Will Cubs go winless on this trip?
Before the start of the 1997 season, a lot of people were wondering if the Cubs could lose their first 14 games. They were coming off a horrendous finish to the 1996 season, and the early ’97 schedule was packed with games against contenders. The Cubs promptly went ahead and proved some of the prophets of doom right by starting 0-14. The question today is: Will the Cubs go 0-7 on this current road trip?
Think it’s impossible? If so, you didn’t watch the two games in Cincinnati (and all the better for you if you didn’t). The Cubs blew two leads and played horrible fundamental baseball in the process. So yes, with games coming up against the Florida Marlins and Boston Red Sox, it’s quite possible for the Cubs to go 0-for-the-road in this segment.
The Marlins were rained out Tuesday (the Cubs should have been so lucky). They enter today with a record of 24-16, one-half game behind the Phillies in the National League East. They’ll host the Cubs for two beginning tonight in Florida. The Red Sox also were rained out last night. They’ve played much better of late after a poor start and are 21-20, 2 games behind Tampa Bay and a half-game in back of the Yankees in the tough American League East. They’ll host the Cubs for three beginning Friday at Fenway Park.
If you’re a Cubs fan, you’ve got to hope manager Mike Quade puts Alfonso Soriano nowhere near the Green Monster in any of the three games.
So if the first question is: Can the Cubs run the table on this trip? The second becomes: What happens if they do? Let’s see here:
--An 0-7 road trip would put the Cubs at 17-28 for the season and pretty much bury them for good.
--They come home to play the Mets next Tuesday. The Pirates and Astros follow the Mets into town, but you already know how the Cubs have fared against the “easy” teams. As our old pal Lou pointed out last season, maybe those teams view the Cubs as “easy.”
--The natives are getting extremely restless. Go to any media outlet, and you’ll find that out quickly. How many empty seats will there be at Wrigley Field next homestand?
--Will Tom Ricketts be forced to give GM Jim Hendry the dreaded vote of confidence on the next homestand? Truth be told, I’m sure Ricketts will keep his feet moving quickly when and if he sees the beat writers, whose questions he never likes to answer. Ricketts’ initial and most fundamental problem was not hiring a baseball man as president the minute he bought the team. A Pat Gillick would have looked mighty good at the top of the baseball org chart, and he would have been a good counterbalance to Hendry’s more impulsive nature.
--What will Hendry say? What can he say? He’s signed through 2012, and he’s not foolish enough to walk away from the money. Ricketts isn’t going to fire Hendry and throw the organization into turmoil just a few days ahead of the amateur draft. About all Hendry might say is, “Obviously, we haven’t played up to expectations. Obviously, some of our key people haven’t hit with men on base. Obviously, we’re missing two pitchers from our starting rotation.” And so forth.
Ricketts has shown no sign of wanting to let Hendry go. The owner seems to be putting his faith in Tim Wilken’s drafts and Oneri Fleita’s player development and counting the days until the likes of Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, Jae-Hoon Ha, Rob Whitenack, Matt Szczur, Ryan Flaherty and others are ready to move up.
Other than Jackson, No. 1 draft picks from the Wilken era _ Tyler Colvin, Josh Vitters, Andrew Cashner and Hayden Simpson _ are having their problems for various reasons, some related to injuries and others to performance.
The current Cubs roster is full of immovable parts:
--Soriano’s contract will go down as one of the worst ever handed out in sports history, and it still has three years to run after this. Do you just eat the money at some point down the road?
--Aramis Ramirez has 10-5 rights. He hasn’t homered since April 6, so who would want him anyway, and what would you get? He’s looked terrible uninspired in the field so far.
--Kosuke Fukudome is an expensive, no-power, high-OBP guy. Not much you can do there.
--Carlos Zambrano has pitched well, but his contract is cost-prohibitive.
--Ryan Dempster has 10-5 rights and shows no willingness to want to leave Chicago, even if the Cubs did want to trade him.
There are players other teams would want, but the Cubs want to build around them: Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney, Jackson and some of the other prospects mentioned.
