At least we have lots of candidates. Gorzelanny, Marshall, Samardzija, Berg, Silva, or maybe a surprise from either spring training or free agency.
Cards have an advantage in the rotation if Carpenter and Wainright are healthy.
Bullpen, Cubs have an advantage. Marmol is more proven than Franklin. Cubs are loaded with good young arms for the pen.
Pinella/Larussa - Probably a wash. Larussa probably has a better reputation, but I am not sure it is warranted. Either way, not a huge advantage.
Will the McGwire thing play into the Cards season at all? Who knows.
I have the same feeling as you do cubmadness. And unlike other sports, baseball is a long season when anything can happen. I'm hoping some of the young guys coming up will surprise. I'm also hoping Marshall, Gorzelanny and or Silva have good or excellent years, why not they have decent stuff. We need Soriano,Zambrano and Soto to rebound, and Nady and Fukodome to have a good season.
mostly I agree with Steve. I like Theriot but he's an average SS, no SS arm, average range. I'd start Castro at SS and move Theriot to 2nd.
someone should have talked to Silva and Lou about following Z and Soto's lead and lost some weight.
in my opinion everyone on the field should be in shape. players, coaches, ump's, etc. remember the ball girls? they were in better shape than most baseball people. Lou looks like Silva, fat, lazy. ok, I'm not a Lou fan, sorry.
if you are going on last year, what did our (Cubs) OF do to prove they are better? will Soriano hit 30/80 or is he done? will Nady come back? Fukudome is what he is. Fontenot has only 1 PT good year up here. Baker has yet to prove he's better than a PT player.
believe me I'd love to see all the Cubs have career years but like Steve I'm trying to be realistic. that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
to listen to about the Cubs......Jim Hendry....obviously.
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I don't buy it. Sure, if you base everything on Baseball America, they are fantastic, but so far, on the field, they simply have not done it. Lets look position by position.
Votto - Lee - Pretty much a wash offensively, Lee head and shoulders better defensively. If we were talking about next 5 years, I would take Votto. If we are talking about next year, I would take Lee.
Ramirez - Rolen - I love how the same people that criticize the Cubs fans for playing what if? speculate on how good the Reds can be IF Rolen bounces back. Ramirez is clearly the better player at this point in their careers.
Phillips - Fontenot/Baker - I would give this to Phillips, based mostly on his defense. I actually think a Baker/Fontenot combo will equal or out produce him offensively, but Phillips is clearly better offensively.
Theriot - Cabrera - I think you have to give the edge to Theriot here. Cabrera had a .705 OPS last year and career .720 OPS. Theriot was at .712 OPS and career .721. However, Cabrera is 35. His range is declining and probably offense is too. Theriot could very easily improve upon last years numbers.
Soriano - _________ - Reds don't really have a LF right now. Probably Dickerson at this point. I would think Soriano is better than anything they run out there unless they sign Damon, and if he reaches his career numbers, that could even be close.
Marlon Byrd - Drew Stubbs - I would take Byrd. Stubbs really hasn't done anything yet.
Bruce - Fukudome/Nady - Bruce could be considerably better here, but might not be. He hit .223 last year and his OPS was under .800(considerably under). I would imagine Cubs fans would already have run him out of town much as they did Pie. If the platoon combo of Fukudome/Nady can put up a .280/.380/470 line, Bruce is going to really have to breakout to surpass that combo. I would give the edge to the Cubs here, but this could be a major swing.
Soto - Hernandez - Clear edge to Soto, regardless of last year. He was awful in 2009 and still outproduced Hernandez. A more fit Soto should be better offensively and defensively than Hernandez.
Rotation - I will take Dempster over Arroyo, Zambrano over Cueto, a rehabbing Lilly over a rehabbing Volquez, I am going to call Wells/Bailey a wash, even though this could swing big one way or another, and Harang only a slight edge over whoever ends up being our #5 starter.
Bullpen - tough to say, I would go with the Cubs mostly due to Marmol.
And I believe that Pinella is head and shoulders better manager than Dusty.
Tell me where I am clearly wrong.
