Crunch the numbers; Hawks in a bind
Matching San Jose's four-year, $14 million offer sheet for Niklas Hjalmarsson was a no-brainer for the Blackhawks.
You don't let 23-year-old defensemen with all-star potential walk.
But the $3.5 million cap hit for Hjalmarsson is a killer for a team that is back up to its neck in salary cap problems.
While GM Stan Bowman said on Monday he hoped to sign restricted free-agent goalie Antti Niemi and that he was still trying to work things out cap-wise, crunch the numbers and it sure looks as if the Hawks must move out another key player with a substantial cap hit.
It might be Patrick Sharp.
It might be Brian Campbell.
It might be Niemi.
Perhaps Bowman can find a team to take Marty Reasoner and his $1.15 million cap hit, or Tomas Kopecky and his $1.2 million hit.
For Hawks fans who have waited so long for a great team, losing Sharp on the heels of seeing Dustin Byfuglien, Kris Versteeg, Andrew Ladd, Adam Burish and John Madden leave would be crushing - Stanley Cup or no Stanley Cup.
With Hjalmarsson, the Hawks have 15 players signed now for $59.3 million, which includes the $4.1 million in bonuses due Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane.
The NHL's salary cap is $59.4 million.
The Hawks have about $100,000 in cap space, give or take a few thousand with at least five roster spots to fill.
Once Cristobal Huet's $5.65 million comes off the books, the Hawks will be in better shape, but that's about $5.75 million to spend on Niemi and at least four other players.
Bowman still has to sign Bryan Bickell and Jack Skille. If they sign, say, for what they made last season it's about $800,000 for Skille and $500,000 for Bickell.
Here are the cap hits for others who have a chance to make the team.
$525,000 for Jake Dowell.
$735,000 for Marcus Kruger.
$800,000 for Corey Crawford.
$773,000 for Shawn Lalonde.
$1.17 million for Kyle Beach.
$821,000 for Ivan Vishnevskiy.
Maybe the answer is a long-term contract for Niemi that's either front-loaded or back-loaded where the cap hit is friendly. But would Niemi and agent Bill Zito go for a deal of five, six or seven years?
Mix and match the numbers any way you like and it’s clear Bowman still has a big problem to solve.
But I heard that the Kovalchuk deal is a 17 year contract...that would mean he is 44-45 years old at the end of the deal.
The Devils must have taken the creative front loading of the deals like the Hossa deal to a whole new level on this one.
I wouldn't be surprised is someone got the details wrong when they reported this is a 17 year contract, but if not, I don't see how the NHL doesn't investigate this one. I mean, what is next? 25 year contracts? This is getting to be a little bit insane.
How many years ago did Yashin get a 10 year deal from NYI. Dipeitro got a 15 year deal. Heck we gave Duncan Keith a 13 year deal. This is how it is going at this point. As much as I like Keith and Hossa, these LONG term deals haven't worked out once yet. All the players were in the mid-20s when they signed too (Hossa not included).
it their age. Dipeitro will be something like 39 when his deal ends. Keith the same. Hossa's deal was looked at because he is what, 42 when it expires? This just pushes it that much more. Will we see contracts in a year or two that take players a couple more years to 46 or 47? This is becoming a problem for the NHL.
Think about that $500K over the last years: Right now, the Blackhawks are DYING for figures like that to fill out their roster. That will be a paltry sum. (Which makes you wonder why the Devils didn't go for a million-per over the last two years just to get him out of there.) Personally, I can't believe the Kings and Devils cornered themselves into this contract with no other teams (OK, the Isles) bidding for him.
Hi y’all Smoove B here I be your black hawk- black brutha! Lordy lordy and ooo-weeee was dat a mutha f’er of season. We gots the cup and we is movin on up, like George Jeffasons. I’m chompin down on some ice cold watermelon and reedin’ all y’alls postinz. It seem to me that the man round here is dat Reel Whiz dude. He gots all the info!
