Cubs to send 4 prospects for Garza
Would you give up Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer and Robinson Chirinos to get Matt Garza. The Cubs are getting set to do just that, I've learned this morning. An announcement is not imminent for several reasons (physical exams, for one), but that is the package (based on several conversations with reliable sources I've had last night and early this morning) the Cubs will to give up to get what they believe is a No. 1 or No. 2 pitcher. I've also learned there may be additional parts to the deal for each team.
UPDATE: Sources tell me the Cubs will send outfielder Sam Fuld to the Rays and that the Rays will send OF Fernando Perez and another player to Chicago.
Although reports earlier this week of an imminent trade might have been premature, there's no doubt Cubs GM Jim Hendry is working feverishly to get Garza. This morning, we'll take a look at some of the factors in such a trade, if it takes place in the next few days or not until later or not at all.
Whether you like or don't like Hendry, one of his traits is dogged persistence. As I've written before, Hendry tends to focus like the proverbial laser beam on what he wants, and he either gets it or damn near dies trying. It seems to me, based on several conversations, Hendry is doing all he can to pry Garza from the Rays, who have Garza, B.J. Upton and Andy Sonnanstine as arbitration eligible players this winter.
The only so-called untouchables on the Cubs are shortstop Starlin Castro, pitcher Andrew Cashner and center-field prospect Brett Jackson. To me, Archer should be in that group, but you have to give up something to get something, and that’s the price of poker, as Hendry likes to say.
The good news for those who follow Cubs prospects is that pitcher Trey McNutt does not appear to be part of any deal. Nor does third baseman Josh Vitters, although opinion is split on whether Vitters remains a top-flight prospect. Lee is a middle infielder. Archer was the Cubs' minor-league pitcher of the year in 2010, and outfielder Guyer was their minor-league player of the year. Chirinos is 25 and is a catcher converted from an infielder.
I can hear the howls of protest now: The Cubs have spent all this time building a good farm system, and now Hendry is going to trade it all away. Those protests aren't entirely baseless. On the other hand, the Cubs will tell you that part of a having a good farm system is using that talent for your own club as well as to obtain major-league talent.
Except for one trade, Hendry has done a good job with these types of trades. See Rich Harden, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. The one big clunker was the trade of three pitchers, including Ricky Nolasco to Florida for Juan Pierre between the 2005 and 2006 seasons. The Cubs overrated Pierre's strengths and underrated his weaknesses. They also look bad because they traded three young pitchers for a guy they had for only one year.
Their take on a Garza deal will be that they have Garza under control for several years and that he's a possible top-of-the-rotation pitcher. The first part is true; the second part is open to question. The Cubs also will tell you Garza has pitched in pressure and playoff situations, whereas a pitcher such as Zach Greinke (who went to the Brewers) has not.
Hendry has repeatedly said, and I think he believes it, that the Cubs are 3-4 moves away from contending in the NL Central again. Garza would be the third major move this winter, when the Cubs have signed first baseman Carlos Pena and reliever Kerry Wood, getting Wood for only $1.5 million and perhaps freeing up the money it would take to withstand even an arbitration hit by Garza.
A large segment of the Cubs' fan base has turned against Hendry after two straight disappointing seasons and with the 2004-06 disasters not forgotten, either.
Cubs owner Tom Ricketts seems still to have great faith in Hendry, who is signed through 2012. In the back of his mind, though, Hendry has to feel that the Cubs have to win this year; Ricketts might not have wanted to eat two years of Hendry's contract, but one might be palatable. Even though Ricketts has expressed his belief in the farm system, I doubt he'd veto this type of Garza scenario if he thought it could get the Cubs back into position for the playoffs.
Things have been very quiet around Wrigley Field the last few days, with Hendry hunkered down. Turns out it was a little too quiet.
ok, the roster is starting to take shape....Going to take some good seasons out of several guys for the Cubs to contend, but it is not out of the question. Here are the keys as I see them.
Zambrano - He has to be closer to the old Zambrano, than the guy from early last year. Hopefully he comes into camp in shape and motivated. And hopefully Quade will be able to keep him in line.
Ramirez - Ramirez has to be healthy, and he should be motivated. He is looking directly at free agency, so he should be motivated to have a good year. The Cubs may renew him if he has a good year.