How you compare Fontenot and Baker to Phillips is a stretch to me. Fontenot and Baker are bench players. Nothing more. The fact that either of these goofs is going to start, should scare everyone. Platoons don't count. Pick a guy.
Phillips was .276 avg, 20 hrs, 98 rbis, and 25 sbs, 44 bs, and 75 ks for a guy who hit 20 hrs, and 30 2bs. He's consistently produced since coming over from Cleveland. He's a top 2b. Fontenot and Baker are laughing stocks...
Rolen is still a better fielder even at age 35. Ramirez is the better hitter, no question about that.
Cabrera is a wash for me. The offensive stats are close, but THeriot has a pathetic arm for a SS. I don't have access to the fielding stats, but I wouldn't think Theriot was anything but OK at SS last year, in terms of fielding.
Agreed on Soriano. The Reds have nobody listed there. I am not going to try to put together a platoon to build my case.
If you make the argument that Theriot is going "Get better" then you would have to assume Bruce wil as well. Can Nady stay healthy? We know what we have in Fukudome.....258, limited power, high ks, decent OBP. I would think Bruce could match his avg, and beat them in the power numbers.
Catcher is closer then you think. Hernandez has a better track record, but which Soto are you going to get? 2008 or 2009? His sample size is too small for me to give Soto a clear advantage.
Agreed on the manager. Bullpen is close. Rotation, you could juggle it anyway. Arroyo won 15 games last year. Harang was banged up, Volquez was rehabbing, and Cueto is their Zambrano. Tons of talent, but a mental moron.
The bottom line is that the Cubs won 5 more games then the Reds this year. Who has more question marks going into this year?
Like I said before, I put the Cardinals WAY out in front of everyone, and then bunch the Cubs, Reds, Brewers, and possibly Astros all together in a hat. They are all within the same range of wins as each other.
I'm not as blown away by Phillips as you are, and I think the Baker/Fontenot numbers will mirror whatever Phillips does.
Rolen is a better defensive 3B than Ramirez? I want some of what you're smoking.
The Reds OF amounts to a big handful of nuthin' if Bruce's numbers in 2010 look anything like they did in 2009. BIG ADVANTAGE CUBS.
Finally your assessment of the Reds starting rotation is purposely incomplete. While the Cubs are trying to identify a fifthe starter, the Reds rotation has four of them.
Is going to lead to some classic Piniella quotes/tirades/sound bites. Mark it down. The guy is bad. He's fat, lazy, and gives up a lot runs.
The Cubs 5th starter is nothing to write home.
Agree on the OF for the Reds. Dickerson is fast, and reminds me a lot of Patterson, but Baker will screw him up. I have no clue who is playing LF for the Reds. So yes, they need a HUGE year out of Bruce. He has to live up to his potential.
My take on Silva is that he need not even be mentioned in the starting rotation unless Lilly can't go by late April. I've got the starting rotation as:
1. Zambrano
2. Dempster
3. Lilly
4. Wells
5. Gorzelaany
Everybody is forgetting that 2-3 years ago, before he got hurt, Gorzelanny was THE up and coming LH starting pitcher in the NL. He looked like he was rounding back into form at times last year, despite being shuffled between starting and relieving. I look for him to resemble the 2007 version of himself (14 wins with an awful Pirate team and 3.88 ERA). He's only 27 years old and just coming into his pitching prime. Don't be surprised to see him put up a Lilly-like stat line in 2010 if he gets a regular turn in the rotation.
Don't you realize how bias you are though? Not meant as an attack or anything; just saying, you give the benefit of the doubt to the Cubs players but its the other way around with the Reds.
Gorzelany can't hold a candle to what Cueto or Bailey were/are "supposed to be" and both of those guys are still young enough to reach their ceilings. Gorzellany has been bad for the last two years, and even in that so called good year of his, his WHIP was still at 1.4.
Gorzelanny, by virtue of his 2007 season, has shown that what he can do on the major league level. So far, his best season is better than anything that Cueto or Bailey have done. That's all I'm sayin'. You say that Gorzelanny has been bad that last two seasons, but he pitched hurt in 2008 and last year wasn't too bad if you look at the splits and take into consideration that he was shuffled back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation.