Where all the ladies be? Hey baby girls, I’m here fo ya just lets Smoove know when you in the mood for some hot HOT chocolate. I can pick you in my Benz and we can roll to dis lil’ spot I gots up near 59th and Lowe.
Hey Whizzy brutha man true dat ‘bout Neimi you da man. I looks fo-ward to hookin it wit ya’ll. Sho is good! Go Blackhawks!
Peace!
Smoove B
Halo Smove B, I’m Hanz The Kraut! to tell you You are not welcome here. This is a pure board, purity is achieved by exterminating the undesirable, the weak and the mongrel. You are parasite, and parasites get exterminated.
Parasites harm the biological gene pool of purity and master race. You will not be tolerated here!! The ideologies we follow here are akin to Nationalsocialism and political syncretic. Your mongrelism and parasitic existence will be exterminated her Smoove
Auf Wiedersehen !!!
I will say I am not claiming this is a thought in anyone's head except mine. What if the Hawks offered Campbell and Brouwer for Bobby Ryan?
Ryan is proving to be a difficult sign for ANA as he is looking to get the same money as Getzlaf and Perry. Considering Toews and Kane make more then those two guys our "ceiling" would be a little higher. Even if Ryan does make $5.5 mil that is still less then Campbell. So we would get a little cap space and ANA would get a young goal scoring power forward in Brouwer who is much cheaper and some leverage against Wiz' pending arbitration case with Campbell. Campbell gets to play on a team that should be playoff bound as well. Bobby Ryan with Toews and Kane!?
Seems ok in my head, but that can be scary.
A young power forward for an overpriced #4 d-man? Even with Brouwer thrown in, I think there's zero chance of that one. In fact, I can't see anyone taking Campbell off their hands. Campbell's contract is just horrible, and a huge reason for the cap problems, and probably the only way it gets done is taking an equal value bad contract (and equal years ) in return.
Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Bobby Ryan here. He'd add an element the Hawks are currently lacking. But that Campbell contract is just a killer, and probably any thought of unloading it is a pipe dream at this point. I hope I'm wrong about that, though.
what a good question...
and Haljmarsson and Wizzzzzzzzzz.
Looks to me like Niemi is gone.
Turco? Believe me I would have known this already, I also know what’s planned for Niemi, but I’m bound by NHL honor not to divulge these serious details. I was on the phone with my inside people all weekend discussing the various situations and the way they may play out.
Turco is washed up, he has a slow glove hand and combine that with the heart defect he was born with ( faulty valve) I wouldn’t trust him as my every day goalie. Whiz and few of you make some valid points, but as we know, it’s pure conjecture. I hear facts from the top brass. I get calls from both players & GM’s to council them through tough times such as unwanted pregnancies, mistress problems, $$$ woes to name a few. So I DO KNOW what is going in this league. I will , of course let you all know what’s going on when the time is right.
Rock on!
Jeff
Oh yeah, we all can't wait for your breaking news report on the latest Hawk moves. We'll all be tuned into WCOK for your Global Hockey Force Report live from Malibu, sponsored by Prozac.
Hi Reg, nice to hear from you buddy. How was your weekend? Thanks for being so interested, you're a true fan not just of mine but of all hockey. I'll give you call and fill you in on the whats going on later. Prozac does work well, I saw how it changed the lives a many of the orphans that I sponsor and that love me. THey are happy kids, instead sad, lonely and empty husks of human flesh. Now they don't mind eating institution food and being lonley and never getting christmas presents or hugs.
Talk to you soon buddy!
Jeff
Roz?
A deal would have been struck by now if a deal could be struck. That much I'm absolutely convinced of. Therefore I believe this thing is marching to arbitration, with the Hawks willing/desperate to see what happens. Again, if the amound awarded is north of $2.25 million then, in my opinion, the Hawks wave bye-bye and let him become an unrestricted free agent.
The Hawks are not going to pay Niemi $2.9 million as suggested in RealWiz's "math." There is no way that happens. Hence why I believe, unfortunately, that Niemi is a goner.
