What if it works?
MILWAUKEE _ A crazy thought came across my mind (one of many, of course) after Carlos Zambrano's successful relief appearance last night: What if the damned thing works? What if this idea that seems so nuts actually helps the Cubs?
Up and down the organization, from front office to manager to coaches, the Cubs seem to think it will work, or at least that it can work. Then another thought came across, and that was: Say what you will about manager Lou Piniella, he's not afraid to think outside the box. And here is a manager who's been in the game all his adult life and one who operates in a sport so bound to "conventional wisdom" that most changes are made reluctantly.
"I think you better think out of the box here at times," Lou said. "I think out-of-the-box is a good thing. Look, things change. Sometimes you leave spring training one way, and all of a sudden, something happens, and you have to adjust to it, whether it's pitching, whether it's positions, whether it's bench. Things change, and they never stay the same for 162 games. Unless you're awfully good or you're awfully deep, you better be able to think out of the box at times because if you don't, you're going to get beat up."
Speaking of Zambrano, Lou says he's not available today and that he won't use Z back to back until he gets 3 for 4 appearances.
Big Z didn't wish to talk last night or this morning. I asked Lou if it would take some time for Carlos to accept the idea.
"I don't know," Lou said. "I've said that I'm appreciative that he's doing this for us. It's best for our baseball team. As long as he goes out there and he gives us his best effort, that's all we can expect."
One of the most telling quotes from last night came after the question was raised whether this move could solve a lot of problems for the Cubs.
"No question," Lou said. "Come on. Our bullpen was really too young. And then we had the injury to Guzman and the injury to Caridad on top of that. We had to shore it up, and we felt that Carlos was the guy to do it, and I'm convinced that he will do it, yes."
Color me still skeptical, but who knows?
Sorry the delay in blogging today. We had a long pregame today, and the Internet here at Miller Park got quirky.
As I write this, Tyler Colvin has a 2-run double and a solo homer.
Enjoy.
PH'ing Koyie Hill for Soto to sac bunt after a reliever BB's a hitter on 4 pitches has to be the most illogical thing I've ever seen. Giving up an out before making the reliever throw strikes is absurd, not to mention benching Soto (best eye on the team, arguably) plus power is simply piss poor management on Lou's part. Care to ask him about that one, Bruce?
"Soto hadn't bunted. So we sent Hill up there. He laid it down. Just too hard. Too hard."
It sounds like the decision to bunt in that situation wasn't second guessed at all. Personally, I'd just prefer to send Soto up there and let him hit, as saber research has shown that sac bunting needs to be done less than it is, and in specific situations. Thanks again for asking that question Bruce.
I am not talking about tonights game, but in general. The offense looks very good, so does the starting pitching, the bench, and the closer. If Zambrano can help the bullpen until Hendry can add someone solid, I see no reason why the Cubs can't contend.
1. Byrd is playing very well and is a better player offensively and defensively than most would have imaginedd.
2. Silva and Gorzelanny are pitching very well. Hendry probably got lucky on Silva, but who knows. And he may very well revert to previous form, but for now, looks like a steal.
3. Colvin has been better than anyone could have imagined.
4. Soto looks like a potential All Star again.
5. Soriano looks to be proving that his decline last year was based on injuries, not age.
If Ramirez and Lee ever get on a tear (as you would suspect they would), this team could be very scary offensively. If Castro keeps it up, and the Cubs can move Theriot to second base, this offense might be unbelievable.
I'm fine with the job Baker's doing.
It's April....lets not get too excited.
If they all are still performing at this clip by mid June....Ok.
it won't have been the right decision. There's probably a less than 5% chance that this works out. Positive results of a decision do not justify a poor decision making process. If I drain my bank account this afternoon, roll down to Atlantic City and bet the whole thing on a Blackjack table, I just might walk away with a lot more money. But even in the slim chance that it works, it was in no way a good decision.
-Nate
If you are telling me that this move gives the Cubs a 5% chance of winning the World Series this year - I love those odds! The Cubs can afford to go for broke because regardless of their record this year, their record (unlike your back account after the Atlantic City spree) goes back to .500 in April 2011.
At least Piniella can admit what everyone else saw with this bullpen....TOO YOUNG. Somebody should post that in Hendry's office, the next time he tries to sell the fans crap about the false hopes of this team.
Not sure, how 1-1/3, 2 H, 1 Er, 1 bb is considered good for Z, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
Bruce, I have to say that I don't think Hendry did all that well in getting someone gone. The fiscal restraints of the Ricketts are far different than those of the Trib Yes, they unloaded Bradley, but at what expense? No money to get Capps due to the long process of finding a taker If it were as easy as getting rid of someone as you and "BOOZER???" say, then I wouldn't worry But the weights that are Soriano and Zambrano are going to weigh heavily for the next 4+ seasons As for the blogger who said Soriano is better than Colvin: Have you been watching the same games as I have? Really? Better? Not by a long shot. Stunted growth is what you get having a player have to sit behind an overpaid "star" Ricketts and their debt laden purchase are never going to allow Hendry to dump THAT error In Detroit Illitch allowed Dombrowski, arguably one of the best GM's to dump 3 of his expensive mistakes for the betterment of the team Doubt that we will see that with Tom and company
people were "trade Derrek Lee and start Michah Hoffpauir".