And who is Johnny Cueto and what is he "supposed to be"? Gorzelanny was a second round draft pick by the Pirates - Cueto an undrafted free agent, who (rumor has it) may or may not be his stated age. I like his potential, don't get me wrong, but given their major league numbers to date, you have to say that Gorzelanny is at the very least on par with him. I'll stand by my prediction for Gorzelanny, this season, if he gets 25-30 starts (10-15 wins, ERA just below 4, and a WHIP around 1.3).
You accuse me of bias - I accuse you of being overly pessimistic. How's that?
An upcoming star after 2007. Now he's with the Cardinals, and if Dave Duncan saves his career, he cements his place as the best pitching coach in baseball.
Draft picks don't mean jack in baseball. Some guys never make it past AA or AAA, and undrafted guys become Hall of Famers.
Todd Van Poppel was a 1st round pick...what did he do? Where is Pat Kline? Or Bobby Brownlie? Or all the other busts of Cubs draft picks over the years...
To compare Hill and Gorzelanny isn't accurate and is unfair to Gorz. You know it and I know it, so check that argument at the door. On the other hand, your point about draft picks is well taken. I get it.
You stated earlier how Gorelanny was an upcoming star left hander. So was Hill in 2007.
Your right. The 5th starter doesn't see a ton of action in April.
The reasons that Hill's and Gorzelanny's careers are in need of a reboot are not similar. While Hill has also gone through some arm difficulties, Gorzelanny hasn't had the difficulty locating the strike zone that Hill has. In fact, if Duncan can't help Hill find the plate, perhaps they could hire him a a special instructor, named Garmin.
Yeah....I sat there in 2007 against Arizona and watched Hill tube the first pitch and get lit up. He wasn't the same since. All those articles about positive mental books, couldn't save him. He then started walking the world in early 2008, and I believe his last start as a Cubs was against Pittsburgh. I used to chuckle reading Piniella's lips as he waddled out to the mound or around the dugout. I have never seen a pitcher get the "Deer in the headlights" look more then Hill. Sad thing is, if he starts out fast with the Cardinals.....watch how quickly this blog blows up asking why we traded him.
I'm the guy who has everyone of his friends that are Sox fans. Most of them were Cubs fans at some point, but just couldn't take the yearly torture any more. I get more crap then almost any Cub fan I know. Fantasy drafts, softball teams, it is ridiculous. I watched either on TV, or on gamecast EVERY 2008 Cubs game. Loved that team. Figured when they got Harden, they were set. Sent a few tirade posts through this blog about D-lee being an automatic double play (which he was at the time), and not being clutch. Guys like Riggs, and BearsandCubs probably think I'm bi-polar.
I have never been more let down by any professional team in my life then the 2008 Cubs. It was so typical Cubs. Great regular season by guys, and then almost every big name guy chokes. Dempster, Zambrano, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Soto.....It was insane. The DeRosa bobble of the sure DP in game 2 was deja-vu of Alex Gonzalez in 2003. It never ends.
I still haven't recovered. I reinvested a ton of my energy into the hawks, and have been rewarded so far....They have won playoff games, something I can't say about the Cubs. I also find myself friends with a TON of Sox fans that are hawks fans, that are shocked I still claim alliegance to the cubs.
I'm not negative, just scorned. Not saying all other Chicago teams fans are perfect, or more knowledgeable, but there is no denying that Wrigley has turned into a circus...It's crazy. I sadly see some of these people showing up at Hawks games. Dancing around to chelsea dagger like it's "go cubs go" at Wrigley. I travel a lot for work, and fans in St. Louis are the most knowledgeable fans I have met.
Trust me...At some point, you and some of these other guys will have had enough that you realize it's time to take a step back. I haven't been back inside Wrigley for a Cubs game since the extra inning loss to the Astros in September of 2008. Nor do I have any desire to do so.
I am absolutely baffled how Jim Hendry is still in charge. I was probably a post away from being banned on this site for my exchanges with BroLight. The guy ran around and threw money around, and now he's stuck with an aging roster that EASILY could have used some tweaks but instead he was cash strapped due to having to trade away his mistakes (Miles, Bradley). That window to win has closed. I know he's done a few good things, but give some of the other GMs a top 3 payroll and I promise you the Cubs would have been in contention years ago.