The chances of hammering out a contract with Niemi are zilch. Therefore I believe the Hawks are preparing for this thing to go to arbitration where either one of two things will happen. Either the arbitration process results in a salary amount of $2.25 million or less and the Hawks and Niemi shake hands, or a greater salary figure is decided upon and the Hawks walk away with Niemi being allowed to become an unrestricted free agent. If the later happens (and chances are strong that it will) then Stan Bowman turns to "Plan B," which is probably getting Marty Turco to agree to a one year $1.75 million contract for the chance to play with the Stanley Cup Champions at this late stage of his career.
Neither side wants to go arbitration but the card was played to extort a few more bucks or years out the team.
He is signable, the Cap gets tight and closes and outside signings but doable.
$826,875 was his entire salary last season. You think the raise of 2.9 mil is not a nice doable number and three times his last year salary and enough pay to develop into a all around reliable NHL netminder?
Did you read my post below before you went gloom and doom?
Hey Wiz,
I agree with what you are saying. I don't think that Niemi and Zito want to go to arbitration at all because it is such a crap shoot. Hearing Zito talk has made it seem as if he wants to get a contract signed sooner rather than later. If they can come to terms on a contract at $2.9 mil per year or less for 3 years or less then I would say go for it. If Zito and Niemi stick to their guns and try to get more than let them go to arbitration and see what they decide. If it is in the Hawks favor then keep him for the year. If not then walk away. Niemi has talent but is not an elite level goaltender at this point in time. He still has some pretty big holes in his game that need to be fixed before I would commit too much money and years to him in a contract. It has been proven over the last few years that you a team does not NEED a world beater in net to win the Cup. A goalie that comes up big with a save at the right time is what is needed.
Wiz would Niemi's agent want in the new deal, if one were struck? I'm gun-shy about committing major dollars to a goalie of any kind. Unless Antti agrees to under 2 mill, I say we walk. If it goes to arb, chances are he'll get a settlement for over two and we walk still. I just have visions of Niemi having a 4.something goals against at the end of the season's first month.
as a middle figure for a second year improving player.
I wasn't gonna low ball him, but I wasn't gonna reward him far past his true value to the team.
I am pretty sure the way the arbitration game is played is the hawks low-ball, but cannot just say oh, A million, they have to say the hawks must justify the number...why they think it is a reasonable salary aligned with his not only contributions but his stats in terms of other goaltenders (if there really ARE any goalers in a similar "stage.") during the season, past seasons, etc.
Be mindful that the arbitrator's decision locks the salary for one year.
The reason both sides want to negoticate and solve this is they then are able to work a long term pay- that is IF both sides truly want to remain together.
If Stan has Turco is his sites with a one year deal, as Steve above states as fact, or if Stan just continues to talk to Turco and hopes the word gets back to Niemi and Zito that they are not just threathening going another way, it gets Zito to be reasonable.
But my salary was based on what I thought was the highest reasonable number that Niemi could be afforded.
Could be b.s. but I am told it's done. I will report more as soon as I hear it.
The above comment printed twice, so I erased one. I am unsude as to why that happened.
1 Campbell D $7,142,875
2 Toews F $6,300,000
3 Kane F $6,300,000
4 Keith D $5,538,462
5 Hossa F $5,275,000
6 Sharp F $3,900,000
7 Seabrook D $3,500,000
8 Hjalmarsson D $3,500,000
9 Bolland F $3,375,000
10 Kopecky F $1,200,000
11 Brouwer F $1,025,000
12 Stalberg F $850,000
13 Scott F $512,500
14 Lalonde D $773,333
16 Dowell F $525,000
17 Niemi G $2,900,000
18 Hendry D $600,000
19 Skille F $600,000
20 Bickell F $600,000 several years
21 Makarov,I F $552,500 2 yrs
22 Dowell F $525,000
23 Toivonen, H G $550,000
one veteran defenseman (McKee /) or
24 Lalonde D $773,333 or Kruger (735,000 rotating back and forth from Rockford ?)
or....Lalonde seasoned in Rockford and Kruger and both Kruger and brought up at various times or with a little creativity and "injuires", all three shuttle back and forth.
