Marmol ridiculous; Theriot not so much
I arrived at Wrigley Field in good time to start my stats work. I'm not sure whether Cubs pitcher Ryan Dempster reads fangraphs and the other stat sites, but he knows what he sees. In fact, Demp was really onto something last night when it comes to Cubs closer Carlos Marmol.
"If you look at his strikeout numbers to innings pitched, hits to innings pitched...he'll go through a stretch every once in awhile where he walks some guys. But even if he walks somebody, he ends up striking other guys out," Demp said. "He's got a lot of confidence. He's got a good game plan out there. He's starting to get some command, which can make things really scary. He's starting to get that fastball down and away, and he's got as good a slider as I've ever seen and as anybody in the league has right now."
Marmol is even better than that. In fact, he's on record-pace better than that. Here's a doff of the chapeau to my stats buddy, Len Kasper, for pointing me to Joe Sheehan's piece in the Wall Street Journal about Marmol and his strikeouts-to-batters-faced, which is on major-league record pace.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870402620457526662387884625...
Through last night's game, Marmol had faced 99 batters, striking out 46 of them. That means he has struck out 46.4 percent of the batters he's faced. For a whole season, that would be a major-league record. The existing mark was set in 2003 by Eric Gagne, who struck out 44.8 percent (137 of 306) of the batters he faced.
For the season, Marmol has pitched 23.2 innings, striking out 46 batters. That's 17.49 per 9 innings. His record is 1-0 with a 1.52 ERA, and he has his WHIP down to a tidy 1.14.
On the other side of the stats, Ryan Theriot is in a bad way. For the season, The Riot has a line of .297/.325/.330 for an OPS of .654. It's even worse in May, at .250/.267/.262 for an OPS of .529. Theriot has 1 walk and 9 strikeouts this month, that walk coming on May 1.
His isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average, measuring extra-basehit ability) is only .032. Last year, the ISO was .085 (thanks to his little power surge), and in 2008, it was .052. Theriot's weighted on-base (wOBA) is .300, and his wins above replacement player (WAR) currently sits at 0.1.
I brought the walks up to Lou in the pregame session and he seemed a little flummoxed, but it got him to thinking. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see Theriot hitting eighth tomorrow. Lou’s done that in the past to get him out of slumps, usually with good results.
Lineup
Fukudome, RF
Theriot, 2B
Lee, 1B
Soriano, LF
Colvin, CF
Fontenot, 3B
Castro, SS
Hill, C
Gorzelanny, P
I suggested in yesterday’s paper that Castro should bat second. On his own, Lou brought up that the Cubs are 7-0 when that happens. As far as third base goes, Lou says Aramis Ramirez will take some flip drills tomorrow to see how the left hand is coming along. The swelling is down, according to Lou.
Kind of quiet in the minors yesterday. Casey Coleman pitched 6 innings, giving up 5 hits and 2 runs for Iowa as he won to improve to 5-3 with a 3.36 ERA. At Daytona (A) Brooks Raley also went 6 innings getting a victory. He gave up 6 hits and 2 runs. Raley is 2-3 with a 4.69 ERA. At Peoria (A), Trey McNutt went to 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in a 2-0 win over Cedar Rapids. McNutt worked 5 innings, giving up 2 hits.
Let’s keep the rain away tonight. Enjoy.
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Maybe the Commis ought to be investigating where Piniella is laying his wagers! I mean how else, other than his dementia, can his lineup be explained????
Theriot needs a day off with Jaramillo, but Fontenot sits against a RH starter.
Soriano is benched and Colvin, who has a great future with the Cubs sits, while Nady who has no future with the Cubs, plays.
Fukudome, who was hitting one point different than Theriot but with MUCH higher OBP is dropped to the 5 slot to "protect" Byrd, AND be the token LH bat in the lineup against the RH starter.
But don't worry, Piniella has it all covered.....
he's playing Castro and batting him 2nd. That "charm" will surely carry the Cubs to a win in stead of logic!!!!
should be to walk once every 2 games. That gives you roughly 80 walks on the season and almost guarantees that you are getting on base at a decent rate. If you can't remember the last time you took one, maybe you aren't doing your job.
Starting today for Iowa.....
Why?
to the fact that his leadoff man has not walked in 27 days. You would think someone, the bench coach, the hitting coach, someone might notice and call his attention to it.
Bruce, are all of the managers and coaches in baseball this indifferent and ignorant of statistics, or just the ones that we are lucky enough to have?
doesn't mean he is not in the know.
come on....
Most of the other papers aren't running that kind of information. It's pretty unfortunate that when Soriano had a .300 OBP at the top of the lineup or makes errors in the field, the boo's rain down. But when Theriot does the exact same, you don't hear any. I guess that's the vanity of fanhood.
sounds like I need to go back to grammar class.
unfortunately, fans still see the 297 batting average and think he's doing good.
The sad thing is it is not only the fans. It is Theriot and Lou. How can you be a leadoff man and not realize you haven't taken a walk in 27 days.
If this is true, he is too stupid to be a major league starter.
it was expected, and it was going to happen at some point this year (he pitched 120 innings last year when you include AFL ... at his current pace, he would've been near 100 by the end of June). I had really hoped they would give Cashner another month or starting. He's really developed into one of the better starting pitching prospects in the minors.
That said, this has always been the kitchen sink season, so this was a move that was expected.
Bruce, is it fair to expect Jay Jackson early June (avoiding Super Two possibility) and Cashner late June? Is that the probable outcome right now?
It depends on how well the rest of the bullpen pitches and the situation with the rotation, as well. The Cubs aren't taking the Super Two situation into consideration.
Come on Bruce, the Cubs are absolutely taking the Super Two situation into consideration with Cashner.
His move to the bullpen is something that should have been done in late April/early May to help get him to Wrigley to sew up some wins against that weak schedule. Now the Cubs are getting into a tougher part of their schedule and it isn't going to matter much as it could have.
The organizational question is what are the Cubs going to do with all the starting pitching they seem to have. I'd be very disappointed if Hendry isn't already sending out feelers for Lilly, Silva and Gorzelanny. It's time to be a little more proactive with these things.
...then why is Castro not batting 2nd???? C'mon, Lou....
I'd say it will happen then.