Help with Hendry's to-do list
First, a couple of things before we commence to helping Jim Hendry plan his off-season. (He didn't ask me for the help, by the way.)
I fully expect the Cubs to pick up the $7 million option on pitcher Rich Harden today. Expect something this afternoon. The Cubs knew of Harden's health problems when they traded for him last July, and that's why he came relatively cheap in terms of what the Cubs had to give up.
Second, can it get any sillier than raising a fuss over somebody busting up a water pipe at Dodger Stadium? From what I hear, this is the fourth time this year something like that has happened at Dodger Stadium. No big deal. The Cubs pay the bill, and everybody moves on. And who cares who did it, just like who busted up Sammy's boom box?
OK, here's how I get started if I'm GM Hendry:
1. After I re-up Harden, I do what I can to re-sign free agent Ryan Dempster. Dempster probably can get $15 mil per year on the open market, but I'd bet he'd come to the Cubs for a little less, maybe $12 million to $13 million a year for four to five years.
2. I see what Kerry Wood wants. It seems to me the Cubs don't want to give Wood any more than a two-year deal or even on plus an option. If Wood wants three years, I believe the Cubs will wish him godspeed and move Carlos Marmol into the closer's role.
3. Say thank you and farewell to reliever Bob Howry and center fielder Jim Edmonds. Howry gave it his all, but it was pretty clear there wasn't much left in the tank. Part of it is age. And don't forget, our old pal Dusty went to Howry and Scott Eyre an awful lot during the miserable 2006 season. With Edmonds, the Cubs aren't going to want to repeat the Gary Gaetti mistake. Gaetti sparked the Cubs to the 1998 wild card, and then-GM Ed Lynch re-upped him for '99. Gaetti couldn't repeat the magic and was done.
4. Call your old friend Andy MacPhail and rekindle the Brian Roberts talk. Maybe Andy will take Jason Marquis, Rich Hill and maybe a couple minor-leaguers for a player he's going to lose anyway. But forget the details for a minute. The big thing is that the Cubs have to get Alfonso Soriano out of the leadoff spot and get him out of there now. Roberts would fit the bill nicely, as he's a switch hitter. He plays a good second base, and the Cubs can move Mark DeRosa to right and Kosuke Fukudome to center.
5. See No. 4. If that doesn't work, the Cubs still have to get Soriano out of the leadoff spot and bat him, say, sixth. If Hendry can't get Roberts, maybe the Cubs can go with a revolving 1-2 setup of Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Reed Johnson and DeRosa, with Theriot getting the bulk of the leadoff at-bats. His OBP of .387 was 61 percentage points better than last year's mark.
6. Bring back Henry Blanco. As I reported the other day, the Cubs probably will decline Blanco's $3 million option and then hope to re-sign him to a lesser deal. Blanco is almost like another coach on the team, especially when it comes to working with No. 1 catcher Geovany Soto. Blanco kept after Soto during the spring about keeping his weight in check and making sure his work habits were good.
7. Find out what CC Sabathia wants. I don't see this going anywhere, though, especially with the ownership situation still in flux.
Finally, thanks to friend-of-the-court Colin for inviting me to take part in a baseball roundtable:
http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2008/10/08/world-famous-statspeak-roundtable-oc...
We'll have plenty more as the off-season moves along.
Good list Bruce and I think you are on target with most of it.
The leadoff situation is certainly one that needs to be addressed as a priority. You can not go into a playoff (against good pitchers) with a leadoff hitter that can be as cold as ice for extended periods. it puts too much pressure on your other hitters and they try and do too much. Frankly, I am surprised it has taken the Cubs this long to address this issue. Roberts would be a good fit, but so would Furcal, because you can then upgrade your defense at SS. Either way, someone else will be leading off next year.