Total $55,519,670
Cap -$5mil $55,242,247
Space -$277,423
Bonus $285,000
Space $7,577
NB: this roster also excludes the salary of Ivan Vishnevskiy $821,667 since it takes the Cap 22,000 dollars over ...and I have found Reasoner a home in Minnesota for a seventh round pick in the 2213 draft.
he probably deserves it, but hawks can't afford it. But also depends on years. I am still saying like 2 mil a year for 2 years - -- also give him a 1 mil bonus for the stanley cup and only get paid cheap last season. so that is 2.5 a year. He still needs to play a full season and if we have learned anything - one year doesn't make a goalie. Just look at Mason and Thomas.
It will be interesting next year as to who picks up the scoring slack. I always thought the Hawks lacked that pure scorer and some games lacked the finisher. Hossa was suppose to be that guy and he floundered late in the season. Versteeg came up with some big goals during the season and Buf was huge in the playoffs - who is going to step up? or be the pleasent surprise.
The Hawks will have a good team, but will lack the depth and experience needed to win the cup again. it could be the 2008-2009 team all over again. But some players might surprise - play as good as Hjammer and Sopel did, even though Sopel got beat up relentlessly on this blog - the guy was solid all year and of course with a few bad games.
The Hawks need a Madden replacement and a power play defensemen which hopefully a 5 or 6 dman can fill. Vishnevsky?
One positive note - we may have a few d-man in the system that might be able to step in if injuries occur. Last year, it was slim pickings.
Still have a few guys unsigned so there may be a face or two different in October than what is listed here, but all in all I suspect you've nailed the early season roster. I'll be curious to see who replaces Sopel on the PK where a shot blocker is needed. Is that Scott? It can't be one of the top four guys and Hendry obviously isn't the volunteer for that either. Hard to believe a rookie will fill his shoes there. We'll see.....
I'm OK if Hendry is the #6. Some of you fine folks are being pretty tough on the young man but to me he had a season like #2 had say four years ago. I'm not saying Hendry will become a Norris winner in three years, I'm just saying most defensemen have a season or two of going left when they should be going right before they start figuring things out. Hendry showed some good flashes last year, has pretty good speed and carries the biscuit decently, so I suspect he'll get matched up with a Walker type (Scott??) and be given more chances to grow. The third pair plays plenty for this team so whoever it is will keep seeing a lot of ice time.
Speaking of ice time, with the wife off on holiday with her shopping buddies it gave me a chance to kick back and watch the clinching game of the 1974 Finals between Boston and Philly (it may be 95 outside but the rink is always cold on TV). Got to see Bobby Orr play and heard mention that he had 14 1/2 minutes of ice time.....in the second period. That Orr guy wasn't a bad player. And a young Bobby Clarke had more than a passing resemblence to the young Patrick Kane, only with a lot less teeth.
I suspect the play all along was to bring a hungry veteran dee-man who would play for a lower amount just to get a chance to challenge for a Cup if he hasn't won one.
I suspect the Hjarlmarsson debacle prevents that move from happening until they are closer to the trade deadline, they find the right guy, his pay hit is just the rest of the regular season games and they pay with a choice or a prospect, or a Rockford.
what's the minimum number on NHL rosters . thanks
I guess since the rule book say your on ice roster is 2 goalies and 18 players there is no minimum.
Would a club dress six fowards and four defenseman w/o a call up?
In today's world of excess (looking down at my non-alcoholic belly) the teams and the league want the luxury of "pressbox" guys because a guy could get injured in the pre-skate.
Teams like a guy up there.
Scott I think sees limited duty, and more ice if he is on a wing then as a 6 minute defenseman.
No one convinces me he is your PK replacement for Sopel with a fist attachment.