Pena - For the Cubs to contend, Pena has to bounce back to at least 2009 form. Hopefully moving to the easier league will help that some, and moving away from the AL East and to Wrigley from the Trop (to a hitters park, from a pitchers park).
Cashner - Cashner is going to get his opportunity to start. If he seizes it, and pitches well like he did in 2009 and early 2010 in the rotation, then the Cubs could have a phenomenally deep rotation.
Colvin - Colvin has to show he is for real and continue to improve. Improved plate discipline would be a good start.
Right now, it looks alot like this.
CF - Byrd
SS - Castro
1b - Pena
3b - Ramirez
RF - Colvin
C - Soto
LF - Soriano
2b - DeWitt
Garza, Dempster, Zambrano, Cashner, Wells
Marmol, Wood, Marshall, Diamond or Mateo, Grabow, Russell or Maine, Samardzija or Coleman.
I still think the Cubs have a move or two in them. I still see a RH hitting OF to spell Colvin in RF against tough lefties. Would love to see a true leadoff man somewhere as well. The lineup would be deeper with Byrd hitting about 6 or 7.
Was watching the Hot Stove show on MLB earlier this week and they said something I found hilarious. After the Beltre signing, they were looking at the 3B market for FA's in 2012 and had Ramirez and Bautista listed. Their comment - Ramirez probably "not the same level" as Beltre, but could still be an "attractive piece" for teams. I thought wow - these guys really do nothing more than judge how players did in the previous season. Beltre was a complete bust for almost his entire contract with Mariners in the past decade. He signed a one-year deal last year (ala - this year's 1st basemen FA's) and had a great year. Suddenly - he's a no-brainer in the eyes of these experts to be consistently great.
Ramirez is the same age as Beltre and has consistently one of the best hitting 3rd basemen in baseball for 7 years, then gets injured and struggles for a year, and now he's not "at the same level as Beltre"?
I'll give you two people that are key for next year - Wood and Ramirez. Wood needs to stay healthy and pitch like he did with the Yankees. Ramirez needs to re-establish himself as one of the best hitters in the NL. Other than that they need to stay healthy like the Bears did this year.
Oh - and they need a leadoff hitter
... and maybe have their new 1st baseman come closer to what D. Lee provided at the same age.
Lots of stars need to align perfectly.
It sounds like you are back on the bandwagon. You were depressing me Wednesday/ Thursday with your proclamations the Cubs could not contend in 2011, and that you were against the Garza trade when it was just 3 prospects (not 4).
Cubs gave up more value than Garza was probably worth, but they had a tremendous need for a top of the rotation starter. Hendry saw that he could not let this guy (ie - the laser beam) go and just through in more prospects.
I still like it though because I value Garza more highly than a lot of guys. And I believe (and desperately want) the Cubs to contend next year, and this move puts them back in the discussion for the division crown, and still makes them stronger for 2012/13.
Interesting in that you show a 12-man pitching staff and leave Gorzelanny out of it for right now.
I think Gorzelanny is either the long man, or traded. Silva either wins a rotation job or will be traded, released or DLed. JMO
Buster Olney has his column up on ESPN in which he analyzes the trade. He talks to several unnamed "talent evaluators" , a couple of which talk about how the Cubs system is weak and how Archer would be a #3 or 4 prospect on many teams. Funny, he doesn't mention other scouting organizations who say the Cubs have some of the best depth of any system. And as far as Archer being #3 or 4...it is possible that he would be #3 or 4 on some teams, but not many. I would say Archer will be top 30 - 40 on BA top 100, so he couldn't be that far down on most teams charts.
I think Olney has some pretty good info generally, but I do think he slants his articles against the Cubs many times, and he always loves the Brewers. I don't generally buy into writers/sportscasters having alot of bias. I think most try to do the best they can about being impartial, but this latest column just kind of fired me up.
I think the Cubs' history and their reputation for drafting and developing prospects supercedes them. You can't blame anyone for factoring that into any analysis.
Nobody's going to know the results of this trade until it all plays out.
I'm liking it more than I did yesterday.
Re: Reports fro NYC (and anywhere else) show you unbiased opinions. Cub fans like their prospects more than any other teams, and same goes for all the other organizations. Its just fact, teams (fans) like their own more than they like others.
Chris Archer is at his all time high in value. Everyone rips on Hendry for waiting too long on Patterson and Pie and other prospects, yet here he's selling high, and still getting ripped.