So, for trades, that leaves you pretty much with:
--Marlon Byrd. His contract runs through next season and is reasonable cost-wise. His line is .309/.337/.383. He has a 3 percent walk rate, 1 home run, 8 RBI and an ISO of .074. You might be able to get a little something.
--Catcher Geovany Soto is on the DL. There’s been speculation on this blog that he could fetch something. Maybe, but he’s got to stay healthy first. The Cubs seem to have decent catching prospects in Welington Castillo, Steve Clevenger and Micah Gibbs. I hate to get the anti-Koyie Hill sentiment stirred up here, but watching Castillo, you can see he still needs some work behind the plate. (To avoid all that silliness with Miguel Cairo last night, all Castillo would have had to do is tag him.)
--Relievers Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall might look like nice hood ornaments on a jalopy right now, and I’m sure both would fetch something. But what does that leave you with in your bullpen?
The bottom line is you can make the case for firing Hendry and cleaning house up and down the organization. Hendry has been the GM since July 2002 and has won three division titles and only one playoff series. His proclamation at the 2007 Cubs convention of, “We’re going to get good, and we’re going to stay good,” already is haunting him. What we’re lookin’ at ain’t good these days.
But if you fire Hendry (and Fleita and Wilken follow him out the door) whom do you bring in, and do you trust Ricketts and team president Crane Kenney to hire the right people? Think about that for a sec.
What they all should be embarrassed about, in addition to the bad play the last two nights, is that they have a team in Chicago, by far the largest market in the National League Central, and they’re getting out-everythinged by teams in St. Louis, Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh (at least as of today’s standings).
Cubs fans have seen enough of it.
With the Cubs remarkably winning two games, we need a new topic.
This started with a solid post by you--one of the best this year. Thanks
I say Bruce not make another post until Monday, hopefully after they finished a 5-0 trip through South Florida and New England. He can start a new blog post on Monday that's titled " Will Cubs go winless on this homestand?"
Always better to be supersticious when comes to Cubs
Definitely better to be lucky than good...as we found out in Cincy....Bruce, wait on another blog
Isn't amazing that it took 15 years of interleague play for MLB to finally schedule a game between the Cubs and BoSox in Fenway?????
Yes.
Baseball's kinda missing the boat.... interleague games should be scheduled between teams that have geographic rivalries and legacy teams..... Except for Houston and Milwaukee, the NL Central are all legacy teams, as is the AL East with the exception of Tampa and Toronto.
Those divisions should be playing each other on even years and the AL Central teams on odd years.
Who cares when the Cubs play Oakland, Seattle, Texas, etc?
"Who cares when the Cubs play Oakland, Seattle, Texas, etc?"
Me. Those are games that I actually buy tickets to because I don't get to see Ichiro, Felix Hernandez, Josh Hamilton and Neftali Feliz play in person unless I go to the South Side. If those games are in the AL park I'll fly out if it's on the weekend, too.
I couldn't think of any A's players that I want to see play, sorry A's fans.
There's always PlayStation & XBox
I hear ya, it's much cheaper, too.
I don't know, I fear regretting missing seeing some of these guys play in person against the Cubs. Forty years from now I might have a grandson asking me if I ever saw Ichiro play in person and I don't want to tell him no.
It sounds more and more like Quade is going to let Soriano play LF in Boston. It's a good thing that Brenly is going to be gone because I think that would be the last straw for him.
I don't get it, they are going to have to play him at SS like two feet behind Castro because of his fear of the wall.
Just the facts....
Tennessee
Vitters (playing 1st base) 3 for 4 with 2 doubles. Back up to .264. Hitting well since moving to 1st base.
Flaherty hit is 9th HR and was 2 for 4.
LaMahieu (playing 3rd base) was 3 for 5, hitting .359.
Rebel Ridling 3 for 4, now hitting .343.
Ha 1 for 5 hitting .316 after moving up to AA.
Daytona
Brett Wallach allows 4 runs in 4.2, but K's 9.
Justin Bour 5 for 5 .
Junior Lake 1 for 3 with a walk.