22 is the maximun size with most teams carrying only six "true" defensemen.(As I just said I don't view Scott as defenseman.) If a team has an injury on dee, they call up a replacement.
of the hawk line up . what some are forgetting that whoever plays with toews and kane are going to put some decent numbers . so is whoever plays with sharp and hossa. go back in history and remember battle ship kelly with larouche and kehoe. probert with yzerman etc.
with bolland as the 3rd line centre that line will be okay. to me the issue they will have is protecting their top players . scott can't be the only one .comments
like the line up wiz except for Hendry. he's had enough of a chance to prove himself. gets knocked off the puck to easy and can't cover anyone in front of the net.i'd take a chance on someone else. as for the comment can't from someone who says theirs too many rookies i disagree. just make the playoffs as they will then rent a player if need be
I have not voiced or blog much support for Hendry's game, but the NHL has put teams in a constant need of guys like him...because he fits a low CAP number, and you pray he doesn't embarrass the six-nine minutes he plays. In the play-off, he seemed to perpetually put the Hawks in trouble with bad around the horn cough ups, wall losses, but by the end of the series got less scary...of course they went 5 man for long stretches until guys were gassed.
That is the intoxicating aluring upside to both IVAN VISHNEVSKIY and SHAWN LALONDE.
They ooze of a higher skill level.
That doesn't mean you rush if Hendry plays limited and cheap.
We haven't said it but when these different guys do finally make the roster is not just a momentary decision as you are going to then have their contracts RFA status, in a locked track from the time you have made them a roser space.
Complicated. like when Stan said he traded the 43 slot pick to Toronto because he didn't want to have far too many players maruring and challenging in any certain future year and getting giant Jimmy Hayes is closer to getting here owning to the fact he was drafted two year like Beach and Lalonde, a draft the hawks clearly had few picks and where Zhan returned into this year's draft
and they are waiting for results on Rockford's Carlsson, Ben Smith and soon Braden Birch.
(so that begs the queston: How many players is a adequate number you want to have develop? The Hawks clearly have 2009 grads Leddy Olsen, Morin, Hayes, Pirri, Delise, Frose, Kruger and it is easy to see they will not all be ready for the For game in the same year, many coming a bit later.
Maybe THAT was why the Hawks spent so many selections on longer term guys in Kevin Hayes, Justin Holl,Stephen Johns, and Joakim Nordström, and the developing Rob Flick.
Ok, I am presenty in LA for my son in law, "Henry Rowangartner's" 30th birthday party and getting ragged by my family for not helping get place in order for tomorrow's party. We are all at the Viper Room on Sunset Strip as his band TNB played, so I think the lack of sleep is stressing these non-hockey talk friendly into downright resentment of me. Signing off for today.
like the line up wiz except for Hendry. he's had enough of a chance to prove himself. gets knocked off the puck to easy and can't cover anyone in front of the net.i'd take a chance on someone else. as for the comment can't from someone who says theirs too many rookies i disagree. just make the playoffs as they will then rent a player if need be
Any chance that Morin could crack the lineup or is he just too young? I definitely like his offensive potential.
He has a major league shot an dis one of those types that could play the last shift of the game and tie with that rocket release.
That being said, I think that the organization feels they want him physically stonger.
His skating is a lesser issue as he gets to where he is going. Ask a teammate in the OHA and they will tell you that he ia all team.
He might need tiem to become committed and aclimated to playing in the defensive zone too.
I said this before, but in his draft year I had him going to St. Louis at I beieve 17 because there were many comparisions between him and both former Blue's linemates Adam Oates and Brett Hull.
They also were not lights out top gear skaters but could bet you with (Oates) a samrt pass or (Hul) a big blast.
To me, that is the giddy excitement about the Blackhawks now having the biggest up & coming talent base in the NHL.
When a team has the luxury of a extremely smart and skilled forward core, oh, so many of these kids are going to have a much easier transistion with the offensive parts of THEIR games.
