Castro, Crane and other Cubs stuff
From this distance, it looked like a pretty busy day in Arizona, where Starlin Castro went 2-for-3 with a homer, 2 RBI and 3 runs as the Cubs beat the Padres 8-7. Castro is 8-for-14 (.571) on the spring, but the Cubs appear to be sticking by their story that he’ll open at Class AAA Iowa.
As long as we’re on prospects, I wanted to point out that Baseball Prospectus ranks the Cubs’ farm system eighth in the big leagues, up from 26 last year:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10183
Author Kevin Goldstein termed last year’s first-round pick, Brett Jackson, a “steal.” However, Goldstein doesn’t seem to buy all the Castro hype: “…while I don’t see the true star potential in Starlin Castro that others do, it’s reasonable to expect good performances from (3B) Josh Vitters and (SS) Hak-Ju Lee.”
We can talk more about this in the coming days.
Speaking of prospects, Tyler Colvin was 2-for-4 today and is batting .533 (8-for-15) with a homer. He’ll push big time for a backup outfield spot. Reliever Jeff Stevens appears to be having a rough go. He’s allowed 4 hits and 8 runs (4 earned) in 2.1 innings.
In other stuff:
--Team president Crane Kenney met with the reporters who are in Arizona and gave his state of the state. He issued this statement on the so-called Cubs tax that’s being talked about to fund the new spring-training home: “The Cubs support the efforts of the legislators to find a solution that will be satisfactory to everyone. As far as the Cubs are concerned, all financing options are still on the table.”
It was reported earlier in the day that the Cubs seemed no longer to support the tax in Arizona, but it’s clearly the table. Thanks to my colleague Carrie Muskat of cubs.com for passing along that statement.
--According to reports, the Cubs are expected to name their preferred spring-training site in two weeks. I’ll be back down there for that announcement.
--As far as manager Lou Piniella goes, Crane told reporters: "If he feels well and wants to keep going, we'll have an interesting conversation.” Wish I could have read the body language on that one. Lou told reporters it’s too early to talk about managing beyond 2010. "I'm perfectly comfortable the way the situation is,” Lou said. “I'm going to do the best job I humanly can do. Whether I was signed here for one year or signed here for five years, there would be no difference. My job is to get this team to win, and that's exactly what I'm going to focus on and nothing more."
--Crane told reporters the Cubs should have the funds to make a trade by the July 31 deadline. We’ll see how that pans out.
--Carlos Silva righted things a bit today, throwing 3 scoreless innings and giving up 4 hits. He’s 1-1 with a 10.80 ERA.
Unless Castro is a difference maker that can make the Cubs a serious contender send him to the minors so he can get more experience. We've been to this movie before with Patterson and Pie. Give the kid more time to develop. I think we're looking at a youth movement coming maybe as soon as next year. I think the window has closed for this group. I hope I'm wrong but I see this years team a .500 team at best.
...but it is scary to me he is making comments about the future managers. He also tends to put his foot in his mouth quite often.
I understand Ricketts taking a wait and see approach, but the most important move he can make to set the baseball organization up for future success is hire a solid "baseball" man to oversee all baseball operations.
Right now, they are structured like the McCaskey Bears, with no one in place who has the experience to determine whether the GM has things headed in the right direction.
Did the Derrick Lee or the Cubs comment on the contract extension that Todd Helton signed this week? It is reported the Rockies extended him for 2 more years total $10 million ($5 mil per year). I would think both the Cubs and Derrick Lee would be happy to do a similar contract.
My question...if the Cubs extend Lee, can the new contract agree to defer some of his money this year (is it about $15 mil?) into the final two years of the contract? The Cubs seem to have absolutely no payroll flexibility at the moment. Can they do something creative to gain a few million to work with?
Bruce, what percentage of players, would you estimate, wear protective foot gear in spring training games to help prevent injuries such as Lee just experienced? It sounds like he'll only be out for about a week, and it's only exhibition play, but it seems like the sort of injury that could be easily preventable. It's also an injury that could have been more severe and could have landed Lee on the DL when the season begins. Why don't players/teams exercise more precaution in the preseason games?