Archer was #3 in my personal rankings, behind McNutt and B.Jackson. Might just be a closer who isn't going to give you more than 2 WAR.
Chirinos = John Jaso, but he's going to be 27, in his peak already, so his value just isn't that high; although, it is at an all time high.
Guyer = IMO, Reed Johnson. Value = all time high.
HJ Lee was my favorite Cub prospect, had him at #4. He'll either be Alcides Escobar or he'll end up hitting. Won't know for about 3-5 years.
So I think the move is about even. If Archer is no more than a reliever, Cubs win. Hendry sold high on 3 guys that before the season were considered either non-prospects or a bullpen arm and one legit prospect in HJ Lee.
Outside of focusing on the prospects we gave up, it's important to look at this trade in a broader context. Despite some intriguing pitching prospects and depth, we were going to have go outside the organization -either via trade or FA- to upgrade the SP over the next year or two. After seeing the deals being handed out to the high-end starting pitchers at the wrong points on their career curves- 6-7 yr deals to 30+yr old guys-, this deal makes a lot more sense. You're basically getting Garza as he is reaching his peak yrs and have him under control for at least 3 yrs. Realistically, if he has a good yr, there is a good chance we'd sign him to a deal that buys out his remaining 2arb yrs + his first 2-3 yrs of FA( does 4/48 sound reasonable?). That is a much less risky proposition than dipping your toes into the FA mkt for SP and the trade mkt for SP always becomes much stiffer at the deadline. This clearly helps us next yr but is also a good strategic move, much like LAA's trade for Haren last yr. This also will allow us to use more of our resources towards building the everyday lineup for our next consistently competitive club- FA bats are more predictable and less risky than arms. Hopefully, Carp and J Jax continue to develop taking the sting out of losing Archer; I have a lot of faith in Cash & McNutt.
than watching your prospects flourish somewhere else is to be locked into a contract with an injured pitcher. I don't agree with extending Garza right now. Maybe before his last arb eligible season. Position players are different IMO. I would be all for extending Soto right now.
Not only do fans tend to overvalue their own prospects, they also tend to come around to trades that their teams make because they are fans and they want "their players" to do well. I do it all the time Booz.
My opinion about it.... he is here now, might as well make the best of it.
that it is highly unlikely that all 4 guys ever end up contributing in the majors. Just simple math. Most prospects don't pan out. Not just most Cubs prospects, most prospects in general. Of course, the higher the level, the better chance they will pan out.
I agree that Archer's value is at an all time high. Not true for Lee, but probably so for Guyer and Chirinos (who is 27, same as Soto).
I don't think Archer will ever be better than Garza. He might end up as good, but who knows. And there is a big question as to whether Lee will develop as a hitter. He is basically the same age as Castro and is probably going to start the year at high A ball.
I think the Cubs gave quite a bit, but I think the Cubs will be pleased with this trade in the short term and probably the long term as well.
Barry Rozner of Daily Herald and DUK of Yahoo Sports, have it right as far as I'm concerned. Also blogger on this site cubmadness should be working for the Cubs, he has a real good insight, and I usually agree with him because he looks beyond emotions.
As far as prospect are concerned, what I've said before, I stand by it, prospects are just prospects, although I hate to see the players the Cubs gave up for Garza gone.
But think about it, pasted prospect, Patterson, Pie, Pagel, Sean Gallagher, Doborik (probably spelled his name wrong), and many more. Sometimes other guys surprise,
like Marshall and Theroit, no matter what they do in the minors, adjustments have to be made. Garza like Lilly is a fly ball pitcher, but Lilly adjusted, let's hope when Garza pitches the wind isn't blowing out in Wrigley or in Cincy. But for now I'm happy to get him anyway.
I believe Ricketts let Henry make this move because Cub Convention and season tickets are moving slowly, and other sports in Chicago like the Bears are in the playoffs, the Bulls are playing good, the White Sox have improved. Guys, this is a business FIRST.
As far as trading Zambrano, quite a few teams would pay the remainder of his salary,and happy to get him, ask Ozzie next door.,and would you really want to get fring players in return, I wouldn't. Zambrano as far as I can tell does not want to be in the American League, HE WANTS TO HIT. Zambrano pitched good for another team, Sports Writers and Cub Fans would be very angry.