Hard work, confidence and results on the big team are great ways to get further along.
Someone posted my Hawk Cap friendly line-up has many rookies.
I really don't consider Dowell, Bickell, Skille rookies in the sence that they are seasoned AHL guys and have seen action at the NHL level at the higher speed of play. Stalberg played some in Toronto too. Vishnevskiy played a few in Dallas but I confess I only saw him once and he wasn't what I was really watching, but you can teach the skill and quickness he displays, and he is not lacking that Hjarllmarsson-type toughness though his game is more up ice.
...and the rest of the rookies, well that is why I had all but Makarov on a commuter bus back and forth from Rockford. Kruger is a bit younger but don't think nightly battles in the Swedish Elite league are not a step below the North American Junior league, they are closer in instensity as our pro game. (Both Makarov and Kruger need to be ready to just do, and not think about what the on ice reactions are supposed to be. Rockford might help in that transition to the North American game.
I see value in the upside of WHAT COULD HAPPEN positively if a Kruger, Morin, Lalonde were to get minutes on the team and step up and meet the challenge head on, and excelled at their positions in all phases. I think you want any call-up to take away good feelings from the experience, and a reason to work very hard to round their game to one were the team has no choice but keep you up, because you as a player don't exhibit any "holes."
But coming from junior leagues and playing in the NHL is an extraordinary jump. Granted gifted top choices sometimes make it flawlessly. Others need a year at the NHL to adjust. Others, picked higher in the draft weren't number ones because they were FARTHER away, and taking a junior or sophmore in college player and dropping them in could work to retard or even destroy their confidence. Just remember the way Hjarlmer was "adjusted" in Rockford, or how Phoenix knew they made a mistake rushing turris and had him play last season entirely in the minors.
There are few Pat Kanes, whose value offensively is so great, that you figure we can except his mistakes and work with him to round out, because his value HERE outweighs "seasoning".
And on the other end of forward play, there are few Ryan O'Reilly's who get drafted and at 18 make the NHL club based on their strong all-around 3 zone game despite only scoring 16 golas in junior (and 8 last year with the Avalanche).
Sometimes a NHL team sees the ingredients in propsects that they feel their club needs and guys play temselves on to rosters.
I think the hawks understand perfectly what they need, and their philosophy will be an ongoing re-assessment of these talent picks and acquisitions.
Believe me, they ceratainly know what has been subtracted and that there may be some give & take in so far as if a kid plays in Chicago given the needs
That all being said,( and not trying to change the subject but,) Beach showing some scoring dominance and better elevation of the linemates he was handed at the propsects camp might have solidified him as a "mother club must-have" Hawk despite his lofty Cap hit of 1,170,833 million.
If he doesn't show he can contribute as both a scoring/set-up guy, there is little reason to carry a second fist-fighter (with little understanding of when to go and when NT to, no less!) at that price tag until the play-offs.
I know it all sounds rather negative, but believe me no one will be more happy and praising when (and IF) any of these great prospects makes a mark at the moajor league level.
I want them all to be weapons, threats, and solid on dee.
But it is unrealistic to think that each draftee, acquisition, and farmhand can make the jump and be
even journeyman NHLers. The Blackhawks at least has quanity and hopefully patience to bring about smooth transistions when they are ready.
Hey don't ask me questions as I answer them Bill Clinton like-full circle.
Vishevskiy is NHL ready. Salary or not I believe he will be on this team. Either Niemi will have to take less or Lalonde is at Rockford getting some experience or Henry does not make it.
agree.
I've read they are waiting on Boynton to tell them a number if he's ready to play another season. He's on the fence about retiring.
Replace Niemi with Turco at $1.9.
The overpayment for Hjalm has ended Niemi's run in Chicago.
Did you trade Crawford, or just keep him down for cap reasons?
That's one heck of a lot of rookies, Wiz!
And just a thought, I don't see this team getting past Vancouver, even if they do make it to that far. Not without Buff. I do hope I'm wrong.