I'd say the percentage is pretty low. Guys get comfortable doing things a certain way. Some hitters don't like wearing the guards. It's hard to get people change old habits.
Not being in Arizona, I haven't had a chance to get any reaction. I'm not sure about deferring any of this year's money. Neither side seems to be in a hurry to discuss an extension.
It's conceivable the Cubs may look to start blowing things up after this season. Suppose the Cubs decide to let Lee and Lilly walk; suppose Aramis decides to opt out; suppose the Cubs decide to pick up half the cash and trade Fukudome with only 1 season left on his deal. Lot of ifs. But a lot of plausible ifs. In those circumstances I'd want Colvin to stay and battle for a RF or CF spot.
I recognize the Cubs need to get a relief pitcher or two, and you figure some trade will be imminent towards end of Spring. But I think it's best to hold onto Tyler.
Hoops
if they had hopes to use Colvin full time in 2011 then you keep him. No doubt about that. Like you said, a lot of things would have to happen. I don't see anyone taking Kosuke's contract and Byrd and Soriano aren't moving. If the Cubs moved Fukudome it better because they are going after Carl Crawford.
I've been trying to talk myself into believing that Soriano could play first base next year but I just can't see that happening. I'm not sure where Colvin fits.
Are they going to run into the same problem with Colvin that they could run into with Castro? I'd think they'd prefer Colvin playing every day in Iowa rather than pinch hitting twice a week in Chicago, no?
I suppose it's a good problem either way but with the outfield seemingly locked up with contracts through at least 2011, when Kosuke comes off the books, what the heck do they do with Colvin if he keeps hitting? Send him to Iowa to learn to play 1b, too?
You would think they would want him in AAA to get some consistent AB's but if he is the best guy you never know. He can play Left and Center very well. His arm might be a little weak for right but he certainly could do it in a pinch.
For me I would rather see him open in AAA and then get called up later if needed. The big thing here is that Fuld has to stay healthy which is a big question? he has a history of injury.
After thinking about it a bit more, with the OF locked up until after next season and Brett Jackson coming up probably in 2012, I think that ideally you'd trade Colvin. Of course, you'd need to do so when his value is at the highest, which would necessitate at-bats at the major league level. That's probably not going to happen.
Rather than have these young guys linger on the bench, or lose confidence in the minors, the Cubs need to take advantage of their age, potential and contract situation to line themselves up for trades.
Maybe you call San Diego and offer Marshall, Fontenot and Colvin for Heath Bell and someone cheap. Maybe you can get Scott Hairston, too.
If the plans are to rebuild from existing inventory and they have the prospects to legitimately do that, then Colvin, Castro, Jackson, Vitters, Cashner, Hak-Ju Lee, etc would be key parts of that.
Although these guys are blocked right now due to existing contracts, other than Soriano... they all run out within the next couple of years.
Wouldn't be a bad idea to plant these prospects in the minors for another season, let them work on their game and further develop their skills.... and start bringing them up when Sandberg replaces Lou.
It wouldn't be unreasonable to eat a part of Fukudome's contract (and the others later on) if he can be moved to a contender by the deadline for one or two solid prospects to keep the development assembly line going.
I believe he's the oldest of the group you've listed and he probably has the least potential of them, too. Some of the guys in the minors will need to be used to solidify clubs that have those youngsters on them, otherwise we'll end up with a 70-92 record at some point. I think we can all agree on that?
Everyone can stay in the minors this season but if Colvin is playing well enough that it looks like he might be an every day player or even start a few times a week in Chicago then he's probably the easiest to trade and will bring the biggest return.
I don't like trading prospects but I dislike watching them fade away on the bench even more. I detest seeing them run out of options and being traded to the AL.
so yeah, I'd trade him for pitching help I guess...
A strong spring and Colvin's value may never be higher. Package him with Marshall and Fontenot or Blanco, and see if the Padres will bite at a Heath Bell offer. Bell makes this Cubs team infinitely better, either as a closer or a set up guy for Marmol.
for the team to have to keep on answering the same questions over and over and over again. If Castro keeps hitting it probably becomes a daily question. How annoying. Hopefully they stick to the plan.