Hendry has painted himself in a corner with all the no-trade deals. I understand he can get the player to waive the clause, but if you don't get a deal done with one of the clubs the player would allow, you end up with a player that knows he isn't wanted. Despite Dempsters blow up in his first playoff start, he should be signed if he is asking for a dollar amount and years that are fair. A lefty with power would be nice, but with all of these backloaded deals, it is going to depend on how much money Hendry is going to have to spend. I would imagine, the prospective new owners may have to be involved in giving the ok, because they are bidding on financials that would change if expensive free agents are signed for the long term.
Lastly, whenever you have two consecutive poor playoff performances (with the same core club), it is not a bad idea to send a message to your team by trading one of your established players for a piece that fits better. Whether Hendry can do this is up in the air, but I do believe this team needs an element of leadership it does not posses today.
Abreu, Ibanez and Kevin Millar ? Yeah Adam Dunn would be just great 200 k's per year and is worse in the outfield than Daryl Ward. Thats just crazy.. Furcal wouldve been fine 3 years ago he is old and cant stay healthy so I wouldnt go there Colin.
Do you think Jim Hendry will be looking at Furcal as a lead-off option again if he can't land Roberts?
They still like Furcal. They probably got as much as anybody could wring out of Theriot. We'll see how they handle Theriot's situation, given the fact that he had a .387 OBP but is limited power wise and in the field.
In no special order:
(1) I agree with re-signing Ryan Dempster at the price point you mentioned. However, I'd go with 3 years plus a vesting option for the 4th.
(2) I think I'd give Kerry Wood a 2 year deal plus option, but I can see where you are coming from.
(3) Sign Rafael Furcal to play SS - he's a switch hitter, a great fielder, and won't take October off. He leads off and Soriano is dropped to the middle.
(4) Trade Ryan Theriot - I like the guy, but I am concerned about his defense and late season slump. His value is quite high coming off a near .390 OBP, so the Cubs could get a good prospect out of it if they sell high or be able to use him as bait to dump Jason Marquis or get another young pitcher if packaged with a veteran (see 5).
(5) Trade Derrek Lee - I know he has a no trade clause, but I think the right-handed power axis of Soriano, Ramirez and Lee needs to be broken up after another lost October. Also, Lee is either on his downside or hurting. He had the lowest OPS of any 1B in the NL Central in 2008 (Pujols, Berkman, Fielder, Votto, Adam LaRoche are all higher). And, I think Lee is the obvious choice to trade since Soriano's contract is absolutely unmovable and there is no in-house or free agent backfill at 3B to replace Aramis. One idea is to move Lee and Theriot to the Giants for Matt Cain or Jonathan Sanchez. Lee might waive his no trade clause for the Bay Area if he still lives in Sacramento. I'd let Micah Hoffpauir be the everyday 1B and sign a bench guy like Kevin Millar to play against a tough left-hander. This move would save the Cubs money for Furcal and (6).
(6) Sign Bobby Abreu to play RF.
(7) If the Cubs sign do an Abreu or Ibanez, they need to give some thought to moving Mark DeRosa as well. Coming off his best season, he has sky high value right now and only 1 year left on his deal. I think Mike Fontenot has earned an opportunity to play regularly. But DeRosa could be kept to play that super-utility role.
(8) Fukudome is moved to CF (platooning with Reed Johnson)
My lineup:
SS Furcal (S)
2B Fontenot (L)
3B Ramirez (R)
RF Abreu (L)
LF Soriano (R)
1B Hoffpauir (L)
C Soto (R)
CF Fukudome (L)
3 righties, 4 lefties and a switch hitter.
DeRosa and Johnson off the bench for their versatility.
Rotation:
Dempster
Zambrano
Lilly
Harden
Cain or Sanchez
Hoops
But I see a lot of errors in Ramirez's future if that comes to fruition.
I can see getting another 1B-man, but I'm not convinced Hoff is ready for prime time -- and he's not a good fielder.
...generally doesn't do things like toss a player like D-Lee overboard for a guy like Micah Hoffpauir. It certainly doesn't seem likely that they'd do it after leaving him off the playoff roster in favor of Daryle Ward and Felix Pie.