Why? cuz they were fooled by a small sample size.
So far the same is happening with Carlos Silva and Ty Colvin. He couldn't even put up these good numbers in AA. It's going to take a heck of a lot more than 33 at bats to see what kind of a player he is.
Maybe after 300 we'll have an idea. but even then you have to take it with a grain of salt.
Jason Heyward isn’t the only rookie outfielder impressing people.
While Heyward has had the big play moments, Tyler Colvin has been tearing the cover off the ball up in Chicago. Since he had never played above Double-A and showed an aggressive approach in the minors last year, many assumed that major league pitchers would eat him alive. So far, though, he’s been crushing every fastball he sees, hitting .333/.405/.697 in 38 trips to the plate. Six of his 11 hits have gone for extra bases, and he’s already drawn four walks, 25 percent of his Double-A total from last year.
In fact, Colvin’s wFB/C (runs above average per 100 fastballs seen) is second highest in baseball, behind only Ryan Braun. He’s been below average against soft stuff, so don’t be surprised if pitchers start feeding him a steady diet of breaking balls in the near future. His minor league track record suggests that he’ll have trouble making the adjustment when they do, but there are few doubts left that Colvin can hit a big league fastball.
You've gotta love these guys who wet themselves over the Hoffpauirs and Colvins. Let's wait and see on Colvin until he's been around the league, and scouts and pitchers have made their adjustments on him. Once they figured out Hoffpauir, his BA dropped seventy points and his K's spiked. Until then, I stand by my previous statement that Soriano is the better major league player.
Colvin doesn't hit breaking pitches as well. Hmm, imagine that. Him and just about every other player in the big leagues....probably including Ryan Braun. Sounds terrible til you look at it in that light huh?
The fact is this. When you are ahead in the count you get fastballs. When you are behind in the count, you get breaking balls. Almost everyone is going to hit for a lower average under those circumstances. Not everyone, but almost.
You know he is playing good when some has to pull up a stat like runs against fastballs and runs against breaking balls to criticize him.
he's going good, the pitchers haven't made the adjustments yet.
Look at his minor league numbers. That's all you have to do.
While I'm not the biggest fan of Colvin, I think his second half at West Tennessee last year is a bigger indicator of his ability and should be given more weight than his previous seasons.
Bruce
With so much talk about Big Z in the pen, I'm more concerned with the way lefties Marshall and Grabow are throwing. Marshall started out great and many thought him a candidate for the starting rotation. But lately, he has fallen in love with the big curve (see Rich Hill) and is fooling no one. Grabow has pretty much sucked all season. I can't see Lou's love affair with him.
The best lefty reliever on the Cubs right now is Russell. Can he keep it up?
Marshall gave up a bunt single and had a called third strike the other night. I'm sure they've looked at pitching patterns. Grabow? Who knows? Not sure what they'll do with Russell when Caridad comes off the DL but Russell has done well enough.
Bruce-
Over the course of his career, if Grabow has started poorly or strong, how has that influenced the rest of his season? I'm just wondering if he's a slow starter and tends to pick it up as the season goes on or if the kind of start he gets off to pretty much tells you what kind of season he's going to have.
Thanks!
Bruce - good to see you have an open mind on this subject. I know you have been against the move from the beginning. But as we blogged orginally, I think this is a good move considering the current make up of the roster.
The good thing that has happened over the weekend is that the run production has picked up. Colvin is in a groove right now, Lee is picking it up, and I have to believe the A-Ram will turn it around soon. Consistent run production will be the key to the remainder of the season.
Now let's see if they can take this momentum and win the series against Washington and Arizona on the homestand.
It's the right move... for now.
Cubs were blowing games because of the bullpen. It was glaring and a change to address the problem had to be made. Trades at this time are difficult.
The starting rotation is a strength and currently has the depth to allocate someone to the bullpen. The best in-house candidates to succeed are Zambrano or Dempster. While Silva or Gorzelanny are the obvious guys to move to the bullpen, they both are doing well in the starting role. Their transition to the bullpen is less reliable. Furthermore, the best solution of this mess is to build up their trade value and move them for bullpen help.
This is a bold and smart move to fix things temporarily until they restructure. Now, if moving Z to the bullpen was the longterm solution, then this move becomes a lot less smart.
They should also sell high on Theriot this year. Moving him to 2nd is a waste of his value.
I know I am not the only one who has thought of it but I haven't seen the question put to either yourself, or anyone on television Could this all be a ploy to get Zambrano to waive his no trade clause? I suspicion it is I also think benching Soriano full time is coming if he falls to a .260ish avg and continues his error prone ways I think a bucket of baseballs and the Cubs paying say $4 million a year ought to get Soriano out of here, Unless the Steinbrenner brothers are foolish enough to want him. Then you can get 2 buckets of baseballs and pay nothing Thoughts?
