Cubs' holiday-season shopping continues
Back from the winter meetings and back after attending the very moving Ron Santo service of last Friday. Thanks to all for the posts on that blog. I’ll be off for Christmas vacation starting later this week, but we’ll get to a few things here today and see how the upcoming days shape up. Here are some thoughts to get us started:
--The Cubs continue to look at former Diamondbacks standout Brandon Webb, who has been beset by shoulder problems the last couple of years. To sign Webb, the Cubs would prefer a low base with incentives.
--Matt Garza is still very much in play for the Cubs, who are still trying to get a hand on the Tampa Bay Rays’ appetite for moving the pitcher. Last week at the winter meetings, Rays manager Joe Maddon said Garza would be pitching for Tampa next year. Of course, managers say a lot of things (as we know from the last couple we’ve had on the North Side) based on their own self-interest. It’s still a story worth following.
--As we wrote last week, the only prospects the Cubs won’t move are Brett Jackson and Chris Archer. All the others would be on the table in trade talks. That includes Josh Vitters and Jay Jackson.
--The Cubs should finalize and announce their minor-league coaching and manager assignments later this week. They’re in the final stages now.
--The winter meetings are but one way-station in the long off-season. It's always nice to get something done at the meetings _ it's good for publicity purposes, and heck, you might as well do something if all the teams are there. But most teams' business is far from finished after the meetings. Checking a couple of past deals, the Cubs traded Milton Bradley last Dec. 18. Heck, they signed Bradley a month after the 2008 winter meetings. Kosuke Fukudome signed Dec. 19, 2007, after the meetings. And the Cubs made it a mixed New Year's Eve in 2008, signing Aaron MIles and trading Mark DeRosa.
--Hall of Fame ballots have gone out. I’ll put up my annual Hall of Fame blog and let you know whom I’m voting for and why. Should be fun.
Not sure if this is the same guy that posts sometimes on this blog and is Bruce's nemesis, but in the comments section in the Spellman article about Wood possibly signing with the Cubs he raises a good counterpoint that may be in the back of many of our minds:
"2-year contract. Not a good idea. Wood was either bad or hurt for a year and a half with Indians. His good, late run with Yanks doesn't make up for that. I certainly don't need to list his voluminous injury history. His stuff is still at a high level, but his control is very inconsistent, and when he's like that, he also can get hit. So you've got a guy who's unlikely to hold up physically in any year and may or may not pitch well. Take that kind of risk for one year, not two.
This is as much or more about bringing back a feel-good Cub to sell tickets.
Sentiment should not drive baseball decisions. But Hendry, whom Rickettts should have fired, was surely swayed by his affection for Wood.
While I am a Cubs fan, I like the W Sox signing of J Crain a whole lot more. He's consistent and durable, two rather big pluses that are negatives with Wood."
"This is as much or more about bringing back a feel-good Cub to sell tickets."
I think its almost ALL about bringing Wood back to sell tickets and is a GENIUS marketing move.
There is no downside to this move from the Cubs business perspective, except injury, but that's the case for anyone.
From a baseball point of view, again, no real negative impact as it doesn't really block anyone of value and *maybe* nudges the Cubs to put Cashner in the AAA rotation.
They're still doing what I think they're doing: Not going to compete in 2011, but fooling people into thinking they are trying while at the same time keeping financial commitments in 2012 and beyond to a minimum.
As for Crain....I wouldn't EVER give a RP a 3 year contract.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/relievers-are-not-worth-multi-y...
Boozer, I agree 100% with your post. You may not believe it, but I actually agree with you most of the time. Scarey as that may sound.
I do think it is a significant signing in terms of helping the team though. It gives the Cubs the ability to move Cashner to the rotation. It gives the Cubs a player in the bullpen who is a good influence on younger players. There are many benefits to this signing, beyond what he brings as a pitcher. In my eyes, there are really no downsides to this deal, either from the business perspective or the baseball side.
If the Yankees take Zambrano off the Cubs hands, I'll be ecstatic. I know it's far fetched, and lots have to happen before hand, but that would be a big step in freeing up some of these backloaded deals.