Starter Aaron Kurcz has for straight scoreless starts (2.48 ERA)
Iowa
Colvin 0 for 4 with an RBI.
Clevengers 2 for 3 with a walk.
Coello 6 innings pitched, 5 hits, 2 BBs, 2 runs, 6 Ks.
At Peoria
Austin Kirk is pitching great. 7 starts, 1.56 ERA, .155 BAA, 35Ks, 9 BBs
I agree that the playoff chances are poor.
However, Coleman and Russell have been absolutely horrendous (2 - 9). If Wells and Cashner had been healthy, I think you could make a reasonable argument that the Cubs would be at least 5 - 6 in those games, maybe 6 - 5, or 7-4. Both had pitches very well the first time out. Easy to see how Ricketts could justify(rationalize) that the Cubs should be 1 or 2 games over .500 and be right in the thick of things.
I don't think they'll make the playoffs or come close, but.....
Believe it or not I think they hit rock bottom, needed to eat some humble pie, recognized that their fans turned on them because of how they approached the game, got their rude awakening..... and they'll be okay from here on out!
I think they'll be competitive and hover around .500, like we all thought, the rest of the way.
Basically, no one in the Cub organization gave them the kick in the ass they deserved.... so in a round about way, their fans did.
I am hoping they play well the rest of the way. In alot of ways, this team is totally dependent on the performance and effort given by Ramirez and Soriano. If these guys could get there act together, run out everything and Soriano could start hitting for a little average and Ramirez could start hitting for power.
Sad that our hopes are tied to the performances of these 2 guys.
I occasionally look at Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report. It's updated daily. It's a Monte Carlo computer run that encompasses a multitude of factors.
As of this morning, here are the chances by percent for each team to make the postseason.
StL 66 (89 W's), Cin 31, Mil 19, Cubs 2.7 (77 W's), Pit 0.8, Hou 0.
Phi 70, Atl 54, Fla 32, NYM 2, Was 0.2
SF 81, Col 28, LAD 4, Az 0.8, SD 0.6
Det 47, Cle 33, CWS 23, Min 4, KC 0.3
Bos 84, NYY 71, TB 27, Bal 3, Tor 1
Tex 61, Oak 38, LAA 7, Sea 0.5
P. S. Our payroll ranks: 6th, MLB; 2nd, NL; 1st, NLC, 20 mil more than No. 2 StL. I'm not happy. I want change. How you doin'?
What should we do about it! after watching that game Tuesday, I'm ready to be lead somewhere - where you taking me?
Seriously - other than detailing the obvious (ie - Hendry a bad GM and Cubs not very good this year), what should we do next? You still have your season tickets. I have season tickets. What should we do?
2.7% chance? Wow, I'm sure Cubs management will think that warrants Hendry another extension on his contract.
Just look at the bottom-line numbers.
Jim Hendry will give you, on average, a little under 83 W's per season with a payroll 18% higher than the next NLC team, top 3 in NL, top 6 in MLB. I don't want this to be too long, so let me just say that's a really bad ratio
I've been a little generous there in a few ways: (1) I didn't count partial-season '02. (2) His delivery of wins per dollar has gotten worse thru the years. (3) We're 18-23 in '11, and our farm system ranks in the 20-to-23 range, so '11 doesn't look good and the future isn't all that bright unless you smoke a lot of opium.
Anyway, you can grade his performance on trades till the cows come home. But then you'd also need to guess at a grade on how he's done with free-agent signings, and another for home-grown talent. And a few other areas.
But you don't have to slice 'n dice and guess at all that.
Hendry has compiled a long-term track record of results. A record of 680-655, or 686-667 if you add in his 6-12 postseason mark.
(Analogy: You have a date with a rich girl, and you're taking out for a nice dinner. She's pretty good-looking, maybe a 7. She has the money for the best clothes, a perm, whatever. You figure she's gonna look like an 8 or so. But she comes downstairs looking really plain. More like a 5 or 6. Bummer! Hendry's Cubs have been that rich girl.)
That's a C+ on the surface. Then factor in all those high payrolls that should have helped him do a whole lot better than that. And grade him down to whatever you think.
