Of stats, draft and situational hitting
A whole bunch of stuff to talk about tonight and in the paper (and online, of course) tomorrow, including the new stats guy, draft picks signing and even a little talk from Lou about situational hitting. Here’s the lineup against lefty Gio Gonzalez:
Theriot, 2B
Baker, 3B
Byrd, CF
Lee, 1B
Nady, RF
Soriano, LF
Soto, C
Castro, SS
Dempster, P
And thanks again to everybody for the discussion on yesterday’s two blogs and into today. The Cubs have hired noted stats guy Ari Kaplan as manager of statistical analysis. He’s a Tom Ricketts hire who will report to Jim Hendry and whose job will complement that of Chuck Wasserstrom, manager of baseball information. Apparently, Ari does not wish to be interviewed despite requests. Too bad.
“He’s a guy we’ve known for years,” Jim said. “When I first got here, he used to do some work for Andy MacPhail on the side, statistical analysis. He contributed to some arbitration statistics over time. He has a relationship with some of our scouts. He’s been going to a lot of games here for years.
“We can always use some more help. Tom Ricketts has brought in a lot of people. This is the first baseball guy. If it helps us get better, it’s good for us.”
Jim says Ari will work on a lot of long-term projects such as the analysis of the upcoming six-year free-agents as well as those another year out from free agency. He’ll also work to develop computer programs to help the scouts.
“We’ve got a good group,” Jim said. “I’ve told you people this all along: The layer underneath Jim Hendry, starting with Randy Bush to Tim Wilken and Oneri Fleita’s departments, is in tremendous shape. The major-league club is not doing well, and that’s my responsibility. The people under me are doing terrific. Our scouting and development haven’t been in this good of shape in the 15 years I’ve been here. The scouts are good. The minor-league guys are developing players you’re starting to see on a regular basis. There’s another wave coming the next few years.”
Speaking of that, I expect No. 1 draft pick, pitcher Hayden Simpson, to be all but signed and delivered by the weekend if all things go well with the physical.
Here’s a list of who’s signed so far:
Round 4 Hunter Ackerman
Round 8 Cameron Greathouse
Round 10 Aaron Kurcz
Round 11 Eric Jokisch
Round 19 Dustin Fitzgerald
Round 20 Ryan Cuneo
Round 22 Jeffery Vigurs
Round 23 Matt Loosen
Round 28 Joseph Zeller
Round 32 Brent Ebinger
Round 34 Dustin Harrington
A reporter asked Lou this evening about situational hitting in the pregame confab. The Cubs are batting .250 with runners in scoring position, .264 with RISP and less than two outs and .234 with RISP and two outs.
"What is situational hitting?” Lou said. “Situational hitting is knowing the opposing pitcher, having a pretty good idea of what the catcher is calling. This is one of the things I don't like about hitters going up all the time and watching film of their at-bats. I think you learn more sitting on the bench watching the pitchers pitch and the catchers call a ballgame, seeing what the guy can get over, seeing what he's having trouble not getting over. At the same time there's nothing wrong with being really aggressive the first couple pitches of the sequence. But once you get 2 strikes on you, you've got to get a little bit into a defensive mode. You're not in an offensive situation anymore. When you strike out with runners on base, especially in scoring position, you're not advancing baserunners. One of the things that helps you score cheap runs is the advancement of baserunners.
"And how does it help you? For instance, you move a runner to third. The guy's got a real good curveball. Well, he might not want to throw that real good curveball because he'll bounce it, and the guy can score. But if he stays on second, he can bounce it all day long, and you're not going to get a run out of it. Situational hitting is having a good idea of what the opponent's going to do to you, being a little bit more defensive when you get behind in the count and three, utilizing the whole field to hit with. To me, that's what you call situational hitting."
Quickly the minors, we told you last night about Casey Coleman’s sterling performance for Iowa in Game 1 of their doubleheader: 7 innings, hits to only the first two batters and 8 strikeouts and no walks. Jeff Samardzija, who is holding Mitch Atkins’ place in the rotation, won the second game by going 5 innings and giving up 3 hits and no runs. He walked two and struck out six.
At Daytona (A), Brett Jackson went 2-for-5 with an RBI and his 11th stolen base in beating Lakeland 5-4. Kyler Burke and Michael Brenly went 2-for-4 each. Chris Archer got the win with 5.1 innings of 8-hit, 4-run (3 earned) ball. He walked none and struck out 10.
At Peoria, righty Nick Struck took the loss, but he worked 5 innings, giving up 4 hits and 1 run as the Chiefs fell 2-0 to Burlington. Hak-Ju Lee extended his hitting streak to nine games by going 1-for-4. He’s 14-for-35 in the streak. Matt Cerda extended his streak to five games, going 1-for-4 with a double.