I've always been a Wood fan. I hope he comes back. Pure class act guy, who will do anything to help the team win, and not complain.
Other than Pujols or Fielder... who out there next year would be better than Aramis or even Zambrano (especially when you factor in the money we'd have to eat to move him)? The pickings are a lot slimmer than people realize. It's hard to believe but shedding these dreadful contracts may not be as positive a step as we'd like to believe.
Oh, as for Pujols and Fielder I suspect both are unlikely. But IF they were to pursue them I do not think we'd need Zambrano off the books to pursue either. I would think Pena, Aramis, Silva/Bradley, and Fukudome should be enough.
I think that if Ramirez has a good year this year, and Vitters is not ready, the Cubs might exercise his option. But only if he has a very good season.
On Pujols and Fielder, it is just hard for me to see the Cubs commiting 200 million to one guy for 7 years (which is what it will take for him to leave the Cardinals) or giving Fielder 25 million, which is what Boras is going to try to get. I don't really see much difference between Dunn and Fielder, except that Fielder is probably a hair better on defense and a little younger. But basically, they are the same player, at least for the next 3 years.
Freeing up the contracts gives the Cubs more options, for free agents, trades, etc. And as you have heard many times, you can finish in 4th place with a 75 million payroll and it doesn't hurt as bad as finishing in 4th with a 135 million payroll.
I dont know of many long term deals that turn out favorable for the team, other then maybe the A-rod contract in Texas. 200 million for 7 years is crazy...even for a guy like Pujols. The Soriano deal should be a reminder each time the Cubs get the idea of doing a high dollar, long term deal.
I also agree on Ramirez. I would be shocked if he doesn't have a great year. Especially with his deal about to expire.
If I was going to gamble on any player in baseball on a long term deal, Pujols would be that guy. His combination of power and plate discipline and good fielding are not the type of things that decline quickly. If the Cubs were to sign him, I wouldn't be sad. I simply don't expect it.
I am impressed. A very positive post. Good to see you turning over a new leaf.
Things like this get me excited, and will be showered with positives.
Hendry has got to get this done.....Especially with Rothschild in New York.
On a cold winter day and nothing more. Just talk...
IF it comes down to the Yankees wanting to make a deal for Zambrano and knowing that they were willing to include Montero in a deal for a Cliff Lee rental last season.
Does anyone think that Hendry would want Montero in return now that he committed $10 million to Pena?
I'm kinda feeling that Hendry's strategy would be to dump as much of the Zambrano contract as possible and pick up as many A or AA pitching prospects as he could.
I would think it might look something like Zambrano and Wellington Castillo to the Yanks for Montero and Chamberlain or a pitching prospect.
Cashman would die of laughter before Hendry could finish saying Chamberlain....
By the way, Wittenmyer's article today is my favorite, so far. He says the Yankees did NOT even discuss Zambrano, the Cubs have NOT given any indication they intend to move him (and, in fact, have stated the opposite)... then he proceeds to discuss a possible trade. Welcome to the slowest offseason in recent memory.
there was a lot of overreaction to that Bill Madden article yesterday. It seemed very speculative on Madden's part.
He'll be 21 years old all of next season.
I don't think the Yanks are as hard up to move him as people on this blog make it seem.
Cubs and Yanks aren't going to worry about a 21 year old spending the year in AAA again while trying to shore up his catching.
I don't think anyone is saying that. I certainly am not. However, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the Yankees would move him. In fact, it is not a stretch at all, seeing as how they signed Russell Martin and they have another young catcher and Posada.
It also could be that they don't mind trading Montero because they know next year they are going to let Posada go, and try to sign Pujols to be their DH/1st baseman (to go along with Tex). They also have Gary Sanchez who is a better catching prospect (though not the same offensive player) than Montero.
Oh, and I agree, the Cubs would move Montero to 1st base and give him most of the year at AAA to learn the position.
there is a good chance they move Montero. But not for Zambrano. You make it sound like the Yanks HAVE to move him and if Zambrano is the best offer, they'll take it (while throwing in Chamberlain?!??!!). They won't. Zambrano will not bring a prospect like Montero.