And this is just me, but Hendry should have been able to give us one run of sustained excellence for three years or so. A great team wins 95 or more games. A very good team wins 90-94. He gave us one at 95+, his only team at 90 or above! And it didn't sustain. Nor did his teams of '03, '04 at 88, 89 wins grow from good to better.
Also, Cubdom obviously wants a GM to get us into a WS. If not the first title in 103 years, at least a first appearance in 66 years. 12 teams have made it to WS since '03, including two from our division, and we weren't one of 'em. (But, hey, we did reach No. 1 in average ticket price last year!)
I think we deserve a new, smart, progressive GM capable of being an A.
Jim Hendry is a very nice man and quite far from the worst GM around. But he's had a lengthy nine-year run for one of the sport's storied franchise in arguably the world's greatest city. He'd be the first to tell you he's been privileged. But enough.
He fell short, and it's time for a change. Period.
Again, you can analyze Hendry in the category of trade performance and in any other specific category. But you don't have to. In sum total of results over a long time, Jim Hendry just didn't quite cut the mustard.
P. S. I suspected he wasn't the guy very early on Too much one way on the old-school side. Then I definitely decided he wasn't the guy all the way back in '04-05 offseason when he started it by signing Neifi Perez and Glendon Rusch to 2-year contracts each worth more than 4 mil. I hoped I was wrong, but I wasn't.
Analogy: You have a date with a rich girl, and you're taking out for a nice dinner. She's pretty good-looking, maybe a 7. She has the money for the best clothes, a perm, whatever. You figure she's gonna look like an 8 or so. But she comes downstairs looking really plain. More like a 5 or 6. Bummer! Hendry's Cubs have been that rich girl.)
I'm thinking if she comes down with a perm in this day and age then that's an instant -8 points at least!
good catch!
but, hey, if Christina Hendricks shows up in her Mad Men perm, she does not drop from a 10 to a 2. maybe from 10 to 9.9 if an overhead pigeon hit his target. so we differ substantially on the perm deduction.
I have to agree....when Hendry is attacked on this board I tend to defend him, because the attacks are pretty emotional. Your argument is spot on. He is not a horrendous GM, most probably above average, but given the resources available and 8 years in, it's time for him to go. Maybe put him in another role and be able to keep Wilken. This probably should be done late in the season. After the trade deadline, bring in Gillick(or similar) as team president with his own GM in tow, and be set up for 2012-2016, when the Cubs could show some solid progress.
Can't disagree with anything you wrote Mike. I don't expect anyone on this board disagrees significantly either. Question is - what's next? What do we do with this information?
Should seasonticket holders write to Ricketts and demand Hendry be fired or threaten we won't renew our season tickets? Every group needs a leader - where do we go next?
I don't think they worry about season ticketholders cancelling because of their voluminous backup list. And, even tho the robust secondary market of '08 is probably gone forever, I still make a little net profit against total invoice after selling dates on Stubhub.
But they must be concerned about the general attendance decline....and the increase in no-shows....and, I think, a new trend of more people leaving early. I don't think any of those things have been entirely the cause of the bad weather. And all those things chip away at revenue.
Also, they always, always want to jack up ticket prices the following year as much as the market will bear. They can't do that as much when there's more downturn, more resistance, less winning, etc.
I think you should complain to Ricketts face to face or write to him. And encourage every Cubs fan you know to do those things. He's very accessible, and the tendency of most fans is to just be nice, deferential and positive, no matter what they privately feel. I feel it's time to overcome that and honestly express our feelings. Not in a mean or threatening way. The man does deserve the same demeanor of class and diginity that he shows. I think we've got to do this not because we're disloyal or inherent boat-rockers, but because we care so much about the franchise.
He knows how I feel.
If I were a season ticket holder and I had Ricketts' ear, the 1st question I'd ask before making any emotion-driven threats would be:
"What's the honest to God.... Down & Dirty.... plan, Tom, for the rest of this season, next season and the one after that without the rehearsed sound bites?"
I think he'd get where you were coming from and you'd be able to tell if he was doing a sales job on you.