Merkle's Boner posting earlier ? Juan Peirre ? CC will comand 20 mil a year , far more than Dempster will.. This looks fun too bad I got to go back to work...Get your Bill James Handbook ready for Colin Bruce, check in later..
Bruce.....
How long has Hendry been in charge? We don't have anyone in our farm system ready to play? Look at the wasted picks (let's start with the Patterson's) and the horrible signings (Fukudome/Soriano/ 4 2/3 Harden/ etc....) The Cubs will draw 3 million no matter what and we all know that. What I can't believe is the pocket protectors in the ivory tower who sit back and watch Hendry eat up their profit line with bad drafts and worse free agent signings. Why sign Dempster when you can get CC Sabathia for the same money? Why did we let Juan Pierre go?? This guy gets 200 hits year after year...he steals bases and can play centerfield...he makes 5mill a year and we can get him back tommorrow...Pierre leads-off and we move Soriano down to 5...problem fixed.
Answer me this, if you can...Do you know of any MLB GM who has wasted draft picks and made such terrible free agent signings as Hendry and still is employeed as a GM? First the Twins then the Marlins and now, just possibly, the Tampa Bay Rays will win a championship before us with young players aquired through the draft and trades. Let's stop praising this guy and start making him accountable for the "things he has done and failed to do"!
The Giants have a horrible farm system and have made their fair share of bad free-agent signings (Barry Zito). Ned Colletti had one foot out the door in L.A. until the Red Sox dropped Manny on his lap. Kevin Towers doesn't have a whole lot to show for in San Diego.
I've got a pretty balanced record of criticizing Hendry on this blog and in the paper over the years. Just the other day, I pointed out that Fukudome could go down with Remlinger, Hawkins, Howry, Jacque Jones and others as poor free-agent signings. I also disagreed with Hendry's notion that you can compare Fukudome to Moises Alou, who had a bad first year. Alou had a proven track record of putting up MVP-caliber numbers in the majors. Fukudome doesn't.
Juan Pierre is terrible. He lost his starting job with the Dodgers. His on-base percentage is way too low, and he has no throwing arm. The Dodgers wasted $50 million on him, and the Cubs made a bad deal to acquire him. Pierre annually is among the league leaders in outs made, and since outs are the currency of baseball, he spends too many.
The Cubs farm system has produced Soto, Theriot, Wood, Marshall, Marmol and Zambrano to the good side and Pie (so far), Rich Hill on the bad among recent major leaguers.
Hendry used the farm system to obtain: Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Rich Harden.
His good free-agent signings included Mark DeRosa, the biggest bargain among veteran baseball players and Ted Lilly.
Sabathia will command way more money than Dempster, and let the buyer beware after the Brewers rode him hard down the stretch.
The Cubs have been to the postseason in back to back years for the first time in 100 years. That's the hardest thing to do, _ get there. After that, anything can happen as the Atlanta Braves of the past decade and a half will tell you.
Thanks for the great comments Bruce but....I have to disagree with you on Pierre..he is the prototype lead-off hitter in today's game that does not have many. One stat that should stick out is stolen bases. Pierre, in 119 games, stole 40 bases..the Cubs, as a team, stole 89 total.
Here is the value of that...a base stealer occupies the pitcher's mind (the obvious) but when that runner gets to second he can now help the hitter...just ask Clemens about it in the 2005 World Series with knuclkehead Pierszynski on second and Uribe at bat. Even more recently, watch what happen last night in the NLCS...Victorino on second and boom...Utley homers. It is old school, but it works! As for OBP...that is an acronym created by Billy Beane and we all know how successful his Oakland teams have been and how good his players are once thay have to play in front of "full second shelves" and no steroids (Tejada,Giambi, Swisher, Byrnes, Hudson, Mulder, Zito, etc...)
Hendry is going to go after Roberts and here is another stat that is a red flag...K'S. Roberts strikes out about 100 times per year....Pierre 35-40. They are the same age and more importantly...Pierre is a pure left side hitter. Pierre has played and played well in BIG games...we don't know what we'll get with Roberts. Lastly...look at the charecter of the player...Juan Pierre is a solid young man...can we say the same about Roberts?