There are a lot of smart guys on this board, backing up their points with numbers. I just look at baseball-reference...Not into all the new age stuff. OBP is important, but there are numbers or stats that probably make Fukudome look good. I just base a lot on the eye test, and the numbers.
For every rocket that a guy hits right at somebody, he also gets rewarded with a seeing eye single, infield hit where his bat explodes, or a jam shot over the IF. It all works itself out.
Steve,
Your going to give yourself a heart attack:)
Any team can catch fire...remember besides being a few years older this team isn't much different then the 08 team that won 97 games.
We really don't know how things will play out. No one would have thought Theriot would be your SS that year...Castro could be that guy this year. Nady might be your Jim Edmonds. I have to believe that if they are in it at the deadline, they will get another pitch. They have a ton of money coming off the books at the end of the year.
If I am not mistaken, Rich Hill had shoulder surgery in April for a torn Labrum. I wouldn't expect much out of him early in the year.
Wouldn't be the first time I was accused of being overly pessimistic. Seems I was called that when I complained about the Cubs lack of depth in the infield last season and when I said Fukudome won't be anything more than a left handed version of Matt Murton. Disregard the fact that I think Soto is going to have a year more in line with his 2008, thinking that Byrd is going to be a solid pick up, thinking that Dempster and Zambrano will both continue to be solid, if unspectacular.
I just think Lilly and Soriano won't do much, and Wells will regress, yet I'm pessimistic instead of realistic?
Of course Cueto was an undrafted free agent. So was Felix Hernandez, Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, and Aroldis Chapman....they are not eligible for the draft.
Elliott, I don't personally see Gorzelanny/Marshall/Samardzija with an ERA under 4.00. Hopefully under 4.50. I would take that from the 5th starter. I think Samardzija wins the job in the spring.
Boozer, I don't think Cueto is every going to reach his potential. I think he is a mental midget. Bailey might still get there. But the majors are littered with guys with great stuff who can't pitch. Samardzija may be one of those guys. But I am ever hopeful.
I don' think either of the other two that you mentioned will be part of the 2010 rotation. Marshall, by numbers alone, seems better suited to the bullpen, and I think that the Cubs have five guys (Gorz is one of them) who are more viable major league starters, at this time, than Samardzija is.
Are Boozer and Steve Rain the same person. Not accusing, just clarifying.
They are NOT the same person. Boozer has not given up on the season yet. Rain has.
Easy there, chief.
I never said I gave up. Like Boozer, and Arta, I am trying to be realistic. I can't stand the every growing over optimism that so many people have towards the Cubs. Gorzelanny or Silva or Marshall or Mr. Notre Dame are not going to make anyone comfortable when they start. Mr. Notre Dame has 2 pitches, and is supposedly working on a 3rd. If he doesn't, he will get DESTROYED> You can't face major league hitters 2-3 times a game with 2 pitches. It's not happening....unless you have a ridiculous change up like Harden did.
However, all the 5th starter has to do, is give you a chance to win, and try to eat up some innings. Lets all remember, that Lilly is not coming back til probably May...so 2 of the above listed will get 2 starts a week. Throw in Zambrano's jeckyl/hyde performances and you could have a taxed bullpen by Memorial day....
I am trying to be realistic here. I don't look at this team and try to make a case that guys like Jeff Baker or Mike Fontenot in a platoon can put up Brandon Phillips numbers...>Come on.....What's next? You going to tell me that Kevin Millar and Micah Hoffpauir could put up Pujols numbers in a platoon if Lee goes down?
This Cubs team has a TON of holes. They aren't a 90 win team unless they get a TON of things to go their way. When I listen to hendry and all he's spewing is about how great this hitting coach is....I get nervous. I heard it today on the score...again. That tells me 2 things:
1. He didn't make any major move that he's proud of this offseason in terms of player personnel. For a team that won 83 games last year, that's NOT what I want from a major market team. Did they improve on the field? I don't think that they did. He's expecting a LOT of bounce back years...that's a big gamble to take for a team with aging stars, and guys who have had success in limited samples.