Looking at capgeek things aren't that bad at this point. Sure there won't be the proven depth that was on the team last year but there is room for optimism.
Looking at a projected roster (my projection so not expert analysis):
F: Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, Bolland, Brouwer, Bickell (assuming same contract as Skille), Stalberg, Kopecky, Skille, Reasoner, Dowell
D: Keith, Seabrook, Hjalm, Campbell, Scott
G: Crawford
That leaves them $3.2 million to sign at least Niemi and a defenseman. If they play the cap game like last year and move a guy up and down to save during off days (which there will be more off days this year with the condensed schedule) then they might even have some space built up for an acquisition at the trade deadline. That only works if they sign Niemi for a reasonable deal. The only goalie that got a huge deal was Halak. With Mason, Ellis, Nittymaki, Leighton, and now Harding all signing for less then $2 million, I would hope the market is set there. We shall see.
I think we aren't in that bad of shape. There are a lot of goals to replace and roles to be replaced as well. There is no reason this team shouldn't contend for the division and make the playoffs. If they don't contend or miss the playoffs then it will be more about the players they decided to keep then the players they decided to trade.
Could be Toivenen and Niemmi.
Hawks scored 262 goals during the regular season last year (13 Shorties / 52 Power Play Goals and 197 even strength goals).
The loss of Steeger, Ladd, Buff, Madden, Fraser and Eager up front represents losing an alarming 30% of the total or 78 goals heading into next year.
Other skill players will still get time on the PP next year so you don't have to worry as much about replacing that scoring. These 7 guys only scored 10 PP goals so this group represents and even larger share even strength goals last year at 35%
So how do you replace 68 even strengths goals? Won't be easy, but it may not be the end of the world everyone is predicting.....
1. You hope to have Hossa healthy for a full season. This guy scored 22 even strength goals in only 57 games last year which stil led the entire team! You have him play a full season healthy and he replaces 10 of the goals right there.
2. Dave Bolland plays a full season healthy and he should add 10 even strength goals.
3. Viktor Stalberg could make everyone quickly forget about Versteeg. He is big, fast and scored 10 even strength goals in only 39 games for Toronto playing with crap linemates. He also scored 7 goals in his last 21 games which is a 27 goal pace. Playing on a better system in Chicago with our solid D moving the puck there is no reason this guy won't score 20 even stength goals this year.
4. If he is still on the team Reasoner can match his 3 year average of 10 goals next year.
5. Kopecky can match his second half production pace of a 20 goal season giving you another 10 even strength goals.
6. On the low end assume Bickell, Dowell and one more forward punch in a combined total of 20 even strength goals.
If these guys can deliver the above you actually have 80 even strength goals vs. the 68 that you lost!
Certainly guys like Ladd, Madden, Versteeg and Buff contributed in more ways than just even strength goals, but if the rest of the "core" remains healthy there is no reason the Hawks can't be one of the top 5 teams in the league again next year. Hopefully things get even better the following year as the cap problem improves and the young talent continues to develop.
We will miss those guys. However if you look at their goals/points per minute of ice time and their goals/points per game they are only average or below average producers individually and as a group by NHL standards. They also were playing with some great offensive players and they played plenty of minutes when the opposition was behind and they were overcommitting to offense. Before last season this guys were not regarded as having a huge importance in the overall production of the team. Nor were the expectations so great. So lets not worry too much just yet.
The cap hit of the bonuses due to Kane and Toews(4.1 Million) are what is really killing the Hawks this year. If they didn't have that additional hit, they'd be in good shape to sign Niemi and fill out the roster, assuming Huet ends up in Rockford or Europe.
Those obviously come off the books next year, so they'll have more ability to manuever. As a result, this year we'll need to be patient with low priced guys filling out the back end of the roster. Tim's suggestion to perhaps see if you can trade the likes of Reasoner and Kopecky would probably hurt the team, since the cap hits of the replacements are in the same neighborhood, and give you a much smaller net gain in salary cap relief than the probable improvement in play on the ice. I would first let Niemi walk. It's more important to keep Sharp than it would be to bite the bullet and go with a low budget goalie for a year, unless of course they can find a taker for Campbell.