Let Dempster and Woody go and sign CC....I still believe we have to trade Zambrano and Fukudome because of the distraction and attitude problem. Maybe to the Giants for Lincecum (who made only $405,000 last year)? Zambrano in alot of ways reminds me of the distraction Frank Thomas caused on the south side. Let Theriot alone...he is the perfect two hitter and his defense is solid. Simple solutions in our quest for the World Championship.
Making the playoffs two years in a row is great...winning the World Series is the objective. We have bounced and embarrassed both years and Hendry gets a free ride. His matter of fact attitude about the damage done to the club house in LA speaks volumes to me!
...take two players "we have to trade" in exchange for a Cy Young caliber pitcher making the league minimum?
And go Google yourself some Baltimore newspapers and you'll see that they all think that Brian Roberts has so much character that it would kill a lesser man. Seriously, if you took all of the grit, determination and leadership of Brian Roberts and injected them into some random bloke on a street corner, he'd spontaneously explode. Soooo much character.
First, OBP is not an acronym, nor was it invented by Billy Beane. OBP is an abbreviation for on-base percentage, which has been around since the beginning of baseball. In fact, Cap Anson had an OBP of .380 in 1876, and I got that out of a Total Baseball published in 1989, one year after Billy Beane went 1-for-6 with Detroit.
If you brought your assessment of Juan Pierre to a roundtable of serious statisticians, you'd be laughed out of the room. One journal states: "He's not useful if he doesn't hit .320. He's not a good center fielder and he has no power and no walks. He doesn't really do much to create runs."
Pierre was 40-for-52 in stolen bases this year, putting him at 76.9 percent, just barely _ barely _ above the level that makes the risk worth the reward.
His on-base percentage this year as .327 and his slugging percentage was .328, giving him an OPS of .655. To call that anemic would be an insult to anemia.
If you compare Pierre's VORP (value over replacement player) to that of Brian Roberts, you would see that Roberts ranked 22nd in major-league baseball this year with a VORP of 50.6. Pierre ranked 393rd, at 1.1, which means a replacement-level player could have done the same thing and for a lot less money than the Dodgers wasted on him. The Dodgers are so taken with Juan Pierre that they benched him, and they're sorry they ever signed him.
As far as being a good guy, Manny Ramirez will never win a prize for being a saint, but he helped the Red Sox to two world titles, and he helped get the Dodgers in the playoffs.
Strikeouts are highly overrated. They're really no different from any other out, and I'd rather have a guy strike out than hit into a double play.
As far as trading Zambrano and Fukudome to the Giants for Lincecum, that's absurd, too. First, you have to get past the no-trade clauses and then you'd have to have both teams want to make this trade. Neither one does.
As far as Hendry getting a "free pass," I don't even know what that means, but I suggest you take it up with his bosses, since they're the ones with the final say.
Sorry Bruce ...but on-base percentage IS an acronym!...Suggest a quick peek into the dictionary while your reading the baseball bible. The one thing Juan Pierre has is a RING and no...that is not an acronym. As for your VORP...did you consider Roberts played how many more games and how many more at bats then Pierre? Let's not forget Roberts did not play in one meaningful game after May 31st this year.
As for the good guy remark...well here is another acronym for you HGH. Manny was never mentioned in any of that....can we say the same about Roberts? Juan Pierre was 40-52 in stolen bases and played how many games? Pierre was tied for tenth with Roberts this year in stolen bases and played 35 less games! Please...if my lead-off hitter steals 40 bases and is caught 8 times...I'll take it.... that is a risk worth the reward! Strikeout overrated?!Stop it Bruce...Pierre puts the ball in play and uses his speed to force errors...when you K 100 times you do nothing for your team.
I have not read one story since the Cubs lost challenging Hendry for his top five payroll and middle of the pack result. Say what you want...you lose in the first round....you failed!