2. He is expecting a LOT of guys to have huge years all at the same time. It can happen, as the 1998 Cubs showed, but it's not likely.
Yes, Ramirez getting hurt isn't likely again. He's going to put up his usual numbers so he can opt out of his contract again, and get a nice fat pay day. Lee SHOULD have a monster season due to his impending fee agency.
Soriano? Who knows? the guy has been hurt since coming here, and now is regulated to the 6th hole. A spot where historically he's stunk. So I think a .260ish average is in store. Plus, if you are a pitcher, are you going to give him any fast balls? Who is going to be Soriano's protection? Soto? Well if that's the case, Soto better have a HUGE year, or else Soriano better learn patience because they will roll the ball up to the plate....
I'm not going to keep on beating the same dead horse, but if the national media all are projecting a mediocre team, maybe there is something to it.
I just don't want to have to come on this board in mid June, when all you rose colored guys are complaining about how bad this team is, and say "I told you so..."
I'm hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.
Lilly may be ready prior to May 1, or he may not. Regardless, if you'll have a look at the schedule in April with all of the days off, and then account for a couple of "weather days", YOU tell me how many starts the Cubs' fifth starter would make before a Lilly return? MAYBE............ two? And if Lilly is ready ten days sooner, maybe the appointed "fifth starter" doesn't start a single game.
Now that I think about it, and while I don't think it will happen, what would be wrong with seeing Mr. Notre Dame chucking 95mph fastballs and 87mph sliders for six innings on a windy, 38-degree Wrigley afternoon in April?
You arguments are ridiculous.
Jeff Baker and Mike Fontenot already have put up as good of numbers(offensively) as Brandon Phillips did last year. You combine Baker last year vs LH, and Fontenot 2008 vs RH and you have as good of an offensive player to Phillips. The platoon should be productive.
Specifically on Fontenot, he was unlucky last year(.281 BABIP). Every projection I have seen puts him at better numbers this year(Bill James, Chone, Fangraphs), right at a .750 OPS. I would expect the same for Baker. When you figure in they are probably going to be platooning and their splits should be better, that is a decent combo, offensively at least.
Yet you compare it to Baker/Fontenot to Millar/Hoffpauir. No one said that, and they have never put up numbers similar to Pujols. And no one expects them to do so.
When you exaggerate your arguments to make a point, he defeats the whole purpose of the post.
Today....I'll give you what I would consider average years for guys, where do you see this team at after 162 games?
Career averages....not pipe dreams.
81 is about as realistic as it gets......
ok, in 2009, Aramis Ramirez missed 50 plus games, Soriano was injured almost all year, Fukudome was playing out of position, Fontenot had a terrible year, and so did Soto. Zambrano had a below average year, as did Marmol. All that being said, the team won 83 games.
So, if Ramirez plays 140 healthy games(2 wins), Soriano is healthy(3 wins), Fukudome is in RF, Byrd replaces Bradley (1 win total), Fontenot plays average, Soto plays average(2 wins total), Zambrano is back to normal 15 wins, Marmol is back to lights out. Lilly is likely to miss 2 - 4 starts, so lets say he wins 13- 14 games, and whoever replaces him wins half his starts, The biggest question is who replaces Hardens innings. Can the Cubs come up with someone who pitches comparably or better than Harden did last year? 26 starts, 140 innings of 4.00 ERA ball?
If they do, and the Cubs get average production from everyone else, and maybe 1 or 2 people with better than average years(any team that wins needs this), I would think this team is capable of winning 90 - 93 games.
The 2008 team had career averages. Nobody overacheived and they won 97 games. 6 out of the same 8 position players that started that year will be your 2010 opening day starters. Basically the same squad with a couple of key additions. It's not rocket science man.
Soto: 285/364/504, 23 hr's
DeRosa: 285/376/481, 21 hr's
Edmonds: 937 ops in 237 at bats
Fontenot 909 ops in 236 at bats
Theriot's best season at 307 avg and 387 obp
Dempster 2.96 ERA
Wood didn't walk anything near his career rate.
ditto
Thank you....I was waiting for somebody to pull the stats out.