Again watch what you wish for, like Ricketts buying the Cubs, and not wanting to spend money, or letting Henry trade away decent prospects.
Is it safe to assume Samardzija is the last man in the pen and that Coleman, Diamond, Russell, Caridid, Carpenter, Jackson, Berg and Stevens start the year in the minors? All those guys have options right? Either way, I would assume the Cubs try to trade some of the back-end (of the rotation/bullpen) arms.
Here's the 25 man as I see it:
1. Soto
2. Pena
3. Dewitt
4. Castro
5. Ramirez
6. Colvin
7. Byrd
8. Soriano
9. Fukudome
10. Baker
11. Barney
12. Hill
13. Perez
14. Dempster
15. Garza
16. Zambrano
17. Wells
18. Gorzelanny
19. Silva
20. Cashner
21. Marmol
22. Wood
23. Marshall
24. Grabow
25. Samardzidja/Coleman/Diamond/Russell/Caridid/Carptenter/Jackson/Berg/Stevens
Marcos Mateo. Outside of Carpenter/Jackson, and to an extent, Samarzija, Mateo offers a big fastball and a solid slider. Some of those middle relief options don't bring that level of stuff.
That said, my pitching guess (assuming 12 man pitching staff) goes more along the lines of
Rotation: Dempster, Zambrano, Garza, Wells, Cashner
Closer: Marmol
SU: Wood/Marshall
MR: Grabow, Russell, Samardzija, Mateo
In close, tight games, I'm thinking Marshall in the 7th, Wood 8th, and Marmol 9th. Russell gives you a LOOGY for the 5th/6th, and Samardzija sort of gives you a long man if you had that need. Obviously, with the middle relievers, you could see a lot of guys coming in and out. My hunch is that the fastballs of Samardzija and Mateo will win out (and Samardzija also has "status"/contract/no more options). I could also see any number of the righty pen arms make it.
So ... Cashner in rotation. That's a bit of hope on my part, as I simply want Cashner in a rotation somewhere. The Cubs were committed to developing him as a starter. He showed very well as a starter in the minors last year. The added benefit of Garza is that the Cubs could potentially have 4 180-200 inning starters (potentially ... ). If that's the case, there's a chance you could baby Cashner along and control his innings. It's possible that Silva/Gorzelanny/Coleman/Samardzija end up grabbing the spot, though.
Guys not listed: I think Gorzelanny is the most likely to be moved right now. He has enough value to bring in something decent, and if he's not in the rotation, we don't really have a huge need for him in the pen. If Silva isn't in the rotation ... I wonder if we keep him around. I think Coleman may be ticketed for the I-Cubs rotation. Justin Berg is basically a one pitch righty with that turbo sinker ... and I wonder if that's enough for him to stick. My guess is that he heads to the I-Cubs pen. Alberto Cabrera and Rafael Dolis will both likely be in Tennessee. John Gaub is ... somewhere. I have no idea what his status is. Hopefully Iowa. Scott Maine will have an uphill battle to make the bigs and likely heads to Iowa. Smit/Stevens are probably I-Cubs as well - Smit needs a bit more time, and the org didn't seem that huge on Stevens (unless there was a reason to not call him up at the end of last year). I just don't know if Thomas Diamond's stuff is good enough to grab a pen slot.
That leaves two close cases - Smiley Caridad might be able to fight for a spot, but he missed so much last year that it's hard for me to slot him in right now. Actually, the guy that could push Shark or Mateo off might be Angel Guzman, depending on how he looks in the spring.
Just a guess. Overall, it has the chance to be a solid pen.
couple side comments: I have my doubts that the Cubs give Carpenter or J. Jackson a middle relief role and star their clock unless they are absolutely dominant in the spring and have to be taken.
one of the surprises this offseason might be that our righty pen arm types have largely stuck arond. I thought there would be one or two departures, and I know some Cubs posters thought that there would be a huge slashing of those guys, but outside of Schlitter, well, most of them are still there.
I expect the Cubs to move Jackson back to the rotation and Carpenter will probably be at Iowa to continue refining his offspeed stuff. If Wood gets hurt, Carpenter will probably be the man recalled.
Mitch Williams of MLBN says the Cubs gave up tons. Said at least three of the prospects are Grade-A prime rib.