I plan to ask him these 3 questions at this ST Appreciation Event. He was there last year and took questions from ticket holders individually and generally let people have as much time as they wanted.
1) Why did you spend $800M+ on this team and decide to keep the same front office in place - partiularly Hendry and the Trib lawyer?
2) Everyone I talk is shocked you have yet to hire a baseball guy to oversee baseball operations of the team, somebody sitting over Hendry/ the GM role? How did you go about evaluating Hendry's skills/ capabilities/ performance over the last year given you have no formal background in the business of baseball? Have you consulted (formally or informally) with any recognized baseball leaders currently outside the Cubs in deciding to keep Hendry in is role?
3) Should season ticket holders expect the payroll to increase/decrease or stay neutral in 2012? Should season ticketholders expect "overall ticket prices" to increase/ decrease or stay neutral in 2012?
Those are the basic three questions I want to ask him. If event anything like last year, I'll have the opportunity and I'll post here what he says.
Good questions, but I'll guess you'll get something along the usual responses:
1) "I have all the confidence in Jim to get this team where it needs to be for the long term. I know it's frustrating for our fans, but sometimes you need to go backward in order to move forward. Jim's one of the most knowledgeable GM's in baseball. Crane has done an outstanding job in creating new revenue streams that will be able to fund the things Jim needs to do."
2) "I'll take your suggestion under consideration. I'm a Cub fan just like you.... I feel fortunate to have someone like Jim, who I trust and have confidence in to make the baseball decisions which will make all Cub fans happy again as soon as possible. One of the problems with the Cubs has been the inability to develop players from within the organization. Jim and his staff have done an outstanding job in that area. I can site Starlin Castro, Darwin Barney and Andy Cashner as prime examples of his success in that key area."
3) "We haven't put together our budget for 2012 yet. That's something we look at when the season ends. Crane's been looking at different ticket plans for next season, but nothing has been passed along to our market research guys yet to gauge our fan's interest. Good questions!.....Thanks for asking.... can I get you a Frosty Malt?"
Did I ever let you spin your way out of one of my questions? I'll do my best to get him to answer with as much yes/ no certitude as possible.
Is that you?
No, but what would you expect the guy to say?
Something like Jim's a dolt, Crane's a weasel and where was MY head at when I had this crazy idea to buy this stupid franchise???
for that response!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So who"s going to one of these events the first weekend in June? I signed up for the Friday evening one and taking the whole family. Last year was really great and will give me a few minutes to yell at Ricketts. Since my season tickets worthless, I'll take the few good perqs they still offer.
Nice comeback win, only 6 back, it's not even June 1st, Holiday and Berkman hurt, Berkman will not continue at his pace, the reds will have pitching issues and wells will solidify our rotation with 4 solid starters (assuming Demp regains his form). Keep the faith boys.
I would like to see Reed Johnson play at least once or twice a week for Soriano though.
Heard Kasper talk about Cubs "trying too hard"....maybe..... some.....but Sorryano and "ARam the Indifferent" trying too hard....I can't see so much....later BB mentioned the latter giving up kinda early on a foul pop....that's our ARam.
Bruce, do you think the Cubs will/should take a flier on this guy? Or was his perfect game a fluke and he is really toast as he has looked? I can't imagine his contract is very big?
due to our pitching woes right now, but his perfect game was more of a lucky, "fluke" type situation.
Excellent Post Bruce! I think you are right on the money with your thoughts and hopefully, for the fan's sake, someone in the front office will take your suggestions to heart i.e. get rid of Crane Kenney and hire a baseball man (anybody besides Andy McPhail) to run the baseball operations.
we're going 2 boston...maybe we'll get lucky and a "perfect storm" will was out that series!
Bruce asks if firing Hendry is a good idea if it's Ricketts and Kenney doing the hiring of the next GM?
I didn't need a sec to think about it.
Of course not! They're not baseball people!
As I've said many times, Ricketts needs to hire outside baseball experts on a consultant basis and have them conduct a thorough search. That group narrows it down to a final three. And then to more intensive meetings. And you ID your guy. And it's all done on the QT. This is not an unusal thing in many industries.
