Off-day perspectives, and Prospectus
Today is the off-day in the spring schedule for the Cubs. What a day to be off: St. Patrick’s Day. When I’d cover a full spring, these “off” days invariably were never days off. Either Kerry Wood or Mark Prior would be throwing a simulated game (Lou calls them “assimilated games”). Last year, Rich Harden threw in a minor-league game on the off-day after recovering from illness. The ever inscrutable Harden never would quite tell you how he felt or what pitches he was throwing.
Anyway, tomorrow night (Thursday, March 18, 6-8:30 p.m.), I’ll be heading to downtown Chicago as a fan to catch the Baseball Prospectus book signing at the DePaul University Loop campus bookstore, 1 E. Jackson. My friends Christina Kahrl and Kevin Goldstein are scheduled to be there to talk baseball and hopefully sign a few copies of Baseball Prospectus 2010, a book I highly recommend. Maybe I’ll see one or two of you there.
Here are a few Cubs hitting lines from the spring:
--Colvin: .533/.533/.800 with 3 doubles, a triple, a homer and 6 RBI. He’s making a push.
--Castro: .435/.458/.739 with 2 doubles, a triple and a homer. You’ve got to figure it’s mission accomplished even if he does head to Iowa, as is expected. I hope he’s still in big-league by the time I get back down there next week. I'd like to see him in at least one game.
--Jim Adduci: We featured him a couple weeks ago as a guy whose dad played in the bigs. Young Jim is at .348/.400/.478 with 3 doubles. We may see him this year.
--Theriot: .565/.615/.652 with 2 doubles. A little competition is a good thing.
--Fontenot: .409/.440/.591 with a homer and 8 RBI. How important would it be for him to have a good season?
--Baker: .158/.238/.368. He’s hoping that spring stats are meaningless.
Carlos Marmol has pitched 4 innings, giving up 2 hits while walking two and striking out seven. Lefty James Russell, featured along with Adduci a couple weeks back, has pitched 5.2 innings, giving up 4 hits and 1 run, unearned. While everybody else has been talking about John Gaub as a lefty on the cusp, Russell may sneak in there while nobody’s looking. James' dad, Jeff, was a big-league closer.
Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, they have an interview with Tom Goodwin, who played with the Cubs in 2003-04 and was one of the “Lemons,” as the bench players called themselves in ’04. Goodwin is one of the nicest guys in the game, and he’s now working with Red Sox baserunners.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10283
BP asked him how he would describe 2003: “Hurt. Just hurt. Oh my goodness, we were right there, it just didn't happen for us, the team, or for the city _ there is all of that great Cubs mystique. But I still had a great time. It was one of the greatest years I had playing, although I went to the World Series the year before, with the Giants, which was probably my most memorable. The year with the Cubs was outstanding, though. The guys really came together and Dusty (Baker) did a great job of bringing us together. It just wasn't meant to be. We were five outs away. Five outs away.”
On playing alongside Barry Bonds in San Francisco and Sammy Sosa in Chicago, Goody told BP: “I had a great time with them. Sammy worked as hard as anybody when it came to his defensive work, his offensive work, getting down to the cage, almost to the point where it seemed like it was too much. Barry was the same way, although for him it came a little more naturally because he had so much raw talent. But he still worked hard in the cage and to get himself in shape for a full 162-game season. Both of them of them were set in their ways. Sammy wanted to be liked by everybody, while Barry didn't care what anybody thought.”
Enjoy
Hey Bruce,
Wish you were down there for firsthand reporting, but hey, at least no towel drills to report on. So there IS that..........
Bruce, Just got done reading the Fukudome article. Very good.
It looks as if our OF defense should be considerably improved this year. In terms of runs allowed change from last year, we could go from an injured Soriano in LF(-10.8 runs by UZR) to a healthy Soriano in LF (hopefully will be improved), from Bradleys (-4.1) to Kosuke's (17.9) in right field and from Kosuke's (-20.3) in center to Byrd's (-2.3) in center. That is at least an improvement of 40 runs over the season, without Soriano improving at all (Soriano has been positive the past 3 years in LF when healthy). By sabermetric standards, that is pretty important. If you figure projected win % as runs scored squared/ runs allowed squared + runs allowed squared(I think this is right), then the Cubs figuring runs scored as constant (707) and decreasing runs allowed by 40 (672 to 632), that should translate into about a .600 winning percentage. This method would have predicted the Cubs for a .525 win percentage this year and they actually had a .516 win percentage. The Cardinals had a .571 win percentage. Of course, this doesn't really factor in luck, or player performance fluctuation, etc, but it can give you a general idea of what could be expected based solely on the improvement of the defense in the OF.
Hopefully our pitching won't be 40 runs worse, and hopefully our offense will be several runs better.
One year data is way too small and way too variable.
It should improve, no doubt, but doubtful by 40 runs.
that we will be 40 runs better. I am saying our defense should be around 40 runs better. Whether we actually allow 40 fewer runs will depend upon the pitching staff.
From my understanding of UZR, that is exactly what this would mean, provided that the players perform to the same approximate level defensively, which they should if healthy.
spring training walk rates would have to be right there. Has alot to do with facing pitchers who are working on certain pitches, pitchers who are featuring mainly fastballs early, pitchers who won't be in the majors and are throwing fat pitches. I have always heard it said with regards to players from the Dominican and Puerto Rico, "you can't walk your way off the island". I figure that it is the same in the spring. You can't walk your way from the minors to the bigs.
I would guess that the walk totals of the minor league affiliates is a substantially more important stat when determining the future of the Cubs. Hopefully that will be something that the Ricketts stress to the developmental people within the organization.
1) When will the BP folks be over there and which book is it they release? I'm back to being poor so I let my subscription run out. I may stop by after hitting some golf balls off Diversey.
2) the numbers you post. Look at the avg/obp. what is there a combined 7 walks out of all those guys?
another poster on a different board made a post about the organizational failure of taking a walk. EACH of the top 4 level minor league teams were either dead last, or bottom 2 in walks. ALL OF THEM!!!!!
That's just not good and terrible failure on a organizational level if you ask me.
Which you didn't :)
I've added to the original post that it's from 6-8:30 p.m. and they'll be signing the 2010 Baseball Prospectus.
Millar 7; Soto 4; Fukudome 4; Theriot 3; Snyder 3; Hoffpauir, Adduci, Fuld, Baker, Tracy, Barney and Chirinos have 2 apiece; Castro, LaHair, Scales, Nady and Lee have 1 each; Soriano (no surprise), Colvin, Vitters and Robinson check in at zero walks.
When I get back down there, maybe I can ask Rudy about this.
and probably more at bats than anyone else....
Added him. He has 30 at-bats, the team leader by 5 ABs.