Lots of people are just looking at this team and trying to build up the hype.
They can win 81 games right now...on average years. If Soto, Soriano, Ramirez, Lilly, Zambrano, Lee, and Dempster all have above average years....They can probably win high 80s....That's a LOT of ifs, and assuming everyone stays remotely healthy.
If I knew some of these guys, I'd throw out some bets....I won $50 last year from a guy, after I was in Vegas in March and saw the over/under for the Cubs at 95....
is that Carlos Silva's role will be to come into the 15th inning and lose the game.
I have no expectatin that Silva will be a productive player for the Cubs.
I hope he is but I don't expect him to be so, if that makes any sense.
If Soriano's 2010 looks anything lie his 2009: BIG ADVANTAGE REDS. No matter who plays LF.
If Soto's 2010.........
If Soriano's 2010 looks anything like his 2009, then Nady will be in LF.
If Soto's 2010 looks anything like his 2009, I will eat my Cubs hat. You have stated(correctly) before he was one of the unluckiest hitters in the league. Plus he was fat and out of shape. Odds are tremendous that he will be better.
This should be fun in the arbitration hearing. All of the stats sites say Theriot grades out average to slightly above average as a defensive shortstop, whether you look at fangraphs or baseball-reference or John Dewan. He's a plus player as far as UZR and UZR/150 go, even though the eyes may tell you differently. He makes the routine play, which to me, is far more important than making the flashy play. Will the "stats" people use the stats in evaluating Theriot or will they be "scouts" and go by what they "see."
Good debate here.
I can just recall a LOT of plays where Theriot would cleanly field the ball, and by the time the ball got there, the plays were closer then they should have been. Same on DPs. He doesn't have that SS arm. Cedeno had it, but couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, in relation to hitting.
Theriot is a scrappy guy, and I like him, but he's a 2nd baseman in SS clothing. I hope this prospect they have pans out at SS.
That's probably Theriot's ideal spot. Maybe Castro can make that happen.
Actually, Theriot's ideal spot is probably as utility middle infielder, but that won't happen with the Cubs. I think Darwin Barney can do everything that Theriot is doing now for less money. From most reports, they are almost identical type of players.
Hopefully, Lee & Castro will be the middle infield and 1,2 batters for many years.
So on Phillips, you just disregard OPS and on base percentage. If Baker plays anywhere near like what he did last year, he will be much better offensively. I don't know why you say you can't use a platoon evaluation when it is clear that is what the Cubs will run out there. To evaluate it any other way would be stupid.
Sure, Rolen is still a better fielder, but the gap has narrowed, and Ramirez is so much better offensively, it is not close.
I believe Theriot was actually pretty good by fielding stats. I agree it is probably a wash, but if you are going to pick one or the other, it has to be Theriot that is going to be better.
I didn't make the argument that Theriot is going to get better. He WAS better in 2008. Considerably better. Last year was an off year, by most accounts (actually, he is developing a pattern of every other year being good one year, mediocre the next). Don't try to use that as for justifying picking Bruce (who by all accounts has great talent) over Fukudome/Nady. You can't do it by anything other than a gut feeling. I made a point to say that if Bruce has a breakout year, this could swing the Reds way. But surely you don't expect him to go from hitting .223 to hitting .323. That is a bit of a stretch.
Hernandez is 35. 35 year old catchers DON'T get better. They decline, almost invariably. And his career numbers are marginally better than Soto last year, so we are talking minimal difference at best. I can't imagine anyone in the world choosing Hernandez over Soto.
Harang was not only down last year, but also the year before. Ks/9 have dropped, BB/9 have gone up, each of the last 2 years.
Arroyo had his best year since 2005. His years in between have not even been close. I don't imagine he will repeat those numbers. If I had to bet, he was very lucky on BABIP.
I think if everyone is healthy, we will push the Cardinals. Might even beat them with a little luck, or a good trade at the deadline. I think the Cardinals are pretty much just like the Cubs, they need everything to go right, for them to win the division(i.e. Carpenter, Wainright, Pujols, Holiday all must remain healthy), Rasmus must be at least as good as last year(I think he will be slightly better), Ludwick needs to produce(I think he will probably regress, or miss time with injury), Frese needs to produce at 3rd base, Ryan needs to play similar to last year(He just had wrist surgery, we will see), and the bullpen needs to pitch like it did in the first half, not the 2nd half. If Franklin pitches like he did in September and October, then all bets are off.