You mean in good shape to over pay for talent (Niemi), and put themselves in a tougher position next year to sign better, more needed talent (Seabrook/Brouwer/[Kopecky?])? I think the 4.1 million cap hit is a good lesson for the 'Hawks/NHL who have been overpaying talent for years now. If they are going to over pay a guy(s) to use up that 4.1, it actually puts them at a greater deficit in the future. Just an example for you. If you spend that 4.1 million to pay who ever for how ever many years, how do you sign Seabrook, Brouwer, and Kopecky next season? You figure combined they have a 5.5 cap hit, but how do you sign all of them if the salary cap doesn't get increased by 4 million and they don't trade anyone? I think it actually puts the 'Hawks at a great advantage for '11-12, and will allow them to maneuver salary for Sharp when he's due up the following year.
It looks like Skille has also agreed (as Makarov has) to an unannounced unsigned contract.
The bonus money hit was a huge - a 4mil payout that only pays out next year unless...the team repeats, and that hasn't been happening much if the CAP area..
The basic idea is for the strong farm to start to show they can supplant the players whose contracts are ending. All teams decide the individual players worth, if it is worth the dicussed increase in the player's wages. if not the team uses the trade deadline or draft meetings to get "something" and move. We just didn't get to see that happen here until the axes feel in large swoops.
Niemi's agent, in his recent interview, sounded like a guy smart enough to know there is a good chance that using his bargaining chip of arbitration, might HURT the size of his client's chances. The evry fact there are little past history of big goalie arbitration wins, and the fact that the league does show an abundance of available in the UFA pool, because teams don't want to to payout like days of yore...Niemi's agent, Bill Zito, says he is more than willing to get it done before the case is heard, and how his client wants to stay be part of the hawks...
Creatively structured multi-year deal might be work well long term, but YOU will always be a in a situation were the management is looking at the deadest weight, the less maximized bang for buck players, the ones that seem on the downline slide due to age, injuries, and production.
It is all about not only drafting really well in the first round, but also finding serviable players later on.
Honestly I am surpirsed the hawks are in as good of a position as they are after "purge", and the Hjarmmer match. And it is partially due to the upside they might choose to fill openings, IF they play admirally...
How do you guys think our core players stack up against some of the better teams in the league? Many are taking the glass is half empty approach because of the depth the team has lost. Maybe if we take a closer look at our core group and they compare favorably with other teams things may not be as dire as many think. Is there a clear cut favorite for the Cup going into the season? At this point I would say it's pretty wide open. I know if you listen to Canuck fans they are already mapping their parade route. The Hawks still have talent. Are they as deep as last year obviously they are not. You never know there may be some of the new players that surprise us. If that happens the Hawks could be in the thick of things again.
the core of this team is just as good as any other in the NHL . They are also young.
The strength of a good hockey team is down the middle. Name a team that has a better top 4 D than the hawks and three centres like Toews , Sharp , Bolland . Name me a better #2 centre in the league than Sharp who makes 3.9 mil or less .
about those euro so called prospects, we just laid out with the increase, 10 large for tix!!i want to see nhl ready us and canadien kids, not a bunch of roster fillers ect....josef marha, denis arkhipov,retro van arx..ect!! increases 2 straight years now were being told we'll be lucky to make the top 8 after just winning a cup! i don't know about you guys but i am not settling for anything less than a trip to the finals! what are they gonna do, hit us with another increase next year after our season ends april10th!(florida marlins)!this will be our 40th year for season tix, those bad memories of the 90's and early 00'S are still fresh wounds still blistering!someone ask mr cub 1 and 2 if the plan a rebate after a non playoff year next year!....buff and ladd prediction after next year...ladd,vanc& buff, detroit!...nice going boys!.we got marha and arkhipov 2010!!