I don't think they'll be going after Pujols when they'll need ARod to take over DH duties in a couple years.
I don't say that or imply that anywhere. I don't think the Yankees have to move him or even WANT to move him. But they might, just the same.
I don't see them moving Montero for Z or Dempster. Of the two, maybe Dempster, but I have my doubts on that. I don't think either one of those guys are game changers for them, enough to get them to make a move.
I wouldn't be all that stunned if the Yankees decided to sign a 2nd tier rotation arm (although off the top, I can't think of who), sign a few bullpen and bench pieces, and wait until midseason to see what starters are available. WHo knows, a lucky year out of Burnett and their need isn't as glaring anymore (and as inconsistent as Burnett is, he definitely has the stuff to have a good year).
DeRosa far behind? kidding, just kidding.
Where are they getting their cash from? I'll be a little sad if this true, but it will pass quickly. You'd have to think he'll be given chance to close in that pen. Kaplan who thinks he knows all swore Wood would never play for Sox, so maybe this all smoke
My bet is that he goes back to the Yankees. I can't see him going to the White Sox if he has other options on the table.
White Sox signed Crain (3 years/13 mil), and according to Kaplan, Wood is close to rejoining the Cubs. If so, color me mildly surprised, as I thought he'd go looking for a closing job. There's still several teams out there searching for closers. That said, if he's back, awesome. That may improve the chances of Cashner getting back to regular rotation work. A back end of Marshall/Wood/Marmol would look real good, and allow the club a little more leeway in the middle relief to mix and match with youngsters.
Anyhow, the Kaplan link
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/david-kaplan-chicago-sports/2010/12/cubs...
Good to see Wood back in the fold. A solid bullpen is a big benefit to any team. There is nothing more demoralizing than losing games late. This certainly improves the Cubs chances to be a decent team. It is very important (especially for a team which should be challenged to score runs) to keep the lead when they get it.
Also, he should be able to mentor Cashner and Archer.
Would love to see an opening day rotation of Dempster, Garza, Wells, Cashner, Archer. That would be a huge step in the right direction to see if these guys are what the Cubs hope they are.
if the cubs go with both cashner and archer in the rotation to start the year. 1 ... maybe (and even then, I have my doubts, Archer still has a lot of work to do on consistency, command, and his changeup). i highly doubt both. It would be somewhat irresponsible to go with both, knowing how heavy a burden that would likely leave on the pen (as both youngsters would need their innings to be controlled a bit).
should not see the big leagues until at least June.
that is absolutely correct. He should not, to delay free agency and arbitration. But the Cubs have stated they are going to give him a long look in the spring.
Everything coming out of the Cubs, to include from Quade, says Cashner is pitching out of the pen in 2011.
Where's Zambrano?
Zambrano will be back with the Cubs. There is no chance in hell the Yankees are going to have interest in a pitcher whose peripherals and downturn in velocity flash like red light. Not to mention his manic-depressive mental state to go along with juicy contract.
Maybe you and Zambrano can share a room.
had almost a whole day without him, but today he is back, ignorance rolling and spewing like a volcano.
I don't think he can help himself.........it's like a train wreck; you don't want to watch but feel compelled to until the last wheel comes off the rail.
say the Cubs and Yanks make a trade for Z and the Cubs got back Joba, who would go into the pen. Then, Hendry made a trade for Greinke. And then made a trade for Garza. Rotation sets up like Greinke, Garza, Dempster, Wells and one of Coleman, Samardzija, Silva, or Cashner. ( I have to assume that Archer would be gone).
Say they sign Wood for the pen. Bullpen would be Marmol, Wood, Chamberlain, Marshall, Grabow, and 1 of the guys who don't make the rotation.
Far fetched yes. But I am wondering if the Cubs are in contention with the moves. Offense is still suspect, and Brett Jackson is probably gone.
Rotation would be formidable, but probably not better than the Cardinals. Definitely not up to the Phillies or Giants.
CF - Byrd
SS - Castro
1b - Pena
3b - Ramirez
RF - Colvin
C - Soto
LF - Soriano
2b - DeWitt/Barney
I don't know if trying to make these moves makes sense or not. However, if the Yankees are interested, the Cubs have to trade Z.