Now, technically, Ricketts would be making the hire. He's the top dog, the sign-off guy.
But not really. He'd only be approving and ratifying what his team of baseball experts advised.
This is all a pretty basic, logical and common way to go. I'm not re-inventing any wheel here, not proposing anything unusual or radical.
I think it would have been better if we had a baseball guy as prez. The search would have emanated from him and within. But we don't have a baseball guy as prez, and there's no indication whatsoever Ricketts wants to displace Kenney, and we absolutely must get a better GM ASAP.
Having said that, there's no doubt in my mind Hendry is safe for the balance of this season. In-season GM changes are rare. Ricketts is conservative and heretofore has praised Hendry. Ricketts, not exactly rolling in revenue right now, would have to pony up for a lot more than Hendry's remaining contractual obligation, as several of Hendry's guys would move on and need to be replaced. But there's every reason for Ricketts to start the search process. P. S. I wrote all this as a plan of action for Ricketts a full year ago, and that followed my pleading for the new owner to upgrade his baseball operation as soon as he took over.
"Think about that for a sec" is another excuse for.......inaction!!!!
>> several of Hendry's guys would move on and need to be replaced. <<
I assume that's a reference to Wilken & Fleita.... If so, I don't see the big woof about their POSSIBLE departure. They're both part of this mess and whatever they've done (or haven't done) has contributed to the Cubs being as they are.
Where are they going to go so fast? Hendry's very unlikely to get another GM gig, so they'd be hard pressed to follow him wherever he goes.
Why would they leave just because Hendry's gone? Is it Hendry's country club, undemanding atmosphere that keeps them here? Wherever else they'd land Hendry wouldn't be there either and they'd have to produce just like they will here.
So I don't see how that whole "got the Cubs by the short hairs" scenario plays out that if one goes, they all follow.
Why???? Doesn't make sense.
Fletia's somewhat attached at the hip to Hendry. I don't really care if Fleita is gone in all honesty.
Wilken, on the other hand, would probably get offers to join other clubs as soon as he can be released from his contract. He's got a positive enough history and is well respected in baseball. I have some concerns on the loss of Wilken, but that isn't to say someone else couldn't do a good job.
I hope the beat writers do corner these guys and make them give an honest answer
The GM is always available. That's to his credit. Jim answers the questions whether he likes them or not. Ricketts will talk, but he'd just as soon not.
I so hate to do this but .... Rosie has it spot on too ... maybe the "Word According to Bruce" is getting around ....
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/rosenblog/chi-chicago-cubs-players-...
and god forbid any of you go to desipio.com it is by far the most irreverent, most profane, funniest stuff I've ever read anywhere.
Enjoyed a ginger ale with those boys at the Cubs convention.
Well said and right on the nose!! I am proud of you for your candor and know the vast majority of folks agree with me.
Ditto....
That wasn't so hard, was it?
I bet that you feel better now!
Truth needs no excuses.
...as we speak in the wake of this. Actually, I think they're getting ready to take batting practice in Florida. That is, if the daily afternoon rain doesn't wash it out.
I'd feel a lot better if Ricketts would have fired Hendry last season. To allow him to continue to make trades like the one he made this past offseason for Carlos Pena makes no sense if you're trying to get better by going younger. They lost 3 prospects in that deal.
Maybe you should check your transaction list.
They got Garza in that trade.
They signed Pena as a free agent with no compensation.
Thanks for pointing that out. Got my Rays mixed up :)
Bruce,
I enjoy your blog and the updates on the minors.
Everyone is firing managers and GM's and trading all the players without regard to the realities of doing so right now. What about Ricketts doing what you suggested long ago, and that is to hire a president who knows the game right now? Scheurholz, Gillick, or even Bowden. Have the new Pres evaluate everyone in the org for the rest of the year and then make whatever changes he feels necessary. Do it now and he could make some deals by the trading deadline. He can determine who fits into improving the organization and its performance and who doesn't.
We fans and you sportswriters can make trades in the papers everyday, but that will not help. A new Prez will!
Vito 23