I guess this is what they call "shooting the messenger." Bruce Miles is the most knowledgeable and honest Cubs reporter in town -- that's why we're on this site in the first place.
Take out your anger some place else -- there's plenty of blame to go around for the Cubs poor play. I've done my share of venting on Bruce's blog and enjoy reading other's comments. Its cheap therapy, but let's not go overboard.
I'm good. You get a troll with an agenda now and then. I'm fine with disagreeing. I just don't like people attacking others (myself or other participants here) with name-calling and then hiding behind a screen name. Not much courage in that. Your input here has always been great, osh.
Bruce... I think that you're missing the poster's point. It seems to me that the poster is trying to say (albeit in a somewhat abrasive way) that you lack objectivity in regards to reporting what you see (which is the same as what most of us see) with the Cubs. By not being objective, you come across as an apologist.
What the poster doesn't understand is that you are merely the moderator of this blog and it's a way for the posters to express themselves.
Once one understands that you're basically Switzerland (neutral) in this whole thing, then one pretty much can get the whole concept, see what's going on here and make the determination if it's their thing or not.
All you have to do is do some of the research. I've leveled plenty of criticism at the Hendry regime (I'd be glad to provide the links). Some posters like to pick and choose. And I'm not opposed to screen names, either. But if you're going to engage in childish name-calling, you should identify yourself.
The Cubs are badly constructed ballclub that has gotten old in a hurry in too many critical spots. The contracts to Zambrano, Fukudome, Soriano, Ramirez and Lee are absolutely crippling in light of the dramatic downturn in performance from this core group of players.
It's not Piniella's fault that Zambrano makes $92 million and has no business being in a big league rotation at this point. It's not Piniella's fault that Fukudome is being paid an insane $48 million for being a .250-ish hitting singles hitter with lousy run production value. It's not Piniella's fault that Soriano makes $136 million for being a horrendous defensive liability and one of most streakiest and inconsistent hitters in baseball. It's not Piniella's fault that Ramirez has become injury plagued and dropped off the face of a cliff having passed his 30th birthday and eerily coincidental to baseball's tougher drug testing standards.
This is not a good ballclub. They aren't underachieving by any significant measure when you take a good hard unvarnished look at the level of talent right now.
Yet Bruce Miles and his fellow lackeys in the media are Jim Hendry apologists. And they wonder why newspapers are becoming extinct and their travel expense accounts have been eliminated.
for Goniou. Or is it just a crisis of truth.
Maybe you should take a good hard unvarnished look at the crap you are spewing out.
...Us lackeys put our real names on everything we write, whether you like what it is or not. No screen names here.
--Bruce Miles
Despite having your stature in the media wiped away by the demise of newsprint and the Daily Herald's consious business decision therefore to reduce expenditures on sports coverage, Jim Hendry still must allow you to partake in the press box buffet. Hence why you shall not constructively critique the man's ruinous run as Cub General Manager.
Those must be some wickedely good deli spreads.
But I bring my lunch every day. Can't afford the $7 they charge, Ms. or Mr. Screen name. The Internet has made heroes out of the basest cowards.
A. Geovany Soto has devolved into a lousy defensive catcher
B. Cub starters have professed a likeness for Koyie Hill behind the plate
Playing defense and handling pitchers well are the priority. Soto isn't that wondrous of a hitter where his bat absolutely must be in the lineup.
Please provide evidence for both of your points. I highly doubt any Cub pitcher has stated that they would prefer to pitch to Koyie Hill. I also don't think you can provide any evidence that Koyie Hill is a lousy defensive catcher. In fact, Brenly generally compliments Geo for his blocking of pitches.
Simple fact. You don't know what you are talking about. Fortunately, you have the right to continue to say it anyway. How lucky that makes all of us.....
It's easy to make blinding statements like Geovany Soto should play more because he is superior hitter to Koyie Hill. And that Lou Piniella is a big fat dope for playing Koyie Hill as much as he does. After all, you are in possession of vastly superior baseball knowledge and sit in the Cub dugout and see things firsthand.
Koyie Hill is a better catcher and a better handler of pitchers in the mind of Piniella and that of Rothschild too. Hence why he is logging a quite a lot of playing time despite your wondrous assessment that Soto hits better and therefore it is a no-brainer that he play everyday.
and you too.
Just look at the most recent examples. Hill starts first game of series, Cubs pitching allows 9 runs. Last 2 games Soto starts, Cubs pitching allows 2 runs each game. BTW, they won those 2 games and lost the game started by Hill.
Maybe the Cubs horrible stretch they have been in
Does that show anything? According to you, it should show that Soto is doing a better job of handling the pitchers. I don't buy it.