He said Hendry is being pressed to win now, so he's leaving the cupboard bare for the next guy.
are two former players who are basically morons when it comes to their analysis. Williams quite obviously knows nothing about the Cubs system. In fact, I bet he had never heard of Chris Archer before the trade talks began surfacing.
The cupboard is not bare, and since the Cubs ranking came mostly from depth and not from elite prospects, I would suspect the system goes from about #8 to about #15.
My new top 10 prospects
1. Brett Jackson, of
2. Trey McNutt, rhp
3. Josh Vitters, 3b
4. Chris Carpenter, rhp
5. Matt Szczur, of
6. Hayden Simpson, rhp
7. Rafael Dolis, rhp
8. Alberto Cabrera rhp
9. DJ Lamahieu 2b/3b
10. Jay Jackson rhp
(pretty sure on Cabrera based on Callis chat, complete guess on the other 2)
If the Cubs should fall out of it by July, they will have a ton of guys to trade a the deadline, and get some PROSPECTS BACK, Ha Ha.
Another thought, it would surprise me if the Cubs traded Zambrano, even more to to the Yankees. The Cubs have a lot of pitchers, Dempster, Zambrano, Garza, Wells, Gorzy, Jeff
Sam, Carpenter,Silva ,Coleman & Cashner, would you like to hang you hat on these guys without Zambrano, but are they really better then what the Brewers and Cardinals have. Never say never on Soriano being traded, after all this is Major League Baseball, and teams make some VERY STUPID TRADES. We still need a lead off man and better 2nd baseman.
Trade Z to Yankees for a mediocre prospect and eat half his salary BUT in return Yankees must take Soriano with the Cubs eating half of Sori's remaining contract. I wish they could make that trade.
I doubt Garza gets shopped. You make this sort of trade with 2012 and 2013 in mind, and not just 2011.
If we are so far out of it and selling, I imagine our top trade chips, relative to getting assets back, would be Geovany Soto, Carlos Marmol, Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood, and maybe Sean Marshall. If we have first half 2010 Marlon Byrd, he'd be a good chip. If we have 2nd half ... not so much.
Soriano and Z would be more dumping salary moves, IMO. You never say never, and maybe someone offers us something great, but I doubt either guy would net us quality return assets.
Don't know how the trade is being reported or accepted back in Chicago, but the consensus of the NY media/fan feedback is that the Cubs got a steal.
They're reporting that this guy Pena is going to be a stud.
I know you'll think I'm picking on you again OB but why should we care what the New York media thinks about a trade b/w the Cubs and Tampa? What are they saying about this in San Francisco? Honolulu?
I do.... it's what I get now. Actually it's refreshing to hear some unbiased views away from all the "noise" from where it eminates. I hear enough from the Yankee/Mets kool-aid drinkers... the teams may be different, but it's the same fan rap as the Cub/Sox kool-aid drinkers that I'm used to.
How's it playing out on WSCR & ESPN radio in Chgo?
Not that you would care, but the word here is that the Yankees will likely do whatever they need to financially to get Z in pinstripes.
If the Yankees will trade for Z and pay most of his salary, I'll drive him to New York and even buy you a drink OB.
I have not listened to radio today, just read this blog and some of the national websites. I expect the response to be mostly positive, since most of the baseball consuming public have no idea who Chris Archer or Hak Ju Lee are.
Sorry... make that Perez.
was a semi-intriguing prospect once upon a time. That said, he's a speed guy who strikes out a lot. Feels more like a pinch runner, spot CF starter to me, someone who essentially takes the role of what Sam Fuld might've done for the club, but with better speed. Maybe he surprises, but with Colvin being given a starting job, and Byrd still around, it's hard to see him garnering more time. His value over Fuld is that Perez still has an option, although after last year, I imagine they might try to keep a pinch runner around.
The Leadoff Hitter. During one night of insomnia back in August, I asked the Cubs to make 4 moves this winter to make them competitive again in 2011. #2/3 starter, dominant 8th inning set-up guy, and power hitting 1st basemen (preferably lefty and I actually asked for Pena specifically). So - I am pretty happy with the course of the offseason thus far. Now - Hendry needs to make move #4 and get a legitimate leadoff hitter likely to play 2nd base. Not sure who that is, but my suggested Cub lineup looks like:
1) TBD
2) Castro
3) ARam
4) Pena
5) Soriano/ Soto
6) Colvin
7) Soto/ Soriano
8) Byrd/ Fukudome/ Other
Where have you gone Bobby Dernier, Jerome Walton and Kenny Lofton? Jim Hendry and the new Coach Q (2 Coach Q's in same city) needs you.