Go ahead and put the ball in play. Most fielders have a fielding percentage of at least .990, which means you're going to force an error one out of every 100 times. Not good enough. And I suggest you read some serious sabermetrics works on the value (or not) or strikeouts. Once again, the Dodgers are sorry they ever signed Pierre. And they benched him. Explain that one to me. The Cubs did not get a middle-of-the-pack result. They had the best record in the National League and had three bad games for the second straight year in the playoffs. It happens. Ask the Braves. I will comment on this topic no more. If you wish to continue trolling, be my guest. You will get no more responses. And OBP still is NOT an acronym. It's an abbreviation. Acronym is a word formed from the first letter of several words or a phrase: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/acronym
We seen how sorry the Dodgers were last night...2-3...a double and a run scored (on a play he forced with his speed!). Oh yeah...the Cubs played 3 more games then the Mariners...now that is a season to build off of!
K's are not overrated....if you strike out 100 times in a season what do you think your opponents are going to look at when scouting reports are submitted for the playoffs?...the hole in your swing! believable slider away sound familar?
Tell Hendry there are players that were meant to play in championship games because thay are good baseball players who are better human beings! Ever heard of positive energy? Huge payroll does not guarantee world championship.
I just wasted two minutes of my day reading your dribble.
Let's bat D-Lee second....I'm sure he's a helluva bunter...or maybe you call it dribbling.
It isn't an acronym, and you are annoying.
Read the definition and then mind your own business.
And, I'll comment on anything I so choose.
Appreciate the support, bucky and BearsCubs. I think it's time to review reader mlp's treatise on trolls. He posted it a few months ago, and I think it's instructive today. I've taken to ignoring the current troll's posts, and you can do the same. Here is what friend-of-the-court mlp said:
"As you can now see, acknowledging a troll's existence only makes it post more. A troll has fun only if it causes trouble and irritates legitimate posters. Don't give it the satisfaction of thinking it has succeeded; give it the silence its comments deserve.
"Not that the complete silent treatment from all other posters will necessarily make a troll go away. A troll loves nothing so much as the sound of its own voice: it frequently checks threads it has posted to, not only to look for angry reactions but also simply to re-read its own posts. Believe it or not, a troll considers its posts to be masterpieces of pith, logic, and wit, so it never gets tired of looking at them...Ergo, just ignoring a troll seldom makes it stop. But a lack of reaction does take away some of the raison d'etre for trolling.
"The only real solution to trolling is for each board to have a moderator who must approve a post before it appears on the board. Until the Daily Herald hires/assigns one, here's a simple alternative: first read the signature on a post, and if you know that poster is a troll (or an idiot) -- don't read what it posted!"
Amen.
Hey Bruce ,
You finally got a definiton correct. Very descriptive...wonder why? If you can't take observations and suggestions from a reader I suggest finding a new line of work.
That came across a few minutes ago. We'll talk with Hendry a little later today about it and have more.
Hopefully any shoulder issues he has are minor. Still, if I'm Hendry, I'm in the market for another quality starter, CC or no CC.
...Please...NO MORE priest, rabbi, minister, imam...whatever...sprinking God-knows-what in the dugout or anywhere in or around Wrigley. Crane Kenney should've been thrown out on is A$$ by now.
It seems all this crapola does is created a self-fulfilling prophecy - If you think you're cursed, then you're cursed.
..agree with the list. Especially the part about getting Soriano out of the lead off spot. Enough is ENOUGH.
Also, if D. Lee's power is still out early next year, I think you have to consider moving him out of the 3 hole. Maybe hit him 2nd or lower, but not 3rd.
And make sure Hoffpauir gets plenty of work at 1st.
We'll also bid adieu to Daryle Ward and look for that "left-hand" bat Lou wants. It might be that Micah Hoffpauir turns out to be an answer, and he deserves every shot. But another veteran, along the lines of a Raul Ibanez or a Bobby Abreu couldn't hurt. And maybe there's a way to kick those big tires on Adam Dunn.