The pitching would be solid, but you'd need to get a bit of luck from that offense, in all likelihood, to have a contending club.
I do think a rotation of Greinke/Garza/Dempster/Wells would compare well with Wainwright/Carpenter/Garcia/?.
From ESPN rumor mill
UPDATE: Bill Madden of the New York Daily News reports the Yankees will explore the trade market for Zambrano.
Read it.... Direct from NY and not Chicago:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2010/12/15/2010-12-15...
Maybe the market IS actually coming to the Cubs now instead of the Cubs begging with hat in hand.
Low risk...
If the Yankees were willing to go 4+ years for Lee at $24 million per, it would be a no-brainer for them to consider picking up Zambrano for 2 years at $18 million per.
There's no doubt in my mind that Z would behave himself as the frustrations and lack of focus & discipline that caused him to go off the deep end with the Cubs would be non-existant with the Yankees.
Not likely Z would ever try showing up Arod or Jeter. I think he knows that would not fly and I would guess Girardi would do absolutely nuts.
One, I bet Kerry Wood re-signs with the Yankees.
Two, there was rumor floated yesterday that the Cardinals may have interest in trading Chris Carpenter to free up nearly $14 million per season that can be allocated to getting a new contract done on Albert Pujols this winter. If Carpenter is available then you just know the Yankees are going to work like maniacs to get him. But hard to see where those two teams match up in a deal. The Cardinals already have Yadier Molina behind the plate and Pujols at 1st, so Jesus Montero is doubtful intriging to them.
Three, Matt Garza or John Shields of Tampa is bound to be traded. But I doubt either would go to a division rival in the Yankees.
Four, Zach Greinke is reported to not interest the Yankees because they don't believe he could withstand the pressure of playing in pinstripes.
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So that tells me the Yankees would SURELY have very major interest in Ryan Dempster if indeed he was made available.
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/images/admin/BeatDeadHorse.gif
Reading mlbtr and a Rosenthal link, it says that Kerry is searching for 2 year/12 mil. If he has to come down a little, say, to 2/10, it sure sounds like the Cubs could get in on the action if they backload it a bit (say, a 3/7 split).
Anyhow, the rosenthal link that I am referencing is:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/new-york-yankees-seattle-mariners-Fel...
Nothing really new in there. He also throws out some Cubs scenarios, like dealing for Garza (or Greinke), moving Cashner to the rotation, and then dealing off a guy like Gorzelanny/Wells/ or Silva. Also suggests the Cubs are still willing to move Fukudome and knows they have to send money, but says that keeping him isn't the worst thing, since he provides the OF some needed depth considering how Byrd faltered and Soriano is who he is.
Ryan Dempster for Jesus Montero, and possibly other considerations. Montero can flat out hit the cover off the ball and could be a wonderful long-term answer at 1st base (given the presence of Soto at catcher and the fact that Montero is not strong behind the plate).
There's so much logic in such a move. Of course it won't happen.
Great idea but Jim Hendry would never be smart enough to make the deal. Also think the Yankees could get more than Dempster for Montero.
I doubt it. Dempster is a pretty dog-gone good pitcher, eats innings, and is signed to a relatively decent contract. Plus there is no long term commitment. Dempster is not a bad contract either.
cubmadness I agree with you, Dempster worth more then Montero and Joba.
I would be happy with an even, or near even swap of Montero for Dempster from the Cubs perspective. I would like a guy like Chamberlain also, who has probably nearly worn out his welcome in NY, as Pie and others have done in Chicago.
The Cubs need Montero and they need to lose salary.
I don't think Jesus Montero is worth MORE than Dempster though. Not to a team who is wanting to win and who has Russell Martin, Posada, a youngster and another very good catching prospect in the system.
I think the fact that it isn't a long term commitment makes it less likely that they would fork over Montero in a deal. They were willing to do it for a rental of Lee last year because they viewed him as a potential difference-maker - would they feel the same way about Dempster? Hard to see anyone feeling that much love for Ryan, much as I think he is still underappreciated for the strong pitching he's offered the last 3 years.