Yeah, kind of hard to see where this might come from. Has to be at either LF, 2b, or CF. Those are the only options.
#1 Byrd could lead off. Respectable OBA last few years. No speed, but a good baserunner.
#2 Soriano goes back to leadoff, where he has had his best years. Let him steal if he still can. It would increase his value.
#3. DeWitt/Barney...again no speed, but probably decent on base between the 2 of them.
Now if you trade any of those players, Jackson could step in at either OF spot. Or if you trade Soriano (maybe for Figgins), maybe you could play Figgins at 2nd base or in LF and he could leadoff.
Obviously, any such move is going to require an unexpected trade. Byrd might still bring some value from Atlanta, the Phillies, or someone else. Man it would be nice to get Ellsbury from Boston (assuming he could stay healthy).
No one is taking soriano
worst contract in the league if not baseball
I look forward to the conversation about handing him a check and sending him on his way - which will come - there is no way he is our LF in 2014
at some point you make a decision that B Jackson or whomever gives us a better chance to win
than Soriano
I would say that time is now - but as an organization were not there yet.
there's really only one spot we can look for a leadoff hitter ... and I'm not sure who is actually shopping a top of the order 2nd baseman. I can't think of anyone off the top, unless you want to try and take a Chone Figgins like gamble, and Figgins wasn't exactly good at 2nd and is coming off a down year with a fairly bad contract.
The only other thought that came across for me right now was Marco Scutaro, but he's also coming off a somewhat down year (granted, injury may have been a factor, despite 695 AB's, I recall reading about some sort of injury that he played through). I think the Red Sox would move Scutaro for relatively cheap ... but how much of an upgrade is he? If he's the Scutaro of 09 ... okay.
I would take that gamble - he's specifically who I asked for as well that night of insomnia last August. I hear the Mariners asked him to move back to 3rd. He's got 3 years and $27M left on his deal. This guy was pretty consistent with OBP and steals until last year, and I do think he could get back to those 2009 numbers again. He is poor defensively and that's a problem, but I look at how much Juan Pierre helped th Sox last year and it keep bringing me back to Figgins being the guy for the Cubs.
The Dodgers and White Sox agreed to the Pierre trade with LA eating his salary to point where Sox paid $4M for Pierre over the remaining two years. If Cubs could get M's to eat enough so they only paid Figgins $5M for next three years, I'd do that yesterday. Maybe the Cubs trade Casey Coleman (he's similar to John Ely). Or get them to take back Fukudome and they just trade contracts.
There may be others out there, but all I know is the Cubs teams that have done well in my lifetime have done so with a very good leafoff hitter.
Maybe a trade of DeWitt and a relief pitcher (Ms are said to be looking for relief help, but have no money) for Figgins and cash. I would also make that deal (depending on the reliever. Maybe Mateo, maybe Samardzija, maybe Diamond). That wouldn't exactly give them relief help, but would free up cash and provide them with potentially usable arms.
I don't see the Cubs taking on more salary to acquire Figgins but I do think as I've stated before, that Soriano plus $9M/yr for Figgins has the potential of helping both the Cubs and Mariners with neither team taking on any additional salary.
Now, for my two cents on today's trade. Following the trade, the Cubs still are short an ace and a leadoff man, though they did already improve the bullpen and add a LH power hitter who can flash the leather. Archer and Lee are the key components the Cubs gave up. Personally, I have a hard time buying into all the hype about Lee. He's only seven months younger than Castro yet hasn't played above low A ball while Castro has already hit .300 in a full season at the major league level. I could certainly be wrong about this but I think Hendry was wise in getting value for him now. It's similar to when I thought he was foolish in reportedly killing a deal for Brian Roberts because he wouldn't part with Felix Pie. Successful GM's have to be able to objectively evaluate the players in their system and be able to make moves that make the organization better.
To me, Archer was the key loss. He could turn out to be better than Garza but the Cubs have a proven commodity in Garza. They weren't about to go into a rebuilding campaign, and Hendry made a trade that unquestionably improves the team immediately. I don't view Garza as an ace, but his 3.9 ERA probably equates to 3.4 or slightly better in the NL, making him the best SP on the present Cubs roster.