Teams don't work like that. Who would ever want to sign a contract to be a Cub if the organization plots against players?
Really? I think you are sadly mistaken if you don't think a team benches a player or changes his role to get the player to accede to their needs The payroll is bloated, and the Ricketts have shown themselves to not have the money to afford bloated underperforming contracts. Fans constantly over rate the players feelings If the feelings were the only thing that came into play Yankee stadium would have been empty with Steinbrenner's castigating players relentlessly in the 80's and 90's Players want other players who, I dunno, EARN their $19 million a year.
If the Cubs want you gone, you're gone, whether you have a no-trade or not. See Sammy Sosa and Milton Bradley. Hendry is an upfront general manager, and each player knows where he stands. If the Cubs were to do this to make a player mad enough to waive his no-trade, not only would they look foolish, but why would other players want to come here knowing that management can turn on you at its whim?
It has nothing to do with "feelings".
Maybe if the player isn't deserving of a starting spot. If they are the best option and the team is trying to win a division, they are NOT going to risk wins in an attempt to piss someone off enough to waive a NTC
So explain to me why then, Soriano starts over Colvin? If money doesn't play into this? Colvin would have had a shot at Rookie of The Year But again the Cubs will stunt a players growth. Short sighted Again.
Soriano is better than Colvin.
Soriano starts over Colvin, because he is a better baseball player. It's that simple.
I would normally say that time will tell in a battle between these two, but that would be true only in an organization that doesnt stifle and stunt its stars vs veterans who have seen there best years fly past them. Collin gives you the anticipation you felt a few tears ago with sorio but with a tremondously better glove.Another factor that goes to the kid...baseball IQ. Which on the field transfers as more RBI's,less errors, more team player attitude.Also a innate knowledge of the strike zone that does not to be radically adjusted and contorted according to the starting pitcher
what a bunch of nonsense
well,i have seen enough of Tyler Colvin to push Lou on getting him much more playing time . This definitely means that colvin finishes any games in left field for sorio. Colvin's defense reminds me of a old cubby favorite named Rick Monday.His swing is fluid and explosive. An outfield of Byrd, Fuko, and Colvin gives the Cubs the best to chance to win NOW.
This is the best approach he's had at the plate in his career. Colvin playing 2-3 times a week is probably for the best. Stick him in against back end starters, get a little success under his belt. He'd likely be exposed playing everyday. Cubs have a good thing going with their outfield.
If you define "work" as making the bullpen better, there is no doubt that this will "work".
but that ignores the rotation. it comes down to Silva. He has to be good enough to stay in the rotation. if he isn't, then its a mistake. I have no doubt this is going to end up a mistake.
I'm still not convinced on the whole thing. But we had a rollicking good discussion with Lou this morning. I covered a little of it here, and we'll have more online and in the paper later. Makes for good discussion.
I think it's likely that this is a move that helps the Cubs this season but from an organizational and long term perspective, it's a failure. That's what bothers me. For too long this organization has taken a myopic view of what they are doing and it harms the club in the long run. I can be happy for the team this season but still fear for the organization in the future.
I have to admit, Colvin has looked really good this weekend but I'll wait to jump on the bandwagon until he makes two rounds around the NL.
..and still am to a certain extent, but given the way the other starters have performed, this could really solidify the bullpen.
...I've had several private chats with people up and down this organization, and they seem to be united in thinking this could work. It might not, but they all seem to think it's worth a shot. It really has changed the dynamic of things.
If the organization is united in thinking this is a good idea that is worth a shot, then this organization is not one worth rooting for.
Bruce - it's pretty clear that Cashner will be up eventually as well if he keeps on destroying AA. Do you think Lou has the creativity to go back to a 70s style bullpen with 8 guys who have the stamina to start? Use 5 of them as starters, and the other 3 (Z/Silva, Marshall, Cashner) as guys who can rotate and each pitch 2 1/3-3 innings one day per series, with Marmol coming in for the 9th if necessary?
It would be fantastic if Lou could destroy the myth of the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings each being "assigned" to somebody because of contract negotations and financial considerations.
Lou was asked about the money implications:
"They're high-paid players because they've had a lot of success. I recognize that. But the payroll of the team doesn't change one way or another if you use them in one way or another. The payroll stays the same. They should pay the manager more for doing these things."
I don't know if he go as far as you suggest, but I wouldn't put anything past him at this point.
I appreciate the input.
--Bruce
The payroll of the team may not change but the value of the player or his contract does change. That's not necessarily something Lou should concern him with at this level.
I'll share a nice bottle of wine with my wife but when my friends come over they get lite beer because I'm not ruining the value of the wine because they drink like fish.
...You could buy cheap wine. Yellow Tail is pretty good and Barefoot gets high marks. Just sayin'.
We get that stuff when the in-laws come over.....