To me, it shows that the pitchers pitched well, regardless of who the catcher was.
By the way, Soto went 2 for 3 with a walk.
Koyie Hill's slugging percentage is .292. Nuff said.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/piniella-loses-his-marbles/
In the last month, the Cubs have played 27 games. 15 of those have been started by Geovany Soto, while 12 have been started by Koyie Hill.
Soto is hitting .268/.409/.458, good for a .387 wOBA.
Hill is hitting .236/.267/.292, good for a .245 wOBA.
It gets worse. We’re over halfway through the month of June, and Soto has 22 plate appearances. Hill has 27. As the Cubs season slips away, Lou Piniella has decided that one of the ways he can get his team to win games is to change catchers, despite the fact that Soto is one of the best hitting catchers in the game while Hill is one of the worst.
The reason, of course, is the old manager crutch: handling pitchers. Since Hill can’t hit, he’s earned the reputation as a good defender. Piniella believes he’s simply exchanging offense for defense by putting Hill in the lineup. The problem is that there is absolutely nothing in the record that he could possibly lean on to support playing Hill with such frequency.
Soto is poor at throwing out basestealers. He is just 8 for 41 this year, a 20 percent success rate. Hill? 3 for 16, a 19 percent success rate.
Lou doesn’t like the way Soto handles a pitching staff, and believes the guys on the mound perform better with Hill behind the plate. Opponents are hitting .253/.324/.392 when Soto catchers, and .236/.308/.383 when Hill catches. The difference is tiny, and is entirely wrapped up in BABIP – the team’s BB/K rate is actually slightly better when Soto catches.
In fact, if you look back over the last three years, the Cubs have allowed 4.18 runs per game when Hill starts and 4.27 runs per game when Soto starts. Even if you believe in something like catchers ERA (you shouldn’t, but that’s another story), the observed difference between Hill and Soto is less than a tenth of a run per game.
The observed difference between Soto and Hill at the plate is much, much larger. Even using a regressed projection like the rest-of-season ZiPS, we would see a .362 wOBA for Soto and a .289 wOBA for Hill, which translates to about .25 runs per four plate appearances.
Plain and simple: Piniella is screwing up. He’s playing a bad player over a good player in an effort to win more games. It’s not like the team is responding to the move, either. On May 17th, the Cubs were 17-22, 5 1/2 games out of first place. Today, they are 29-36, 6 1/2 games out of first place. They’ve gone 12-14 since Piniella decided to make Soto a part-time player.
The Cubs are almost certainly going to have a house cleaning at some point in the near future. In the best interest of the organization, their manager should probably be part of that, and the franchise should make “Is Geovany Soto a better catcher than Koyie Hill?” the first question they ask in the interview process.
The Angels starting shortstop (Aybar) recently hurt his knee and has missed several games. Their backup (Isturiz) was put on the DL Tuesday. They also need a first baseman after theirs broke his leg in a celebration last month.
This is a team in a playoff race that has obvious needs. Now is the time for Hendry to dangle Lee and Theriot. Let the bidding begin.
Hendry should be all over that....heck, and throw in Grabow in the deal.
that's team ball. (what kind of baseball do you play Lou)? you wonder why Theriot keeps leading off. i'd still go with Byrd.
bruce, there are reports that Colin Richardson signed.
If you hear any news on some of the remaining HS arms (Wells and Hartman in particular), that'd be great. I'm really hoping we get both those boys signed.
Uggh. Soriano. Bruce, please no. I understand the rationale, but that only robs peter to pay paul, weakening the middle of the line up, when Sori's going good and doing nothing when he's not.
Just take out Theriot and put Colvin or Fontenot at leadoff. They both have better OBP and aren't the slowest guys around. In fact, Fontenot could just replace Theriot all together.
So you don't want to put Soriano at leadoff, but you do want to put Colvin at leadoff? Colvin is the left handed power bat in the middle of the lineup. With him at leadoff, you don't have another effective left handed hitter in the lineup. And maybe you haven't noticed, but Colvin has a MUCH better HR/AB ratio than Soriano. Looks to me like the ball really jumps off Colvin's bat, and I think he will end up being a 25 - 30 HR guy.
No, actually I don't think the Cubs have a lead off hitter, except for April, when Fukudome is hot. But there are other options on the team as good or better than Soriano at leadoff and if you are going to put an rbi guy in the one hole, Colvin's as good an option as Soriano.
But I really think Fontenot is a better option anyway. Every time Lou pencils in Theriot, Tram should erase it and put Fontenot. We'd have about equal D at second and better production at the top of the order.