So, I like the trade for the Cubs. How much I like the trade for 2011 hinges on what else Hendry is able to do to upgrade the team elsewhere. It's pretty clear to me that they are going to be short an ace but they certainly could stand to improve in LF and at 2B and if I were Hendry I would be trying to find a legitimate leadoff man to play one of those positions.
There's the typical bump, but I'm not sure a straight .5 drop in ERA will be an accurate enough move. On the one hand, he's leaving a division with some of the most hitter and homer friendly parks. On the other hand, he's leaving pitching friendly Trop for Wrigley. Furthermore, he's bringing his increasing flyball rates, which, on paper, is likely to lead to a lot more home runs ... and he already sported a 1.23 HR/9 rate ... which already was 80th out of 92 qualified starters, according to fangraphs.
Certainly, the weaker lineups will help ... but I'm not sure the typical .5 adjustment will necessarily be an accurate gauge here.
So are you saying that Garza is or isn't likely to post an ERA below 3.4? Several arguments are out there about him coming from a tough division but I took a look at the splits over the past three years and he put up pretty solid numbers within the division. His ERA's over the past three years were:
vs Balt 3.26
vs Boston 3.97
vs Toronto 1.47
vs NYY 4.22
So I don't think that is such a great argument in predicting that he will produce an ERA considerably below 3.4.
I'm not sure the standard .5 reduction (it is pretty standard to make that adjustment) will necessarily work in this case. My hunch is that it'll probably be a bit less of a reduction (that is, higher than a 3.4 ERA), and I would point to his flyball rate and the fact that he's leaving a very pitcher friendly park as my reasons for why I don't think the standard .5. But I also pointed out how the AL East parks, besides Tampa, are all pretty hitter friendly, so I could see a case for maybe a 3.4, if not a sub 3.4 ERA.
This was last season only, and primarily only 2nd half. Could be nothing more than a mechanical glitch or a tired arm or whatever.
I suspect he will post a Sub 3.50 ERA and potentially much better than that, maybe 3.25.
Garza's been bottom 10 in each of last two seasons.
Lilly has been #1, but he made it work because he didn't walk half as many.
It will just depend on WHEN he gives them up.
It is possible that Wood could also mentor Garza who is another young power pitcher who has not learned how to pitch. Hopefully Wood will have a positive impact on both him and Cashner (and maybe Samardzija) as well as pitching some good ball for us.
With all due respect to Kerry Wood the fact is Matt Garza is a more tested and successful starting pitcher than Wood ever was. Maybe Wood can learn from Garza.
Sweet god.....
Kerry Wood was very good until his arm blew out. Plain and simple. The guy pitched through the 2nd half of the 98 season using a fastball and mock change up. 2 pitches!!!!
I'm torn on this....Garza isn't over impressive with all the stats I've seen via baseball-reference.
I'm not one to cry over prospects. How many prospects have truly come back to bite the Cubs in the butt, or how many have actually match the expectations? How are the Pat Klines, Gary Scotts, etc of the world doing? Felix Pie? Corey Patterson? Should I continue?
For years I had to sit, read, or listen to the Cubs build up these prospects and then shockingly....they never transpire into anything more then a loud DUD.
If this move helps the Cubs stabilize a rotation and compete...Fantastic. If they use Garza to fill a void that maybe a Zambrano leaves? Even better.
Bruce, do you expect the Garza trade means that Cashner ends up staying in the pen, after all? Also, can we assume that either Gorz or Wells gets moved now- probably Gorz because of the higher salary?
Cashner still will be given an opportunity to win a rotation spot in spring training. In the latter stages of the Cactus League, when pitchers go 4-5-6 innings, this will enable him to work on his full range of pitches. Where it ends up after that depends on who's still on the team, injuries and the like. I would think Gorzelanny is the guy they'd prefer to trade over Wells.
Perhaps to the Yankees? I've got to believe Hendry wants to move Zambrano if at all possible, and the Yankees are hurting big time for an arm.
If he says he ain't going, he ain't going. And if they feel they can contend with a rotation of Dempster/Z/Garza/Silva/Wells/Cashner or some such combination, they'll keep him.
You think they can compete for the division or wild card with that rotation, batting order, bench, and bullpen?
Plus, did I overdose on holiday cocktails, or did they eve name a pitching coach?