Cubs hope for no ill wind
We’ll keep an eye on the flags today with Ted Lilly pitching against the Phillies. Ted’s a flyball pitcher who ranks 53rd in the NL in groundouts/air outs at 0.61. The league leader is Tim Hudson at 3.80.
“You can’t walk people,” Lou said. “You can’t put people on. You’ve got to make the other team earn it. I think that’s very important. Also, if you can keep the ball down, it helps tremendously. That’s been Teddy’s problem the last couple starts, pitching up in the zone a little bit. The ball’s been leaving the ballpark.”
Lineup vs. Joe Blanton:
Theriot, 2B
Colvin, RF
Lee, 1B
Ramirez, 3B
Byrd, CF
Soriano, LF
Castro, SS
Soto, C
Lilly, P
Ted’s flyball rate overall is 51.3 percent and his HR/FB percentage is 10.4.
Aramis Ramirez is as hot as the weather. For July, he’s at .366/.395/.805 for an OPS of 1.200. He’s 15-for-41 with 4 doubles, 1 triple, 4 homers and 13 RBI.
Derrek Lee for July is .268/.348/.390 for a .738 OPS. He’s 11-for-41 with 2 doubles a homer and 2 RBI.
Tyler Colvin’s 12 homers lead NL rookies. His season line is .268/.320/.536. The wOBA is .368, and the ISO is .268.
The Cubs have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 45 games. Their record is 26-19 in those games, reflecting the season-long offensive drought. Here are the MLB leaders in allowing 3 or fewer runs and their records:
Braves (41-13)
Padres (42-5)
Yankees (45-2)
Cardinals (35-11)
Cubs (26-19)
Giants (33-12)
Rays (35-10)
Twins (36-7)
Mariners (30-13)
White Sox (34-9)
MINOR-LEAGUE ROUNDUP
One guy we've been watching in the minors is righty Trey McNutt. He recently was promoted from Class A Peoria to Class A Daytona. He ran his record to 2-0 with a 3.72 ERA at Daytona last night in a 4-2 victory over Fort Myers. Since being drafted last year, McNutt is 11-1 as a pro.
"It was probably my best outing here," McNutt told the Daytona Beach News Journal. "I didn't walk anybody, got ahead of the hitters and let my defense make plays. No walks, first time all year, so I think I accomplished something doing that."
Daytona manager Buddy Bailey had this to say to the paper: "Pretty amazing, but you have to tip your hat to our scouting department."
Also at Daytona, catcher Michael Brenly (Bob's son) extended his hitting streak to 14 games. His line is .301/.347/.403 with 9 doubles, 4 homers, 29 RBI, 12 walks and 34 strikeouts.
At Class AAA Iowa, the I-Cubs fell 7-6 in 10 innings to Oklahoma City. Starter Casey Coleman went 4 innings, giving up 5 hits and 4 runs. Austin Bibens-Dirkx made his first relief appearance at Triple-A and tossed 3 scoreless innings.
Class AA Tennessee won its third straight, 15-5 over Chattanooga. Rafael Dolis (1-2, 3.86) worked 5 innings, giving up 3 hits and 2 runs. He walked none and struck out five. The Smokies got homers from Matt Spencer (10), Russ Canzler (11), Robinson Chirinos (11) and Josh Vitters (6). Vitters’ homer came as a pinch hitter.
For Peoria (A), Nick Struck improved to 3-8 with a 3.61 ERA as he worked 6 innings of 3-hit shutout ball as the Chiefs beat Dayton 3-1. Struck, taken in the ninth round last year, walked none and struck out nine. He snapped a six-game losing streak.
At Boise (A), the Hawks beat Salem-Keizer 10-7. Recently signed draft pick Matt Szczur extended his hitting streak to seven games as he went 3-for-4, with a walk, a double and 2 runs. He’s 12-for-28 in the streak.
pinch hits for Soto?
Yeah, behind 3 runs, you take a guy out with a .400 OBP vs RH pitching and put in a guy with a .340 OBP vs RH.
I generally like Lou, but he makes some really boneheaded moves sometimes.
I don't get starting Theriot all the time either. The worst offensive player on the team with regular at bats and leads off all the time.
Bruce,
You looked at 10 teams above including the Cubs. If you remove the Cubs from the sample group, those 9 teams are a combined 331-82 in games where they give up 3 runs or less. That's an 80% winning percentage on average. Had the Cubs won 80% of their 45 "3 run or less" games, they'd be 36-9 as opposed to 26-19. That 10 game swing is the difference between leading the division and stinking up the joint.
Hoops
Ted Lilly turned in a quality start today with benefit of only 1 groundball out on a hot day with the wind blowing out. The line:
7 innings, 4 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts, 1 wild pitch, 2 home runs. He threw 110 pitches, 70 for strikes.
The only groundball out came in the second, when Ben Francisco grounded to third base. Lilly got 10 outs via flyouts.
A bad start would've been 3 in a row I think...now his trade value should be as good as it can be. Give him a standing O, that SHOULD be his last start as a Cub!!!
Probably won't be though.
Better not to trade Lilly.... did you see what Hendry was looking at from the Mets in return?? One of three A-level pitchers.... each of which had ERA's well above 5.00
Where was it mentioned as far as specific players Hendry was looking at from the Mets in a possible Lilly trade?
Pitchers Kyle Allen or Jeurys Familia of the Port St. Lucie Mets or Robert Carson of the Binghamton Mets were the prospects that Hendry was reported to have his eyes on for Lilly.
Thanks but I was wondering if you could post "where" it was reported because I missed it and was curious about the source.
everything you read. Hendry and Wilken are usually pretty good at picking out players for trades. Cubs will get players as good as 2 high draft picks, or they won't trade him.
I think that you're over-valueing someone of Lilly's age that's a summer rental.
you understand the arbitration system then. Lilly will be a type A free agent. The Cubs will get 2 top picks as compensation if someone else signs him to a deal, and there is little question that Lilly will be offered at least a 3 year deal when he hits free agency. It would be ridiculous to trade him for less than that, and the Cubs simply won't do it. It is simply the cost of trying to compete in the playoffs.
Doubtful anyone offers him 3 years as a 35 year old pitcher that throws 85.
And I doubt anyone offers him arbitration, risking paying him $14 million next season.
Thanks for the roundup, Bruce.
Another fan brought up online, made me wonder... had you thought of a new nickname that can summarize the young rookies of the Cubs? or maybe use it on a headline?
I'm talking about the three "C"-s, Castro, Colvin and Cashner.
I had fun with these names and came up with the "The Youth Must-C." I hope this goes along with fan expectation of a youth movement.
You might also combine the names into one word, for example: The "Casvin-s" (CAStro+CAShner+colVIN).
Or, as John G. called, "The Cash Bin", if the rookie-triplets deliver...
How about if we just call them by their real names and let the White Sox do that sort of sophomoric stuff???
hey there's an idea.
At least you guys got some laugh. The Sox doesn't need to do these. Right now, they are playing better baseball than the other side of this town. Their fans can enjoy whatever the team is doing right now.
The present Cubs is miserable. I hope some divergence with word play will keep creativity going, and make fans think about the future and potential of the ballclub. That's all.