I got him going: 270/347/498, 845 ops, 37 hr's!!!!!
(fangraphs has a fun little player projections function)
Ok. We disagree on Phillips. You'll never convince me that Baker should be in the same conversation as Phillips. Fontenot sucks. He was given a chance last year, after he did well pinch hitting and spelling guys in 2008, and imploded. Phillips is a guy who hits .280, drives in 80 runs, hits at least 20 homers, and steals at least 20-25 bases. Those are all on the low end. No way in gods green earth, the Cubs get that from those two goofs. Jeff Baker was released for a reason.
I am cynical at this point, as the Cubs really dont' have a team for me to get exited for. I hope for the best, but I see way too many holes. Lets just put it this way: This Cubs need a LOT more to go right, then the Cardinals do.
Cardinals still have the best pitching coach in baseball, and arguably the best manager in the game. They have the best player in Pujols, a ridiculous wing-man in Holliday,and 2 starters who could be #1s on almost any team in the NL The Cubs, IMO, don't even have a #1 starter.
IF, and that's a HUGE if, the Cubs get HUGE years out of: Soriano, Soto, Lee, Ramirez, Dempster, and Zambrano....they could win the division.
I don't even think we disagree. I believe I gave the Reds the advantage over the Cubs at 2nd base, basically for all the reasons you stated. But I think you are over-rating Phillips. He is not an elite player. He is slightly above average. If Baker can hit like he did last year, even with being average or below average on defense, he would be nearly as good as Phillips. If Fontenot bounces back(I will remind you that Brandon Phillips also struggled the first time he was given a job), the Cubs could just about even this up.
I agree about Theriot. He drives me nuts actually. He doesn't maintain a smart approach at the plate. He swings in counts when he should be taking pitches. I like his opposite field approach, but he really should be taking many more pitches and walks. Theriot is one of the best arguments in my opinion for fielding sabermetric stats being wrong. I just don't see him having above average range, but whatever. Thats another argment for another time.
I don't think the Cubs need huge years out of all of those guys. They need a huge year from 2 pitchers, 1 or 2 batters, and solid years out of the rest. And no major injury.
yeah, I may be over estimating Phillips. For such a low OBP, he doesn't K much. I mean he k'd 70+ times, and had a ton of power.....and then you have Kosuke who has a high OBP, but has no power and looks overmatched on a lot on his Ks. I value OBP, but I also value guys who put the ball in play. I'll take productive outs all day long.....
We are one in the same on Theriot. Guy drives me nuts. He took some pitches early in 2007, slapped balls to right, yet still pulled enough balls down the LF line to keep defenses honest. Then he starts swinging at 3-1 pitches against Arizona in the playoffs, and I lost it. Game 3 especially.
I know Piniella had him "drive the ball" and it's great at times, but theriot needs to realize that he needs to go back to working the count, slapping balls to right, and driving the ball when he can. Pick and choose. If the Cubs have to rely on Theriot to hit homers, they are in deep trouble.
His fielding makes me cringe. I know he makes the routine play, but any play deep in the hole, is a rainbow to first. It's crazy. I agree....no way he's got above average range.
..we're all glad that talk about Fonzie in the leadoff spot is not even a topic for discussion any longer. 6th spot. Please put him in the 6th spot.
That's where he will be. Check that one off the list of questions for Lou next week.
Yeah, right, Jim.
The 2004 team was Exhibit A of horrible chemistry, crybaby lunatics running the asylum, the manager letting it happen, Jim presiding over it all, culminating in a terrible, memorable final-week choke.
Jim's selective memory and spin jobs have gotten more than old.
Read "Cubs Nation" Not a huge fan of Mean Gene, but that book had some good insight regarding that team.
To this day, I still contend that they were the MOST talented team in my lifetime. I lost a lot of friends to the Sox after that year. People just absolutely hated those guys. In some ways, I guess they got what they deserved.