Others have suggested Soto, when he plays. That's OK too. Whatever. Hell put Lee at lead off for a while to make him think about getting on. He has a good pitch count/AB rate. Maybe he'd get back to his old groove of high OBPs from some years ago and improve his BA if he didn't have to worry about being the only run producer. Of course, with Lee's .230 BA, you'd have to see immediate results...
There is no good option at lead off on this team, that's why this discussion is so fun.
He threw 120 pitches, 72 for strikes. It was his fifth straight game of triple-digit pitch counts. He has reached 120 or more four times. He entered the day ranked seventh in Baseball Prospectus' pitcher abuse points.
Dempster is being paid $48 million to PITCH. And given the continuing substandard nature of the bullpen it is no mystery therefore that he is being asked to work deep into games, especially in light of the fact that the rest of the Cub starters are 5 and 6 inning type guys.
Put down your sabermetric manual pal. Then go ask Tom Seaver, Fergie Jenkins, Rick Reuschel, Steve Carlton and a host of others why they thrived for years in 4 man rotations en route to logging well over 250 innings per year.
And......so what?
Demp is a veteran pitcher in great shape making big money.
He's the opposite of a 21 y/o prospect, who should be closely monitored and gradually build arm endurance.
The 100-pitch threshold is nothing for a Dempster. And, personally, I could give a rat's behind if he looks smooth and effective and goes 119 or 121 pitches.
BP's "Pitcher Abuse Points" was a stupidly arbitrary, perspective-lacking title from the day they came up with it.
If there's ever a mgr who makes a decision to yank a pitcher before 100 or 120 because of how BP will log it, that mgr shouldn't be in the business.
I know Larry is one of the most respected guys in the league, but is it possible that after about 10 years now, we might need a different perspective or a change in philosophy? The Cubs pitchers don't go deep in games because they throw way too many pitches. Maybe it is just the pitchers we have, but it seems like we see more full counts than any team I ever watch.
Soriano just laid down his first successful sacrifice bunt as a Cub. His last came in 2006 while with Washington. When the Cubs move him back to leading off, he can bunt for basehits.
... could it be any worse than Ryan Theriot at this point? Bruce, if you think Theriot is a non-tender candidate, then it's in the Cubs' best interest to trade him now. San Diego is looking for middle infielders. Tell Jim to get it done. Fontenot should be starting given his OBP and OPS.
"When the Cubs move him back to leading off, he can bunt for basehits."
Whatever they're serving you in the press box, send me some!!
Not quite as long as Z's 27-pitch first inning of last night, but Demp threw 24 pitches, 14 strikes, in the first as the A's scored a run. An inning-ending DP on a comebacker got Demp out of further trouble.
Saw two pitches, swinging at both, and tapped back to the pitcher.
I think you're right about the offseason, Bruce. Geez.
Entering the game, he was .287/.318/.315 for an OPS of .633. He had a total of 2 extra-base hits in May and June, both doubles. He had 4 walks and 15 strikeouts over May and June. The Cubs do not have a leadoff hitter. As I've said now since asking Lou about it in Houston, you might as well bat Soriano first and see what happens.
won't we look at Castro at leadoff. His speed is wasted in the #8 spot. Theriot is .182 leading off the game with only 1BB all year. I can't see moving what little power we have up there. As for babysitting Castro. there is little indication he can't handle the pressure. In fact, he'll like;y see better pitches at the top than ahead of the pitcher.
I'd love to see him groomed for leading off next year. If he can't handle the job, let's find out now. If it doesn't work, we'll have to shop for that before 2011. We're being outscored 46-27 in the first inning and we are 2-15 when trailing at the end of one inning. Much of that has to do with our terrible record getting the leadoff man on base in the first.
is 3.5. That's certainly not ideal for leading off. Furthermore, while Castro has decent raw speed, and solid enough lateral movement, he isn't really a base stealer. Granted, right now, our leadoff hitter (at least part-time) is Theriot and his 3.54 P/PA.
As a side note, I can't be the only one that feels like Castro needs a break, can I? The kid's young - I feel like getting him some more days off would do him some good.
he would be the same type hitter at #1 rather than #8. Lou just tells him to work the count, he'll see more quality pitches without the pitcher behind him. The reality is....we have no one else who can lead off. No one.
Our present leadoff duo of Theriot and Fukudome are terrible in that role. Why not try him? See what he does for a few weeks. See how much pressure he puts on the opposing pitchers on the bases.
is that as a lead off man? is theriot a base stealer? that being said i'd keep castro hitting 2nd.
He had a good night last night. Lets let him play and hope he gets on a roll. I was thinking a few days ago that Pinella should give him a day off, just for the mental break. I want him playing though. I don't want him starting 3 - 4 days a week.
His defense is SO much better than Theriot's, it is not even funny. Looks like a potential gold glover to me if he can keep improving on the routine play.